The one thing
The prints were good; the week was not. Of the 29 Core Value names that reported, 19 had their guidance set out in our 3 November edition. Ten of the thirteen with a revenue guide in dollars beat its top (AMD, Arista, Astera Labs, Super Micro, Datadog, Arm, AppLovin, HubSpot, Cloudflare and Airbnb) and the other three, Uber, Qualcomm and Coherent, landed inside it; none missed. Between Wednesday and Thursday the market sold on Tuesday’s midterm results: on Thursday the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index 12.25%, its worst day since March 2020. At 11:17–11:19 ET on Friday the S&P 500 was −2.32% on the week and the SMH semiconductor ETF −11.84%.
What the reactions paid for was the next quarter. Datadog beat its guide by about 5%, guided the fourth quarter no higher than the third, and fell 14.42% on a day the S&P 500 rose 1.58%; HubSpot did the same and was −9.47% after hours. Qualcomm (−9.49%) and Arm (−13.08%) said memory prices are slowing phones. AppLovin rose 31.04% on Thursday, 35.40 points better than the S&P 500, on a guide 8.9% above the third quarter at the same margin. Booking (+9.83%) beat its room-night range and booked $1.0bn of FTC charges that the market read as a ceiling.
And the vote took back the early gains. Eaton closed +7.00% on its reaction day and is −7.78% from its pre-results close; onsemi went from +3.55% to −10.73%, AMD from +1.01% to −9.11% and DigitalOcean from +0.79% to −20.39%. Friday’s reporters met a rebound: IREN +17.80%, Cloudflare +10.37%, IonQ +10.95%, Airbnb +10.16% and Vistra +8.89% (at 11:17–11:18 ET).
The week’s reactions, from our price database
Friday’s prices are intraday. The six Friday reactions (Cloudflare, Airbnb, IREN, IonQ, Vistra and TeraWulf) are priced at 11:17–11:18 ET, and the “since the results” column at Fri 11:17–11:19 ET. We update this post with Friday’s closes after the session.
| Name | Reported | Reaction day | At the open | Day move | vs S&P 500, pts | Size rank, last earnings days | Since the results, to Fri 11:17–11:19 ET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin (APP) | Wed 4, after close | Thu 5 | +28.73% | +31.04% | +35.40 | 2nd of 13 | +41.52% |
| IREN (IREN) | Thu 5, after close | Fri 6, 11:17 ET | +17.30% | +17.80% | +17.15 | 2nd of 8 | – |
| IonQ (IONQ) | Thu 5, after close | Fri 6, 11:17 ET | +8.97% | +10.95% | +10.30 | 7th of 13 | – |
| Cloudflare (NET) | Thu 5, after close | Fri 6, 11:17 ET | +2.87% | +10.37% | +9.72 | 7th of 13 | – |
| Airbnb (ABNB) | Thu 5, after close | Fri 6, 11:18 ET | +12.65% | +10.16% | +9.50 | 4th of 13 | – |
| Booking Holdings (BKNG) | Tue 3, after close | Wed 4 | +3.03% | +9.83% | +8.25 | 2nd of 13 | +5.69% |
| Vistra (VST) | Fri 6, before open | Fri 6, 11:18 ET | +3.52% | +8.89% | +8.24 | 5th of 13 | – |
| Eaton (ETN) | Tue 3, before open | Tue 3 | +3.68% | +7.00% | +6.64 | 4th of 13 | −7.78% |
| Marriott (MAR) | Mon 2, before open | Mon 2 | +6.44% | +4.26% | +4.77 | 6th of 13 | +4.62% |
| Arista Networks (ANET) | Tue 3, after close | Wed 4 | +5.35% | +5.04% | +3.46 | 10th of 13 | −0.74% |
| Uber (UBER) | Wed 4, before open | Wed 4 | +2.52% | +4.91% | +3.33 | 9th of 13 | +4.74% |
| onsemi (ON) | Mon 2, after close | Tue 3 | +2.68% | +3.55% | +3.19 | 8th of 13 | −10.73% |
| Roku (ROKU) | Mon 2, after close | Tue 3 | −0.71% | +3.11% | +2.75 | 12th of 13 | +3.12% |
| TeraWulf (WULF) | Fri 6, before open | Fri 6, 11:17 ET | +10.57% | +1.19% | +0.53 | 11th of 13 | – |
| DigitalOcean (DOCN) | Tue 3, before open | Tue 3 | −2.62% | +0.79% | +0.43 | 13th of 13 | −20.39% |
| AMD (AMD) | Tue 3, after close | Wed 4 | +0.28% | +1.01% | −0.57 | 13th of 13 | −9.11% |
| HubSpot (HUBS) | Wed 4, after close | Thu 5 | +1.85% | −5.39% | −1.04 | 8th of 13 | −9.92% |
| Palantir (PLTR) | Mon 2, after close | Tue 3 | −5.70% | −1.65% | −2.01 | 13th of 13 | −10.43% |
| Apple (AAPL) | Mon 2, after close | Tue 3 | −3.77% | −1.90% | −2.26 | 6th of 13 | +1.76% |
| Qualcomm (QCOM) | Wed 4, after close | Thu 5 | −13.36% | −9.49% | −5.14 | 3rd of 13 | −4.84% |
| Astera Labs (ALAB) | Tue 3, after close | Wed 4 | −6.70% | −4.43% | −6.01 | 8th of 11 | −21.13% |
| Super Micro (SMCI) | Tue 3, after close | Wed 4 | +0.10% | −5.70% | −7.28 | 11th of 13 | −9.41% |
| MercadoLibre (MELI) | Wed 4, after close | Thu 5 | −7.47% | −12.05% | −7.69 | 3rd of 13 | −13.14% |
