The one thing
The midterms put a price on building new data centres, and the market charged it to the builders, not the tenants. Reuters reports that Democrats won both chambers. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa won the governorship after campaigning on tougher limits for data-centre construction, up to a moratorium, and Texas holds about 27% of planned US data-centre capacity (Wells Fargo, via Reuters). Vistra closed down 13.83%, Vertiv 12.89%, nVent 12.72%, IREN 11.24%, CoreWeave 9.90%, Eaton 9.86% and GE Vernova 9.30%. The companies that already own the capacity went the other way: Microsoft rose 6.68%, Amazon 6.12% and Alphabet 3.18%. Reuters’ explanation is that slower construction raises the value of capacity already built. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell 3.13% while the S&P 500 rose 1.58%. The same split shows in credit. Oracle priced its $10bn of new shares at $116.00, 11.2% under the last price quoted in the prospectus, and $10bn of notes at coupons of 7.000% to 8.650%. Microsoft’s $25bn deal, which closed the same day, carries coupons of 4.850% to 6.350%. At every maturity both companies issued, Oracle pays 2.00 to 2.50 percentage points more.
Wednesday 4 November closes: S&P 500 7,688.62 (+1.58%), Dow 53,356.12 (+3.03%), Nasdaq-100 28,437.17 (+0.91%), Philadelphia Semiconductor index 10,268.65 (−3.13%), 10-year Treasury yield 4.89% (−1.17%). Asia had already sold off on Tuesday, before the result: Kospi 5,648.79 (−3.59%), Taiex 43,307.54 (−3.59%). Wednesday’s Asian closes are not in our database yet.
Sector pulse · names with material news, 3–4 Nov (to the 4 Nov close)
Semis: AMD. Networking: Arista and Astera Labs. Hyperscalers: Oracle, Microsoft, TeraWulf, CoreWeave, IREN and Alphabet. Power: Vistra, Vertiv, nVent, Eaton, GE Vernova and Constellation, all on the election. SaaS: Datadog. Ads: Meta. Consumer: Uber and Booking. Hardware: Super Micro. Private labs: Anthropic, through the TeraWulf backstop.
Overnight & last session
Semis & equipment
AMD: Data Center revenue nearly doubles and the fourth-quarter guide is about $17bn, but the stock keeps only 1% of a 5% after-hours gain
Third-quarter revenue was $13.377bn, up 45%, and above the top of AMD’s guidance. Data Center revenue was a record $8.5bn, up 97%, on EPYC CPUs and the launch of the Instinct MI450 GPUs. Client revenue was $2.9bn (+7%), Gaming $773m (−40%) and Embedded $1.1bn (+29%). Non-GAAP gross margin was 56% and non-GAAP EPS $2.09 (+74%). For the fourth quarter AMD guides to revenue of about $17bn ±3%, up about 66% on the year and 27% on the quarter, at a non-GAAP gross margin of about 55%. AMD names Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle Cloud as running workloads on its first Helios racks, and it has agreed to buy World Labs and Taalas. The stock was up 5.02% after hours at 19:59 ET. It closed Wednesday at $488.78, up 1.01%, against a 2.75% fall in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. That is the smallest of its last 13 earnings-day moves.
The read: The guide implies $3.6bn of extra revenue in one quarter at a margin one point lower. That is what a Helios rack ramp looks like: the systems revenue arrives before the systems margin. The market looked through a 66% growth guide on a day when anything tied to new data-centre construction was sold, and AMD still beat its sector ETF by 3.76 points. We update the AMD study with the third-quarter print (revenue $13.4bn, Data Center $8.5bn, +97%) and the fourth-quarter guide of about $17bn at a 55% non-GAAP gross margin.
The rest of the sector traded on the election: Micron −7.00%, Nvidia −3.17%, TSMC ADR −2.24%. We found no company news behind those moves.
