The one thing
On Thursday Oracle sent a force majeure notice to the developer of Project Jupiter, Bloomberg reported. Jupiter is the ~2.5GW Stargate campus in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. The developer is STACK Infrastructure, which Blue Owl Capital owns. The notice would let Oracle delay lease payments if the campus misses its 2028 online date. The cause is fuel, not demand. The site is designed to run on Bloom Energy fuel cells burning natural gas, and the Energy Transfer pipeline that supplies the gas has slipped nearly six months, to 1 February 2027, after the New Mexico State Land Office repeatedly denied route permits. The air-quality permit decision is due 23 November. Oracle says Jupiter “remains on our planned schedule”. Blue Owl says the notice “does not change the financial commitments”. Oracle fell 3.47% to $139.54 on Thursday, touching $136.73 intraday, and another 1.75% to $137.10 on Friday.
The same campus has already come up once this week. Wednesday’s brief carried the FT report that about $18bn of loans on an Oracle-leased New Mexico data centre are quoted at 89–91 cents. The reports suggest this is Jupiter, but no source confirms it. Force majeure is how a tenant protects itself before lenders price the risk. Oracle is now doing that openly.
Demand, meanwhile, keeps getting written. After Thursday’s close, Akamai disclosed a seven-year, $11.6bn commitment from Anthropic for CPU workloads on Akamai Cloud. It comes with a warrant for up to about 5% of Akamai and about $5.5bn of capex that Akamai has to spend before the revenue arrives. The market’s reaction to both stories was the same: it believed the contract and doubted the delivery. Akamai opened about 15% higher on Friday and closed only 3.20% up.
The tape was calmer. After Wednesday’s spike, the 10-year held around 5.17–5.21%. The S&P 500 finished Thursday flat at 7,704.13 and gained 0.51% on Friday to 7,743.41, a weekly gain. Oil eased on talk of reopening the Strait of Hormuz: Brent settled at $104.32 and WTI at $92.41. The Trump–Xi state visit on Thursday produced no chip deal. USTR Greer said chip controls were not on the agenda of the preliminary talks.
Sector pulse: covered names with material news
Seven of fifty names had company news across the two sessions: Arm (SoftBank margin loan and CFO sale, ahead of a 7.9% fall), Oracle (force majeure), CoreWeave (JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight), Microsoft (Copilot “Autopilot” relaunch), Meta (Muse fee model confirmed), Dell (Morgan Stanley bull-case note), and Tesla (volume Semi deliveries). Akamai is not in the coverage universe. It sits in the Cloud section because Cloudflare competes with it and because the Anthropic deal lands in her Anthropic study’s deal register. Pure price moves are left out even when large: Cadence +4.18% Thu, Datadog +4.36% Fri, and Booking +4.15% and Airbnb +4.02% Fri, which are rebounds from this week’s agent-disruption sell-off.
Overnight & last session
Semis & equipment
Arm falls 7.9% in a day, the worst on the coverage list, with a $25bn SoftBank margin loan behind the stock
Arm closed Thursday at $306.34, −7.88% from $332.56. It recovered 1.30% to $310.32 on Friday. No single catalyst explains the fall. Coverage cites three things. First, the rate move: at more than 300 times trailing earnings, Arm is the most expensive long-duration name on the list. Second, the disclosure that SoftBank raised its Arm-backed margin loan to $25bn from $20bn on 18 September. Third, a CFO sale of 10,400 shares at about $300 on 21 September. Some write-ups also link it to Oracle’s Jupiter notice, which we think is a stretch.
The read: The margin loan is the part worth publishing, and it links two of her studies. SoftBank has pledged Arm shares to borrow $25bn, much of it to fund its OpenAI and Stargate commitments, and Stargate is exactly where Oracle just invoked force majeure. So one financing chain runs from Arm’s share price, to SoftBank’s loan-to-value, to the cash going into Stargate. Her SoftBank study is built from 24 XLSX datasheets and no SEC filings. It should show the Arm price at which the LTV covenant starts to bind. An 8% day on no news tells you how close the market thinks that level is.
The rest of the sector split. On Thursday, EDA and Intel rose: Cadence +4.18%, Synopsys +2.87%, Intel +3.91% to $127.39 (on analyst notes about agentic-AI CPU demand), AMD +2.38%. Intel gave most of it back on Friday, −3.45%. On Friday, equipment and analog led: Lam +2.61%, Texas Instruments +2.74%, Applied +2.27%, Qualcomm +3.97% to $201.97. Nvidia was flat over both days, ending Friday at $225.07. The Trump–Xi summit delivered nothing for it. Huang, Su and Cook sat at the state dinner, but Greer said chip controls were not on the agenda of the preliminary talks. Nvidia’s own 10-Q says it has made only “a fraction of the allowed” H200 shipments under the licences, under 1% of data-centre revenue, and it took a $0.4bn H200 charge in 1H FY27. Beijing is steering its buyers to domestic parts. Micron reports on Wednesday 30 September.
