The one thing
Friday priced the AI build-out as a credit problem; Monday morning the sell side is pricing it as an entry point, and neither has new information about cash flow. On Friday the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell −3.83% to 11,137.29, its eighth straight decline, and −11.4% on the week, its worst week since spring 2025 (Reuters says March, CNN April). The levered names fell hardest: CoreWeave −11.91% to $61.39 (about −25% on the week, CNN), Nebius −12.18%, Applied Digital −11.48%, IREN −11.19%, Cerebras −10.52%, Super Micro −9.86%, DigitalOcean −9.85%; Oracle −4.64% to $128.23. No company disclosed anything. CNN put it on rising borrowing costs for the debt-funded end of the boom, with Brent touching $110; DA Davidson’s Gil Luria called the neoclouds “the subprime tranche of the AI trade” (CNN). Goldman’s traders reported the second-highest put volume on record, the largest net selling of information technology on their records back to 2016, AI credit spreads and hyperscaler spreads “at the widest levels of the year”, and the view that “AI Capex has likely peaked” (CNBC live blog, relaying the desk note). BofA’s Sebastian Raedler said consensus hyperscaler capex has tripled to $1tn and that past capex cycles mostly ended in disappointment (24/7 Wall St.).
This morning goes the other way. Goldman’s Gabriela Borges upgraded CoreWeave to Buy from Neutral and cut her target to $106 from $139; she expects the blended cost of debt to rise 100–200bp and argues the delayed-draw term loans are asset-backed project financings, not corporate debt (CNBC, 08:45 ET). JPMorgan’s Harlan Sur raised Intel to Neutral with an $85 target, below Friday’s $89.85 close (Yahoo, 06:48 ET). Pre-market, CoreWeave was +6% (CNBC, 08:45 ET); TipRanks at 06:45 ET had Nebius +5.2% and IREN +4.4%; Reuters had the iShares semiconductor ETF +3.6%, Marvell +4.7%, Sandisk +4.3%, Intel +4.2%, Micron +3.6%, AMD and Broadcom +3.5%, Nvidia +1.9%. The one piece of real news over the weekend cuts against the bounce: the Telegraph reports Microsoft has pulled out as anchor tenant of Nscale’s planned site at Loughton, Essex, where the grid connection may not arrive until the 2030s; Nscale says it remains committed and the relationship with Microsoft is strong; Microsoft has not commented (Yahoo relay, 18 Oct). Microsoft and Anthropic are about 85% of Nscale’s contracts, and Nscale’s IPO filing, the source of that figure, seeks up to $3bn, potentially as early as October.
Macro. Friday: S&P 500 −1.09% to 7,659.44, Nasdaq −2.15% to 26,140.03, Dow −0.34%; on the week the S&P fell about 2% and the Nasdaq about 4.5%, the worst weeks since June, and the VIX closed above 20 (CNN). September industrial production rose 0.7% (consensus 0.4%), capacity utilisation 76.9% (Yahoo/RTT). Correction to Friday’s brief: the preliminary October Michigan reading was published on 9 October (46.3 vs 47.8 expected), not on Friday; the final is this Friday. The 10-year closed at 5.085% (CNBC; Yahoo’s mid-session print was 5.10%) and was about 5.085% this morning. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 28 October hike at about 16% and of a December hike at about 92% (FXEmpire, 04:08 ET); the Fed is in its blackout. Oil is lower after President Trump halted planned Russia sanctions, Brent about $108 (CNBC). Futures at 08:48 ET: S&P +0.43%, Nasdaq-100 +1.23% (Yahoo). Asia: Kospi opened 3.17% lower and closed +1.76% at 5,768.01 on institutional buying; TAIEX −0.61%, TSMC unchanged at NT$2,420; Nikkei −0.62%, SoftBank −2.00%.
Sector pulse: covered names with material news or a >5% move
Forty-five of 100 listed names, up from 23 on Thursday, and most of them are Friday moves of more than 5% with no disclosure. Company news or analyst actions since Friday’s brief: CoreWeave (Goldman upgrade), Intel (JPMorgan upgrade), Broadcom (exchange offer expires today), Samsung and SK hynix (Seoul reversal), Micron (Taoyuan union rally), Microsoft (Nscale, per the Telegraph), Amazon and AEP (Indiana SMR agreement; Morgan Stanley top pick), Datadog (Bernstein), Palo Alto (CISA-listed PAN-OS flaw), Trade Desk (option-repricing vote today), Super Micro (new CFO), Apple (iPhone Duo pre-orders), Rocket Lab (target cuts), SpaceX (Q3 date), PDD (Texas settlement), Uber (London suit dismissed), Anthropic, OpenAI. Counted for Friday moves of more than 5%: AMD, Micron, Intel, Marvell, KLA, Arm, SK hynix ADR, Sandisk, Western Digital, IonQ, Cerebras; Ciena, Coherent, Lumentum, Astera; Nebius, IREN, Applied Digital, TeraWulf, DigitalOcean, Cloudflare; Bloom; Snowflake, MongoDB, Datadog, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Palantir, Fortinet, Zscaler; Zeta; HPE. Not counted: Credo −4.93%, Lam −4.87%, Applied Materials −4.82%, Shopify −4.84%, Dell −4.58%, Broadcom −4.52% (counted for the exchange offer instead).
Overnight & last session
Semis & equipment
The SOX falls an eighth straight day and 11.4% on the week, its longest losing run since 2008; this morning JPMorgan lifts Intel to Neutral and the group is up 2–5% pre-market
The index closed −3.83% at 11,137.29 (fnnews), its longest losing run since 2008 (24/7 Wall St.), and is still up 57.2% for the year (Reuters). Cerebras −10.52% to $127.21, IonQ −8.94% (IonQ priced a $2.0bn equity sale to a single buyer on 14 October), Arm −6.94%, Western Digital −6.86%, Sandisk −6.85%, SK hynix’s US listing −6.58%, AMD −5.95% to $528.75, Intel −5.79%, Micron −5.63% to $878.84, Marvell −5.56%, KLA −5.00%, Lam −4.87%, Applied Materials −4.82%, Broadcom −4.52%; Nvidia held up at −1.43%, the TSMC ADR −2.28%. The causes cited are the ones above plus Chinese competition (CXMT’s 4F² DDR5 server module, targeted for year-end). This morning JPMorgan’s Harlan Sur moved Intel to Neutral from Underweight, keeping an $85 target: the stock is down about 36% from its June peak, execution under Lip-Bu Tan has improved, risk/reward is “more balanced”; he still expects CPU share loss (Yahoo); TradingKey adds that he puts external foundry revenue below $1bn annualised in 1H26. Yahoo’s description of a Tesla 14A commitment as “separately disclosed” repeats Tesla’s 22 April call, not a new filing. A Seoul Economic Daily report relayed by TipRanks says Nvidia has asked Micron, SK hynix and Samsung to make the base dies for its next custom HBM on TSMC 3nm; no company has confirmed it. Broadcom’s exchange offer for its 4.926% notes due 2037 ($654.0m outstanding) expires today at 17:00 ET; Broadcom says it does not currently intend to extend it (424B3).
The read: For our Intel study, an upgrade with a target below the last price is a valuation call that the stock has fallen far enough, not a change in the foundry thesis; Sur’s own number (external foundry under $1bn annualised) is the one to carry, and it is the figure 29 October has to move. For Micron, Sandisk and Western Digital, a 6–7% Friday fall on no memory-price news, after TrendForce’s 30 September call for DRAM contract prices +10–15% q/q in 4Q26, is the market discounting the 2028 oversupply column, not the current quarter; Western Digital’s print on Thursday (guide $4.1bn ±$0.1bn) is the first hard number against it.
