Thursday, 10 September 2026 · 07:00 BRT · US opens in 3h 30m, at 10:30 BRT
The one thing
TSMC’s August revenue was NT$514,806m, up 53.3% year on year and 10.1% on July. It is the first month the company has ever cleared NT$500bn, and the fourth consecutive record. Eight months into the year the cumulative figure is NT$3,386,870m, 39.3% ahead of 2025. That is not a guide, a conference remark or a sell-side model. It is a monthly disclosure from the one company every AI unit has to pass through, and it says the volume is real and still accelerating.
Which makes tonight the interesting half. Oracle reports its fiscal first quarter after the US close carrying a $638bn backlog booked at the June quarter and a capital budget that runs well ahead of the cash the business generates. Yesterday Amazon sold its first ever sterling bond, a four-part £4.25bn deal worth roughly $5.8bn, taking its 2026 issuance past $80bn. The two events are the same story from opposite ends: TSMC is being paid in cash for wafers that are, increasingly, being bought with borrowed money.
The third strand arrived overnight and is regulatory. The New York Times reported, with Reuters and Bloomberg following, that the US Department of Justice is examining whether NVIDIA structured its licensing arrangement with Groq to avoid the antitrust review a straight acquisition would have triggered. Bloomberg put the deal at $20bn; other outlets have used $17bn. Coming a week after the $12.93bn Hugging Face agreement, it puts a live legal question over the mechanism by which NVIDIA has been absorbing the AI stack around itself.
Macro overlay: Brent has held above $100 and crossed $101, US equities closed lower on Wednesday with the S&P 500 down about 0.5%, and futures were firmer into this morning with Treasury yields near their highs. Oil above three figures is the one variable that can turn an AI-capex debt story into a rates story.
Sector pulse — covered names with material news
| Sector | Names with news | What moved |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | 2 | TSM’s August print; NVDA drew a DOJ probe overnight |
| Cloud & AI infrastructure | 2 | ORCL reports tonight; AMZN’s debut sterling bond |
| SaaS & enterprise software | 2 | ADBE reports tonight; CRM in talks for Listen Labs |
| Ads & adtech | 1 | TTD is cutting 15% of staff |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | 1 | BKNG lost its eTraveli appeal in Luxembourg |
| Hardware & devices | 0 | Quiet — the Apple keynote was yesterday’s story |
| Space & mobility | 1 | SPCX fell on the first lock-up expiry |
Overnight & last session
Semis & equipment — 16 names covered
TSMC clears NT$500bn in a month for the first time, and August is the fourth straight record
August consolidated revenue was NT$514,806m, +53.3% against August 2025 and +10.1% against July’s NT$467,580m. January to August now stands at NT$3,386,870m, +39.3% year on year. The figures are unaudited, as every monthly release is. The company’s own 2026 framing, set at the July quarter, was revenue growth above 40% and capital expenditure of $60–64bn, itself raised roughly 15% from the previous guide.
Note the shape rather than the level. Eight-month cumulative growth is 39.3% and the single month is 53.3%, so the second half is running materially hotter than the first. A guide of “above 40%” for the full year is now the floor, not the target, unless September and the December quarter decelerate hard.
The read: the monthly series is the highest-frequency honest number in the whole AI complex, and it is currently pulling away from the annual guide it is measured against. That gap is the publishable object. Her TSMC study already rebuilt chapter six from the master workbook through FY2025, so the machinery to re-derive the revenue chapter exists; the piece to write is the one that puts monthly actuals against the guide TSMC gave in July and asks what the fourth-quarter implied run rate now has to be for management to have been merely accurate. It is also the cleanest cross-check available on Broadcom’s 221% AI growth and NVIDIA’s data-centre line — all three are drawing from the same wafer supply.
The DOJ is asking whether the Groq licence was an acquisition wearing a different hat
The New York Times reported overnight that the Department of Justice is investigating whether NVIDIA structured its licensing arrangement with the AI inference start-up Groq specifically to sidestep the merger review a purchase would have required. Reuters, Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance carried the story within hours. Reported deal value ranges from $17bn to $20bn, and the arrangement licenses technology rather than buying the company. Separately, NVIDIA announced on 9 September an expansion of AI infrastructure capacity with eight Australian data-centre partners, covering land, power and shell capacity for several generations of its DSX systems and reaching up to 2GW by 2027, and on 10 September a sovereign supply-chain collaboration with Palantir.