Cloud & AI infrastructure
Oracle issues a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter: ~2.5GW of Stargate capacity waits on a gas pipeline now due February 2027
Oracle is Jupiter’s main tenant, and the notice went to STACK Infrastructure, the Blue Owl-owned developer building the campus. Jupiter is a Stargate site for OpenAI, sized at ~2.5GW and targeted for 2028. The notice lets Oracle defer payments if the 2028 date slips. Reports say a force majeure finding could delay rent by up to three years. Oracle is not trying to exit, and says the project is on schedule. The trigger is fuel. The campus runs on Bloom Energy fuel cells, and the Energy Transfer gas pipeline has moved from a summer-2026 target to 1 February 2027 after the State Land Office denied route permits. The air-quality permit still needs a decision, due by 23 November 2026. Oracle opened about 4% lower, touched $136.73, and closed Thursday at $139.54 (−3.47%). It fell again on Friday to $137.10 (−1.75%), about 29% down this year. The fall was Oracle-specific. On Thursday CoreWeave rose, Snowflake slipped only about 1%, and the cloud ETF was flat.
The read: This is the first time a hyperscale tenant has formally reserved the right not to pay on schedule for AI capacity. That matters more than the delay itself. Her Oracle study already shows the gap between $28.5bn of gross quarterly capex and an $18.0bn net outlay, which means someone else’s balance sheet is carrying part of the build. Force majeure moves the timing risk of that build off Oracle and onto the lessor and its lenders, the same paper the FT had at 89–91 cents a week ago. The question to put in print is this: how much of Oracle’s $664bn RPO depends on capacity that is waiting on permits, pipes or turbines rather than on GPUs? Oracle does not disclose it. The 23 November air-quality decision is the next hard date, and it belongs on her calendar.
Anthropic commits $11.6bn over seven years to Akamai, the first big CPU-inference deal with an edge network
Akamai (not in the coverage universe) will supply Anthropic with cloud infrastructure and software for $11.6bn over seven years, aimed at Anthropic’s fast-growing CPU workloads. Akamai expects about $5.5bn of capex for the commitment ($1.7bn of it in 2026), spent before the revenue arrives, and left its full-year revenue guidance unchanged. Anthropic gets a warrant for non-voting convertible Series B preferred stock. It equals 7.7m common shares as converted, about 5% of Akamai, at a $111.33 exercise price. About 2% vests with the $11.6bn. The other ~3% vests at about 1% for each further $3bn, up to $9bn more, which would take the deal to about $20bn. Akamai had fallen 6.78% on Thursday to $110.41. It traded as high as ~$128–129 (+15–17%) on Friday morning, then faded to close at $113.94, +3.20% (one source: $113.87, +3.1%). JPMorgan raised its target to $167. Cloudflare rose 1.84% on Thursday but fell 2.73% to $349.02 on Friday.
The read: Two things matter for her work. First, the equity sweetener has now reached the supplier side. Her Cerebras and Marvell studies already record customer warrants booked against revenue, and here a vendor gives up to 5% of itself to win a buyer. Her Anthropic v2 deal register (18 deals, staged) needs a 19th row, and the warrant belongs in a column of its own. Second, the workload is CPU, not GPU. Agentic inference (tool calls, browsing, sandboxes) runs on general-purpose compute near the user, which is Cloudflare’s pitch too. For her Cloudflare study the test is simple: if the largest agent buyer is paying for distributed CPU, where is Cloudflare’s version of this contract? The Friday fade matters as well. The market is discounting deals that need $5.5bn of capex before the first dollar of revenue.
CoreWeave upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan on rising compute prices; Nebius raises GPU prices 17–21% from 1 October
JPMorgan moved CoreWeave to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target to $125 from $120. It cited stronger compute pricing and CoreWeave’s shift to shorter-term contracts at premium rates, which it says add 5–10 points to contribution margin on newer agreements. Peer Nebius announced its second price increase in three months, 17–21% across H100, H200, B200 and B300 capacity, effective 1 October. CoreWeave closed Thursday at $90.13 (+3.72%) and gave back 2.80% to $87.61 on Friday, after a Form 4 sale by CEO Mike Intrator and a Redburn Sell rating. The stock is still carrying the 35m-share ATM and the $4.2bn 2033 convertible it closed on 22 September.
