Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 07:00 BRT slot · compiled 19:10 BRT · US session closed
The one thing
Monday and Tuesday were the Citi TMT and Goldman Communacopia conferences, and the entire AI supply chain marked its own numbers up inside forty-eight hours. AMD guided fiscal-2027 data-centre revenue to about $70bn, roughly double 2026, with AI GPUs in the low $40bns and Anthropic, Meta and OpenAI named as anchor customers. Marvell‘s Bill Murphy put fiscal 2027 near $12bn and fiscal 2028 near $18bn, against roughly $10bn and $13.5bn guided in December. Lam Research moved calendar-2026 wafer-fab equipment to the “low $150bns” from $135bn and then $140bn earlier this year; KLA went to the mid-$150bns and flagged upside toward $190bn next year; Applied Materials said US cloud-provider capex is now above $700bn with the global figure approaching $1tn. Nobody filed anything. Every one of those is call commentary.
The structurally interesting event was smaller and came with an 8-K. Qualcomm won a multi-generation custom-silicon partnership with Amazon for AWS inference and 1.6T optical — and issued Amazon warrants over 25m QCOM shares, worth roughly $4bn, filed on 8 September under Item 3.02. That is the third customer-warrant structure inside this coverage list in a year, after Marvell’s Google warrant over 58,970,907 shares at $206.58 and Cerebras deducting customer warrants from revenue outright. It has stopped being an anomaly.
Against all of that, the tape fell and the bond market got expensive. The S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,636.36, the Nasdaq Composite 0.64% at 26,253.34 and the Dow 0.77% at 52,380.66. Brent broke $100 for the first time since July, settling around $100.95. And Treasury’s $39bn ten-year auction stopped at a high yield of 4.834%, the highest at a ten-year sale since 2007, on a bid-to-cover of 2.71 — the strongest since April 2016. Demand was excellent. The price was awful. Oracle reports into that tomorrow evening with a $638bn backlog and about $40bn of fiscal-2027 financing to place.
Sector pulse — covered names with material news
| Sector | Names with news | What moved |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | 8 | Conference week: QCOM, AMD, MRVL, LRCX, KLAC, AMAT, ASML, ARM |
| Cloud & AI infrastructure | 3 | NET ran; ORCL reports Thursday into a 2007-high auction |
| SaaS & enterprise software | 4 | CRM and NOW sold off on GPT-6 Astra; SAP pressured; ADBE Thursday |
| Ads & adtech | 3 | Meta’s Muse; Roku’s DOJ Second Request; Zeta repositioning |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | 4 | Travel sold off on the Middle East; SHOP fell with no catalyst |
| Hardware & devices | 2 | Apple’s foldable; Dell placed $4bn of notes |
| Space & mobility | 1 | SPCX picked up its first sell-side Buy |
Overnight & last session
Semis & equipment — eight names moved
Amazon’s newest silicon partner was paid partly in its own supplier’s stock
Qualcomm and Amazon signed a multi-generation custom-silicon partnership covering AWS AI inference and 1.6T optical connectivity. Alongside it, Qualcomm issued Amazon warrants over 25m QCOM shares — roughly $4bn at current prices — disclosed in an 8-K under Item 3.02, the unregistered-securities item. QCOM traded up between 3% and 7% on the news depending on the source. It is Qualcomm’s first credible data-centre design win of this cycle and it lands in the same quarter that Amazon raised 2026 cash capex to about $220bn.
The read: this is the third customer warrant in your coverage in twelve months and the pattern now deserves a standing note. Your Marvell initiation found three customer warrants booked against revenue, one of which — the Google warrant over 58,970,907 shares at $206.58 — implies purchase volumes of roughly $120bn against $18bn of guidance. Your Cerebras initiation found two revenue figures for a single quarter 17% apart for exactly this reason. The question to put to Qualcomm’s next 10-Q is narrow and answerable: is the fair value of these 25m warrants a contra-revenue item, a customer-incentive asset amortised against future sales, or an equity issuance cost? Three different answers, three different reported revenue lines, and the hyperscalers are now systematically buying silicon supply with their suppliers’ equity rather than cash.