The read: this is the structural risk her Marvell, Cerebras and Qualcomm work has been circling from the other direction. Those studies all turned on non-cash instruments — customer warrants booked against revenue, warrants issued to Amazon, a Google warrant implying $120bn against $18bn of guidance. The Groq licence is the same instinct applied to corporate control rather than to revenue: use a structure that does not trip the disclosure or review regime that the plain version of the transaction would. A note that lines up NVIDIA’s licence-not-purchase, Marvell’s and Qualcomm’s warrants-not-price, and Cerebras deducting warrants from revenue would establish a pattern across four covered names, and it is genuinely uncovered territory.
Cloud & AI infrastructure — 8 names covered
Oracle’s first quarter is the market’s tolerance test for AI leverage
Oracle reports fiscal 2027 first-quarter results after the US close today. The set-up, from the filed fourth-quarter release of 10 June: remaining performance obligations of $638bn, of which roughly $75bn is customer prepaid or customer-supplied hardware and only 12% is expected to convert inside twelve months; Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue up 93%; fiscal 2026 capital expenditure of $55.663bn. On the call, not in the release, management guided fiscal-2027 net capex to about $70bn and around $40bn of debt and equity financing. Bloomberg framed today’s print as a test of the market’s tolerance for AI spending risk; the Motley Fool noted the capital budget is more than twice the cash the business produces. Options pricing implies a move of roughly 11%. On 8 September Oracle issued a request for proposals for 2GW of renewable energy in New Mexico for its Project Jupiter site.
The read: the number that matters tonight is not RPO growth, which faces a brutal base effect after last year’s 363% print, but the conversion line — how much of the backlog turned into recognised revenue, and what fiscal 2027 capex and financing are now guided to. Watch for the RPO growth rate to fall sharply while the absolute figure rises; several previews are already flagging a drop toward 40%. If Oracle guides capex up again without a matching financing plan, the read across to CoreWeave is immediate and negative, and that is the tripwire her AI bubble radar was built for.
Amazon’s debut sterling bond takes 2026 borrowing past $80bn
Amazon raised £4.25bn in a four-part deal, its first ever sterling issuance, priced on 9 September. Reuters put the proceeds at “almost $6 billion” and a lead-manager figure of $5.8bn circulated on the same day. The order book was reported above £11bn, roughly two and a half times the size of the deal. Coverage tied the proceeds explicitly to AI infrastructure. Cumulative 2026 bond sales are now reported above $80bn. Amazon’s 2026 capital expenditure guidance stands at roughly $220bn, and the company has said capacity will not meet demand through 2027.
The read: a company with Amazon’s cash generation opening an entirely new currency market is a capital-structure signal, not a treasury convenience. It means dollar demand for tech paper is being managed rather than assumed, and it is exactly the behaviour to track for the financing chapter. Her Amazon report already carries the capex and cash-flow spine; adding a currency-by-currency issuance table for 2026 across Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle would show whether the hyperscalers are diversifying funding because they want to or because they have to. The distinction is the whole argument.
SaaS & enterprise software — 11 names covered
Adobe reports for the first time since naming its next chief executive
Adobe releases fiscal 2026 third-quarter results today, a date confirmed by the company on 31 August. It is the first print since 3 September, when Adobe named Anil Chakravarthy President and Chief Executive effective 1 December 2026, with Shantanu Narayen moving to Executive Chair — an announcement the shares fell roughly 7% on. Previews are focused on AI annual recurring revenue and paid conversion, and Barron’s noted that AI concerns have weighed on the stock into the print.
The read: the succession makes this quarter’s disclosure choices unusually informative. Outgoing management has little incentive to change a definition, and incoming management has every incentive to reset the base before it owns the comparison. Her Adobe study already found that fiscal 2025 segments do not foot and that the chart data needs an explicit identifier to render, so the segment build is fragile to exactly this kind of reclassification. Worth watching for any change to how AI ARR is defined tonight — a metric introduced by one CEO and inherited by another rarely survives unaltered.