Networking & optical
Arista: $3.66bn, up 58.5%, its fastest growth since its IPO, and a $3.9–4.0bn guide
Revenue was $3.66bn, against guidance of $3.3bn: up 20.5% on the quarter and 58.5% on the year. Non-GAAP operating margin was 49.1% and non-GAAP EPS $1.20 (GAAP $1.22). For the fourth quarter Arista guides to revenue of $3.9–4.0bn, a non-GAAP operating margin of 48–49% and non-GAAP EPS of $1.26–1.30. Arista also launched open Ethernet rack-scale scale-up designs with AMD, Arm, Broadcom, d-Matrix, Meta, Microsoft and Qualcomm. The stock was up 9.47% after hours and closed up 5.04% at $178.48, beating the semiconductor ETF by 7.79 points.
The read: Arista gave back half its after-hours gain but still finished up on a day when the sector fell 3%. Networking is spent inside data centres that already exist or are being fitted out, so it is less exposed to a Texas permitting fight than the power names. The scale-up rack designs take Arista inside the rack, not only between racks. We update the Arista study with the third-quarter print ($3.66bn, +58.5%) and the fourth-quarter guide of $3.9–4.0bn.
Astera Labs: revenue up 154% and a guide of $730–750m, and the stock still falls 4.4%
Revenue was $584.9m, up 49% on the quarter and 154% on the year. Non-GAAP gross margin was 72.4% and non-GAAP operating margin 44.7%. The fourth-quarter guide is $730–750m of revenue at about a 72% gross margin, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.62–1.66. Astera opened 6.70% lower and closed down 4.43% at $223.27.
The read: The guide is another 26% sequential step at the midpoint (our arithmetic), and the stock fell anyway. Investors were selling the AI-connectivity group on the day, whatever the print said.
Hyperscalers & neoclouds
Oracle prices its $20bn: shares at $116.00 and notes at 7.000–8.650%
Oracle sold 86,206,897 shares at $116.00, raising $10.0bn gross and $9.88bn after the underwriting discount. The prospectus quotes a last price of $130.67 on 30 October, so the offer is 11.2% below it. The concurrent $10bn of notes come in five tranches: $2.0bn at 7.000% due 2029, $1.75bn at 7.450% due 2031, $2.25bn at 7.850% due 2033, $2.5bn at 8.000% due 2037 and $1.5bn at 8.650% due 2046. Microsoft’s 8-K, filed the same day, records the closing of its $25bn of notes underwritten on 29 October, at fixed coupons from 4.850% (2028) to 6.350% (2066). At the maturities both issued, Oracle pays 7.000% against 5.000% (2029), 7.450% against 5.200% (2031), 7.850% against 5.350% (2033) and 8.650% against 6.150% (2046). Separately, the Financial Times reports that Oracle has cancelled its roughly $7bn, five-year deal to lease about 100,000 AI chips to Tencent in Southeast Asia, after US officials raised concerns. Reuters, carrying the report, said it could not verify it, and neither company commented. Oracle closed at $123.73 (−1.95%), 6.7% above the offer price; Microsoft closed at $555.80 (+6.68%).
The read: An 8.000% coupon on 2037 money is 3.1 points over the 4.89% 10-year Treasury yield. That is 2.45 points more than Microsoft pays for its 2036 notes, close to the same maturity. The Tencent cancellation, if confirmed, removes a counterparty Oracle had been expected to fill capacity with, in the same week it borrowed at those rates to build more. We update the Oracle study with the terms of the 4 November financing: 86,206,897 shares at $116.00 and $10bn of notes at coupons of 7.000% to 8.650%.
