CoreWeave paid the top of its coupon range and got the bottom of its premium range. The morning it launched the deal, Nebius told customers GPU rents go up 17–21% on 1 October.

The one thing

CoreWeave priced its convertible on Thursday night and upsized it from $3.0bn to $3.7bn (plus a $500m option). The terms went against the company on both counts: the coupon came at 2.875%, the top of the 2.375–2.875% range, and the conversion premium at 22.5%, the bottom of the 22.5–27.5% range. The conversion price is $97.85. In April CoreWeave sold a 1.75% convertible that converted at $119.60. Five months later it pays 112.5bp more in coupon and gives holders shares at a price 18% lower, mostly because the stock is lower ($79.88 against $92.00 in April) and partly because the premium fell from 30.0% to 22.5%. Demand for the paper was strong, since the deal was upsized, but buyers set the price.

Pricing power is moving the other way. On Thursday morning Nebius told customers that on-demand prices rise on 1 October: H100 from $3.85 to $4.50 an hour (+17%), B300 from $7.85 to $9.50 (+21%), and AMD EPYC Genoa CPU time +25%. It is Nebius’s second increase in a few months. AMD rose 6.36% on Thursday, Nvidia 2.54% and the SOX 3.14%. The S&P 500 gained 1.14% and the Nasdaq 1.69%; the 10-year eased to 4.95%. Asia followed on Friday: the TAIEX rose 1.93% on NT$1.08tn of turnover and the Kospi 2.66%. Put the two together and the neoclouds are charging more for compute while paying more for money.

Sector pulse — covered names with material news

Bars show the share of each sector’s covered names. A price move with no identified company news does not count, so Oracle (+5.19% Thursday, −3.6% early Friday), Workday (+6.14% Thursday), Cloudflare (−5.7% early Friday), Palo Alto and CrowdStrike (about −4% early Friday) are left out. Counted: AMD, Nvidia (Nebius price list), Intel (Barclays upgrade), Texas Instruments, CoreWeave, Netflix, The Trade Desk, Uber.

Overnight & last session

Semis & equipment

Nebius raises GPU and CPU rental prices from 1 October; AMD +6.4%, Nvidia +2.5%

AMD · NVDA · Reported Thu 17 Sep, pre-market; effective Thu 1 Oct

Nebius notified customers of higher on-demand prices from 1 October; Bloomberg reported it from an emailed Nebius statement. Nebius’s own pricing page still shows the old rates, which match the “from” figures below. The H100 goes from $3.85 to $4.50 per GPU-hour (+17%), the H200 from $4.50 to $5.40 (+20%), the B200 from $7.15 to $8.50 (+19%) and the B300 from $7.85 to $9.50 (+21%). AMD EPYC Genoa CPU time rises 25%, from $0.012 to $0.015 per vCPU-hour, and Genoa memory about 41%, from $0.0032 to $0.0045 per GiB-hour. It is the second round of increases in a few months, taking the B300 up about 56% cumulatively. Nebius has not said what the increases are worth in revenue (Proactive Investors). AMD closed +6.36% at $545.09, which the Motley Fool attributes to the price list. Nvidia closed +2.54% at $219.34 and Nebius itself +4.12%. The whole group had a strong session: Arm +8.57%, Intel +7.67%, Micron +5.50%, Marvell +4.81%, the TSMC ADR +3.00%. Early Friday, equipment led: Lam about +4.7%, Applied Materials about +3.7%, Broadcom about +3.2%, while Qualcomm fell about 4.0%.

The read: The H100 is a 2022 chip. A 17% increase in its on-demand list price in late 2026 is fresh evidence against the bear case that GPUs lose value faster than the long useful lives the neoclouds depreciate them over. It is one provider’s on-demand list, though, and most neocloud revenue is contracted. The largest percentage increase is on CPU-instance memory (+41%), a VM charge rather than chip pricing, but consistent with the memory shortage. The Genoa increase supports AMD’s CPU case. Her Nebius study found no quarterly XBRL, so the price list is the most current operating figure available. Her AMD study should record the Genoa increase next to the call-only FY2027 data-centre figure of ~$70bn.