The read: GPU rental prices are rising in the same week a hyperscaler invoked force majeure on a campus. Those two facts are consistent. Capacity that can be delivered now is scarce because capacity promised for 2028 is stuck on power. That is the neocloud bull case in one line, and it has a shelf life. For her CoreWeave study, split the backlog into short-term premium-priced contracts and long-term take-or-pay contracts. The margin upside JPMorgan describes sits only in the short-term part, and it reverses when delayed capacity like Jupiter finally switches on.
Microsoft jumps 3.7% to $516 on a Copilot relaunch built around agents
Microsoft relaunched Copilot with code-generation and agentic tools. The centrepiece is “Autopilot”, a revamped version of the Scout agent shown in June, which enters private preview at the end of the month. Oppenheimer raised its target to $570, citing customers standardising on Microsoft as their main enterprise AI platform. Stifel had upgraded the stock to Buy with a $575 target on 23 September. The shares closed at $516.17, +3.66%, after −0.53% on Thursday. Some Friday coverage mentioned the 8% dividend increase to $0.98 a quarter, but that was declared on 15 September and is not new.
The read: Microsoft is the only hyperscaler still funding capex from operating cash flow, and this week it was the one the market rewarded. It rose on Wednesday’s rate shock and again on Friday, while Oracle, the most externally financed, fell on both days. The spread between those two stocks is the market’s price for financing structure, and it can be charted. The Autopilot launch gives Microsoft a way to earn more per seat from its existing user base, not more capex per dollar of revenue. Oracle’s model depends on the opposite.
Amazon was flat on both days ($249.67), and Alphabet recovered 1.34% on Thursday to $342.36 and another 0.43% to $343.84 on Friday. Vertiv rose 3.25% to $253.28 on Friday, and GE Vernova was steady at $957.63. Neither reacted to Jupiter, even though the notice is a power story.
SaaS & enterprise software
No company disclosures. Datadog rose 4.36% to $268.13 on Friday, close to its 52-week high, while the software ETF fell. Some coverage credited a Wedbush Outperform initiation, but that note came out on 10 September, so this is momentum, not news. Security was weak on Friday: Palo Alto −3.89% to $374.74, HubSpot −3.53%, CrowdStrike −2.90%, MongoDB −2.60%. The only identifiable trigger was a sales-chief change at Zscaler (not covered), which fell about 3% pre-market. MongoDB holds its investor day on Tuesday.
Ads & adtech
Meta confirms how Muse makes money: a cut of transactions, not ads. Stock +4.5% Thursday, −3.3% Friday
Zuckerberg said Meta will earn from Muse by taking a small fee on what the agent buys. There will be no ads inside Muse. Each user’s agent runs in its own Muse Secure VM, an isolated cloud Linux machine, and pays with one-time virtual cards through Stripe Link. Shop Pay, PayPal, Expedia and Instacart are named partners, and a “Confidential VM” that Meta itself cannot read is promised. Meta rose 4.50% to $777.59 on Thursday, then fell 3.33% to $751.66 on Friday after Goldman struck a less optimistic tone and Wedbush and BMO reiterated Hold. The stock had risen about 32% in a month.
The read: This answers Wednesday’s open question and makes Meta’s model harder to value, not easier. A transaction fee turns Muse into a payments-and-commerce take-rate business. It competes with Booking’s and Shopify’s take rates, not with Google’s ad load, which is why those names moved together this week. It also makes Muse a heavy compute load: one persistent VM per user is a cost line that ads never had. For her Digital Ads study, the useful arithmetic is gross merchandise value per Muse user × take rate, set against VM cost per user. Meta’s Q2 free cash flow was about $0.8bn against a $130–145bn capex year, so there is little room for the VM cost to be wrong.
Netflix, The Trade Desk, Zeta and Roku: nothing disclosed; all moved less than 1% on both days.
Hardware & devices
Dell rebounds 5% on a Morgan Stanley note raising the odds of its $756 bull case
Dell closed Friday at $562.89, +5.01%, after falling 2.51% on Thursday to $536.02. Morgan Stanley (still Neutral, $511 target) raised the probability it attaches to its $756 bull case after meeting COO Jeff Clarke. The $999 Gemini XPS Googlebook, launched on 21 September, was cited in some coverage but is not new. The last print still sets the frame: FQ2’27 revenue $47.0bn (+58%), AI orders $60.9bn and backlog $95.0bn. Dell’s $1.75bn of notes mature on Thursday 1 October.
The read: A Gemini-based XPS is small in revenue terms but notable as strategy: Dell’s flagship consumer line is moving off Windows-first, on the same day Microsoft rallied on Copilot. For her Dell study (live), the useful point is that the stock is being re-rated on AI-server backlog conversion, and a Morgan Stanley meeting with the COO is the kind of signal that comes before a guidance change. Note it, but don’t rebuild the model on it.