Google agrees to stand behind Anthropic’s rent at TeraWulf’s Kentucky campus
TeraWulf’s subsidiary Raylan Data signed a 20-year lease with Anthropic in July for about 401 MW of critical IT load at Hawesville, Kentucky. Delivery runs in phases from late 2027 to the second quarter of 2028. On 4 November Google LLC signed three credit-support agreements, one for each building (CB-1 to CB-3). If Anthropic defaults on rent or becomes insolvent, Google may pay the rent due and take over the lease, or in some cases pay a termination fee, which gives it the right to an equity interest in Raylan. Each backstop takes effect when the last data hall in its building starts paying rent. It ends once Anthropic, or a guarantor affiliate, has held certain investment-grade ratings for at least three months. Press reports put the leases’ value at $19bn; that figure is not in the 8-K. TeraWulf closed at $11.70 (−6.62%).
The read: A hyperscaler is guaranteeing the credit of an AI lab that does not yet have an investment-grade rating, which makes the lease a stronger asset for the landlord. The guarantee comes off when Anthropic reaches investment grade, which links the lease’s financing to how the Anthropic IPO is received. We update the TeraWulf study with Google’s credit support for the three Anthropic leases at Hawesville and the investment-grade condition that ends it.
The neoclouds sell off with the builders, not with the hyperscalers
IREN closed down 11.24%, CoreWeave 9.90%, Applied Digital 6.74% and Nebius 6.67%. Reuters ties the moves to the Democratic sweep and the Texas result. Amazon (+6.12%) and Alphabet (+3.18%) rose. CoreWeave reports on 10 November, after the close.
The read: The market is separating companies that need to build, and therefore need permits and capital, from companies that already own capacity. The neoclouds fall on the building side because their growth depends on new sites coming online.
Power & data-centre infrastructure
The power and cooling names take the election’s worst day
Vistra closed down 13.83%, Vertiv 12.89%, nVent 12.72%, Eaton 9.86%, GE Vernova 9.30% and Constellation 6.71%. Reuters reports that renewables rallied on the same result. Eaton’s 3 November release had reported a 46% rise in its Electrical backlog. Vistra reports on 6 November, before the open.
The read: None of these companies filed new guidance on Wednesday in our SEC sweep. The sell-off prices a risk to orders not yet placed, not to the backlog already booked. Vistra’s 6 November call is the first chance for a management team in this group to say how much of its Texas pipeline is contracted.
SaaS & enterprise software
Datadog: revenue up 35%, but a fourth-quarter guide no higher than the quarter just reported
Third-quarter revenue was $1.20bn, up 35%. Non-GAAP operating margin was 28% and free cash flow $251m. Customers with $100,000 or more of ARR rose 20%, to about 4,860. The fourth-quarter guide is revenue of $1.19–1.20bn, which at the top only matches the third quarter. Full-year 2026 revenue is guided to $4.515–4.525bn. The stock opened 9.42% lower and closed down 14.42% at $188.72, its fifth-largest earnings-day move in 13 prints, 15.30 points worse than the software ETF.
The read: A guide that does not grow on the quarter, from a company that grew 35% on the year, means the fourth quarter has a known gap. It could be a large customer optimising usage or a large AI customer insourcing, and the release says neither. The sequential guide is the first number to check on the next print. We update the Datadog study with the third-quarter print ($1.20bn, +35%) and the fourth-quarter guide of $1.19–1.20bn, flat on the quarter just reported.
Ads & adtech
Meta raises $15bn in dollars and opens its first euro bond sale
Reuters reports that Meta raised $15bn in a five-part dollar bond sale, with orders as high as $58bn. On 4 November it filed a preliminary prospectus for its first euro-denominated bonds: six tranches, which press reports put at maturities of 4 to 38 years and a size of up to €9bn. Final euro pricing was not public at the close, and both prospectus supplements leave sizes and coupons blank. Meta closed at $630.00 (+1.44%).
The read: Meta is now borrowing in two currencies in two days. Opening the euro market gives the hyperscalers a second pool of lenders as US investment-grade supply builds. Once the euro coupons are known, they can be set beside Oracle’s to price the gap between the two borrowers.