Texas Instruments raises its dividend 7% to a $6.08 run-rate and repeats its pledge to “return all free cash flow”

TXN · 8-K (Item 7.01) filed Thu 17 Sep, 17:11 BRT

TI will raise its quarterly dividend from $1.42 to $1.52 per share, $6.08 annualized, payable 10 November to holders of record on 30 October, contingent upon formal declaration by the board in October. It is the 23rd consecutive annual increase. The release says the increase “reflects the company’s continued commitment to return all free cash flow to its owners over time”. The stock closed −0.97% at $258.14 on Thursday and was about +2.1% early Friday.

The read: The pledge is not new. The same sentence has appeared in every September dividend release since 2022. What is new is how far the dividend has moved away from it. On the definition TI used through FY2024, 2025 free cash flow was $2.85 a share, against $5.50 of dividends declared (both from her study). The new $6.08 run-rate widens that gap. The pledge only holds on the new definition, which adds CHIPS Act proceeds, or if free cash flow recovers as the capex cycle ends. Correction for her study: it gates the “return all free cash flow” language as absent after FY2019. The fact-check found it in the September 2022–2025 dividend releases and in the annual reports filed in 2024–2026, so that gate needs fixing before upload.

Intel: Barclays upgraded the stock from Underperform to Overweight, most likely on Wednesday (see “Where sources disagree”). Intel closed at $108.80, +7.67%, on 147.2m shares, about 35% above its three-month average. Asia on Friday: TSMC rose 1.44% to NT$2,460. Per Trading Economics, SK hynix gained 5.56% and Samsung 2.97%, and the Kospi closed +2.66% at 6,894. Yahoo’s end-of-day data gives larger moves for the two chipmakers (see “Where sources disagree”).

Cloud & AI infrastructure

CoreWeave prices an upsized $3.7bn convertible: 2.875% coupon, 22.5% premium, converts at $97.85

CRWV · Priced Thu 17 Sep; release Fri 18 Sep, 08:00 BRT; settles Tue 22 Sep

CoreWeave sold $3.7bn of 2.875% convertible senior notes due 1 April 2033, up from the $3.0bn launched on Thursday morning, and granted the initial purchasers an option for another $500m. The conversion rate is 10.2194 shares per $1,000, a conversion price of about $97.85, 22.5% above Thursday’s close of $79.88. The capped calls cap at $199.70, 150% above that close, and cost about $498.8m. Net proceeds are about $3,644.5m, or $4,137.0m if the option is exercised. Everything above the capped-call cost goes to general corporate purposes. For comparison, April’s convertible (due 1 October 2032) paid 1.75%, converted at $119.60 (a 30.0% premium over $92.00) and capped at $230.00. The stock closed Thursday −4.16% at $79.88 and was roughly flat, about $80.04, early Friday. No pricing 8-K was on EDGAR at the time of writing. The notes are a private offering, so no prospectus is expected. The terms above come from the company’s release as carried by Stock Titan.

The read: Pricing at the top of the coupon range and the bottom of the premium range is the market’s view of CoreWeave’s equity. Buyers wanted more cash yield and conversion closer to the current share price. By our arithmetic the notes convert into about 37.8m shares (42.9m with the option). Together with the 35m-share ATM, that is up to about 78m shares of new equity-linked supply announced in one week, before the capped calls, which offset conversion dilution up to $199.70. The annual coupon on $3.7bn is about $106m, in cash. For her CoreWeave study, the cost-of-capital chart now has a dated trend: 1.75% in April, 2.875% in September, while the conversion price fell from $119.60 to $97.85. That is the ai-bubble-radar levered-periphery tripwire, measured in the company’s own pricing.