Seoul opens 3.2% down and closes 1.8% up on institutional buying; chipmakers lag the rebound; Micron’s Taoyuan union rallies in Taipei today over a 15%-of-profit demand
The Kospi fell to 5,488.41 at the open and closed +1.76% at 5,768.01, led by batteries and autos; Samsung +1.16% to ₩218,000 and SK hynix +0.39% to ₩1,277,000, after weekly falls of 17.8% and 24.3%; the won closed at 1,330.3, its strongest since October 2024 (Korea JoongAng Daily, Korea Times, Edaily). Institutions bought and foreigners sold, but the two outlets disagree on size (see the box below). Edaily cites concern over a possible US listing of SK hynix’s NAND unit Solidigm. Taipei: TAIEX −0.61% to 46,822.08 after falling more than 940 points intraday; TSMC unchanged at NT$2,420, which Concord Securities suspects was state-fund buying; MediaTek −1.06%; Nanya −2.57%, Winbond −3.72%; foreigners net sold NT$76.74bn (Focus Taiwan). Micron’s Taoyuan union asked members to take today off for a rally on Ketagalan Boulevard over a demand for 15% of operating profit as profit-sharing; it says this is not a strike, but the chair has said a surprise strike is possible; Micron’s separate Taichung union goes to mediation on 22 October (TrendForce, The Star). No reports of turnout yet.
The read: For our Samsung and SK hynix studies, the useful fact is who bought: domestic institutions, with foreigners still net sellers, which is the opposite of last Friday’s rebound. The 27 and 28 October prints remain the test. For Micron, the Taoyuan dispute is small in dollars but it is the first labour claim in the industry framed as a share of AI-cycle profit; if a 15% profit-share sticks in Taiwan it becomes a cost line in every memory margin model we run.
Networking & optical
No company news; the optical names fell again. Coherent −7.06% to $232.90, Ciena −6.67%, Astera −5.35%, Lumentum −5.22% to $824.13, Credo −4.93%, Arista −4.63% to $176.98, Cisco −2.24%. 24/7 Wall St. found no company releases behind the week’s fall and calls it rotation. From the 9 October closes the optical five are now down roughly a quarter in five sessions with no change in disclosed backlog. Arista and Astera report Tue 3 Nov; Coherent and Lumentum have not set dates.
Hyperscalers & neoclouds
CoreWeave −11.9% to $61.39, about −25% on the week; Goldman upgrades to Buy this morning and cuts its target to $106; the Telegraph: Microsoft walks away from an Nscale site in Essex
CoreWeave closed −11.91% at $61.39, Nebius −12.18% at $165.47, Applied Digital −11.48%, IREN −11.19% at $26.99, DigitalOcean −9.85%, TeraWulf −7.45%, Cloudflare −6.33%. CNBC’s Friday reading has CoreWeave’s five-year CDS above 1,000bp, up nearly 19% on the week, about 60% implied five-year default probability (Bloomberg data), with the 2031 notes (9.75% coupon) back to about 14.5% after nearly 16% earlier in the week; the record remains Thursday’s ~1,195bp. No new rating action from S&P or Moody’s was found. JPMorgan cut Applied Digital’s project-finance bonds to Neutral this week, citing supply overhang (24/7 Wall St.); Morningstar cut its CoreWeave and IREN fair values (Stocktwits via Yahoo). This morning Goldman’s Gabriela Borges upgraded CoreWeave to Buy with a $106 target from $139: she expects the blended cost of debt to rise 100–200bp but treats the delayed-draw term loans as asset-backed project financings rather than corporate debt (CNBC); CNBC cites LSEG: 31 of 45 analysts at Buy (MarketBeat counts 25 of 35). Pre-market: CoreWeave +6% (CNBC, 08:45 ET), Nebius +5.2% and IREN +4.4% (TipRanks, 06:45 ET). Nscale. The Telegraph reports Microsoft has pulled out as anchor tenant of Nscale’s planned Loughton, Essex data centre, where the grid connection may not come until the 2030s; Nscale’s Norway site is running 6.4 of 30 MW, about six months late; Nscale says it remains committed and the Microsoft relationship is strong; Microsoft has not commented (Yahoo relay). A newsletter relay of the same story says ~23,000 Nvidia GPUs were involved; that figure is single-source. Oracle closed −4.64% at $128.23; its last reported five-year CDS is Thursday’s record 288bp; Startup Fortune, relaying the FT, says the $18bn Project Jupiter loans trade around 90c.
The read: For our CoreWeave study, Goldman’s argument is the one to engage with, because it is the bull case stated as a credit claim: if the delayed-draw loans are project financings secured on GPUs and on named contracts, the equity is not exposed to a corporate default spiral, only to the recovery on each project. The Nscale story is the first public test of what such a project is worth when the anchor tenant leaves before the power arrives. For our Nscale study that is a direct hit: Microsoft is one of two customers holding about 85% of contracts, and the IPO filing seeks up to $3bn; any amendment or prospectus update will have to address the Loughton site, the Microsoft contract and the Norway delay, and we should have the questions written before it lands. For Microsoft, walking from a lease is cheap optionality in a week when its own bond spreads are at the year’s widest; it is also the clearest signal yet that the hyperscalers will not carry the neoclouds’ power risk.
Also. Microsoft −1.93% to $529.05, Alphabet −2.47%, Amazon −1.87% to $250.00 on Friday. This morning Morgan Stanley named Amazon a top pick on AWS acceleration and Bedrock (CNBC pre-market, +1%). AEP, X-energy and Amazon announced a joint development agreement for a proposed 960 MW, 12-unit Xe-100 small modular reactor plant at the former Breed station site in Sullivan County, Indiana; feasibility-stage, a final investment decision is still required (AEP release, PR Newswire, 19 Oct). Alibaba −1.82%; SoftBank −2.00% to ¥4,845 in Tokyo. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wed 28 Oct, Amazon Thu 29 Oct (call 17:00 ET, company-confirmed).
Power & data-centre infrastructure
Utilities held; the build-out suppliers did not. AEP +2.29%, Dominion +1.11%, NextEra +1.06%, Digital Realty +0.86%; Bloom −6.34% to $221.31, Vertiv −3.88%, Eaton −2.79%, nVent −2.54%, Constellation −1.32%, GE Vernova −0.57%. AEP’s SMR agreement with X-energy and Amazon (above) adds to its 14 October Wyoming fuel-cell project with Bloom (~$4bn, 702 MW, 20-year PPA with Google). Deals pending: Vistra’s Cogentrix acquisition is not closed (FERC approved in August, 10-Q says late 2026, no HSR clearance announced); Eaton’s Dana mobility transaction is not closed (EU cleared 9 Oct, closing expected 1Q27). NextEra reports Wed 21 Oct pre-market (webcast 09:00 ET), Bloom Thu 22 Oct after the close (call 17:00 ET). For our Bloom study, Thursday is the first call since Oracle’s CDS hit a record; the Jupiter financing question stands.
SaaS & enterprise software
Thursday’s rotation into application software reverses: Snowflake −8.4%, MongoDB −7.9%, Palo Alto −7.6%, Palantir −7.2%, Datadog −7.2%; Bernstein lifts Datadog this morning
The data and security names that consume compute fell hardest: Snowflake −8.43% to $306.84 (TIKR finds no company catalyst), MongoDB −7.89%, Palo Alto −7.63% to $342.00, Palantir −7.22% to $186.03 (fifth straight fall, about 11% below the 9 October record), Datadog −7.19%, CrowdStrike −7.02%, Fortinet −7.03%, Zscaler −5.92%. Thursday’s winners gave back part of it: ServiceNow −4.44%, HubSpot −3.34%, Adobe −2.57%, Salesforce −2.45%, Intuit −1.52%; Roper flat, SAP −0.32%. Yahoo’s Friday piece ties the security sell-off to AI-financing worry. Palo Alto separately has a PAN-OS flaw (CVE-2026-0322, root code execution via the management interface, CVSS 8.6) published 14 October, added to CISA’s known-exploited list with a 17 October federal patch deadline (CSO Online, Security Affairs); no source links it to the move. This morning Datadog was +3% pre-market on a Bernstein call (CNBC, 07:56 ET). SAP reports Wed 21 Oct after the US close; ServiceNow and Fortinet Wed 28 Oct.