Consumer platforms & commerce
Uber: gross bookings up 20%, adjusted EBITDA up 31%, and its policy chief leaves
Gross bookings were $59.8bn, up 20% (Mobility +18%, Delivery +22%). Revenue was $14.77bn (+10%), and Mobility revenue fell 2% to $7.52bn. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.0bn (+31%), 5.0% of gross bookings, and free cash flow $2.54bn. The fourth-quarter guide is gross bookings of $63.25–65.25bn (+18% to 22% in constant currency) and adjusted EBITDA of $3.13–3.23bn. Uber expects about 700 fully driverless vehicles on its network by year-end and more than 2,000 in 2027. The 8-K also says Jill Hazelbaker, President and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, leaves on 30 November; Axios reports she joins OpenAI. Uber closed up 4.91% at $69.87.
The read: Mobility gross bookings grew 18% while Mobility revenue fell, so less of each ride now shows up as Uber’s revenue. The release says business-model changes cut total revenue growth by 8 percentage points, but it does not give the Mobility share of that.
Booking: bookings up 10%, revenue down 1% after $1.0bn of FTC charges
Room nights grew 7% and gross bookings 10%. Reported revenue fell 1%, which the 10-Q attributes mainly to a $900m reduction in revenue for the FTC matter. That matter concerns Priceline’s disclosures, fees, customer support and billing practices. The 10-Q also books a $100m loss accrual in general and administrative expense, so the charges total $1.0bn. It says a settlement has not been agreed and litigation remains possible. Adding the $900m back, revenue would have grown about 9% (our arithmetic). The stock closed up 9.83% at $170.97, its second-largest earnings-day move in 13 prints.
The read: TIKR had reported more than $500m at stake before the print. The stock rose as if $1.0bn put a ceiling on the matter, but the 10-Q says no settlement has been agreed.
Hardware & devices
Super Micro: $19.9bn of sales at a 12.7% gross margin, and cash flow negative
Fiscal first-quarter net sales were $19.9bn, against $11.1bn in the June quarter and $5.0bn a year earlier. Gross margin fell to 12.7% from 17.5% in the June quarter. Net income was $1,594m and diluted EPS $1.75. Operations used $434m of cash. Super Micro ended September with $6.9bn of cash and $8.6bn of bank debt and convertible notes. It guides the December quarter to $19.5–21.5bn and fiscal 2027 to $72–82bn. The stock closed down 5.70% at $29.60; Dell fell 8.82% and HPE 5.67% on the day.
The read: Sales nearly quadrupled on the year while gross margin fell by almost five points in a quarter and operations used cash. Super Micro is growing on low-margin rack volume that it pays for up front.
Private labs
Anthropic’s Kentucky leases now carry a Google guarantee until it reaches investment grade
See the TeraWulf item above. The Hawesville leases were amended on 4 November alongside the credit-support agreements (8-K Item 8.01). The amendments are not described.
The read: Google now sits behind part of Anthropic’s lease obligations, with a path to equity in the landlord’s subsidiary. The IPO prospectus is where Anthropic has to describe its relationships with Google in full.
Capex guidance · current full year, $bn
No company in this window changed a full-year capex guide; all bars are carried from the 3 November edition. Bars are scaled to the midpoint of each range.
| Company | Period | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon | CY2026, reaffirmed 29 Oct | ~220 |
| Alphabet | CY2026, held on 28 Oct call | 195–205 |
| Microsoft | ~FY to Jun 2027, period disputed | ~170 |
| Meta | CY2026 | 135–145 |
| Oracle | FY to May 2027, gross | 90–95 |
| Samsung | CY2026, KRW 84.4tn | ~63 |
| TSMC | CY2026 | 60–64 |
| Micron | FY to Aug 2027, implied | >50 |
| CoreWeave | CY2026 | 35–39 |
| Intel | CY2026, gross; from the July call | >20 |
Do not add them up: periods and definitions differ. Meta includes principal payments on finance leases and Alphabet excludes them. Alphabet’s range was set in July and reported as held on the 28 October call. Microsoft’s ~$170bn comes from call coverage that disagrees on the period and on finance leases. Amazon’s is cash capex net of proceeds and incentives. Oracle’s is gross: secondary reports put about $70bn as Oracle’s own spend and $20–25bn as customer-repaid. Samsung’s converts 84.4tn won at the rate implied by KED Global on 28 October. Micron’s is our arithmetic from its first-half guide. Intel gave no full-year figure on the October call; the >$20bn is from July.