Apple rose 1.53% to $341.07 on Friday. OpenAI said in a court filing that ChatGPT inside Apple Intelligence produced “far less” usage than expected. Cisco was unchanged.
Space & mobility
Tesla begins volume deliveries of the Semi, nine years after the reveal, and reiterates 50,000 a year
Tesla started volume Semi deliveries from its Nevada plant. PepsiCo, DHL, US Foods, ABF, Einride and WattEV were among the first customers. The long-range version is rated at up to 500 miles loaded, the standard version at 325. Tesla reiterated a 50,000-a-year capacity target, and the ZET SCALE alliance picked it as primary supplier for 2,500 trucks. The shares fell 0.57% on Thursday and 1.54% on Friday to $372.11. SpaceX was flat through the 24 September unlock of up to 328.4m shares: $148.03 on Thursday (−0.22%) and $148.67 on Friday.
The read: For her Tesla study, the Semi’s first real effect is on the depreciation line, not revenue. Remember the XBRL trap: the cash-flow D&A line is not in company-facts. A 50,000-unit plant has to show up in capex and depreciation before it shows up in revenue. The SpaceX non-event may be the bigger finding. The float absorbed 328m shares without moving, which says demand for the float is deeper than the lock-up schedule implied. The next test is 9 October.
Full-year capex guidance across the build-out
| Company | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Amazon AMZN · CY2026 | ~$220bn |
| Alphabet GOOGL · CY2026 | $195–205bn |
| Microsoft MSFT · CY2026 | ~$175bn |
| Meta META · CY2026 | $130–145bn |
| Oracle ORCL · FY2027 | $90–95bn |
| TSMC TSM · CY2026 | $60–64bn |
| CoreWeave CRWV · CY2026 | $35–39bn |
| Micron MU · FY26, net | ~$27bn |
| Intel INTC · CY2026, gross | >$20bn |
Where each name stands
This is a standing table. The last-print column and key figures change only when a name discloses something; otherwise they are carried forward. New today marks rows with company news, or a move of 3% or more on Thursday or Friday. Prices are Friday 25 September closes, with Thursday’s move in brackets where it matters. Where we have no figure, the cell is blank.
| Name | Last print | Key figures from it |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | ||
| ARM | 18–21 Sep · SoftBank / Form 4 | New today. SoftBank’s Arm-backed margin loan raised to $25bn from $20bn (18 Sep); CFO sold 10,400 shares at ~$300 (21 Sep). AGI CPU outlook $1bn, CEO “more confident” of $2bn. Closed 24 Sep $306.34, −7.88%; 25 Sep $310.32, +1.30% |
| QCOM | 22–23 Sep · Summit | New today (price only). Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and Extreme Gen 6, both TSMC 2nm; 9 OEMs, devices 4Q26. Snapdragon X2 Plus in Microsoft’s new Surface Pro/Laptop. Amazon warrant 25m shares at $161.26. Closed 25 Sep $201.97, +3.97% (24 Sep −1.51%) |
| INTC | 15–16 Sep · reports | New today (price only). Altera confidential IPO filing (Intel 49%). Q2’26 rev $16.13bn +25.4%; 2026 capex >$20bn gross. Closed 25 Sep $123.00, −3.45% (24 Sep +3.91% to $127.39) |
| CDNS | — | New today (price only). Closed 25 Sep $326.13, +1.28% (24 Sep +4.18%) |
| SNPS | — | Closed 25 Sep $425.76, +0.20% (24 Sep +2.87%) |
| NVDA | 3 Sep · Hugging Face | $12.93bn Hugging Face acquisition, close 1H27. FQ2’27 rev $96.2bn +106%; data centre $89.0bn; FQ3 guide $108.0bn ±2%. Only token H200 shipments to China (10-Q); summit brought no change. Closed 25 Sep $225.07, +0.22% |
| AVGO | 18 Sep · 424B3 | Exchange offer, $654m 4.926% notes due 2037 (expires 19 Oct). FQ3’26 rev $29.591bn +85.5%; AI semis $16.7bn; FQ4 guide ~$34.8bn. Closed 25 Sep $352.81 |