| Coherent (COHR) | Wed 4, after close | Thu 5 | −5.42% | −12.98% | −8.63 | 4th of 13 | −4.05% |
| Arm (ARM) | Wed 4, after close | Thu 5 | −10.30% | −13.08% | −8.72 | – | −10.72% |
| Shopify (SHOP) | Tue 3, before open | Tue 3 | −12.67% | −8.74% | −9.10 | 4th of 8 | −5.17% |
| Marvell (MRVL) | Mon 2, before open | Mon 2 | −2.46% | −12.72% | −12.21 | 5th of 13 | −30.03% |
| Datadog (DDOG) | Wed 4, before open | Wed 4 | −9.42% | −14.42% | −16.00 | 5th of 13 | −19.54% |
| Lumentum (LITE) | Mon 2, before open | Mon 2 | −4.54% | −18.59% | −18.08 | 3rd of 13 | −37.43% |
Sorted by the move against the S&P 500, because Thursday’s market fall sits inside six of the reaction days. “At the open” is the opening price against the close before the results; “day move” is the reaction day’s close (for Friday, the price at the time shown) against that same close; “vs S&P 500” is the difference in percentage points. The size rank compares the move with the stock’s previous earnings-day moves in our database: 1st is the largest and the last place the smallest (Arm files a 6-K, so it has no ranked history). “Since the results” runs from the close before the results to Fri 11:17–11:19 ET; Roku’s ends at its last close on 5 November, before Fox completed its purchase. Over the week, from the 30 October close, the S&P 500 is −2.32% and the SMH semiconductor ETF −11.84%.
Against each company’s own guide
| Name | Company guide (our 3 November edition) | Reported | Where it landed | Next guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday 3 November, after the close | ||||
| AMD | Revenue about $13.0bn ± $0.3bn; non-GAAP GM about 56% | $13.377bn; 56% | Above the top; margin in line | About $17bn ± 3% at about 55% GM |
| Arista Networks | Revenue about $3.3bn; non-GAAP EPS $1.06–1.08 | $3.66bn; $1.20 | 10.9% above; EPS above | $3.9–4.0bn; EPS $1.26–1.30 |
| Astera Labs | Revenue $540–560m | $584.9m | 4.4% above the top | $730–750m |
| Super Micro | Pre-announced $18.5–19.5bn; GM 12.0–12.5% | $19.95bn; 12.7% | Above its own pre-announcement | $19.5–21.5bn; FY27 $72–82bn |
| Booking Holdings | Room nights +3–5%; revenue +4–6% | Room nights +7%; revenue −1% | Volume above; revenue below, on a $900m FTC reduction | – |
| Wednesday 4 November | ||||
| Uber | Gross bookings $58.25–60.25bn | $59.8bn | Inside, upper half | GB $63.25–65.25bn |
| Datadog | Revenue $1.135–1.145bn | $1.20bn | About 5% above the top | $1.19–1.20bn, flat on the quarter |
| Qualcomm | Revenue $9.7–10.5bn; non-GAAP EPS $2.05–2.25 | $10.32bn; $2.17 | Inside, upper half | $10.4–11.2bn, now incl. Data Center |
| Arm | Revenue $1.38bn ± $50m; non-GAAP EPS $0.47 ± $0.04 | $1,443m; $0.52 | Above the top on both | $1.54bn ± $50m |
| AppLovin | Revenue $2,055–2,085m; adj. EBITDA $1,710–1,740m | $2,185m; $1,842m | Above the top on both | $2,365–2,395m; EBITDA $1,995–2,025m |
| Coherent | Revenue $2.2–2.4bn; non-GAAP EPS $1.85–2.05 | $2.37bn; $2.09 | Revenue inside; EPS above | $2.55–2.75bn |
| HubSpot | Revenue $924.0–925.0m | $947.6m | 2.4% above the top | $945.0–947.0m, flat on the quarter |
| MercadoLibre | No quantitative guidance | $10.75bn; operating income −6% | – | No guidance |
| Thursday 5 November, after the close | ||||
| Cloudflare | Revenue $736.0–737.0m; non-GAAP op. income $129.0–130.0m | $782.5m; $137.1m | 6.2% above the top; op. income above | $845–846m |
| Airbnb | Revenue $4.69–4.77bn | $4,869m | 2.1% above the top | $3.22–3.28bn; FY raised |
| IREN | No revenue guide; $4bn contracted ARR running by 31 Dec | >$4bn now targeted for Jan–Feb 2027 | Target date missed by one to two months | $6bn of FY27 capex not yet financed |
| IonQ | No quarterly range; 2026 revenue $450–460m | $173.8m | 2026 guide raised | 2026 $505–515m |
| Friday 6 November, before the open | ||||
| Vistra | 2026 adj. EBITDA $6.8–7.6bn; 2027 “opportunity” $7.4–7.8bn | Q3 $2,378m | 2026 narrowed, midpoint up | 2026 $7.1–7.5bn; 2027 $7.7–8.5bn |
| TeraWulf | No revenue guide; 438 MW energised by 1H 2027 | $76.2m; 102 MW online, 336 MW building | – | No revenue guide |
The 19 names that had not reported when our 3 November edition set out each company’s own guide; the ten that reported before it are in the table above and below. Percentages above a guide are our arithmetic against the top of the range (or the point guide). “–” means no guide to compare, or none in the documents we cite.