Oracle rose 5.19% to $150.59 on Thursday and gave back about 3.6% early Friday, with no new filing. Cloudflare fell about 5.7% early Friday from Thursday’s record close of $333.94, also with no news. Hyperscalers on Thursday: Amazon +2.13%, Microsoft +1.52%, Meta +1.34%, Alphabet +1.30%. No covered hyperscaler filed a new debt prospectus on Thursday or Friday.

SaaS & enterprise software

No company news. Workday rose 6.14% on Thursday with no new report on the Silver Lake talks. Salesforce fell 3.07% to $242.85, a second day down after its investor day. HubSpot fell 2.91% and another ~4.2% early Friday. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike were each down about 4% early Friday, giving back part of a week in which 24/7 Wall St. puts them up 10.8% and 17.1% on the “AI safety” trade that followed Dario Amodei’s 12 September essay.

Ads & adtech

Wells Fargo cuts Netflix to Underweight with a $57 target, citing an 8% fall in adjusted viewing

NFLX · Fri 18 Sep, pre-market

Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall downgraded Netflix from Equal-Weight to Underweight and cut the price target from $80 to $57. He cited adjusted viewership down 8% in the first half of 2026 against the first half of 2023, a softer content slate, elevated content spending and churn risk into 2027. CNBC adds that the viewing figure is adjusted for the password-sharing crackdown and geographic mix. Evercore ISI’s Kutgun Maral took the other side with an Outperform rating and a $110 target, pointing to record household penetration in Japan and multi-year highs in the US (24/7 Wall St.; Tradingpedia; CNBC). The stock traded about 4.3% lower early Friday at about $72.11, its fourth straight fall, after closing Thursday at $75.31 (−1.44%).

The read: Her Netflix study already found membership rows running past the last disclosure, which was the point at which Netflix stopped reporting subscribers. Engagement is now the measure the bears use, and Netflix publishes it only twice a year. The 8% is a sell-side construction (“adjusted”, and against 2023), not a company figure. Her study could rebuild it from Netflix’s own semi-annual engagement reports before anyone cites it as fact.

The Trade Desk files its definitive proxy to reprice 15.6m employee options; vote on 19 October

TTD · DEF 14A filed Fri 18 Sep, 06:01 BRT

Stockholders will vote at a virtual special meeting on 19 October on repricing options over up to 15,582,540 Class A shares, granted between April 2017 and 16 September 2026, with exercise prices between $3.69 and $122.59. Any exercise price above the closing price on the meeting date falls to that close. A holder who leaves (except on termination without cause) or exercises within six months gets the original price back. Jeff Green’s performance options, all incentive stock options and non-employee directors are excluded, but executive officers hold 3.19m of the eligible options, 1.62m of them Green’s. 2,342 non-executive employees hold the rest. The largest block, 5.73m shares, carries a weighted-average exercise price of $21.86, against a $14.49 close on 16 September. The preliminary proxy was filed on 8 September. Class B shares, 97.6% held by directors and officers as a group, carry ten votes each. The stock closed Thursday at $14.26 (−1.59%).

The read: Four days after the CEO’s own performance options were re-struck at $14.97, the rest of the company’s underwater options are put to a vote. Together the two filings reset most of the option stack. By our arithmetic from the proxy tables, the weighted-average strike of the eligible options is about $33.38, and 94% of them (14.67m) are above the $14.49 close of 16 September. Repricing to about $14.50 cuts the average strike by roughly 57%. The eligible options are about 3.3% of the 472.8m Class A and B shares outstanding on the record date (our arithmetic). For her TTD coverage, the useful chart is repriced option value against the 15% headcount cut of 4 September: the company is cutting staff and reissuing incentives to those who stay.

Consumer platforms & commerce

Uber’s Schedule 13D/A, filed Thursday evening, shows it sold 29,369,611 Aurora Innovation shares in a block trade on 15 September at $6.205, about $182m by our arithmetic. Uber keeps 157.1m shares, 9.2% of Aurora’s Class A. Nothing else in the sector.