| MU | 24 Jun · FQ3’26 | Rev $41,456m, +346% y/y; non-GAAP GM 84.9%; FQ4 guide $50.0bn ±$1.0bn at ~86% GM. Closed 25 Sep $1,082.28. FQ4 + FY2026 on 30 Sep (company-confirmed) |
| AMD | 17 Sep · Nebius pricing | Above $1trn market cap. Call only: FY2027 data-centre revenue ~$70bn. Closed 25 Sep $630.59 (24 Sep +2.38%) |
| TSM | 10 Sep · Aug monthly | NT$514,806m, +53.3% y/y; Jan–Aug +39.3%. 3Q26 guide $44.6–45.8bn; 2026 capex $60–64bn. ADR closed 25 Sep $450.61; Taiwan market shut 25 Sep for a holiday (2330.TW NT$2,475 on 24 Sep). Sep sales 8 Oct, 02:30 BRT; 3Q26 results 15 Oct |
| MRVL | 27 Aug · FQ2’27 | Rev $2.739bn +37%; data centre $2.171bn; FQ3 guide ~$3.15bn. Investor day 6 Oct. Closed 25 Sep $261.94 |
| LRCX | 16 Sep · India plan | INR 10,000 crore India plant. Call only: CY2026 WFE “low $150bns”. Closed 25 Sep $315.17, +2.61% |
| AMAT | 8 Sep · Citi TMT | Rolling eight-quarter customer forecasts up every quarter. Closed 25 Sep $485.00, +2.27% |
| TXN | 17 Sep · 8-K | Dividend $1.42 → $1.52 (+7%). Closed 25 Sep $278.07, +2.74% |
| KLAC | 22 Sep · DEF 14A | Annual meeting 4 Nov. Call only: CY2026 WFE mid-$150bns. Closed 25 Sep $187.92 |
| ASML | 8 Sep · releases | High-NA EUV collaborations with Samsung and Intel Foundry. Closed 25 Sep $1,743.94. Q3 14 Oct (data-provider date) |
| Cloud & AI infrastructure | ||
| ORCL | 24 Sep · force majeure | New today. Notice to STACK Infrastructure (Blue Owl) on Project Jupiter (~2.5GW Stargate, NM; 2028 target); gas pipeline slipped to 1 Feb 2027; air-quality permit decision by 23 Nov. ~$18bn of NM data-centre loans at 89–91c (FT, 18 Sep). FQ1’27: rev $19.3bn +30%; OCI $7.4bn +121%; RPO $664bn; capex $28.5bn vs $18.0bn net outlay. FY27 guide ≥$90bn revenue. Closed 25 Sep $137.10, −1.75% (24 Sep −3.47%) |
| CRWV | 24 Sep · JPM upgrade | New today. JPMorgan Overweight, target $125 (from $120); newer contracts +5–10pt contribution margin. $4.2bn 2.875% convert due 2033 closed 22 Sep. Q2’26 rev $2,575m +112%; backlog $104.2bn; CY2026 capex $35–39bn. Closed 25 Sep $87.61, −2.80% (24 Sep +3.72% to $90.13) |
| MSFT | 25 Sep · Copilot | New today. Copilot relaunch; “Autopilot” agent private preview end-Sep. Oppenheimer target $570; Stifel Buy $575 (23 Sep). Dividend $0.98 (+8%, declared 15 Sep). FY2026 revenue >$331bn +18%; Azure >$100bn +41%. CY2026 capex ~$175bn. Closed 25 Sep $516.17, +3.66% |
| NET | 9 Sep · product | Competitor Akamai signed $11.6bn Anthropic CPU deal (24 Sep). Closed 25 Sep $349.02, −2.73% (24 Sep +1.84%). Q3 ~29 Oct (aggregator) |
| VRT | 2 Sep · M&A | New today (price only). UtilityInnovation Group, ~$1.45bn + up to $1.15bn earnout. Closed 25 Sep $253.28, +3.25% |
| GOOGL | 24 Sep · reports | Gemini 4 in post-training, before year-end (reported). Q2’26 cloud +82%, FCF −$5.9bn. 2026 capex $195–205bn; $84.75bn equity raised in June. Closed 25 Sep $343.84 (24 Sep +1.34%) |
| AMZN | 24 Sep · product | Seller tools opened to Claude (beta). Q2’26 net sales $200.6bn +20%, AWS $42.2bn +37%. 2026 capex ~$220bn. Closed 25 Sep $249.67 |
| GEV | 16 Sep · MS conference | Backlog $176bn at Q2; $200bn possible early 2027. Closed 25 Sep $957.63 |
| SaaS & enterprise software | ||
| DDOG | 10 Sep · Wedbush | New today (price only). Wedbush initiation, Outperform, target $275 (10 Sep). Q2’26 rev ~$1.12bn +36%. Closed 25 Sep $268.13, +4.36% |
| PANW | 1 Sep · FQ4/FY26 | New today (price only). Q4 rev $3.41bn +34%; NGS ARR $9.10bn +63%; FY27 guide $14.10–14.20bn. Closed 25 Sep $374.74, −3.89% |
| HUBS | — | New today (price only). Closed 25 Sep $213.74, −3.53% |