Salesforce is in talks to buy Listen Labs for around $2bn
Business Insider reported on 9 September that Salesforce has held talks to acquire Listen Labs, an AI customer-research platform, for roughly $2bn. TechCrunch followed, reporting that Listen Labs abandoned a funding round — variously described as $1.5bn in valuation terms and a $125m raise — while the Salesforce discussions were live. Nothing has been confirmed by either company. Salesforce reported a record fiscal 2027 second quarter on 26 August.
The read: if it closes, it is a small deal in dollars and a large one in accounting. ServiceNow has spent $11.2bn on Moveworks, Veza and Armis, and her ServiceNow study found the row that invents buybacks and the split that breaks at two points — acquisition-heavy software issuers are where the model breaks. A comparative note on how Salesforce, ServiceNow and Adobe are each absorbing AI acquisitions into segment reporting would be a useful piece of plumbing work, and she already holds the master workbooks for all three.
Ads & adtech — 5 names covered
The Trade Desk is cutting 15% of its workforce and reorganising into pods
The Trade Desk announced on 4 September that it will reduce global headcount by 15% and restructure into what it describes as smaller pods, roughly 575 roles, with charges of up to $51m. It lost its place in the S&P 500 on the same day. Coverage through 8 September noted the cuts reach Singapore and other international teams, and framed the move against a roughly 70% decline in the shares this year.
The read: this is the first covered adtech name to take a restructuring charge in this cycle, and it lands while Meta’s ad machine and Amazon’s retail media both keep compounding. The angle is not the layoff, it is the admission of operating deleverage in the independent demand-side platform model at exactly the moment the walled gardens are absorbing more of the buy. Her digital advertising study has the share data to frame it; the hbar axis fix built on 4 September is still not uploaded, so the chart work would need that push first.
Consumer platforms & commerce — 5 names covered
Booking loses its court fight over the vetoed eTraveli deal
The EU General Court on 9 September upheld the European Commission’s veto of Booking’s €1.63bn eTraveli acquisition, dismissing the company’s challenge. Reuters reported that the court acknowledged errors in the Commission’s own calculations but upheld the block regardless. The shares fell on the decision. Booking also presented at the Goldman Sachs conference the same day, on AI, loyalty and growth.
The read: a closed door on inorganic flight distribution in Europe means the loyalty and direct-booking push has to carry the mix shift alone. Her Booking study already flags that the 4Q25 column is a model estimate and that operating income is struck before the goodwill impairment — a blocked acquisition is a reminder that the goodwill line on that balance sheet is the record of the deals that did complete. Small item; worth a paragraph, not a note.
Space & mobility — 2 names covered
The first lock-up expiry releases a reported $47.2bn of SpaceX stock
SpaceX shares fell about 5% on 9 September as a lock-up expiry released a reported $47.2bn of insider stock, with a second tranche described as still to come. The shares were reported trading around 11% above the $135 price at which the 12 June listing was struck — a listing that closed its first day at $161.11, so the stock is below where it first traded. Separately, a report described the company facing a $920m deadline over AI data-centre facilities built without backup power, and the UK government committed close to $40m to Starlink services.
The read: the lock-up is mechanical and will pass, but it is the first real float SpaceX has had, and it is the first time the market can price the company without the scarcity premium of a controlled register. Her SpaceX study notes that every consolidated figure before February 2026 is a pro-forma recast for the xAI and X common-control mergers — so the first genuinely clean comparison for public shareholders is still two quarters away. That gap between a freely traded stock and a comparable financial history is itself worth writing about.
Quiet elsewhere. Hardware and devices had nothing new: Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro and foldable launch was Tuesday’s event and John Ternus took over as chief executive on 1 September, both already covered. Dell, Cisco, Qualcomm, Intel, AMD, Micron, ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, Cadence, Synopsys, Texas Instruments and Arm produced conference commentary and analyst notes but no company disclosures. Netflix, Roku, Zeta, Meta, Airbnb, Uber, Shopify, Walmart, Tesla, Workday, HubSpot, SAP, Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, MongoDB, Snowflake, Datadog, ServiceNow, Cloudflare, Vertiv and GE Vernova had no material new disclosure since yesterday’s brief.