Hardware & devices

No company news. iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max deliveries and in-store sales begin today. Dell rose 4.46% to $588.40 on Thursday.

Space & mobility

No company news. SpaceX +2.60% and Tesla +2.27% on Thursday. Starship Flight 14 remains set for Tuesday (see calendar).

Full-year capex guidance across the build-out

Where each name stands

This is a standing table. A row changes only when a name discloses something or makes a material move; otherwise it is carried forward with its original print date. New today marks rows changed in this edition. Thursday closes are shown where a name moved 2% or more, or has news. Cells are left blank rather than filled with an estimate.

On the calendar

• Fri 18 SepTriple-witching options expiry, about $7tn notional according to Bloomberg, the second-largest on record. iPhone 18 Pro launch-day deliveries.
• Tue 22 SepCoreWeave’s $3.7bn convertible settles. The $500m option can be exercised for 13 days from issuance.
• Tue 22 Sep, 09:15 BRTStarship Flight 14 (07:15 CT, 75-minute window): first orbital attempt, 26 Starlink V3 satellites.
• Wed 23 – Thu 24 SepMeta Connect, Menlo Park.
• Tue 29 SepOpenAI DevDay, San Francisco.
• Wed 30 SepDeadline on the reported $920m-per-month SpaceX–Google compute arrangement.
• Wed 30 Sep, 17:30 BRTMicron fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results (14:30 Mountain).
• Thu 1 OctNebius price increases take effect. Maturity of Dell’s $1.75bn of 4.900% notes.
• Thu 1 Oct, 22:30 BRTTesla Roadster reveal, Waco, Texas (20:30 CDT).
• Tue 6 OctMarvell investor day.
• Thu 8 Oct, 02:30 BRTTSMC September monthly sales (13:30 Taipei). Completes 3Q26 against the $44.6–45.8bn guide.
• Tue 13 OctWorkday financial analyst day, per aggregator reports; not confirmed on Workday’s site.
• Wed 14 OctASML third-quarter 2026 results, per data-provider listings.
• Thu 15 Oct (est.)TSMC third-quarter 2026 results, a forecast date not yet on the company calendar.
• Fri 16 OctiPhone Duo pre-orders open.
• From ~Sat 17 Oct (est.)Earliest date CoreWeave’s 35m-share ATM could start selling, if the 30-day lock-out runs from the 17 Sep purchase agreement. This is our calculation, not a filed date.
• Mon 19 Oct, 17:00 BRTThe Trade Desk special meeting on the option repricing (13:00 PT, virtual).
• Tue 20 OctNetflix third-quarter 2026 results, after the close, per data-provider listings.
• Oct (board meeting)Texas Instruments formally declares the $1.52 dividend (record 30 Oct, payable 10 Nov).
• Sun 25 – Wed 28 OctOracle AI World, Las Vegas. A reported analyst day on 28 Oct is not yet confirmed on Oracle’s site.

Story worth owning

A neocloud rent index: posted GPU-hour prices against the cost of the money that buys the GPUs

This week produced both sides of the neocloud equation within 24 hours. On the revenue side, Nebius raised its posted on-demand prices for the second time in a few months: the H100, a 2022 part, rises 17% to $4.50 an hour, and the B300 is up about 56% cumulatively. CoreWeave’s financing deck, furnished with Thursday’s 8-K, claims a ~70% price increase across SKUs in July. On the funding side, CoreWeave’s convertible coupon went from 1.75% in April to 2.875% now, while its conversion price fell from $119.60 to $97.85. Its straight notes carry coupons of 8.5–9.75%, per Thursday’s 8-K.