Results, company by company
Monday 2 November
Lumentum · ★ Revenue up 136.5%, on the morning it agreed to sell itself to Marvell for stock
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Fiscal first-quarter revenue was $1,262.6m, up 136.5% on the year; non-GAAP gross margin 53.2%, non-GAAP operating margin 42.3%, non-GAAP EPS $4.57. A second major co-packaged optics win is backed by more than $5bn of purchase commitments. The second-quarter guide is $1.575–1.625bn of revenue and $5.90–6.20 of non-GAAP EPS. The Marvell agreement pays 4.500 Marvell shares per Lumentum share.
Market reaction: opened −4.54% and closed −18.59% at $684.40 on Monday, 18.08 points worse than the S&P 500: the third-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −37.43%, against −2.32% for the S&P 500.
The read: With a fixed exchange ratio Lumentum holders carry Marvell’s share price, and both have fallen further since Monday. The gap between Lumentum’s price and the value of the offer was 12.7% at Monday’s close and is 17.6% at 11:18 ET (our arithmetic), so the market is pricing more risk that the deal does not close as signed.
Marvell · ★ A $115bn all-stock bid for Lumentum and a preliminary quarter in line with guidance
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1, preliminary). Fiscal third-quarter revenue is in line with guidance; Marvell kept the midpoint and narrowed the range to ±2%. The Lumentum agreement pays 4.500 Marvell shares per Lumentum share, an implied enterprise value of $115bn, with Marvell holders owning about 67% of the combined company. Closing is expected in the first half of 2028.
Market reaction: opened −2.46% and closed −12.72% at $171.41 on Monday, 12.21 points worse than the S&P 500: the fifth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −30.03%, against −2.32% for the S&P 500.
The read: Marvell’s stock is now the currency of the deal, so its fall is paid partly by Lumentum’s holders. The full fiscal third-quarter results are still to come.
Marriott · ★ Worldwide RevPAR +6.5%, US and Canada +7.4%, and adjusted EPS of $3.02
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99). Worldwide RevPAR rose 6.5% in the third quarter (US and Canada +7.4%). Adjusted EPS was $3.02 and adjusted EBITDA $1,512m.
Market reaction: opened +6.44% and closed +4.26% at $416.30 on Monday, 4.77 points better than the S&P 500: the sixth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is +4.62%, against −2.32% for the S&P 500.
The read: RevPAR drives the fees; most of Marriott’s reported revenue is cost reimbursement (73.3% in our Marriott study). It is one of the four travel names that are higher than before their results, in a week the S&P 500 fell.
Apple · ★ A record September quarter, and a December margin guide of 45–46% on memory costs
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1, and 10-K). Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue $114.5bn (+12%); diluted EPS $2.10; gross margin 47.9%, including about one point from tariff refunds. Fiscal 2026 revenue was a record $479bn. According to call coverage, Apple guided December-quarter revenue growth of 7–10% and a gross margin of 45–46%, citing memory prices.
Market reaction: −2.81% after hours at 19:59 ET on Monday; opened −3.77% and closed −1.90% at $331.90 on Tuesday, 2.26 points worse than the S&P 500: the sixth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:17 ET on Friday it is +1.76%, against −1.82% for the S&P 500.
The read: Apple was the first of three companies this week to put memory costs into an outlook; Qualcomm and Arm followed on Wednesday. On Thursday it priced $7.5bn of notes with its ten-year at 5.350%.
Palantir · ★ Revenue +96% and US commercial passes US government, but contract value closed grew 6%
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Revenue $2.313bn (+96%). US commercial revenue grew 148% to $984m, above US government ($953m, +96%) for the first time. Adjusted operating margin 62%. The 2026 revenue guide rises to $8.530–8.534bn and the fourth-quarter guide is $2.649–2.653bn. Total contract value closed was $2.918bn, up 6%.
Market reaction: −3.00% after hours at 19:59 ET on Monday; opened −5.70% and closed −1.65% at $175.40 on Tuesday, 2.01 points worse than the S&P 500: the smallest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −10.43%, against −1.82% for the S&P 500.
The read: Revenue is growing almost 100% but contract value closed only 6%: Palantir is billing its backlog faster than it refills it.
onsemi · ★ AI data-centre revenue +175%, and $600m for Ferric’s voltage regulators
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Revenue $1,722m (+11%); non-GAAP gross margin 41.2%; non-GAAP EPS $0.90. AI data-centre revenue grew 175% on the year. The fourth-quarter guide is $1,715–1,815m. onsemi agreed to buy Ferric for $600m in cash plus up to $175m tied to milestones.
Market reaction: +0.50% after hours at 19:58 ET on Monday; opened +2.68% and closed +3.55% at $72.60 on Tuesday, 3.19 points better than the S&P 500: the eighth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −10.73%, against −1.82% for the S&P 500.
The read: Total revenue grows only 11%, so the AI line carries the story, and that line depends on new data centres being built. The vote two days later priced exactly that.
Roku · ★ Platform revenue +23% in its last print as a listed company
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Total revenue $1.502bn (+24%); platform revenue $1.308bn (+23%). Income from operations $164.1m against $9.5m a year earlier. Fox completed its purchase on 6 November: each Roku share receives $95.30 in cash and 0.9799 Fox Class A shares.