Full-year capex guidance — the build-out, in dollars
| Company | Period | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon | calendar 2026 | ~$220bn |
| Alphabet | calendar 2026 | $195–205bn |
| Microsoft | calendar 2026, revised Jul | ~$175bn |
| Meta | calendar 2026, incl. leases | $130–145bn |
| Oracle | FY2027, gross estimate | ~$90–95bn (~$70bn net, guided — updated tonight) |
| TSMC | calendar 2026, raised at Q2 | $60–64bn |
| CoreWeave | calendar 2026 | $35–39bn |
| Micron | FY26, ends Aug · net | ~$27bn |
| Intel | calendar 2026, gross | >$20bn |
Where each name stands
This is a standing table, not a daily one. Rows change only when a name discloses something; where no new disclosure has arrived, the entry carries forward from the previous edition, with the date of that print shown. Cells are left blank rather than filled with an estimate.
| Name | Last print | Key figures from it |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | ||
| TSM | 10 Sep · Aug monthly | New today. NT$514,806m, +53.3% YoY, +10.1% MoM; first month above NT$500bn and the fourth consecutive record. Jan–Aug NT$3,386,870m, +39.3%. Call only: 2026 capex $60–64bn from $52–56bn, capital intensity ~36% |
| NVDA | 26 Aug · FQ2’27 | Rev $96.2bn +106%; data centre $89.0bn +117%; GM 75.0%; GAAP EPS $2.46; FQ3 guide $108.0bn ±2%, assuming no China DC compute revenue. Hugging Face agreed 2 Sep at $12.93bn. DOJ probe of the Groq licence reported 10 Sep |
| AVGO | 2 Sep · FQ3’26 | Rev $29.6bn +86%; AI semis $16.7bn +221% and +54% QoQ; adjusted EPS $3.32; FQ4 guide ~$34.8bn with AI semis $21.7bn +236%. Call only: FY26 AI $58bn, FY27 ~$115bn, FY28 ~$230bn on secured supply |
| MU | 24 Jun · FQ3’26 | Rev $41,456m, +346% YoY on HBM and strategic customer agreements; GAAP GM 84.6%; GAAP EPS $24.67; OCF $25.39bn; net capex $7,084m. FQ4 guide $50.0bn ±$1.0bn at ~86% GM. Reports 30 Sep |
| QCOM | 8 Sep · 8-K | Multi-generation custom-silicon partnership with Amazon for AWS inference and 1.6T optical; warrants over 25m QCOM shares (~$4bn) issued to Amazon, filed under Item 3.02 |
| AMD | 8 Sep · Citi TMT | Call only: FY2027 data-centre revenue ~$70bn, roughly double 2026; AI GPUs low-$40bns; Anthropic, Meta and OpenAI named as anchors; $29–30bn of purchase commitments. Unveiled a personal supercomputer 10 Sep |
| MRVL | 27 Aug · FQ2’27 | Rev $2.739bn +37%; data centre $2.171bn +46%; FQ3 guide ~$3.15bn. Call only since: FY27 ~$12bn and FY28 ~$18bn, from ~$10bn / ~$13.5bn guided in December. Google warrant up to 58,970,907 shares at $206.58. Investor day 6 Oct |
| LRCX | 9 Sep · Citi TMT | Call only: CY2026 wafer-fab equipment “low $150bns” from $135bn then $140bn; $9–10bn of WFE per $100bn of AI data-centre capex; served share low-30s to >36% |
| KLAC | 9 Sep · Citi TMT | Call only: CY2026 wafer-fab equipment mid-$150bns, with upside flagged toward ~$190bn next year |
| AMAT | 8 Sep · Citi TMT | Call only: rolling eight-quarter customer forecasts up every quarter; US cloud-provider capex >$700bn, global approaching $1tn |
| ASML | 8 Sep · releases | Expanded High-NA EUV collaboration with Samsung; High-NA readiness collaboration with Intel Foundry; Eindhoven campus construction begun. Joint large-format photomask initiative with TSMC announced 8 Sep |
| ARM | 8 Sep · launches | AI-native agentic compute platform, Neoverse CSS N4, Physical AI ecosystem, Arm AI Portal. Piper Sandler initiated at overweight 10 Sep |
| INTC | 11 Aug · equity | $20bn common offering, 210,526,315 shares at $95, upsized from $15bn. NVIDIA’s stake is 214,776,632 shares bought at $23.28 for $5bn, marked ~$30bn in the 14 Aug 13F. Q2’26: 2026 capex >$20bn gross, ~$12.2bn SCIP partner contributions in H1; US government ~10% holder |