Where each name stands · verified names only
Rows are limited to names with a print verified against a company or filing source in recent editions; other names are left out rather than estimated. Rows dated 3–4 November are new in this edition.
| Name | Last print | Key figures (as reported) |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | ||
| TSMC (TSM) | Sept sales, 8 Oct | NT$511.86bn, +54.6% y/y |
| Lam Research (LRCX) | 21 Oct | Revenue $8.22bn; EPS $2.20; December-quarter guide about $8.6bn |
| Western Digital (WDC) | 22 Oct | Revenue $4.38bn; non-GAAP EPS $4.64 |
| Cadence (CDNS) | 26 Oct | Revenue $1.633bn (+22%); non-GAAP EPS $2.11; FY26 guide $6.387–6.417bn; backlog $8.2bn |
| NXP (NXPI) | 27 Oct | Revenue $3.786bn (+19%); non-GAAP EPS $4.20; Q4 guide $3.75–3.95bn |
| SK hynix (000660.KS) | 28 Oct | Revenue 104.6tn won (+328%); operating profit 83.3tn (80% margin); 2026 returns ~100tn won |
| KLA (KLAC) | 28 Oct | Revenue $4.136bn; non-GAAP EPS $1.22; Dec-quarter guide $4.7bn ± $0.2bn |
| Samsung (005930.KS) | 29 Oct | Revenue 195.3tn won; operating profit 107.4tn; DS 106.5tn; 2026 capex ~84.4tn won |
| Intel (INTC) | 29 Oct | Revenue $16.5bn (+21%); DCAI $7.3bn (+78%); non-GAAP GM 44.1%; Q4 guide $15.0–16.0bn at 38.0% GM |
| Sandisk (SNDK) | 29 Oct | Revenue $11.03bn (+378%); GM 85.0%; FQ2 guide $12.2–12.6bn; 8-for-1 split, adjusted trading from 20 Nov |
| Monolithic Power (MPWR) | 29 Oct | Revenue $1.202bn (+63.1%); Q4 guide $1.315–1.385bn |
| MediaTek (2454.TW) | 30 Oct | Revenue NT$168.06bn (+18.3%); GM 46.3% (call coverage, not company documents) |
| onsemi (ON) | 2 Nov | Revenue $1,722m (+11%); non-GAAP GM 41.2%; non-GAAP EPS $0.90; AI DC +175%; Q4 guide $1,715–1,815m; Ferric $600m + up to $175m |
| Marvell (MRVL) | Prelim FQ3, 2 Nov | FQ3 revenue in line with guidance, range narrowed to ±2%; Lumentum deal 4.500 shares, $115bn EV, close 1H 2028 |
| AMD | 3 Nov | Revenue $13.377bn (+45%); Data Center $8.5bn (+97%); non-GAAP GM 56%; non-GAAP EPS $2.09; Q4 guide ~$17bn ±3% at ~55% GM |
| Networking & optical | ||
| Lumentum (LITE) | 2 Nov | Revenue $1,262.6m (+136.5%); non-GAAP GM 53.2%, op margin 42.3%; non-GAAP EPS $4.57; FQ2 guide $1.575–1.625bn |
| Arista (ANET) | 3 Nov | Revenue $3.66bn (+58.5%); non-GAAP op margin 49.1%; non-GAAP EPS $1.20; Q4 guide $3.9–4.0bn |
| Astera Labs (ALAB) | 3 Nov | Revenue $584.9m (+154%); non-GAAP op margin 44.7%; Q4 guide $730–750m |
| Hyperscalers & neoclouds | ||
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | 28 Oct | Revenue $127.6bn (+25%); Cloud $30.7bn (+103%); capex $51.4bn; FCF −$9.1bn; EPS $2.12 |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | 28 Oct | Revenue $92.3bn (+19%); Azure +48%; commercial RPO $677bn (+73%); EPS $4.92 |