The read: For our SaaS sector study, Thursday’s thesis (application vendors are the only part of the chain whose revenue does not depend on a GPU buyer’s cost of capital) held for one day. The split worth recording is that consumption-priced names (Snowflake, MongoDB, Datadog) fell with the infrastructure trade while seat-priced names (Salesforce, Adobe, Intuit) fell less than half as much: the market is treating consumption revenue as AI-capex revenue. For Palo Alto, a CISA-listed flaw in the management plane is a disclosure item for the next 10-Q, not a revenue item, and should not be written up as the cause of the fall.
Ads & adtech
Trade Desk votes today on repricing underwater options; Meta reports Wednesday. Trade Desk’s special meeting is today at 16:00 ET (13:00 PT), virtual: a one-time repricing of underwater options under the 2025 plan covering up to 15,582,540 shares (current strikes $3.69–$122.59), new strike equal to today’s close; Jeff Green is eligible for 1,618,489 non-performance options, his performance options excluded; directors excluded (DEF 14A, 18 Sep). TTD closed −6.85% at $12.23 on Friday. Zeta −5.19% despite Goldman’s upgrade to Buy ($45 from $30) before Friday’s open (Investing.com); Meta −3.72% to $709.33, AppLovin −4.71%, Netflix −2.86%, Reddit −2.02%, Roku flat. Netflix reports Tue 20 Oct (16:01 ET, interview 16:45 ET); Meta Wed 21 Oct after the close (call 16:30 ET). For our Trade Desk coverage, repricing at a $12 strike resets the incentive for the people who ran the stock from $122 to here; the vote count and the share of options repriced are the governance numbers to publish tomorrow.
Consumer platforms & commerce
Quiet; two legal items. PDD settled with the Texas attorney general on 16 October: a $3m payment, Texas user data on US servers, and an $8m penalty for any year in which the data-security provisions are violated (Texas AG, MarketScreener). Uber won dismissal of the £250m London black-cab drivers’ suit (Bloomberg, 19 Oct). Friday moves were small: Shopify −4.84%, DoorDash −2.02%, Booking −1.42%, Costco +1.13%, Walmart +0.80%, Marriott +0.61%.
Hardware & devices
Super Micro −9.9% on a CFO change; HPE −6.0%, a third day. Super Micro closed at $31.63 after naming Mark Long, formerly of Western Digital, as CFO in place of David Weigand (MarketBeat). HPE −5.97% to $55.13 and Dell −4.58% to $451.71, the third session after Barclays’ downgrades; HPE was down about 20% on the week. Apple +0.43% to $343.46; iPhone Duo pre-orders opened Friday at 08:00 ET (Apple Newsroom); MacRumors reports availability on 23 October from $1,999, which Apple’s release does not state. For our Super Micro work, a CFO change at a company with its accounting history is a filing-quality question first; the next 10-Q is the first signed by the new CFO.
Space & mobility
SpaceX reports tomorrow; Rocket Lab falls an eighth day. SpaceX’s investor-relations release (16 Oct) sets Q3 results for Tue 20 Oct after the close, audio webcast 16:30 ET; this is its second quarterly report as a listed company. About 328.4m shares become eligible for sale in the Day-135 lock-up tranche around 24 October, a Saturday, so the first trading day affected is likely Mon 26 Oct (third-party sources, not the prospectus). SPCX −1.74% to $146.03. Rocket Lab −7.98% to $50.84 after Citizens cut its target to $90 from $130 and KeyBanc to $100 from $135 following the Neutron delay to 2027 (MarketBeat, 24/7 Wall St.). Tesla −2.13% to $354.72 ahead of Q3 on Wed 21 Oct (webcast 17:30 ET; Q3 deliveries 486,532). For our SpaceX study, tomorrow’s print lands five days before the largest lock-up release so far; the AI segment (xAI) loss and its capex are the numbers that decide how much of that supply the market absorbs.
Private labs
Anthropic: a 5% public-benefit share pledge and a reported Blackstone financing; OpenAI: the Alfozan hearing today. CNBC (Sun 18 Oct, 18:55 ET) reports Anthropic plans to commit 5% of its shares to a Public Benefit Fund, subject to shareholder approval. Digitimes (19 Oct) reports Anthropic is offering Blackstone a total return above 10% to finance a $60bn chip package; paywalled and single-source. EDGAR full-text search shows no Anthropic S-1 or F-1 through today; Yahoo/Quartz report a roadshow targeted for the week of 9 November. CNBC’s live blog says the reported $16.8bn third quarter “raised flags among investors about the pace of growth” of the build-out. OpenAI: the detention hearing for Alfozan is today before Magistrate Judge Tse (CNBC, Fortune, 14 Oct), no outcome yet; Altman confirmed a humanoid-robot project with a demo expected in 2027 (Engadget). For our Anthropic study, a 10%-plus total return to a private-credit lender on chip financing would be the first priced cost of capital for the lab itself, and it would sit well above Oracle’s bond yields; we should not quote it until a second outlet does.
Full-year capex guidance across the build-out
| Company | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Amazon AMZN · CY2026 | ~$220bn |
| Alphabet GOOGL · CY2026 | $195–205bn |
| Microsoft MSFT · CY2026 | ~$175bn |
| Meta META · CY2026 | $130–145bn |
| Oracle ORCL · FY2027 | $90–95bn |
| TSMC TSM · CY2026, reiterated 15 Oct | $60–64bn |
| Micron MU · FY27, net, implied | >$50bn |
| CoreWeave CRWV · CY2026 | $35–39bn |
| Intel INTC · CY2026, gross | >$20bn |
Where each name stands
This is a standing table. Last-print dates and key figures change only when a name discloses something; otherwise they are carried forward. New today marks rows with company news or analyst actions since Friday’s brief. US prices are Friday 16 October closes from Yahoo Finance chart data; Seoul, Taipei and Tokyo prices are Monday 19 October closes; Frankfurt is Monday at ~08:43 ET. Where we have no figure, the cell is blank.