| CRWD | 14 Sep · Fal.Con | FQ3 guide $1.523–1.529bn; Google Cloud partnership. Closed 25 Sep $252.13, −2.90% |
| MDB | 1 Sep · FQ2’27 | Rev ~$688m +30%. Investor day Tue 29 Sep. Closed 25 Sep $410.44, −2.60% |
| NOW | 22 Jul · Q2’26 | Subscription growth 24–25%; AI ACV $1bn. Closed 25 Sep $135.62 (24 Sep −2.13%) |
| CRM | 16 Sep · investor day | FY2030 revenue >$63bn incl. Informatica. Closed 25 Sep $234.02 |
| ADBE | 22 Sep · 10-Q | Q3 rev $6.76bn; RPO ~$22.16bn; FY guide $26.576–26.626bn. Closed 25 Sep $235.47 |
| SNOW | 2 Sep · FQ2’27 | Product revenue $1.49bn +37%; FY outlook ~$6.07bn. Closed 25 Sep $335.94 |
| WDAY | Sep · reports | Reported Silver Lake take-private talks; $4bn buyback. Closed 25 Sep $189.45 |
| SAP | 8 Sep · press | Closed 25 Sep $210.68 |
| Ads & adtech | ||
| META | 23–25 Sep · Connect | New today. Muse monetised by transaction fee, no ads; per-user Muse Secure VM; Stripe Link virtual cards. VR Glasses $1,299 (spring 2027); Ray-Ban Meta Audio $349 ships 13 Oct. Goldman cautious; Wedbush, BMO Hold. Q2’26 rev $60.801bn +28%; 2026 capex $130–145bn. Closed 25 Sep $751.66, −3.33% (24 Sep +4.50% to $777.59) |
| NFLX | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | Wells Fargo Underweight, $57. Closed 25 Sep $71.15. Q3 20 Oct, 17:01 BRT (company-confirmed) |
| TTD | 18 Sep · DEF 14A | Special meeting 19 Oct on option repricing (up to 15,582,540 shares). Closed 25 Sep $12.60 |
| ZETA | 8–9 Sep · conferences | 2025 NRR 120%. Closed 25 Sep $29.45 |
| ROKU | 17 Sep · 425 | DOJ Second Request on $22bn Fox deal. Closed 25 Sep $152.68 |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | ||
| BKNG | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | New today (price only). Rebound from the agent-disruption sell-off. Closed 25 Sep $163.95, +4.15%; 52-week low $150.14 |
| ABNB | 8 Sep · session | New today (price only). Q2’26 revenue $3.6bn +17%. Closed 25 Sep $157.47, +4.02% |
| SHOP | 21 Sep · Meta tie-up | Muse checkout via Shop Pay, now confirmed as a named payment rail. Closed 25 Sep $142.25, −2.00% (24 Sep +1.98%) |
| WMT | 16 Sep · Form 25 | Debt-series delisting. Closed 25 Sep $107.98 (24 Sep −2.66%) |
| UBER | 21 Sep · NYSE CERT | Sold 29,369,611 Aurora shares at $6.205 (17 Sep). Closed 25 Sep $69.62 |
| Hardware & devices | ||
| DELL | 25 Sep · MS note | New today. Morgan Stanley raised odds of $756 bull case (Neutral, $511 target kept); $999 XPS Googlebook launched 21 Sep. FQ2’27 rev $47.0bn +58%; AI orders $60.9bn; backlog $95.0bn. $1.75bn notes due 1 Oct. Closed 25 Sep $562.89, +5.01% (24 Sep −2.51%) |
| AAPL | 18 Sep · launch | iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max on sale; iPhone Duo pre-orders 16 Oct. OpenAI filing: ChatGPT-in-Apple-Intelligence usage well below expectations. Closed 25 Sep $341.07, +1.53% |
| CSCO | 9 Sep | Middle East AI partnership with AMD reported. Closed 25 Sep $106.70 |
| Space & mobility | ||
| TSLA | 24–25 Sep · Semi | New today. Volume Semi deliveries from Nevada; 50,000/yr target; ZET SCALE 2,500-truck order. Roadster reveal 1 Oct. Q2’26 rev $28.24bn; FCF −$1.09bn. Closed 25 Sep $372.11, −1.54% |
| SPCX | 24 Sep · unlock | Up to 328.4m shares unlocked 24 Sep, stock flat ($148.03, −0.22%). Next tranches 9 and 24 Oct, 8 Dec. COO Form 144 ~$52m. Revenue (ttm) $23.04bn; net income −$8.89bn. Closed 25 Sep $148.67 |
On the calendar
- Mon 28 Sep, 09:15 BRTStarship Flight 14, NET (08:15 EDT), pending regulatory approval.
- Tue 29 SepMongoDB investor day, New York. OpenAI DevDay, San Francisco.