| Amazon (AMZN) | 29 Oct | Net sales $201.9bn (+12%); AWS $46.0bn (+39%), 38.7% margin; EPS $1.89; TTM FCF −$42.4bn |
| DigitalOcean (DOCN) | 3 Nov | Revenue $321m (+40%); ARR $1,285m; AI customer ARR $376m (+288%); 2027 growth guide 60%+; $1bn ATM |
| Power & data-centre infrastructure | ||
| GE Vernova (GEV) | 28 Oct | Orders $29bn (+96% organic); revenue $12.6bn (+27%); backlog $197bn; FY26 FCF $16–17bn |
| Vertiv (VRT) | 28 Oct | Net sales $4.313bn (+61%); organic orders >+100%; FY26 guide $14.45–14.85bn |
| AEP | 28 Oct | Operating EPS $2.23; $100bn 2027–31 capital plan |
| Equinix (EQIX) | 28 Oct | Revenue $2.571bn (+11%); AFFO/share $11.64 (+18%); FY26 guide $10.325–10.365bn |
| Digital Realty (DLR) | 29 Oct | Revenue $1.9bn (+21%); core FFO $2.10; bookings $855m; FY26 core FFO guide $8.30–8.35 |
| nVent (NVT) | 30 Oct | Sales $1.515bn (+44% organic); adj EPS $1.52; FY26 adj EPS guide $5.36–5.39 |
| Dominion (D) | 30 Oct | Operating EPS $1.28; top half of $3.45–3.69 FY26 range |
| Bloom Energy (BE) | 22 Oct | Revenue about $1.24bn, +138% y/y |
| Eaton (ETN) | 3 Nov | Sales $8.9bn (+28%, 19% organic); segment margin 25.3%; adj EPS $3.68; Electrical backlog +46%; FY26 adj EPS $13.70–13.80 |
| SaaS & enterprise software | ||
| IBM | 21 Oct | Revenue $17.1bn; adj EPS $2.95 (secondary) |
| Fortinet (FTNT) | 28 Oct | Revenue $2.078bn (+20%); billings $2.336bn (+29%); FY26 service guide cut to $5.150–5.170bn |
| ServiceNow (NOW) | 28 Oct | Subscription $3.988bn (+21%); cRPO $13.65bn (+20.5%); Q4 cRPO guide +18.5% cc |
| Palantir (PLTR) | 2 Nov | Revenue $2.313bn (+96%); US commercial $984m (+148%); adj op margin 62%; TCV $2.918bn (+6%); FY26 guide $8.530–8.534bn |
| Datadog (DDOG) | 4 Nov | Revenue $1.20bn (+35%); non-GAAP op margin 28%; FCF $251m; Q4 guide $1.19–1.20bn; FY26 $4.515–4.525bn |
| Ads & adtech | ||
| Meta (META) | 21 Oct | Revenue $64.6bn (+26%); Q3 capex $34.9bn; FCF about −$2.1bn |
| Netflix (NFLX) | 20 Oct | Revenue $12.87bn; EPS $0.87 |
| Reddit (RDDT) | 29 Oct | Revenue $895m (+53%); DAUq 130.3m (+12%); Q4 guide $1.000–1.030bn |
| Roku (ROKU) | 2 Nov | Revenue $1.502bn (+24%); platform $1.308bn (+23%); operating income $164.1m; net income $183.3m |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | ||
| DoorDash (DASH) | 29 Oct | Revenue $4.616bn (+34%); GOV $33.9bn (+36%); adj EBITDA $1.06bn; Instacart deal ~$17bn |
| Marriott (MAR) | 2 Nov | Worldwide RevPAR +6.5% (US & Canada +7.4%); adj EPS $3.02; adj EBITDA $1,512m |
| Shopify (SHOP) | 3 Nov | Revenue $3,742m (+32%); GMV $119.1bn; operating income $568m; FCF margin 22%; Q4 revenue growth low-thirties |