| Name | Last print | Key figures from it |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | ||
| NVDA | 19 Oct · HBM base-die report | New today. Seoul Economic Daily via TipRanks: Nvidia asked Micron, SK hynix, Samsung for custom-HBM base dies on TSMC 3nm (unconfirmed). Telegraph: Microsoft left an Nscale UK site (newsletter relay: ~23,000 Nvidia GPUs, single-source). +1.9% pre-market (Reuters). Huang to Bloomberg in Stockholm: CoreWeave does not need a backstop (paraphrase), its “strength is improving every day”, “their cost of capital is actually decreasing”; Nvidia owns ~10% of CRWV. Huang to Bloomberg: would “hypothetically” cut off unsafe buyers. IDC (13 Oct): 34% of China DC accelerators 1H26. FQ2’27 rev $96.2bn +106%; FQ3 guide $108.0bn ±2%. FQ3 results est. 17 Nov. Closed 16 Oct $214.13, −1.43% |
| AVGO | 19 Oct · exchange offer expiry | New today. Exchange offer for 4.926% 2037 notes ($654.0m outstanding) expires today 17:00 ET; no current intent to extend (424B3). +3.5% pre-market (Reuters). “Capital” the biggest constraint; FT: $60bn Anthropic chip-lease package, $42bn backed by Broadcom; WSJ: >$50bn OpenAI financing. Exchange offer expires 19 Oct. FQ3’26 rev $29.591bn +85.5%; FQ4 guide ~$34.8bn. Closed 16 Oct $328.75, −4.52% |
| AMD | 6 Oct · record close | Su: supply to “substantially increase” in 2027. World Labs ~$8.2bn all-stock. Q3 on 3 Nov. Closed 16 Oct $528.75, −5.95% |
| QCOM | 13 Oct · Arm verdict | First 5G cross-licence with Huawei; terms undisclosed. Closed 16 Oct $172.11, −3.53% |
| MU | 19 Oct · Taoyuan rally | New today. Taoyuan union rally in Taipei today over a 15%-of-operating-profit demand; not a strike; separate Taichung union mediation 22 Oct. +3.6% pre-market (Reuters). Barclays’ Dell note treats memory price as the pass-through driver of server revenue. Rosenblatt: CXMT sell-off “overblown”. New driver: 2029 oversupply column (Maeil); Counterpoint: DRAM −23% in 2028 vs 2027, still +230% vs 2025, LTAs damp the cycle. Taoyuan union rally 19 Oct. FQ4’26: rev $54.23bn +379%; non-GAAP GM 87.0%; FQ1 guide $61.5bn ±$1.5bn. 1H FY27 capex ~$25bn, 2H higher. Closed 16 Oct $878.84, −5.63% |
| INTC | 19 Oct · JPMorgan upgrade | New today. JPMorgan (Sur) to Neutral from Underweight, target $85; external foundry revenue <$1bn annualised 1H26 (TradingKey); stock ~36% off June peak (Yahoo). +4.2% pre-market (Reuters). “Capital and the cost of capital”; ROI the longer-run test. N2; IDM insourcing considered in its capacity plan. 2026 capex >$20bn gross. Q3 Thu 29 Oct after the close, call 17:00 ET. Closed 16 Oct $89.85, −5.79% |
| TXN | 17 Sep · 8-K | Dividend $1.52 (+7%). Q3 Wed 21 Oct, call 16:30 ET. Closed 16 Oct $276.48, −0.95% |
| MRVL | 13 Oct · OCP working group | Investor day (6 Oct): FY2028 rev ~$20bn; FY2031 $70–90bn. FQ3 guide ~$3.15bn. Closed 16 Oct $227.83, −5.56% |
| AMAT | 13 Oct · investor breakfast | 2030 targets: adj. GM ~54%, adj. OM ~40%, services >$12bn; no revenue target. Closed 16 Oct $409.29, −4.82% |
| KLAC | 1 Oct · date set | FQ1’27 Wed 28 Oct after the close, call 17:00 ET. Call only: CY2026 WFE mid-$150bns. Closed 16 Oct $165.74, −5.00% |
| LRCX | 16 Sep · India plan | FQ1 Wed 21 Oct after the close, call 17:00 ET (aggregators). First CY2027 WFE framing of the season. Closed 16 Oct $263.94, −4.87% |
| ASML | 14 Oct · Q3 results | Sales €11,662m (record), GM 57.5%, net income €4,960m incl. ~€500m Mistral gain; Q4 guide €14.2–15.2bn, GM ~57%; FY26 €44–45bn. 2027–28 supply “will not fully meet demand.” Closed 16 Oct $1,641.52, −0.96% |
| ARM | 13 Oct · Qualcomm verdict | Jury found Arm breached the Qualcomm ALA and interfered with Qualcomm–Meta; FQ2 results Wed 4 Nov after the close, call 17:00 ET (company). Closed 16 Oct $227.80, −6.94% |
| TSM | 15–16 Oct · post-results | Investing.com: investors weighed N2 margin dilution and capex over the beat. Figures from the 15 Oct release: Rev NT$1,494.24bn / US$46.72bn (+41.2%); NI NT$763.06bn (+68.7%); EPS NT$29.43 / US$4.60 ADR; GM 66.4%, OM 58.7%; N2 8%, N3 33%, N5 28%; HPC 68%; capex US$13.8bn; FCF NT$476.6bn; Q4 guide $52.3–54.3bn, GM 65–67%, OM 56.5–58.5%; 2026 capex $60–64bn reiterated; 2026 growth ~44%; overseas dilution ~2% 2026, 3–4% later; “prudent” into 2027; own teams inspect US DC power; Arizona fab 2 volume 3Q27; dividend NT$7.00. 2330.TW NT$2,420 unchanged 19 Oct. ADR: Closed 16 Oct $412.61, −2.28% |
| CDNS | Closed 16 Oct $319.51, −1.50% | |
| SNPS | 1 Oct · AWS licence | AWS multi-year licence >$1bn. FY27 guide $11.10–11.20bn. Closed 16 Oct $454.63, −2.88% |
| ADI | Closed 16 Oct $395.44, −2.11% | |
| NXPI | Closed 16 Oct $229.33, −0.76% | |
| ON | Closed 16 Oct $72.02, −2.28% | |
| IFNNY | 16 Oct · Frankfurt session | Quiet period; FY results 10 Nov. IFX.DE: Last 19 Oct ~08:43 ET €53.21, +1.57% |
| MPWR | Closed 16 Oct $1,210.86, −3.07% | |
| 2454.TW | 8 Oct · Sep sales | Sep NT$55,399m +1.97%; 3Q26 ~NT$168.1bn vs guide NT$152.2–159.8bn. Results ~30 Oct. Closed 19 Oct NT$4,205, −1.06% |
| 005930.KS | 19 Oct · Seoul reversal | New today. Kospi opened −3.17%, closed +1.76% at 5,768.01 on institutional buying; Samsung −17.8% last week. Results Thu 29 Oct (Wed 28 Oct 21:00 ET). Prelim 3Q26 op. profit KRW 107.4tn. Targets 4F² DRAM by 2028. Closed 19 Oct ₩218,000, +1.16% |
| SKHY | 19 Oct · Seoul reversal | New today. 000660.KS +0.39% to ₩1,277,000 after −24.3% last week; Edaily: Solidigm US-listing concern. ADR +4.1% pre-market (TipRanks). SK Securities: “the right time to buy memory stocks”. Reuters: seeking US equipment export approval to China for a new plant (headline). Results Wed 28 Oct 09:00 KST = Tue 27 Oct 20:00 ET (company 6-K). US listing: Closed 16 Oct $136.49, −6.58% |
| SNDK | 19 Oct · Goldman | New today. Goldman reiterates Buy, $2,200 (TradingKey). +4.3% pre-market (Reuters). FQ1’27 results Thu 29 Oct after the close, call 16:30 ET (company). Closed 16 Oct $1,299.30, −6.85% |
| WDC | 14 Oct · memory sell-off | FQ1 results Thu 22 Oct after the close (Nasdaq listing). Closed 16 Oct $332.00, −6.86% |
| IONQ | 14 Oct · $2.0bn equity sale | New today. $2.0bn equity sale to a single buyer priced 14 Oct. Closed 16 Oct $31.28, −8.94% |
| CBRS | 14 Oct · session | Below the $185 IPO price. Closed 16 Oct $127.21, −10.52% |
| Networking & optical | ||
| CSCO | 9 Sep | Closed 16 Oct $107.39, −2.24% |
| ANET | 15 Oct · session | MarketBeat: ~$740.8m of insider sales over three months incl. CEO Ullal; Defense World: under 10b5-1 plans; no disclosure. Q3 Tue 3 Nov after the close. Closed 16 Oct $176.98, −4.63% |