Market reaction: −1.13% after hours at 17:46 ET on Monday; opened −0.71% and closed +3.11% at $160.36 on Tuesday, 2.75 points better than the S&P 500: the twelfth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. Roku stopped trading on 6 November, when Fox completed its purchase; from the close before the results to its last close, on Thursday 5 November, it moved +3.12%.
The read: Roku leaves the listed coverage; this print is the last public record of the platform business, which now reports inside Fox.
Tuesday 3 November, before the open
Eaton · ★ Sales +28% and Electrical backlog +46%, rewarded on Tuesday and sold with the power names on Wednesday
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99). Third-quarter sales were a record $8.9bn (+28%; 19% organic). Segment margins were a record 25.3% and adjusted EPS $3.68. Backlog rose 46% in Electrical and 33% in Aerospace. Eaton raised its organic growth guide, expects 2026 adjusted EPS of $13.70–13.80, and agreed to buy COL Group.
Market reaction: opened +3.68% and closed +7.00% at $391.70 on Tuesday, 6.64 points better than the S&P 500: the fourth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −7.78%, against −1.82% for the S&P 500.
The read: Nothing in the order book changed between Tuesday and Wednesday. What changed was the market’s view of the orders not yet placed, after a vote against new data-centre construction; the backlog already booked is the part the election does not reach.
Shopify · ★ Revenue +32%, but gross profit grows more slowly than revenue in the fourth-quarter guide
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Third-quarter revenue $3,742m (+32%) and GMV $119.1bn. Operating income $568m and free cash flow $816m, a 22% margin. For the fourth quarter Shopify guides revenue growth at a low-thirties percentage and gross profit growth at a high-twenties percentage.
Market reaction: opened −12.67% and closed −8.74% at $142.57 on Tuesday, 9.10 points worse than the S&P 500: the fourth-largest of its last 8 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:19 ET on Friday it is −5.17%, against −1.82% for the S&P 500.
The read: Gross profit growing more slowly than revenue means the mix keeps moving to lower-margin payments. MercadoLibre, the other marketplace that grew revenue faster than profit, is also lower since its results.
DigitalOcean · ★ Growth of 40%, a 60%+ guide for 2027, and a $1bn share programme the same morning
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1, and 424B5). Third-quarter revenue $321m (+40%); annual run-rate revenue $1,285m; AI customer ARR $376m (+288%). Operating income $33m (−27%). DigitalOcean expects more than 60% revenue growth in 2027, and the same morning set up an at-the-market programme for up to $1bn of stock.
Market reaction: opened −2.62% and closed +0.79% at $90.50 on Tuesday, 0.43 points better than the S&P 500: the smallest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:19 ET on Friday it is −20.39%, against −1.82% for the S&P 500.
The read: A 60% growth target needs new capacity, and the vote priced the cost of building it: DigitalOcean traded with the neoclouds from Wednesday.
Tuesday 3 November, after the close
AMD · ★ Data Center revenue +97% and a fourth-quarter guide of about $17bn
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Third-quarter revenue was $13.377bn, up 45%, above the top of its guide of about $13.0bn ± $0.3bn. Data Center revenue was a record $8.5bn (+97%); Client $2.9bn (+7%), Gaming $773m (−40%), Embedded $1.1bn (+29%). Non-GAAP gross margin 56%, in line with the guide, and non-GAAP EPS $2.09 (+74%). The fourth-quarter guide is about $17bn ± 3%, up about 66% on the year and 27% on the quarter, at a non-GAAP gross margin of about 55%. AMD names Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle Cloud as running workloads on its first Helios racks.
Market reaction: +5.02% after hours at 19:59 ET on Tuesday; opened +0.28% and closed +1.01% at $488.78 on Wednesday, 0.57 points worse than the S&P 500: the smallest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −9.11%, against −2.18% for the S&P 500.
The read: The guide adds about $3.6bn of revenue in one quarter at a margin one point lower, which is what a rack ramp looks like. The stock held its gain on Wednesday and lost it on Thursday, with the rest of the chip group.
Arista Networks · ★ $3.66bn, up 58.5%, against a guide of about $3.3bn
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Revenue was $3.66bn, up 20.5% on the quarter and 58.5% on the year, 10.9% above its guide of about $3.3bn (our arithmetic). Non-GAAP operating margin 49.1%, at the top of the 48–49% guide, and non-GAAP EPS $1.20 against $1.06–1.08. The fourth-quarter guide is $3.9–4.0bn, a 48–49% operating margin and non-GAAP EPS of $1.26–1.30. Arista also launched open Ethernet scale-up rack designs with AMD, Arm, Broadcom, d-Matrix, Meta, Microsoft and Qualcomm.
Market reaction: +9.47% after hours at 19:59 ET on Tuesday; opened +5.35% and closed +5.04% at $178.48 on Wednesday, 3.46 points better than the S&P 500: the tenth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −0.74%, against −2.18% for the S&P 500.
The read: Networking is spent inside data centres that already exist or are being fitted out, so it is less exposed to a permitting fight than the power names. The scale-up rack designs take Arista inside the rack, not only between racks.
Astera Labs · ★ Revenue up 154% and a $730–750m guide, and the stock fell anyway
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Revenue was $584.9m, up 49% on the quarter and 154% on the year, above its $540–560m guide. Non-GAAP gross margin 72.4% and non-GAAP operating margin 44.7%. The fourth-quarter guide is $730–750m at about a 72% gross margin, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.62–1.66.