- Wed 30 Sep, 17:30 BRTMicron fiscal fourth quarter and full fiscal 2026 (company-confirmed). Guide $50.0bn ±$1.0bn at ~86% gross margin. End of September: Microsoft’s Autopilot private preview.
- Thu 1 OctDell’s $1.75bn of notes mature. Nebius’s 17–21% GPU price rise takes effect. Korea September exports around this date.
- Thu 1 Oct, 22:30 BRTTesla Roadster reveal, Waco (20:30 CDT). Tesla 3Q deliveries usually follow in the first days of October.
- Tue 6 OctMarvell investor day.
- Thu 8 Oct, 02:30 BRTTSMC September monthly sales (13:30 Taipei). Completes 3Q26 against the $44.6–45.8bn guide.
- Fri 9 OctNext SpaceX lock-up tranche.
- Tue 13 OctMeta Ray-Ban Audio ships. Workday analyst day (aggregator, unconfirmed).
- Wed 14 OctASML third quarter, per data providers; not yet on ASML’s calendar.
- Thu 15 OctTSMC third-quarter 2026 results (company calendar).
- Mon 19 Oct, 17:00 BRTTrade Desk special meeting on the option repricing. Broadcom’s note exchange offer expires.
- Tue 20 Oct, 17:01 BRTNetflix third quarter (company-confirmed). Texas Instruments the same day, aggregator date.
- 21–22 Oct (est.)Lam Research FQ1’27; Intel third quarter. Aggregator dates only.
- 25–28 OctOracle AI World, Las Vegas. Expect Jupiter questions.
- 28–29 Oct (est.)Megacap cluster (Meta, Microsoft, ServiceNow, KLA, Cloudflare, Apple, possibly Alphabet). All aggregator estimates, none company-announced. Meta’s is the first print that could show Muse fees.
- Sun 1 NovUS daylight saving ends. From Monday 2 November the US open moves to 11:30 BRT.
- Mon 23 NovOutside the window but worth tracking: New Mexico air-quality permit decision deadline for Project Jupiter.
Only Micron (30 Sep), TSMC (15 Oct) and Netflix (20 Oct) are company-confirmed earnings dates in this window. Everything marked (est.) is an aggregator date, and most will be confirmed in early-to-mid October.
Story worth owning
The binding constraint is molecules, not chips: pricing the part of AI backlogs that is waiting on power
Three facts from this week point the same way, and no one has put them side by side. Oracle is protecting itself against a 2028 slip at a ~2.5GW campus because a gas pipeline moved to February 2027. Nebius and CoreWeave are raising GPU rental prices by double digits, because capacity you can switch on today is scarce. And Anthropic paid Akamai partly in equity-linked terms for distributed CPU, meaning capacity that already exists in powered buildings.
The analysis nobody independent has published: sort the build-out’s contracted backlog by what it is waiting on. Use four buckets: delivered and running, waiting on GPUs, waiting on buildings, and waiting on power and fuel. The testable claim is that the fourth bucket is now the largest for the lessor-financed names, meaning Oracle’s leased Stargate sites and CoreWeave’s third-party campuses, and small for the self-funded hyperscalers. If so, “RPO” and “backlog” are not comparable across companies, because they carry different amounts of infrastructure risk. Her US Energy Atlas (EIA-860M pipeline, staged) already holds the generation-queue data. Her Data Center Atlas, Oracle and CoreWeave studies hold the site lists. Joining the two would make the first public map of which AI backlog sits behind which gas line or interconnect queue. Project Jupiter, and its 23 November permit date, is the worked example.