No independent source appears to track posted neocloud prices as a time series. Yet public price lists from Nebius, CoreWeave, Lambda and the hyperscalers’ on-demand GPU instances are the only high-frequency data on AI compute economics; everything else arrives quarterly and months late. A monthly index of dollars per GPU-hour by SKU would answer the question the depreciation debate keeps asking but cannot settle: are older GPUs losing value fast enough to invalidate the useful lives on the neoclouds’ balance sheets? Set against each operator’s marginal cost of funding (coupon plus the value of the conversion option, or the straight-note yield), the index gives a spread. When that spread narrows, the levered periphery is in trouble before any 10-Q shows it.

Her CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN and Applied Digital studies already hold the capital-structure side. The price side needs only a scheduled scrape and a dated archive, which would be a natural job for the agent repository. The first data point is 1 October.

Sources

1. CoreWeave Prices Upsized $3.7 Billion Convertible Senior Notes Offering (company release) — Stock Titan, 18 Sep 2026, 07:00 ET
2. CoreWeave Prices Upsized $3.7 Billion Convertible Senior Notes Offering — 01net (release syndication), 18 Sep 2026
3. CoreWeave Prices $3.7 Billion Convertible Bond Offering — The Information, 18 Sep 2026
4. CoreWeave Prices Upsized $3.5 Billion Convertible Senior Notes Offering (April 2032 notes, for comparison) — CoreWeave investor relations, 10 Apr 2026
5. CoreWeave Form 8-K, Items 7.01 and 8.01 — convertible launch and equity distribution agreement — SEC EDGAR, 17 Sep 2026
6. Nebius announces higher rates for Nvidia GPUs and AMD CPUs — Proactive Investors, 17 Sep 2026, 10:33 ET
7. Nebius Announces GPU Price Increases (per-SKU prices, citing ODAILY) — KuCoin News, 17 Sep 2026
8. Why AMD Stock Jumped Today — The Motley Fool, 17 Sep 2026
9. Stock Market Today, Sept. 17: Intel Surges 8% on Rumored SK Hynix Talks — The Motley Fool, 17 Sep 2026
10. Intel (INTC) Stock Surges 4% Following Barclays Upgrade to Overweight — Blockonomi, Sep 2026
11. Stock Market News for Sep 17, 2026 — Yahoo Finance (Zacks), 17 Sep 2026
12. Texas Instruments Exhibit 99 — TI increases dividend 7% to $1.52 per share — SEC EDGAR (8-K), 17 Sep 2026
13. The Trade Desk definitive proxy (DEF 14A) — special meeting on option repricing — SEC EDGAR, 18 Sep 2026
14. Netflix Falls 4% as Wells Fargo Cuts Rating to Underweight With $57 Target — 24/7 Wall St., 18 Sep 2026
15. Wells Fargo Downgrade Knocks Netflix Shares in Pre-Market Trade — Tradingpedia, 18 Sep 2026
16. Uber Technologies Schedule 13D/A (Amendment No. 7) — Aurora Innovation — SEC EDGAR, 17 Sep 2026
17. Roku Rule 425 filing — all-hands fireside chat with Fox — SEC EDGAR, 17 Sep 2026
18. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks Are Soaring, but Is the Rally Already Priced In? — 24/7 Wall St., 18 Sep 2026
19. Anthropic, OpenAI CEOs call for slowdown in AI development — Axios, 12 Sep 2026
20. Taiwan shares close up 1.93% — Focus Taiwan (CNA), 18 Sep 2026
21. South Korea stock market (KOSPI) — Trading Economics, accessed 18 Sep 2026
22. Options Triple Witching Sees $7 Trillion Expiring on Friday — Bloomberg, 18 Sep 2026
23. OpenAI, Microsoft executives’ quotes on AI training threaten copyright defense, news outlets argue — The Star (Reuters), 18 Sep 2026
24. Netflix is in the doldrums and a comeback is unlikely, Wells Fargo says — CNBC, 18 Sep 2026
25. Nebius to increase prices for Nvidia GPU resources from October — Investing.com (Bloomberg), 17 Sep 2026, 09:47 ET
26. Nebius compute pricing (current, pre-increase rates) — Nebius documentation, accessed 18 Sep 2026
27. Texas Instruments dividend release, September 2025 (same free-cash-flow sentence) — SEC EDGAR, 18 Sep 2025
28. Daily price history for covered tickers, NBIS, ^SOX, ^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^TNX, 2330.TW, 000660.KS, 005930.KS — Yahoo Finance chart data, accessed 18 Sep 2026, 14:54 UTC