Market reaction: −3.61% after hours at 19:59 ET on Tuesday; opened −6.70% and closed −4.43% at $223.27 on Wednesday, 6.01 points worse than the S&P 500: the eighth-largest of its last 11 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:19 ET on Friday it is −21.13%, against −2.18% for the S&P 500.
The read: The guide is another 26% sequential step at the midpoint (our arithmetic). Investors sold the AI-connectivity group on Wednesday and Thursday whatever the print said; Astera fell 19.62% on Thursday alone.
Super Micro · ★ $19.95bn of sales at a 12.7% gross margin, cash used in operations, and controls still not effective
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1, and 10-Q). Fiscal first-quarter net sales were $19.95bn, against $11.1bn in the June quarter and $5.0bn a year earlier, and above the $18.5–19.5bn it pre-announced on 20 October. Gross margin was 12.7%, against the pre-announced 12.0–12.5%. Diluted EPS $1.75. Operations used $434m of cash; Super Micro ended September with $6.9bn of cash and $8.6bn of bank debt and convertible notes. It guides the December quarter to $19.5–21.5bn and fiscal 2027 to $72–82bn. The 10-Q, filed on 6 November, says disclosure controls were not effective because the material weakness reported in the fiscal 2026 10-K has not been remediated.
Market reaction: +7.20% after hours at 19:59 ET on Tuesday; opened +0.10% and closed −5.70% at $29.60 on Wednesday, 7.28 points worse than the S&P 500: the eleventh-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −9.41%, against −2.18% for the S&P 500.
The read: Sales nearly quadrupled on the year at a 12.7% margin while operations used cash: Super Micro is growing on low-margin rack volume that it pays for up front.
Booking Holdings · ★ Room nights +7%, above its range; revenue −1% after $1.0bn of FTC charges
Results (8-K and 10-Q). Room nights grew 7%, against a guide of 3–5%, and gross bookings 10%. Reported revenue fell 1%, against a guide of +4–6%, which the 10-Q attributes mainly to a $900m reduction in revenue for the FTC matter; it also books a $100m loss accrual, so the charges total $1.0bn. It says a settlement has not been agreed. Adding the $900m back, revenue would have grown about 9% (our arithmetic).
Market reaction: −1.39% after hours at 19:32 ET on Tuesday; opened +3.03% and closed +9.83% at $170.97 on Wednesday, 8.25 points better than the S&P 500: the second-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:19 ET on Friday it is +5.69%, against −2.18% for the S&P 500.
The read: The stock rose as if $1.0bn put a ceiling on the FTC matter, but the 10-Q says no settlement has been agreed. Volume above the guide is the cleaner part of the print.
Wednesday 4 November, before the open
Uber · ★ Gross bookings +20%, inside its range, and adjusted EBITDA +31%
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Gross bookings were $59.8bn, up 20% (Mobility +18%, Delivery +22%), in the upper half of the $58.25–60.25bn guide. Revenue was $14.77bn (+10%); Mobility revenue fell 2% to $7.52bn. Adjusted EBITDA $3.0bn (+31%) and free cash flow $2.54bn. The fourth-quarter guide is gross bookings of $63.25–65.25bn and adjusted EBITDA of $3.13–3.23bn. Uber expects about 700 fully driverless vehicles on its network by year-end and more than 2,000 in 2027. Jill Hazelbaker, President and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, leaves on 30 November (8-K Item 5.02).
Market reaction: opened +2.52% and closed +4.91% at $69.87 on Wednesday, 3.33 points better than the S&P 500: the ninth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:19 ET on Friday it is +4.74%, against −2.18% for the S&P 500.
The read: Mobility bookings grew 18% while Mobility revenue fell, so less of each ride now shows up as Uber’s revenue; the release puts the cut to total revenue growth from business-model changes at 8 points.
Datadog · ★ Revenue +35%, about 5% above its guide, and a fourth quarter guided flat
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Third-quarter revenue was $1.20bn, up 35%, against a guide of $1.135–1.145bn. Non-GAAP operating margin 28% and free cash flow $251m. Customers with $100,000 or more of ARR rose 20%, to about 4,860. The fourth-quarter guide is $1.19–1.20bn, which at the top only matches the third quarter; the full-year guide is $4.515–4.525bn.
Market reaction: opened −9.42% and closed −14.42% at $188.72 on Wednesday, 16.00 points worse than the S&P 500: the fifth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:19 ET on Friday it is −19.54%, against −2.18% for the S&P 500.
The read: Datadog fell on a day the S&P 500 rose 1.58%, so this one was the guide, not the market. A beat followed by a flat sequential guide came twice this week, here and at HubSpot. The release does not say where the fourth-quarter gap comes from.
Wednesday 4 November, after the close
Qualcomm · ★ Handsets −26%, a guide that now includes Data Center, and memory in the outlook
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue was $10.32bn (−8%), inside the $9.7–10.5bn guide, and non-GAAP EPS $2.17, inside $2.05–2.25. Handsets fell 26% to $5.14bn; Automotive rose 89% to a record $1.99bn; IoT rose 4% to $1.89bn. The first-quarter guide is $10.4–11.2bn (QCT $9.0–9.6bn, now including Data Center) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.15–2.35. Qualcomm reiterated its $5bn fiscal 2027 Data Center target. Its outlook cites “a broad-based increase in input costs”, memory among them, which it is passing into prices, with the full benefit expected only in the second half of fiscal 2027.