| TXN | ||
| CDNS | ||
| SNPS | ||
| Cloud & AI infrastructure | ||
| ORCL | 10 Jun · FQ4’26 | Q4 rev $19.2bn +21%; IaaS $5.8bn +93%; RPO $638bn +363%, ~$75bn prepaid or customer-supplied hardware, 12% within 12 months; FY26 capex $55.663bn. Call only: FY27 net capex ~$70bn, ~$40bn of debt and equity including a $20bn at-the-market programme. Reports FQ1’27 tonight |
| AMZN | 9 Sep · bond | New today. Debut sterling bond, £4.25bn in four parts, about $5.8bn, order book above £11bn; 2026 issuance now above $80bn. Q2’26 filed: net sales $200.6bn +20%, AWS $42.2bn +37%, quarterly capex $54,208m. Call only: 2026 cash capex ~$220bn, raised on higher memory cost |
| MSFT | 29 Jul · FQ4’26 | Rev $90.0bn +18%; Microsoft Cloud $59.3bn +27%; Azure +43%; op income $40.6bn; property and equipment additions $35.8bn, ~$41bn including finance leases. Building useful lives 15→25 years from FY27; CY2026 capex ~$175bn after that reclassification, plan unchanged |
| GOOGL | 22 Jul · Q2’26 | Cloud +82%; Q2 capex $44,924m, roughly 60% servers and 40% data centres and networking. Call only: 2026 capex $195–205bn from $180–190bn, rising significantly again in 2027 |
| CRWV | 11 Aug · Q2’26 | Rev $2,575m +112%; net loss $626m; backlog $104bn as of 30 Jun, or $129bn including post-quarter commitments; net interest $640m in the quarter; Q2 capex $6,422m; CY2026 capex $35–39bn; debt ~$35.1bn carrying |
| NET | 9 Sep · product | Rose 9–10% on an OpenAI-powered vulnerability service inside Cloudflare Managed Defense; the underlying OpenAI arrangement was announced 3 Sep |
| VRT | 2 Sep · M&A | Agreed to acquire UtilityInnovation Group for ~$1.45bn cash plus up to $1.15bn of earnout, about $2.6bn all in, roughly 13x expected 2027 UIG EBITDA. 2026 guidance raised to about 24% sales growth |
| GEV | Lead bidder on an HVDC grid project; new chief financial officer announced 9 Sep | |
| SaaS & enterprise software | ||
| ADBE | Tonight · FQ3’26 | Reports after the close. Anil Chakravarthy named president and CEO on 3 Sep effective 1 Dec; Narayen to executive chair; creative-business president David Wadhwani departing |
| CRM | 26 Aug · FQ2’27 | Rev $11.3bn +11% including $456m from Informatica; current RPO $33.5bn +14%; non-GAAP operating margin 34.1%; Agentforce ARR above $1.5bn, +240% on a widened definition that is not like-for-like. In talks for Listen Labs at ~$2bn |
| NOW | 22 Jul · Q2’26 | Subscription revenue growth of 24–25%, guidance raised. Sweep acquisition announced 8 Sep |
| SNOW | 2 Sep · FQ2’27 | Product revenue $1.49bn, +37%, a third consecutive acceleration; full-year product revenue outlook raised to about $6.07bn |
| MDB | 1 Sep · FQ2’27 | Rev about $688m, +30%; beat and raised, with Atlas growth flat for a fifth consecutive quarter |
| PANW | 1 Sep · FQ4/FY26 | Q4 rev $3.41bn +34%; next-generation security ARR $9.10bn +63%; FY26 rev $11.48bn +24.5%; FY27 guide $14.10–14.20bn |
| DDOG | 6 Aug · Q2’26 | Rev about $1.12bn, +36%, a first crossing of $1bn; full-year guidance raised |
| CRWD | 2 Sep · Fal.Con | Agentic identity and open-source supply-chain products announced. Joint security command centre with Wipro announced 10 Sep |
| SAP | 8 Sep · press | Bloomberg reported that supervisory board members believe SAP needs an AI breakthrough within months |
| HUBS | ||
| WDAY | ||
| Ads & adtech | ||
| META | 8 Sep · launch | Muse agent on Muse Spark; free, $20 and $100 monthly tiers, its first direct AI subscription. Q2’26 filed: rev $60.801bn +28%, capex $31.08bn including leases, operating cash flow $31.862bn, free cash flow $784m against $8,549m. Call only: 2026 capex $130–145bn |