| CIEN | 14 Oct · optical sell-off | FQ3 rev $1.67bn; FY guide $6.42bn ±$50m. Closed 16 Oct $332.73, −6.67% |
| COHR | 14 Oct · optical sell-off | Yahoo lists a Neutral-rated target cut to $297 from $345 on 15 Oct (firm not shown). Bernstein Outperform, $350 (1 Oct). Results early Nov (not yet announced). Closed 16 Oct $232.90, −7.06% |
| LITE | 14 Oct · optical sell-off | CEO (9 Oct): sold out through early 2029. Current-quarter guide $1.225–1.275bn. Closed 16 Oct $824.13, −5.22% |
| CRDO | 14 Oct · optical sell-off | Closed 16 Oct $169.70, −4.93% |
| ALAB | 14 Oct · optical sell-off | Aries 7 launched; results 3 Nov. Closed 16 Oct $285.82, −5.35% |
| Hyperscalers & neoclouds | ||
| AMZN | 19 Oct · SMR deal; MS top pick | New today. JDA with AEP and X-energy for a proposed 960 MW, 12-unit Xe-100 SMR plant, Sullivan County, Indiana. Morgan Stanley top pick. Q3 Thu 29 Oct, call 17:00 ET (company). Decart talks (~$7bn, WSJ) unconfirmed. Q2’26 net sales $200.6bn +20%, AWS $42.2bn +37%. 2026 capex ~$220bn. Q3 est. 29 Oct (unconfirmed). Closed 16 Oct $250.00, −1.87% |
| MSFT | 18 Oct · Nscale (Telegraph) | New today. Telegraph: pulled out as anchor tenant of Nscale’s Loughton, Essex site (grid connection may slip to the 2030s); Microsoft no comment. Maia 300 on TSMC N2P from 2027. FY2026 revenue >$331bn; Azure >$100bn +41%. CY2026 capex ~$175bn. FQ1’27 Wed 28 Oct after the close. Closed 16 Oct $529.05, −1.93% |
| GOOGL | 13 Oct · Gemini 4 Argon GA | Gemini 4 Argon GA. 3,590 MW with Constellation. 2026 capex $195–205bn. Q3 Wed 28 Oct, call 16:30 ET. Closed 16 Oct $340.59, −2.47% |
| ORCL | 16 Oct · session | New today. Startup Fortune (FT relay): $18bn Project Jupiter loans ~90c. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid: a downgrade from BBB “would risk pressuring IG-only investors into forced sales”. WSJ (14 Oct): OpenAI compute chief Katti leaves 15 Nov. 6.25% Nov-2032 notes at 7.24% YTM (CNBC); 5-yr CDS 288bp from 260bp (S&P GMI via TradingKey); BBB- (S&P, 9 Jul; FY27 FOCF deficit ~$42bn), Moody’s negative. Project Jupiter proposals 13 Oct. FQ1’27 capex $28.5bn; RPO $664bn; FY27 capex $90–95bn. Closed 16 Oct $128.23, −4.64% |
| NET | 29 Sep · Birthday Week | Closed 16 Oct $296.30, −6.33% |
| CRWV | 19 Oct · Goldman upgrade | New today. Goldman (Borges) to Buy from Neutral, target $106 from $139; blended cost of debt +100–200bp; DDTLs treated as asset-backed project finance (CNBC). +6% pre-market (CNBC, 08:45 ET). Fri: CDS >1,000bp, ~+19% on the week; 2031s ~14.5% (CNBC). ~−25% on the week (CNN). Five-year CDS as high as 1,194.5bp intraday (ICE via Bloomberg; >60% implied five-year default probability), last ~1,038bp (CNBC); 9.75% 2031s 15.78% YTM. Huang (Stockholm): no backstop needed, cost of capital “actually decreasing”. Deutsche Bank: backlog >$100bn, ~two-thirds investment-grade counterparties; reiterates Buy. Evercore ISI desk: market saying “no mas” to AI debt without operating cash flow. FactSet forward debt/equity 667:1 (CNBC). Debt and obligations >$51bn (CNBC). 2032s <80c (Bloomberg); CDS >1,000bp (S&P GMI via TradingKey); B+ at S&P. Intrator memo: market “misunderstands and acts irrationally”; backlog “more than supports all of our debt obligations.” Gartner: >80% of neoclouds cease independent operations by 2030. Debt ~$35bn (~$52bn with leases); backlog $104.2bn; CY2026 capex $35–39bn; Sep converts $4.2bn + 35m-share ATM. Q3 in November. Closed 16 Oct $61.39, −11.91% |
| NBIS | 19 Oct · pre-market | New today. +5.2% pre-market (TipRanks, 06:45 ET). DA Davidson’s Luria: “same thing to the same companies and almost no financial leverage”. D&A 44% of last quarter’s $584m revenue (Invezz). Closed 16 Oct $165.47, −12.18% |
| IREN | 16 Oct · Morningstar cut | New today. Morningstar cut fair value. +4.4% pre-market (TipRanks). Anthropic contract (The Information) still unconfirmed. Closed 16 Oct $26.99, −11.19% |
| APLD | 16 Oct · JPMorgan on bonds | New today. JPMorgan cut its project-finance bonds to Neutral; debt $6.4bn (24/7 Wall St.). Closed 16 Oct $18.05, −11.48% |
| WULF | 14 Oct · session | Closed 16 Oct $11.68, −7.45% |
| DOCN | 14 Oct · session | Closed 16 Oct $98.69, −9.85% |
| BABA | Closed 16 Oct $109.11, −1.82% | |
| SFTBY | 16 Oct · Tokyo session | OpenAI stake; $4.5bn 9.75% high-yield (Sep). 9984.T: Closed 19 Oct ¥4,845, −2.00% |
| Power & data-centre infrastructure | ||
| GEV | 14 Oct · Susquehanna | Target cut to $1,270 from $1,300 (Investing.com); back below $1,000. Backlog $176bn at Q2. Q3 28 Oct. Closed 16 Oct $921.20, −0.57% |
| VRT | 14 Oct · date set | Closed 16 Oct $206.42, −3.88% |
| CEG | 6 Oct · Google deal | Google-deal rally fully given back. Closed 16 Oct $271.37, −1.32% |
| NEE | Closed 16 Oct $79.80, +1.06% | |
| D | Closed 16 Oct $63.56, +1.11% | |
| AEP | 19 Oct · SMR agreement | New today. JDA with X-energy and Amazon: proposed 960 MW Xe-100 SMR plant at former Breed site, Indiana (AEP release; feasibility stage). 14 Oct: ~$4bn, 702 MW Bloom fuel-cell plant, Wyoming, 20-yr PPA with Google. Closed 16 Oct $127.14, +2.29% |
| BE | 14 Oct · session | Roth $260 (Investing.com). Q3 Thu 22 Oct after the close, call 17:00 ET (company release, 12 Oct). Closed 16 Oct $221.31, −6.34% |
| NVT | Closed 16 Oct $142.03, −2.54% | |
| VST | 14 Oct · session | Cogentrix not closed (FERC Aug; HSR not announced). DOE conditional loan ~$4.2bn (5 Oct). Q3 6 Nov (Investing.com). Closed 16 Oct $152.02, −1.39% |
| ETN | Dana mobility deal not closed: EU cleared 9 Oct; close 1Q27. Q3 3 Nov (listing). Closed 16 Oct $391.25, −2.79% | |
| EQIX | Closed 16 Oct $985.98, −1.03% | |
| DLR | Closed 16 Oct $175.97, +0.86% | |
| SaaS & enterprise software | ||
| CRM | 15 Oct · rotation | Q3 est. late Nov/early Dec. Closed 16 Oct $240.70, −2.45% |
| ADBE | 22 Sep · 10-Q | Closed 16 Oct $245.20, −2.57% |
| NOW | 14–15 Oct · Decagon denial | Amit Zavery (president/COO, 14 Oct): “aware of misinformation… about our acquisition strategy”, “no interest or intention of purchasing Decagon” (24/7 Wall St.); StockStory ties the afternoon move to the EmployeeWorks no-code agent release. Q3 Wed 28 Oct after the close, call 17:00 ET. Closed 16 Oct $141.97, −4.44% |
| SNOW | 29 Sep · converts | Closed 16 Oct $306.84, −8.43% |
| MDB | 29 Sep · investor day | Closed 16 Oct $337.57, −7.89% |
| HUBS | Closed 16 Oct $230.94, −3.34% | |
| DDOG | 19 Oct · Bernstein | New today. Bernstein call; +3% pre-market (CNBC). Closed 16 Oct $247.11, −7.19% |
| WDAY | 29 Sep · restructuring | Closed 16 Oct $190.81, −2.96% |