Market reaction: −7.40% after hours at 19:59 ET on Wednesday; opened −13.36% and closed −9.49% at $156.75 on Thursday, 5.14 points worse than the S&P 500: the third-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −4.84%, against −3.70% for the S&P 500.
The read: The guide’s midpoint is 4.6% above the quarter just reported and now carries Data Center revenue the fourth quarter did not, so on our reading the handset business is guided lower underneath.
Arm · ★ Revenue above its range on licences; royalties up 8% as memory prices hit phones
Results (6-K, Exhibit 99.1). Fiscal second-quarter revenue was $1,443m (+27%), above the $1.38bn ± $50m guide, and non-GAAP EPS $0.52, above $0.47 ± $0.04. Licence and other revenue rose 50% to $773m on the timing of several large agreements. Royalty revenue rose 8% to $670m, “partially offset by the impact of memory pricing on the smartphone market”. Annualised contract value rose 12% to $1,790m. The third-quarter guide is $1.54bn ± $50m.
Market reaction: −1.74% after hours at 19:59 ET on Wednesday; opened −10.30% and closed −13.08% at $166.72 on Thursday, 8.72 points worse than the S&P 500. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −10.72%, against −3.70% for the S&P 500.
The read: Royalties are the recurring part of Arm and track chip shipments; they grew at a third of the rate of total revenue. The beat came from licence timing. Arm files a 6-K rather than an 8-K, so our database has no earnings-day history to rank the move against.
AppLovin · ★ Revenue +55% at an 84% EBITDA margin, and a 31% rise on the market’s worst day
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Third-quarter revenue was $2.185bn (+55%), above the $2,055–2,085m guide, and adjusted EBITDA $1.842bn, an 84% margin, above $1,710–1,740m. Net income $1.439bn (+72%); free cash flow $1.4bn. AppLovin bought back and withheld 4.1m shares for $1.4bn and raised its buyback authorisation by $3.2bn, to $3.6bn. The fourth-quarter guide is revenue of $2.365–2.395bn and adjusted EBITDA of $1.995–2.025bn.
Market reaction: +22.87% after hours at 19:59 ET on Wednesday; opened +28.73% and closed +31.04% at $356.10 on Thursday, 35.40 points better than the S&P 500: the second-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is +41.52%, against −3.70% for the S&P 500.
The read: The guide’s midpoint is 8.9% above the third quarter at the same margin (our arithmetic). On a day the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, a growing next quarter was enough.
Coherent · ★ Revenue +50% inside its range, EPS above it, and a gross-margin target above 45%
Results (8-K, Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2). Fiscal first-quarter revenue was $2.37bn, up 50% (56% pro forma), inside the $2.2–2.4bn guide; Datacenter revenue rose 85% and Communications 84%. Non-GAAP gross margin 40.6% and non-GAAP EPS $2.09, above $1.85–2.05. The second-quarter guide is $2.55–2.75bn at a 40–42% non-GAAP gross margin, with EPS of $2.28–2.48. Coherent expects fiscal 2027 pro forma growth above 60% and set a target of a quarter with non-GAAP gross margin above 45% before the end of calendar 2028.
Market reaction: +4.97% after hours at 19:59 ET on Wednesday; opened −5.42% and closed −12.98% at $169.76 on Thursday, 8.63 points worse than the S&P 500: the fourth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −4.05%, against −3.70% for the S&P 500.
The read: Coherent beat on earnings and fell 12.98% on the day the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell 12.25%: it traded with the optical group and the vote, not on its own print.
HubSpot · ★ Revenue 2.4% above its guide, and a fourth quarter guided flat
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Third-quarter revenue was $947.6m, up 17%, against a guide of $924.0–925.0m. Non-GAAP operating margin 22.6% (19.9% a year earlier); non-GAAP free cash flow $188.0m. Customers rose 12% to 311,704 and calculated billings 15% to $924.9m. The fourth-quarter guide is $945.0–947.0m, up 12% and no higher than the third quarter; full year $3.685–3.687bn.
Market reaction: −9.47% after hours at 19:58 ET on Wednesday; opened +1.85% and closed −5.39% at $204.96 on Thursday, 1.04 points worse than the S&P 500: the eighth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:18 ET on Friday it is −9.92%, against −3.70% for the S&P 500.
The read: Growth falls from 17% to 12% in one quarter, and billings, at 15%, were already growing more slowly than revenue.
MercadoLibre · ★ Revenue +45%, operating income −6%, and $2.1bn into the credit book
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). MercadoLibre gives no quantitative guidance. Net revenue and financial income was $10.75bn, up 45% (41% FX-neutral). Income from operations fell 6% to $676m, a 6.3% margin, which it attributes to free shipping and fulfilment capacity and to affiliate-marketing spend in Brazil. Net income $448m. Total payment volume $109bn (+53%) and GMV $23bn (+38%). Adjusted free cash flow was $285m after $503m of capex and $2.1bn invested in the credit portfolio.
Market reaction: −6.36% after hours at 19:59 ET on Wednesday; opened −7.47% and closed −12.05% at $1,530.28 on Thursday, 7.69 points worse than the S&P 500: the third-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves. From the close before the results to 11:19 ET on Friday it is −13.14%, against −3.70% for the S&P 500.