| Booking (BKNG) | 3 Nov | Room nights +7%; gross bookings +10%; revenue −1% after a $900m FTC revenue reduction plus a $100m accrual; no settlement agreed |
| Uber (UBER) | 4 Nov | Gross bookings $59.8bn (+20%); revenue $14.77bn (+10%); adj EBITDA $3.0bn (+31%); Q4 GB guide $63.25–65.25bn |
| Hardware & devices | ||
| Apple (AAPL) | 2 Nov | Revenue $114.5bn (+12%); GM 47.9% (incl. ~1pt tariff refunds); EPS $2.10; FY26 revenue $479bn; Dec-qtr GM guide 45–46% (call coverage) |
| Super Micro (SMCI) | 3 Nov | Net sales $19.9bn; GM 12.7%; diluted EPS $1.75; operating cash flow −$434m; FQ2 guide $19.5–21.5bn; FY27 $72–82bn |
| Space & mobility | ||
| SpaceX (SPCX) | 20 Oct | Revenue about $14.6bn, of which AI $7.6bn |
| Tesla (TSLA) | 21 Oct | Revenue $28.05bn; adj EPS $0.48 (secondary) |
| Private labs | ||
| Anthropic | S-1/A, 2 Nov | Nine-month 2026 revenue $33.2bn (+1,206%); Q3 $16,956m; FY2025 $4.6bn; top five customers ~25%; Nasdaq ticker ANT; price range not set |
| OpenAI | MSFT 10-Q, 28 Oct | Microsoft recorded $10.0bn of revenue from OpenAI in the September quarter (Microsoft’s related-party disclosure) |
On the calendar · times in ET
| Date | Event | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov, after close | Qualcomm; Arm; AppLovin; Coherent; HubSpot; MercadoLibre. All reported; covered in the 5 November edition | SEC filings |
| Thu 5 Nov, after close | Cloudflare; Airbnb; IREN; IonQ | Nasdaq calendar |
| Fri 6 Nov | 08:30 ET: US October jobs report. Before open: Vistra; TeraWulf | BLS; Nasdaq calendar |
| Mon 9 Nov | Before open: Constellation Energy. Sandisk split record date (close of business) | Nasdaq calendar; company 8-K |
| Week of 9 Nov | Anthropic IPO marketing could begin; the price range comes in a further S-1 amendment | Reported |
| Tue 10 Nov | 00:30 ET (13:30 Taipei): TSMC October revenue. 08:30 ET: US October CPI. After close: CoreWeave | TSMC calendar; BLS; Nasdaq calendar |
| Thu 12 Nov | Nebius Q3; Applied Materials (after close) | StreetInsider; Nasdaq calendar |
| Tue 17 Nov | Nvidia fiscal Q3 (after close). Virginia SCC hearings on the NextEra–Dominion merger begin | Nasdaq calendar; WHRO |
| Wed 18 Nov | Palo Alto Networks fiscal Q1 2027 | Company announcement (via TradingView) |
| Fri 20 Nov | Sandisk trades split-adjusted (8-for-1) | Company 8-K |
| 30 Nov | Jill Hazelbaker leaves Uber | Uber 8-K |
| 8–9 Dec | FOMC meeting, with projections | Federal Reserve |
| 10 Dec | Oracle fiscal Q2 | TIKR (not yet on Oracle’s site) |
| Late 2027 to Q2 2028 | Phased delivery of TeraWulf’s Hawesville halls to Anthropic; Google’s backstop takes effect hall by hall | TeraWulf 8-K |
Dates other than those from filings are carried from the Nasdaq calendar pulled on 30 October.