| TTD | 4 Sep · 8-K | 15% of global headcount, about 575 roles, with charges of up to $51m — the largest reduction in company history. Removed from the S&P 500 the same day. Q2’26 revenue $715.1m, growth of 3% |
| ROKU | 9 Sep · 8-K | DOJ Second Request on the $22bn Fox acquisition at $160 a share; Hart-Scott-Rodino clock extended |
| ZETA | 8–9 Sep · conferences | Repositioning as enterprise data and AI infrastructure; Palantir, Snowflake and OpenAI partnerships cited; 2025 net revenue retention 120%; average deal size up 40% |
| NFLX | Inventory opened to all Trade Desk buyers on 20 Jul with no spend minimum. 2026 NFL schedule published 10 Sep | |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | ||
| BKNG | 9 Sep · court | New today. EU General Court upheld the Commission’s veto of the €1.63bn eTraveli acquisition, dismissing Booking’s challenge while acknowledging errors in the Commission’s own calculations |
| ABNB | 8 Sep · session | Fell 3.2% to 4.1% on Middle East headlines with no company catalyst; upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James. Q2’26 revenue $3.6bn +17% |
| UBER | 8 Sep · Form 4 | President and chief operating officer Andrew Macdonald bought 70,000 shares for about $5.31m. Fell about 4% on the Cybercab and Slovenia self-driving headlines |
| SHOP | 8 Sep · session | Fell 7–8% with no identified catalyst, after a more than 25% August |
| WMT | 20 Aug | $2.9bn tariff refund |
| Hardware & devices | ||
| AAPL | 9 Sep · keynote | iPhone Duo foldable with a 7.6-inch inner display at $1,999 / $2,199 / $2,599 / $3,199 across 256GB to 2TB, pre-order 16 Oct, ships 23 Oct; iPhone 18 Pro $1,199 and Pro Max $1,299, both $100 higher; AirPods 5, Watch Series 12, Watch Ultra 4. John Ternus’s first keynote as chief executive, a role he took on 1 Sep |
| DELL | 9 Sep · notes | About $4bn of senior notes in four series to refinance the 4.900% notes maturing 1 Oct 2026. FQ2’27: rev $47.0bn +58%; AI server revenue $16.4bn; AI orders $60.9bn; backlog $95.0bn from $51.3bn; FY27 guide about $192bn |
| CSCO | Middle East AI partnership with AMD reported 9 Sep | |
| Space & mobility | ||
| SPCX | 9 Sep · lock-up | New today. First lock-up expiry released a reported $47.2bn of insider stock; shares fell about 5%, trading roughly 11% above the $135 IPO price of 12 June, which itself closed its first day at $161.11. First 10-Q filed 4 Aug: no quarterly history before 1Q26, pre-February-2026 figures retrospectively recast |
| TSLA | 8–9 Sep · sessions | Full self-driving cleared in Slovenia; paid Cybercab rides began in parts of Austin on 3 Sep; NHTSA Audit Query AQ26002 covers about 1,000 Cybercabs. Q2’26: rev $28.24bn, deliveries 480,126 +25%, operating income $398m −57%, free cash flow −$1.09bn |
On the calendar
| When | Period | What |
|---|---|---|
| Today, 10 Sep | 10:30 BRT | US open, three and a half hours from this slot. NVIDIA presents at Goldman Sachs Communacopia at 12:50 BRT; Datadog and CrowdStrike also present today. |
| Today, 10 Sep | 18:00 BRT | Oracle fiscal 2027 first quarter, after the US close. Backlog conversion, fiscal 2027 capex and the financing plan are the numbers, not the headline RPO. Guide was revenue up 27–29% and total cloud up 58–64%. |
| Today, 10 Sep | 18:00–19:00 BRT | Adobe fiscal 2026 third quarter, overlapping Oracle almost exactly. First print since the CEO succession announcement; the AI ARR definition is worth watching. |