Carried forward from previous editions, for the standing figures reused in the capex chart and the coverage table:

1. Generac Holdings Form 8-K — Amazon warrant and supply agreement — SEC EDGAR, 16 Sep 2026
2. Salesforce Form 8-K — Investor Day presentation — SEC EDGAR, 16 Sep 2026
3. Qualcomm Form 8-K, Item 3.02 — Amazon warrant — SEC EDGAR, 8 Sep 2026
4. Dell International / EMC prospectus supplement (424B2) — SEC EDGAR, 11 Sep 2026
5. Oracle Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 Aug 2026 — SEC EDGAR, 11 Sep 2026
6. TSMC August 2026 Revenue Report — TSMC investor relations, 10 Sep 2026
7. CoreWeave Reports Strong Second Quarter 2026 Results — CoreWeave investor relations, 11 Aug 2026
8. Broadcom Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results — Broadcom investor relations, 2 Sep 2026
9. Meta Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results — Meta investor relations, 29 Jul 2026
10. Alphabet second-quarter 2026 results and raised capex guidance — CNBC, 22 Jul 2026
11. Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings materials — Microsoft investor relations, 29 Jul 2026
12. Micron record results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 — Micron investor relations, 24 Jun 2026
13. Intel upsize and pricing of the $20bn common stock offering — Intel investor relations, 11 Aug 2026
14. SpaceX will try to put Starship in orbit for the first time on September 22 — TechCrunch, 15 Sep 2026
15. Save the Date: Meta Connect 2026 — Meta, 12 May 2026
16. Tesla Teases Oct. 1 Event to Showcase Next-Generation Roadster — Bloomberg, 12 Sep 2026

All figures are as reported by companies, their SEC filings, or the news sources listed above. They have not been independently verified against audited statements. Thursday 17 September closing prices come from end-of-day price history. This edition was compiled after the 10:30 BRT US open; “early Friday” prices are indicative, taken at about 11:55 BRT on a triple-witching day, and will already be stale. CoreWeave’s pricing terms come from its release as syndicated; no pricing 8-K had been filed at the time of writing. Share counts on conversion (~37.8m / ~42.9m), the annual coupon (~$106m), the Aurora sale value (~$182m), the TTD dilution share (~3.3%) and the ATM start date are our calculations. TI free-cash-flow-per-share and dividend figures in “The read” come from CoreValue’s own TI study, not from today’s sources. Capex and forward-revenue figures marked “call only” come from earnings calls, conferences and investor days, not filed results. Guidance ranges and fiscal-year definitions differ between companies and are not like-for-like. Rows in “Where each name stands” with no new disclosure are carried forward from previous editions. Before publication, an independent verification pass re-fetched the CoreWeave pricing release and EDGAR, the Nebius reports and pricing page, the Texas Instruments, Trade Desk and Uber filings, the Netflix downgrade coverage, the Asia closes and all Thursday closes. All figures matched. It corrected one substantive error: the draft said TI had “brought back” its free-cash-flow pledge, when the sentence has run in every September dividend release since 2022. It also replaced a misleading “88% below” framing of the Trade Desk repricing with the weighted-average strike, re-dated the Barclays Intel upgrade to Wednesday, corrected the Nebius timing to Thursday morning, and softened four framings (list price versus contracted revenue, VM memory versus chip pricing, capped-call offset, share-price effect on the conversion price). Nothing here is investment advice. Prepared for internal research use at CoreValue Research.