The read: The letter says MercadoLibre is “investing part of today’s margin”. Our MercadoLibre study found credit-loss provisions larger than operating income; the credit book took $2.1bn of cash in a quarter that generated $285m.
Thursday 5 November, after the close
Cloudflare · ★ Revenue +39%, 6.2% above its guide, at a lower gross margin
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Third-quarter revenue was $782.5m, up 39%, against a guide of $736.0–737.0m; current remaining performance obligations rose 37%. Non-GAAP gross margin fell to 72.4% from 75.3%. Non-GAAP operating income was $137.1m, above the $129.0–130.0m guide. Free cash flow $82.1m, 10% of revenue against 13% a year earlier, as capex rose to $121.8m. The fourth-quarter guide is $845–846m and the full year $2,963–2,964m. The release refers to a move to an “agentic AI-first operating model” with an estimated reduction of the current workforce.
Market reaction: +14.57% after hours at 19:59 ET on Thursday; opened +2.87% and was +10.37% at $269.88 at 11:17 ET on Friday, 9.72 points better than the S&P 500: the seventh-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves.
The read: Growth accelerated while gross margin and free-cash-flow margin both fell about three points, so the extra growth is costing capacity. The fourth-quarter guide is 8.1% above the third quarter (our arithmetic).
Airbnb · ★ Nights +16%, revenue 2.1% above its guide, a raised outlook and a $12bn buyback
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Third-quarter revenue was $4,869m, up 19% (16% excluding currency), against a guide of $4.69–4.77bn. Nights and seats booked rose 16% to 155.0m and gross booking value 21% to $27.7bn. Adjusted EBITDA $2,509m, a 52% margin; free cash flow $1,426m. Airbnb raised its 2026 outlook to revenue growth in the high teens at an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 36%, from at least mid-teens and at least 35.5%, and guides the fourth quarter to $3.22–3.28bn (+16–18%). It added a $12bn buyback authorisation to the $2.7bn remaining.
Market reaction: +11.02% after hours at 19:59 ET on Thursday; opened +12.65% and was +10.16% at $187.41 at 11:18 ET on Friday, 9.50 points better than the S&P 500: the fourth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves.
The read: This is the cleanest print of the week outside AI: volume growth, not price, with the average daily rate up only 4%.
IREN · ★ AI Cloud revenue +182% on the quarter, and the $4bn year-end ARR target moves to January
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Revenue for the quarter to 30 September was $228m, up 66% on the June quarter. AI Cloud revenue was $200m (+182%) at an 86% segment gross margin; bitcoin mining fell to $28m from $67m. Contracted backlog rose 22% on the quarter to $20.3bn. IREN had no revenue guide; its target was $4bn of contracted ARR running by 31 December. More than $4bn of contracted annualised revenue is now targeted for January 2027 “following a customer-requested change and supplier timing”, and may extend to February; Reuters reports the deliveries are Microsoft’s. IREN has $15bn of planned fiscal 2027 capex left, $6bn of it still to be raised “subject to market conditions”. Net debt rose to $4,430m from $216m.
Market reaction: +10.54% after hours at 19:59 ET on Thursday; opened +17.30% and was +17.80% at $21.24 at 11:17 ET on Friday, 17.15 points better than the S&P 500: the second-largest of its last 8 earnings-day moves.
The read: A one-to-two-month slip on $4bn of run-rate is not a cancellation, and the market treated it that way. The $6bn still to raise matters more in a week when neocloud debt was repriced.
IonQ · ★ Revenue +336% with a foundry inside, and a raised 2026 guide
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Third-quarter revenue was $173.8m, up 336%: the IonQ Platform segment $90.3m (+127%) and SkyWater Foundry Services $83.5m. Remaining performance obligations more than doubled to $1.2bn. GAAP net income was $564.0m on an $896.2m non-cash gain on warrants; the operating loss widened to $433.1m from $168.8m. IonQ had given no quarterly range; it raised its 2026 revenue guide to $505–515m from $450–460m. It holds $1.7bn of cash, $3.7bn pro forma for the $2.0bn equity raise closed on 16 October.
Market reaction: +4.81% after hours at 19:59 ET on Thursday; opened +8.97% and was +10.95% at $29.32 at 11:17 ET on Friday, 10.30 points better than the S&P 500: the seventh-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves.
The read: Almost half the quarter’s revenue is foundry work, so the 336% says more about the SkyWater purchase than about quantum demand.
Friday 6 November, before the open
Vistra · ★ Adjusted EBITDA +50%, a first 2027 guide of $7.7–8.5bn, and 2027 about 98% hedged
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Third-quarter Ongoing Operations adjusted EBITDA was $2,378m, against $1,581m a year earlier. Vistra narrowed its 2026 guide to $7.1–7.5bn from $6.8–7.6bn, raising the midpoint, and initiated 2027 guidance of $7.7–8.5bn; its $8.1bn midpoint is above the $7.4–7.8bn “midpoint opportunity” it gave in August, which it said was not guidance (our arithmetic). Free cash flow before growth is guided to $4.3–5.1bn. It is about 98% hedged for 2027 and 78% for 2028. It signed a 20-year, 207 MW power purchase agreement at its Odessa gas plant, recorded Cogentrix as closed in October, and added $1.5bn of buybacks.
Market reaction: opened +3.52% and was +8.89% at $122.93 at 11:18 ET on Friday, 8.24 points better than the S&P 500: the fifth-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves.
The read: A 98%-hedged 2027 answers the week’s question for Vistra: its existing plants are sold forward, whatever happens to new builds in Texas.