| 15–16 Sep | ~15:00 BRT, 16th | FOMC decision and projections. With Brent above $100 and Treasury yields near their highs, this is the main macro input for every levered name in the coverage. |
| 30 Sep | 17:30 BRT | Micron fiscal 2026 fourth quarter. Guided to $50.0bn ±$1.0bn at about 86% gross margin. The most direct read on AI memory pricing before the December quarter. |
| 6 Oct | — | Marvell investor day. The venue where the fiscal 2028 $18bn figure either becomes formal guidance or does not, and the first formal outlook since the Google warrant disclosure. |
| ~9 Oct | 02:30 BRT | TSMC September revenue, on the usual roughly-the-tenth schedule at 13:30 Taipei. Closes the third quarter and tests whether 53.3% was the peak. |
| 16 Oct | — | iPhone Duo pre-orders open; units ship 23 October, inside Apple’s fiscal first quarter. |
| Mid-Oct | date unconfirmed | TSMC third-quarter results and the 2026 capex guide update. Watch whether $60–64bn moves again. |
| Late Oct | dates unconfirmed | Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon September-quarter results, and with them the first 2027 capex signals. |
Story worth owning
The structures that avoid the disclosure. Four names in this coverage list have now used an instrument that keeps a major transaction out of the place a reader would look for it. Cerebras deducts customer warrants from revenue, so its reported revenue for one quarter differs by 17% depending on which line you read. Marvell issued Google a warrant over 58,970,907 shares that implies volumes far beyond its own guidance. Qualcomm issued Amazon warrants over 25m shares under Item 3.02 of an 8-K rather than pricing the partnership. And now the DOJ is reportedly asking whether NVIDIA licensed Groq’s technology, at a reported $17bn to $20bn, specifically because a purchase would have triggered merger review.
Yesterday’s brief argued for a customer-warrant register across the three silicon vendors. The DOJ story widens it. The warrant cases hide the price of a supply agreement; the Groq licence, if the reporting is right, hides the fact of an acquisition. Same instinct, different disclosure regime — use a structure that keeps the transaction out of the place a reader would look for it.
Individually each has been reported. Nobody independent has put them in one table and asked the obvious question: what fraction of the AI build-out’s economics is now transacted in instruments that do not appear as revenue, as price, or as a merger? Her studies already contain every one of these findings in isolation — they were each discovered while building the individual company work. The piece is the synthesis, and it is publishable on the strength of the source documents she has already read. The single table needs one more column than yesterday’s version: not just where the instrument lands in the accounts, but which disclosure obligation it displaces. The DOJ investigation is the news hook that makes it timely rather than merely interesting.
Sources
- TSMC Investor Relations, Monthly revenue report — August 2026 figures, published 10 September 2026.
- TSMC, Latest news — August 2026 revenue report dated 10 September 2026; ASML and TSMC large-format photomask initiative dated 8 September 2026.
- The New York Times via Google News, Regulators are investigating NVIDIA’s licensing deal with Groq — 10 September 2026, with Reuters and Bloomberg follow-ups the same day.
- NVIDIA Newsroom, Press releases — Australia AI infrastructure expansion, 9 September 2026; Palantir sovereign supply chain, 10 September 2026; Hugging Face acquisition at approximately $12.9bn, 3 September 2026.