Two custom-silicon guides went up by roughly a third, nine days after the last one was set
AMD put fiscal-2027 data-centre revenue at about $70bn, roughly double 2026, with AI GPUs in the low $40bns, and named Anthropic, Meta and OpenAI as anchor customers against $29–30bn of purchase commitments. The shares rose between 4.7% and 5.9%. Marvell’s chief executive told CNBC to expect about $12bn in fiscal 2027 and about $18bn in fiscal 2028, with more than $15bn of the latter from data centre — against roughly $10bn and $13.5bn guided in December. MRVL rose 6.4% on Wednesday.
The read: none of this is filed. AMD’s $70bn, Marvell’s $12bn and $18bn, Broadcom’s $115bn and $230bn from a week ago — all four are spoken numbers with no document behind them, and all four were raised within nine days of one another. That synchrony is itself the finding: custom-silicon vendors are guiding off the same handful of hyperscaler commitments, which means the aggregate is double- and triple-counting the same racks. Your Frontier Labs sector study already refuses to total the compute-deal register for precisely this reason. The unpublished piece is the reciprocal: total the vendors’ forward guides against the buyers’ disclosed capex and show where the arithmetic stops working.
Wafer-fab equipment was marked up twice inside two days, and the tool makers disagree on how far
Lam Research’s CFO put calendar-2026 wafer-fab equipment at the “low $150bns“, having moved from $135bn to $140bn earlier in the year, with a rule of thumb of $9–10bn of WFE per $100bn of AI data-centre capex and Lam’s served share going from the low 30s toward more than 36%. KLA’s CFO said mid-$150bns and flagged upside toward roughly $190bn next year. Applied Materials’ CFO said customer rolling eight-quarter forecasts have risen every quarter, with US cloud-provider capex above $700bn and global approaching $1tn. ASML put out three releases on Tuesday: an expanded High-NA EUV collaboration with Samsung, a High-NA readiness collaboration with Intel Foundry, and the start of construction on its Eindhoven campus. ARM launched four things the same day, including an AI-native agentic compute platform and Neoverse CSS N4, and rose 4.0%.
The read: Lam’s $9–10bn of WFE per $100bn of AI data-centre capex is the most useful single ratio anyone put on the record this week, because it converts the hyperscaler capex bars below into a testable equipment number — and at $700bn-plus of US cloud capex it implies WFE materially above even KLA’s mid-$150bns. Either the ratio is too high, the capex is not all AI data centre, or the tool makers are still under-guiding. Your Semiconductor Atlas conversion, with its 70-fab and 121-project build-out map, is the only asset in the shop that can arbitrate that — and it is built, staged and still not uploaded. This is the week it would have earned its keep.
TSMC’s August sales print overnight, and the sequential is the number that matters
July revenue was NT$467.58bn, up 44.7% year on year and 5.6% on June, with January–July at NT$2,872.06bn, up 37.0%. August has not been published: it is scheduled for 13:30 Taipei on 10 September, 02:30 BRT. On the 16 July earnings call — not in the release or the deck — CFO Wendell Huang lifted 2026 capex to $60–64bn from $52–56bn, taking capital intensity to about 36% of sales from 33.5% in 2025.
The read: TSMC is the only monthly high-frequency read on the whole build-out, and tonight it arrives eight hours before Oracle tells the market what the build-out costs to finance. The year-on-year comparison is now flattered by a soft 2025 base; the month-on-month is not. If August holds a sequential above roughly +4% while capital intensity climbs toward 36%, the foundry is converting the order book to revenue faster than it converts cash to plant — the divergence your TSMC study rebuilt chapter six around, after the deck’s cash-flow figure came in 26% off the master.