| SAP | 8 Sep · press | Q3 Wed 21 Oct after the US close (Nasdaq calendar). Closed 16 Oct $224.29, −0.32% |
| PANW | 14 Oct · PAN-OS CVE | New today. CVE-2026-0322 (CVSS 8.6), CISA KEV, federal patch deadline 17 Oct. FY27 guide $14.10–14.20bn. Closed 16 Oct $342.00, −7.63% |
| CRWD | 14 Sep · Fal.Con | Closed 16 Oct $227.39, −7.02% |
| INTU | Closed 16 Oct $325.15, −1.52% | |
| PLTR | 8 Oct · Goldman | Q3 est. 2 Nov. Closed 16 Oct $186.03, −7.22% |
| FTNT | Q3 Wed 28 Oct after the close (Nasdaq calendar). Closed 16 Oct $169.13, −7.03% | |
| ROP | Closed 16 Oct $382.71, +0.07% | |
| ZS | Closed 16 Oct $207.38, −5.92% | |
| Ads & adtech | ||
| META | 15 Oct · Apple collaboration | Muse Spark Open (816bn-parameter MoE, open weights) runs locally on two to four M5 Ultra Mac Studios; Alexandr Wang: months of work with Apple; neither side says whether it goes further (CNBC). Q3 Wed 21 Oct after the close, call 16:30 ET (company release 12 Oct). 2026 capex $130–145bn. LSEG: part of >$228bn of 2026 hyperscaler bond issuance. Closed 16 Oct $709.33, −3.72% |
| ZETA | 16 Oct · Goldman upgrade | New today. Goldman to Buy, $45 from $30 (Investing.com). Closed 16 Oct $31.81, −5.19% |
| TTD | 19 Oct · special meeting | New today. Special meeting today 16:00 ET: one-time repricing of up to 15,582,540 underwater options; strike = today’s close; Green eligible for 1,618,489 (DEF 14A). Special meeting 19 Oct. Closed 16 Oct $12.23, −6.85% |
| ROKU | 14 Oct · vote (8-K) | Stockholders adopted the Fox merger agreement 14 Oct: 241.0m for, 0.5m against (8-K); $96 cash + 0.9693 FOXA per share; DOJ second request outstanding; close targeted 1H27. Closed 16 Oct $154.54, −0.08% |
| NFLX | 14 Sep · date set | Q3 Tue 20 Oct, 16:01 ET, interview 16:45 ET (company-confirmed). Closed 16 Oct $70.53, −2.86% |
| APP | 8 Oct · lawsuit / date | Q3 on 4 Nov after the close. Closed 16 Oct $266.13, −4.71% |
| RDDT | Closed 16 Oct $156.14, −2.02% | |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | ||
| ABNB | 8 Sep · session | Closed 16 Oct $173.70, −0.33% |
| BKNG | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | Closed 16 Oct $163.45, −1.42% |
| UBER | 19 Oct · London ruling | New today. £250m black-cab drivers’ suit dismissed (Bloomberg). Q3 Wed 4 Nov, call 08:00 ET. Q3 ~4 Nov. Closed 16 Oct $70.35, −1.29% |
| SHOP | 12 Oct · record close | Q3 3 Nov. Closed 16 Oct $169.52, −4.84% |
| WMT | 15 Oct · Deutsche Bank upgrade | Deutsche Bank (Katai) to Buy from Hold, target $136 from $113; benefits expansion 13 Oct. FY27 adj. EPS guide $2.80–2.87. Closed 16 Oct $118.81, +0.80% |
| MELI | 14 Sep · notes | Q3 expected ~4 Nov. Closed 16 Oct $1,834.00, −1.24% |
| PDD | 16 Oct · Texas settlement | New today. Texas AG: $3m payment, Texas user data on US servers, $8m for any year the data provisions are violated. Q3 18 Nov. Closed 16 Oct $80.97, −1.76% |
| COST | 7 Oct · Sep sales | Sep net sales $30.02bn +13.0%. Closed 16 Oct $989.11, +1.13% |
| MAR | Closed 16 Oct $388.05, +0.61% | |
| DASH | Closed 16 Oct $189.15, −2.02% | |
| Hardware & devices | ||
| AAPL | 16 Oct · iPhone Duo pre-orders | New today. Pre-orders opened 16 Oct 08:00 ET; availability 23 Oct from $1,999 (MacRumors, not in Apple’s release). Muse Spark Open tuned for Apple silicon; Apple published MLX multi-machine benchmarks; HomeView $299 (13 Nov). iPhone Duo pre-orders 16 Oct. FQ4 results 2 Nov (listing). Closed 16 Oct $343.46, +0.43% |
| DELL | 14–15 Oct · Barclays, day two | Barclays EW, $574: growth is pass-through memory cost, “no meaningful AI inflection yet”; ~$920m insider sales in 3 months (StockStory). FQ2’27 rev $47.0bn +58%; AI orders $60.9bn; backlog $95.0bn; FY27 rev ~$192bn. Closed 16 Oct $451.71, −4.58% |
| SMCI | 16 Oct · CFO change | New today. New CFO Mark Long (ex-WDC) replaces David Weigand (MarketBeat). Closed 16 Oct $31.63, −9.86% |
| HPE | 14–15 Oct · Barclays, day two | ~−20% on the week. Barclays EW, $77. Closed 16 Oct $55.13, −5.97% |
| Space & mobility | ||
| SPCX | 16 Oct · Q3 date | New today. Q3 Tue 20 Oct after the close, audio webcast 16:30 ET (company). Day-135 lock-up ~328.4m shares ~24 Oct (third-party). Neutron slip removes a 2026 medium-lift rival. Next lock-up tranches 24 Oct, 8 Dec. Closed 16 Oct $146.03, −1.74% |
| TSLA | 15 Oct · Roadster shown | Roadster shown 15 Oct at SpaceX McGregor: cold-gas thrusters, hover and landing, 0–60 under one second; production 2028; no price; $50,000 deposits (CNBC). Q3 results Wed 21 Oct, webcast 17:30 ET. Closed 16 Oct $354.72, −2.13% |
| RKLB | 16 Oct · target cuts | New today. Citizens $90 from $130; KeyBanc $100 from $135. The release and 8-K exist (investors.rocketlabcorp.com, 14 Oct): voids in a newly cured carbon-composite forward propellant dome; first launch 2027; Beck: automated fibre placement replaces hand lay-up. Synspective 20-launch Electron deal (30 Sep). Closed 16 Oct $50.84, −7.98% |
| Private labs (tracked, no ticker) | ||
| OpenAI | 19 Oct · Alfozan hearing | New today. Alfozan detention hearing today (Magistrate Judge Tse). Altman confirmed humanoid robot, demo 2027 (Engadget). Head of computing capacity Sachin Katti leaves 15 Nov, adviser after; Uday Ruddarraju (ex-xAI, CTO of computing capacity) takes over, reporting to Brockman (WSJ via Yahoo/Investing.com). Katti on X: team secured “double-digit GWs” with Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, AWS, CoreWeave. 2030 compute plan ~$750bn (WSJ). Motley Fool: 2026 revenue told to investors ~$50bn vs ~$70bn earlier. Alfozan hearing 19 Oct. ~$50bn annualized at end-Sep on its own definition (FT); raising $30bn+ at $1.4tn pre-money (not closed). State-lawsuit headlines (CNBC, SiliconANGLE) unverified beyond Florida’s June suit. |
| Anthropic | 18 Oct · public-benefit fund | New today. CNBC: plans to commit 5% of shares to a Public Benefit Fund, subject to shareholder approval. Digitimes: offering Blackstone >10% total return to finance a $60bn chip package (single-source). No S-1/F-1 on EDGAR; roadshow reportedly week of 9 Nov. Told investors: Q3 revenue $16.8bn (Q2 $11.6bn, Q1 $4.7bn); adjusted-profitable (second quarter, FT); cash-flow positive; $1.70 revenue per $1 compute (FT, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC; no company publication). FT: annualized below $100bn; WSJ: investors expect $110bn by year-end. Reuters: IPO likely after the 3 Nov midterms; target $1.8–2tn; no S-1 on EDGAR. D.C. Circuit rehearing petition (13 Oct). |
- The SOX’s week. −11.4% in both; Reuters calls it the biggest weekly drop since March 2025, CNN the worst week since April 2025. We say “spring 2025”.