- Reuters via Google News, Amazon raises almost $6 billion in first sterling bond sale — 9 September 2026; Quartz reported the £4.25bn figure the same day.
- Bloomberg and The Motley Fool via Google News, Oracle earnings preview coverage — 9 and 10 September 2026.
- Oracle Investor Relations, Investor news — fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results, 10 June 2026.
- Adobe via Business Wire, Adobe to announce Q3 FY2026 earnings results on 10 September 2026 — 31 August 2026.
- Adobe Newsroom, Anil Chakravarthy named President and Chief Executive Officer — 3 September 2026.
- Business Insider and TechCrunch via Google News, Salesforce in talks to acquire Listen Labs — 9 and 10 September 2026.
- Business Insider, CFO Dive and Financial News via Google News, The Trade Desk cuts 15% of staff — 4 to 8 September 2026.
- Reuters via Google News, Booking loses court fight against EU veto of eTraveli deal — 9 September 2026.
- 24/7 Wall St. and Yahoo Finance via Google News, SpaceX lock-up expiry coverage — 8 and 9 September 2026.
- Marvell Investor Relations, News releases — fiscal 2027 second-quarter results dated 27 August 2026; investor day 6 October 2026.
- Google News aggregation, Broadcom fiscal third-quarter 2026 results — Reuters and others, 2 and 3 September 2026.
- Google News aggregation, CoreWeave second-quarter 2026 results — CNBC, Reuters and Business Wire, 11 August 2026.
- Google News aggregation, 2026 hyperscaler capital expenditure guidance — company earnings coverage, July and August 2026.
- WSJ and Stocktwits via Google News, US futures, oil above $101 and the 9 September close — 9 and 10 September 2026.
- Vertiv and GE Vernova coverage via Google News, UtilityInnovation Group acquisition and HVDC bid — 2 to 10 September 2026.
- CoreValue Research, coverage universe file — coverage.json, 50 names across seven sectors, last updated 1 September 2026.
Carried forward from the previous edition, for the standing figures reused in the capex chart and the coverage table:
- Oracle Investor Relations, Record Q4 and FY 2026 results — 10 June 2026.
- Microsoft Investor Relations, FY26 Q4 press release and webcast — 29 July 2026.
- Fortune, Andy Jassy on Amazon’s $220bn of 2026 spending — 30 July 2026.
- Investing.com, Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings call transcript — 22 July 2026.
- Meta Platforms, Q2 2026 results, Exhibit 99.1 — SEC, 29 July 2026.
- TrendForce, TSMC lifts 2026 capex to $60–64bn — 16 July 2026.
- Micron, Record results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 — 24 June 2026.
- Micron Investor Relations, Fiscal Q4 2026 results date — 26 August 2026.
- Broadcom Investor Relations, Third quarter fiscal 2026 results — 2 September 2026.
- Vertiv Investor Relations, Agreement to acquire UtilityInnovation Group — 2 September 2026.
- Intel Investor Relations, Upsize and pricing of the $20bn common stock offering — 11 August 2026.
- NVIDIA, Form 8-K, Hugging Face definitive agreement — SEC, 2 September 2026.
Figures are as reported by the companies and the sources listed above, fetched on 10 September 2026, and have not been independently verified against the underlying filings except where a company release or investor-relations page is cited directly. Guidance taken from earnings calls and investor conferences rather than filed releases is labelled as such throughout, and a large share of the capex and forward-revenue figures in this brief fall into that category. TSMC’s monthly revenue figures are unaudited by the company’s own statement. Prices and index levels are last-session marks and will be stale by the next open. Method note for this edition: the web-search tool was unavailable throughout this run, so research was conducted by fetching investor-relations pages directly and by reading news feeds. TSMC’s monthly revenue, Oracle’s capex and backlog, NVIDIA’s press releases and the daylight-saving arithmetic were verified against primary or authoritative sources; several of the remaining items rest on headline-level aggregation of wire coverage rather than the underlying articles, and are worth a second look before anything is published from them. Rows in “Where each name stands” that carry no new disclosure are carried forward from the previous edition, with the original print date shown, rather than being re-fetched or left blank. This brief is internal research support for CoreValue Research. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