Sources
- Oracle sends force majeure notice on its New Mexico Stargate data center, TechCrunch, 24 Sep 2026
- Oracle issues ‘force majeure’ notice to developer of New Mexico data center over energy delays, SiliconANGLE, 24 Sep 2026
- Oracle stock falls on news it sent data center ‘force majeure’ notice, CNBC, 24 Sep 2026
- Oracle Stock Dips As It Issues Force Majeure Notice on Project Jupiter, Motley Fool, 24 Sep 2026
- Oracle cites force majeure over New Mexico data centre, Bloomberg reports, The Next Web, 24 Sep 2026
- Oracle Drops 6% as Selloff Runs Ahead of the Cloud Group, 24/7 Wall St., 24 Sep 2026
- Akamai Announces $11.6 Billion Multi-year Agreement with Anthropic, Akamai Investor Relations, 24 Sep 2026
- Anthropic to pay Akamai $11.6 billion over seven years in cloud deal, TechCrunch, 25 Sep 2026
- Akamai inks $11.6bn Anthropic deal, issues warrant and Series B preferred, GuruFocus, 25 Sep 2026
- Akamai Surges 15% on $11.6B Anthropic Cloud Deal, 24/7 Wall St., 25 Sep 2026
- Nebius Surges 6%, CoreWeave Treads Water as JPMorgan Upgrade Flags Rising Compute Pricing, 24/7 Wall St., 24 Sep 2026
- Microsoft Stock Jumps 4% After Revamping Copilot, Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, 25 Sep 2026
- Microsoft Climbs as Oppenheimer Lifts Target to $570, 24/7 Wall St., 25 Sep 2026
- Microsoft announces quarterly dividend increase, Microsoft, 15 Sep 2026
- Arm Holdings Stock Fell 8% in a Day: SoftBank’s $25 Billion Loan, TIKR, Sep 2026
- Arm Holdings stock falls 7.88 percent, ad-hoc-news, 24 Sep 2026
- Meta Muse AI agent will earn from transaction fees, not ads, MediaNama, Sep 2026
- Zuckerberg says Muse AI agent will take a small fee from transactions, Yahoo Finance, 23 Sep 2026
- Meta Slides 4% as Retracement Follows 32% Monthly Run, 24/7 Wall St., 25 Sep 2026
- Why is Meta Platforms stock sliding today?, Investing.com, 25 Sep 2026
- Why Is Dell Stock Surging on Friday?, Benzinga, 25 Sep 2026
- Dell Stock Jumps as Gemini Enters the XPS Franchise, GuruFocus, 25 Sep 2026
- Tesla Semi finally enters volume production, Electrek, 25 Sep 2026
- Tesla commences Semi deliveries, reaffirms 50,000 annual output target, Seeking Alpha, 25 Sep 2026
- The Nvidia H200 China deal survived the Trump–Xi summit, AI News, Sep 2026
- China’s AI chip blitz arms Xi with a message for Trump, CNBC, 24 Sep 2026
- Top Tech News Today, September 24, 2026, Tech Startups, 24 Sep 2026
- Datadog Climbs 6%, Approaches 52-Week High, 24/7 Wall St., 25 Sep 2026
- Intel Stock Jumps 3.9%, MarketBeat, 24 Sep 2026
- Stock Market Today (Sept. 24, 2026): Dow Falls, S&P 500 Flat, VistaP Global, 24 Sep 2026
- How major US stock indexes fared Thursday 9/24/2026, AP via ABC News, 24 Sep 2026
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq notch weekly wins, Yahoo Finance, 25 Sep 2026
- Morning Preview: September 25, 2026, Investrade, 25 Sep 2026
- US 10-Year Treasury yield, Trading Economics, accessed 25 Sep 2026
- Costco Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Operating Results, Costco (GlobeNewswire), 24 Sep 2026
- Nvidia Form 10-Q, quarter ended 26 July 2026 (H200 licence shipments), SEC EDGAR, Aug 2026
- Oracle sends force majeure notice to Project Jupiter developers, Santa Fe New Mexican, Sep 2026
- NM Supreme Court lifts stay on Project Jupiter permit, KRWG, 18 Sep 2026
- Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 25, 2026, Advisor Perspectives, 25 Sep 2026
- Akamai press release: $11.6bn agreement with Anthropic, Akamai newsroom, 24 Sep 2026
- Daily closing prices (history pages) for all covered names and AKAM, stockanalysis.com, 24–25 Sep 2026
A separate fact-check pass ran over this brief before publication; see the note at the end of this footer. Otherwise, figures are as reported by the sources listed and have not been independently verified against filings except where a company release is cited directly. Prices are last-sale closes from a single vendor and may differ from official exchange prints. Guidance figures come largely from earnings-call statements, and capex definitions are not comparable across companies. Third-party figures, such as Muse download counts, loan quotes, analyst targets and unconfirmed calendar dates, are flagged as such.
Off-universe note for the Costco study: Costco reported FQ4 and FY2026 on 24 September (net sales $93.9bn, +11.2%; EPS $6.75 including a $0.15 IEEPA tariff-refund benefit; FY net sales $297.2bn). That trips the FY2026 gate on her staged Costco study.
This is an internal research brief prepared for CoreValue Research. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and no part of it should be relied on as such.
Scheduled for 25 September 2026, 07:00 BRT; generated about 20:10 BRT (late run) · coverage universe read from coverage.json (50 names, updated 2026-09-01).
Fact-check. A separate agent checked 16 claim groups against second sources. It found three errors, all corrected above: H200 shipments, the Dell catalyst, and the date of the Datadog initiation. It also found a wrong 10-year range, now corrected. It confirmed Costco against the IR release, Akamai’s terms against its release, and the Oracle/Jupiter facts, Arm, Meta’s Muse model, Microsoft, the index closes, Tesla Semi and the calendar dates, except the exact day of TSMC’s September sales print.