- CoreWeave’s bonds. CNBC Investing Club: 2031 notes about 14.5% on Friday after nearly 16% earlier in the week. Motley Fool: above 16% on Thursday, some bonds near 79c. Thursday’s brief had 15.78% (CNBC). Different days and hours; no Friday closing CDS level was found.
- Seoul flows. Korea JoongAng Daily: institutions +₩574.66bn, foreigners −₩37.87bn, retail −₩1.09tn. Edaily: institutions +₩655.5bn, foreigners −₩114.1bn, retail −₩1.0895tn. We report direction only.
- Friday closes. fnnews had Micron $892.79, Intel $90.58, Nvidia $214.70, which look like a pre-close snapshot; Yahoo, 24/7 Wall St. and TradingKey agree on $878.84, $89.85 and $214.13. MongoDB’s Friday fall is given as −7.5%, −7.9%, −8.8% and −9.6% by different outlets; we use Yahoo’s −7.89%. Trade Desk: Yahoo −6.85% to $12.23, TradersUnion −3.85% to $12.63; we use Yahoo.
- 10-year yield. CNBC: 5.085% close; Yahoo’s chart: 5.10% (mid-session print).
- Pre-market. CoreWeave +3.1% at $63.30 (TipRanks, 06:45 ET) and +6% (CNBC, 08:45 ET); Micron +2.4% to +3.6% across TipRanks, PANews, TradingKey and Reuters. Same session, different hours.
- Micron union vote. Reuters (via The Star): 99% of ballots cast authorised a strike; a TrendForce headline says 88.3%. Possibly different bases.
- Nscale GPUs. The ~23,000-GPU figure comes from a newsletter relay of the Telegraph; the Yahoo relay we read does not carry it.
- Correction to Friday’s brief. Friday’s calendar listed the preliminary October Michigan sentiment for 16 October; it was published on 9 October (46.3 vs 47.8 expected). The final is Fri 23 Oct, 10:00 ET.
On the calendar
- Mon 19 OctNAHB housing index 10:00 ET. Broadcom exchange offer for its 2037 notes expires 17:00 ET. Trade Desk special meeting on option repricing, 16:00 ET (13:00 PT). OpenAI–Alfozan detention hearing (San Francisco). Micron Taoyuan union rally, Taipei.
- Tue 20 OctHousing starts and permits 08:30 ET. Netflix Q3 16:01 ET, interview 16:45 ET. SpaceX Q3 after the close, audio webcast 16:30 ET (company).
- Wed 21 OctNextEra Q3 pre-market, webcast 09:00 ET. 20-year auction 13:00 ET. After the close: Texas Instruments (call 16:30 ET), Meta (call 16:30 ET), Lam Research (call 17:00 ET), Tesla (webcast 17:30 ET), SAP (release ~16:05 ET, call ~17:00 ET).
- Thu 22 OctJobless claims 08:30 ET. Roper pre-market (listing). After the close: Western Digital (call 16:30 ET; guide $4.1bn ±$0.1bn), Bloom Energy (call 17:00 ET). Mediation for Micron’s Taichung union (separate from Taoyuan).
- Fri 23 OctS&P Global flash PMIs 09:45 ET; Michigan sentiment, October final, 10:00 ET.
- Mon 26 OctCadence Q3, call 17:00 ET (14:00 PT). First trading day after the SpaceX Day-135 lock-up (~328.4m shares, third-party sources).
- Tue 27 OctNXP after the close, call 16:30 ET. SK hynix Q3 call 20:00 ET (Wed 28 Oct 09:00 KST). FOMC meeting begins.
- Wed 28 OctFOMC decision. Pre-market: GE Vernova (webcast 07:30 ET), Vertiv (call 11:00 ET). After the close: Microsoft, Alphabet (call 16:30 ET), ServiceNow (call 17:00 ET), KLA (call 17:00 ET), Fortinet. Samsung Q3 (Thu 29 Oct KST, listing).
- Thu 29 OctAfter the close: Amazon (call 17:00 ET), Intel (call 17:00 ET), Sandisk (call 16:30 ET), Digital Realty, Reddit.
- Fri 30 OctDominion (call 11:00 ET); nVent; MediaTek results (~30 Oct). CXMT Q3 (31 Oct).
- Mon 2 NovApple FQ4 (call 17:00 ET, listing); Palantir; Marriott pre-market.
- Tue 3 NovUS midterm elections. AMD (call 17:00 ET), Arista, Astera, Booking after the close; Shopify pre-market; Eaton (listing).
- Wed 4 NovUber (call 08:00 ET); after the close Arm (call 17:00 ET), AppLovin, DoorDash; Qualcomm ~4 Nov (unconfirmed).
- Fri 6 NovVistra Q3 (call 10:00 ET).
- Mon 9 NovAnthropic IPO roadshow reportedly targeted for this week (Yahoo/Quartz); CoreWeave Q3 expected around this date (aggregators). ~10 Nov: TSMC October revenue, 13:30 Taipei = 00:30 ET (US standard time from 1 Nov); Infineon FY results.
- Mid-NovNvidia FQ3 (17–18 Nov, not announced); PDD 18 Nov; Walmart Thu 19 Nov pre-market; Intuit 19 Nov.
Story worth owning
What is a GPU loan worth when the tenant leaves before the power arrives? Goldman’s CoreWeave case, tested on Nscale’s Essex site
Goldman’s upgrade this morning rests on a claim about the structure of neocloud debt: CoreWeave’s delayed-draw term loans are asset-backed project financings, each secured on GPUs and on a named customer contract, so a credit event is a project-by-project recovery question rather than a corporate default. That is checkable, and nobody independent has done it. The credit agreements are filed as exhibits; each names the collateral, the contracted customer, the amortisation schedule and the cash sweep. The weekend gives the stress case: if the Telegraph is right, Microsoft has left an Nscale site whose grid connection may slip into the 2030s, which is exactly the event a project financing has to survive (the anchor contract gone, the GPUs depreciating, no power to run them for anyone else).
The piece: take CoreWeave’s filed delayed-draw facilities, tabulate collateral, counterparty and amortisation against the useful life of the GPUs, and run the Nscale case through them (anchor tenant lost in year one, re-lease at today’s spot H100/B200 rental rates, or sale of the GPUs at today’s secondary prices). The output is a recovery rate per project, which can be set against Friday’s ~60% five-year default probability on the CDS and Goldman’s $106. It ties together our CoreWeave, Nscale, Nvidia and Microsoft work and the AI-bubble radar’s tripwire 5, and it answers the question the market spent last week asking without answering: is neocloud debt corporate credit or equipment finance?