Story worth owning
The AI build-out now has a credit curve, and it can be read off two filings. Microsoft and Oracle both closed or priced fixed-rate notes this week at the same maturities: 2029, 2031, 2033 and 2046. Oracle pays 2.00 points more at the short end and 2.50 points more at 2033 and 2046. A gap that widens with maturity means lenders are charging Oracle more the further out the money goes, which is a view on whether the cash from AI capacity arrives in time. Two companies, the same week, the same tenors: the spread between the two coupon lists is a direct reading of how lenders price the build-out risk, without leaning on a credit rating. The table writes itself from the two prospectuses, and Meta’s euro coupons, once priced, can be added as a third line.
Sources
- AMD, third quarter 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 — 3 Nov 2026
- Arista Networks, third quarter 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 — 3 Nov 2026
- Astera Labs, third quarter 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 — 3 Nov 2026
- Oracle, prospectus supplement for 86,206,897 shares (424B5) — 4 Nov 2026
- Oracle, prospectus supplement for $10bn senior notes (424B2) — 4 Nov 2026
- Microsoft, 8-K on the $25bn notes (Item 8.01) — 4 Nov 2026
- Reuters via Business Standard, “Oracle abandons $7 billion Tencent AI deal under Trump pressure, FT reports” — 4 Nov 2026
- TeraWulf, 8-K on the Google credit support agreements — 4 Nov 2026
- Reuters via Investing.com, “AI data center stocks dip, renewables surge after Democrat sweep in US midterm elections” — 4 Nov 2026
- Yahoo Finance, “AI Data Centre Stocks Fall as Democratic Midterm Victory Raises Regulatory Concerns” — 4 Nov 2026
- Datadog, third quarter 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 — 4 Nov 2026
- Reuters via Investing.com, “Meta raises $15 billion in five-part US bond sale” — 3 Nov 2026
- Meta, preliminary prospectus supplement for euro notes (424B5) — 4 Nov 2026
- Le Private Banker, “Meta seeks up to €9 billion in debut euro bond sale” — 4 Nov 2026
- Uber, third quarter 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 — 4 Nov 2026
- Uber, 8-K Item 5.02 (Hazelbaker departure) — 4 Nov 2026
- Booking Holdings, third quarter 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 — 3 Nov 2026
- Booking Holdings, 10-Q for the quarter to 30 Sep 2026 — 3 Nov 2026
- TIKR, Booking Holdings faces FTC action: “more than $500 million” at stake — October 2026
- Super Micro Computer, first quarter fiscal 2027 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 — 3 Nov 2026
- Calendar: Nasdaq earnings calendar, pulled 30 Oct 2026 nasdaq.com; BLS release schedules bls.gov; Federal Reserve FOMC calendar federalreserve.gov; TSMC financial calendar investor.tsmc.com.
- Capex guidance, and “Where each name stands” rows dated before 3 Nov, are carried forward from the 2 October to 3 November editions and their cited filings.
- Prices, index levels and market moves (US closes 3 and 4 Nov; Seoul and Taipei closes 3 Nov; after-hours bars 3 Nov; earnings reactions and their ranks against each company’s last 12 prints), CoreValue price database (Yahoo Finance bars), pulled 4 Nov 2026 after the close.
Figures are as reported by the cited company filings and press sources and have not been independently verified against audited filings beyond the documents linked. Press reports are labelled as such. Prices and market moves: CoreValue price database (Yahoo Finance bars), as of the 16:00 ET close on 4 November 2026; after-hours figures are the last 1-minute bar at 19:59 ET on 3 November. Nothing here is investment advice. Prepared for CoreValue Research internal review before publication, 4 November 2026 (after-market edition).