TeraWulf · ★ Revenue +70% on the quarter, and Google’s backstop of Anthropic’s leases
Results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1, and 8-K Item 1.01 of 4 November). Third-quarter revenue was $76.2m, up 51% on the year and 70% on the June quarter’s $44.8m (our arithmetic); HPC lease revenue $63.0m. The operating loss was $88.2m; net income of $709.9m came from a $728.4m warrant fair-value gain. TeraWulf has 102 MW online and 336 MW under construction, the 438 MW it targets to have energised by the first half of 2027. Google backstops part of Anthropic’s lease obligations at CB-1 to CB-3, from the commencement of each building’s final data hall until, among other end conditions, Anthropic has held investment-grade ratings for three months.
Market reaction: opened +10.57% and was +1.19% at $10.20 at 11:17 ET on Friday, 0.53 points better than the S&P 500: the eleventh-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves.
The read: The backstop covers the years after each building is finished; construction risk stays with TeraWulf.
Themes this week
Beats were the norm; the next quarter set the price. None of the thirteen companies with a revenue guide in dollars missed it, and Booking’s reported revenue fell short of its growth range only because of the $900m FTC reduction. The two that guided the fourth quarter flat on the third were sold: Datadog fell 14.42% on its reaction day and HubSpot was down 9.47% after hours. AppLovin, guiding 8.9% higher at the same margin, rose 31.04% on the market’s worst day.
Memory is now everyone else’s bill. Apple guided its December margin to 45–46% on memory prices (call coverage), Qualcomm’s outlook cites higher input costs including memory, and Arm’s royalties grew 8% on “the impact of memory pricing on the smartphone market”. Counterpoint puts September-quarter DRAM revenue up 369% on about 4% more bits, so the gain is almost all price.
The vote split owners from builders. The companies whose growth needs new US capacity gave back their reaction-day gains: Eaton, onsemi, AMD, Astera Labs and DigitalOcean are all lower than before their results. Vistra, about 98% hedged for 2027 on plants it already owns, rose 8.89% on its print. IREN’s $6bn of unfinanced capex and Google’s backstop of Anthropic’s TeraWulf leases show who carries the building risk.
Travel was the clean part of the week. Marriott’s RevPAR rose 6.5%, Booking’s room nights 7%, Uber’s gross bookings 20% and Airbnb’s nights 16%; all four stocks are higher than before their results (+4.62%, +5.69%, +4.74% and +10.16%) in a week the S&P 500 fell. The marketplaces that grew revenue faster than profit, Shopify (−5.17%) and MercadoLibre (−13.14%), are lower.
Next week on the calendar
| Date | Core Value names reporting (ET) | Also |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 9 Nov | Before the open: Constellation Energy. After the close: Rocket Lab, Zeta Global, The Trade Desk | Taiwan’s short-selling limits take effect |
| Tue 10 Nov | After the close: CoreWeave | 00:30 ET: TSMC October revenue. 08:30 ET: US October CPI |
| Thu 12 Nov | Before the open: Nebius. After the close: Cisco, Applied Materials, Cerebras | – |
| Tue 17 Nov | After the close: Nvidia | – |
Dates and before-open or after-close timing from the Nasdaq earnings calendar, pulled 6 November (Nvidia from the pull of 30 October); TSMC from its financial calendar; CPI from BLS.
Sources
- Results, from each company’s earnings release on sec.gov (8-K Exhibit 99 or 99.1; Arm’s 6-K): Lumentum, Marvell, Marriott, Apple, Palantir, onsemi, Roku, Eaton, Shopify, DigitalOcean, AMD, Arista, Astera Labs, Super Micro, Booking, Uber, Datadog, Qualcomm, Arm, AppLovin, Coherent, HubSpot, MercadoLibre, Cloudflare, Airbnb, IREN, IonQ, Vistra, TeraWulf. Also Booking’s 10-Q (FTC charges), Super Micro’s 10-Q (controls), Coherent’s investor presentation, Uber’s 8-K Item 5.02 and TeraWulf’s 8-K of 4 November (Google credit support).
- Each company’s own guide for the quarter, from its previous earnings release, as linked in our Earnings Radar of 3 November.
- Our Coverage Briefs of 3, 4, 5 and 6 November, where each print was first written up. Apple’s December-quarter guide is from call coverage; IREN’s customer is named by Reuters (5 Nov); Roku’s closing terms are from Fox Corporation’s release (6 Nov); the midterm sell-off from AP and CNBC (5 Nov); DRAM revenue from Counterpoint Research via Korea JoongAng Daily (5 Nov).
- Our studies: Marriott (cost reimbursements 73.3% of revenue), MercadoLibre (credit-loss provisions above operating income).
- Next week’s dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar (api.nasdaq.com), pulled 6 Nov 2026; TSMC financial calendar; BLS release schedule.
- Share prices, opening gaps, day moves, after-hours moves, index levels, earnings-day history and averages: CoreValue price database (Yahoo Finance bars, stored and computed by CoreValue). Reaction days 2–6 Nov; Friday intraday at 11:17–11:19 ET; history against each company’s previous 12 earnings days (fewer for recent listings).
CoreValue Research · Earnings Radar, recap prepared Friday 6 November 2026. Results and guidance come from company filings and releases; every share-price move is from the CoreValue price database. Broker research and Tegus/AlphaSense content were excluded under their terms. Not investment advice.