Sources
- CNN, “Tech stocks, AI and CoreWeave”, cnn.com 16 Oct 2026, 15:10 ET (updated 17:02 ET)
- CNBC, stock market live updates (Goldman desk, Anthropic, Barclays, Blue Owl, yields), cnbc.com 18–19 Oct 2026
- CNBC, “Buy neocloud stock CoreWeave, Goldman Sachs says”, cnbc.com 19 Oct 2026, 08:45 ET
- CNBC, stocks making the biggest moves pre-market, cnbc.com 19 Oct 2026, 07:56 ET
- CNBC Investing Club, CoreWeave credit default swaps, cnbc.com 16 Oct 2026, 16:29 ET
- CNBC, Treasury yields after inflation data, cnbc.com 16 Oct 2026, 16:06 ET
- The Motley Fool, “Why is CoreWeave stock falling today?”, fool.com 16 Oct 2026, 13:01 ET
- TipRanks, CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN pre-market, tipranks.com 19 Oct 2026, 06:45 ET
- Yahoo Finance (Telegraph), “Microsoft pulls out of UK data centre”, finance.yahoo.com 18 Oct 2026, 05:52 ET
- 24/7 Wall St., Applied Digital and debt-funded AI builders, 247wallst.com 16 Oct 2026, 09:53 ET
- Yahoo Finance (Stocktwits), CRWV, IREN, NBIS pre-market, finance.yahoo.com 16 Oct 2026, 04:27 ET
- MarketBeat, Oracle falls 4.6%, marketbeat.com 16 Oct 2026, 17:21 ET
- Yahoo Finance, Oracle default insurance hits record, finance.yahoo.com 15 Oct 2026, 08:21 ET
- Startup Fortune (relaying the FT), AI build-out financing cracks, startupfortune.com 18 Oct 2026
- Yahoo Finance / RTT, US industrial production, finance.yahoo.com 16 Oct 2026, 10:18 ET
- Yahoo Finance, consumer sentiment October preliminary, finance.yahoo.com 9 Oct 2026
- CNBC, Warsh in Bangkok, cnbc.com 16 Oct 2026, 00:08 ET
- eOption, weekly event calendar 19–23 Oct, eoption.com 16 Oct 2026
- 24/7 Wall St. via Yahoo, “Chip stocks just fell 8…” (BofA’s Raedler), finance.yahoo.com 17 Oct 2026, 12:15 ET
- fnnews, US chip stocks close, en.fnnews.com 16 Oct 2026, 16:44 ET
- Reuters via 933thedrive, “US chip stocks rise after steepest weekly selloff in months”, 933thedrive.com 19 Oct 2026
- Edaily, Kospi and chip stocks, en.edaily.co.kr 19 Oct 2026, 02:35 ET
- Yahoo Finance, Intel shares rise on JPMorgan upgrade, finance.yahoo.com 19 Oct 2026, 06:48 ET
- TradingKey, US pre-market (Intel, memory), tradingkey.com 19 Oct 2026
- TradingKey, Micron, CXMT and the Taiwan strike, tradingkey.com 19 Oct 2026
- Broadcom, 424B3 exchange offer prospectus, sec.gov 2026
- Korea JoongAng Daily, “Kospi rebounds sharply as institutions step in”, koreajoongangdaily.com 19 Oct 2026, 04:14 ET
- Korea Times, Kospi edges higher, koreatimes.co.kr 19 Oct 2026
- Focus Taiwan, Taiwan shares close, focustaiwan.tw 19 Oct 2026, 04:21 ET
- The Star (Reuters), Micron Taoyuan union strike authorisation, thestar.com.my 7 Oct 2026
- TrendForce, Micron Taiwan union, Taichung mediation 22 Oct, trendforce.com 8 Oct 2026
- Western Digital, Q1 FY2027 results date and guidance, westerndigital.com 8 Oct 2026
- SK hynix, Form 6-K (results call), sec.gov Oct 2026
- KLA, FQ1 2027 earnings date, ir.kla.com Oct 2026
- Intel, Q3 2026 results date, intc.com 6 Oct 2026
- Sandisk, FQ1 2027 results date, investor.sandisk.com Oct 2026
- AMD, Q3 2026 results date, ir.amd.com Oct 2026
- Yahoo Finance, cybersecurity stocks slide on AI financing, finance.yahoo.com 16 Oct 2026, 12:56 ET
- 24/7 Wall St., enterprise software stocks fall, 247wallst.com 16 Oct 2026, 11:57 ET
- CSO Online, PAN-OS CVE-2026-0322, csoonline.com 15 Oct 2026
- The Trade Desk, DEF 14A special meeting proxy, sec.gov 18 Sep 2026
- AEP via PR Newswire, “AEP partners with Amazon and X-energy to explore advanced nuclear energy in Indiana”, prnewswire.com 19 Oct 2026
- CNBC, Anthropic public benefit fund, cnbc.com 18 Oct 2026, 18:55 ET
- CNBC, Anthropic third-quarter revenue $16.8bn, cnbc.com 14 Oct 2026, 23:48 ET
- Deadline, Fox and Roku shareholders approve merger, deadline.com 14 Oct 2026
- Investing.com (Australia), Friday market-cap movers, au.investing.com 17 Oct 2026
- Texas Attorney General, Temu data-security settlement, texasattorneygeneral.gov Oct 2026
- InvestingLive, October UMich preliminary vs 47.8 expected, investinglive.com 9 Oct 2026
- Yahoo Finance chart data for all closes and futures, finance.yahoo.com pulled 19 Oct 2026, 08:58 ET
Figures are as reported by the companies and the sources above and have not been independently verified against filings. US closes are Friday 16 October from Yahoo Finance chart data; Seoul, Taipei and Tokyo closes are Monday’s; Frankfurt and Amsterdam quotes are Monday at ~08:43 ET; pre-market percentages are as reported by CNBC, TipRanks and Reuters at the times given and will have moved. All times are New York time (ET). This brief is prepared for Gabriela Chiarini’s editorial use and is not investment advice.
Fact-check. A separate agent re-checked the lead claims against GuruFocus/MarketBeat relays of Goldman’s CoreWeave note, TipRanks, Yahoo’s Intel and Telegraph/Nscale pages, fnnews, Reuters and 24/7 Wall St. on the SOX, Yahoo/RTT on industrial production, Korea JoongAng Daily, Edaily and Focus Taiwan, Reuters/TrendForce on the Micron union, AEP’s release, Trade Desk’s DEF 14A, SpaceX’s IR release, Super Micro’s 8-K, Broadcom’s 424B3 and the Texas AG. Confirmed: Goldman’s rating, target and project-finance argument; JPMorgan’s Intel rating, target and 36% drawdown; every Nscale figure; the SOX close, streak, week and YTD; BofA’s $1tn; industrial production and capacity utilisation; all Seoul and Taipei figures and both flow sets; the Micron rally facts and 99% vote; the AEP SMR terms; the Trade Desk proxy figures; SpaceX’s date; Super Micro’s CFO; KeyBanc’s Rocket Lab cut; the PAN-OS CVE. Applied fixes: “longest losing run since 2008” re-attributed to 24/7 Wall St.; “all 30 members fell” removed (not in fnnews); Nscale’s IPO filing already exists; Broadcom “does not currently intend” to extend; Michigan consensus corrected to 47.8; PDD’s $8m penalty restated per the Texas AG; the Taichung mediation attributed to Micron’s separate Taichung union; Intel’s <$1bn foundry figure attributed to TradingKey; AEP source switched to its PR Newswire release; three source URLs completed. Not independently confirmed (CNBC and CNN pages blocked the checker): Goldman’s 100–200bp and the +6% CoreWeave pre-market; LSEG’s 31 of 45; the CNN weekly figures, VIX, Brent at $110 and Luria quote; the Goldman desk quotes; FedWatch ~16%/~92%; Anthropic’s 5% Public Benefit Fund (the research agent read CNBC’s page; the checker found no second source); Citizens’ Rocket Lab cut; the union chair’s surprise-strike remark.