Cloud & AI infrastructure — three names moved
The ten-year cleared at the highest yield since 2007 — the night before the biggest backlog in the universe reports
Treasury sold $39bn of ten-year notes at a high yield of 4.834%, the highest stop at a ten-year auction since 2007; August had stopped at 4.683%. Demand was not the problem — bid-to-cover of 2.71 was the strongest since April 2016, with indirect bidders taking 79.2%, and the stop came through the pre-auction level, pulling yields back from a morning surge driven by Brent’s first break of $100 since July.
Oracle reports fiscal Q1 2027 after Thursday’s close, call 17:00 ET. From the filed fiscal Q4 release: RPO of $638bn, up 363%, of which about $75bn is customer-prepaid or customer-supplied hardware, with 12% expected to convert inside twelve months; quarterly revenue $19.2bn, up 21%; fiscal-2026 capex $55.663bn. Guidance for the quarter is revenue up 27–29% and total cloud up 58–64% in dollars. On the call — not in the release — CFO Doug Maxson guided fiscal-2027 net capex to about $70bn and about $40bn of debt and equity financing including the announced $20bn at-the-market equity programme, after $43bn of senior notes and $5bn of equity in fiscal 2026 at coupons from 4.45% to 6.85%.
The read: Oracle has already published its own cost of capital, in a filed document, across a maturity ladder running to 2066. Put today’s 4.834% stop beside that 4.45%–6.85% range and the fiscal-2027 tranche prices at the wrong end of Oracle’s own history. Thursday’s question is not RPO growth, which is a booking, but the spread between the yield on $40bn of new paper and the margin on a backlog converting at 12% a year. That is the same tripwire your AI-bubble radar points at CoreWeave — and CRWV traded around $99.63 today, roughly 12% above Monday’s close in a $98.07 to $100.58 range, with RSI cooling from 72 to 55. The levered periphery is rallying into a repricing of leverage.
Cloudflare rose 9–10% on shipping OpenAI models inside a paid security product
Cloudflare gained between 9% and 10%, to roughly $308–313, after adding an OpenAI-powered vulnerability service to Cloudflare Managed Defense. The underlying OpenAI arrangement was announced on 3 September; today was the product landing inside a billable SKU.
The read: your Cloudflare initiation’s central finding was that the gross-margin decline is an allocation, and that the company’s two operating margins sit 43.4 percentage points apart. A managed-security product that pays a third-party model provider per call is exactly the cost that decides which of those two margins the market ends up believing. Watch where inference cost is allocated in the next 10-Q — cost of revenue or R&D — because that single choice, not the product, determines whether this launch is accretive on the page.
SaaS & enterprise software — four names moved
Application software sold off on a model release, again
OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout took the applications complex down on Tuesday: Salesforce fell 3.9% to $249.12, ServiceNow about 5%, and the S&P software and services index 1.4%. BTIG raised its ServiceNow target to $170 into the weakness. Separately, Bloomberg reported that members of SAP’s supervisory board believe the company needs an AI breakthrough within months; CEO Christian Klein presented at Communacopia the same day.
The read: this is the third consecutive frontier-model release that has cost the applications layer more than it cost the infrastructure layer, and the market is not distinguishing between them. Your Salesforce work already documents that the Agentforce ARR definition widened this quarter to include Slackbot and Headless 360, so the disclosed 240% growth is not like-for-like. That matters more on days like this than on good days: the one number Salesforce offers as proof of AI traction is the one number that changed shape, and nobody independent has said so in print.
Adobe reports fiscal Q3 with a CEO handover already announced
Adobe releases fiscal Q3 2026 after Thursday’s close, call 14:00–15:00 Pacific — 18:00 to 19:00 BRT, overlapping Oracle’s almost exactly. It comes a week after Adobe named Anil Chakravarthy president and CEO effective 1 December, moved Shantanu Narayen to executive chair, and disclosed the departure of creative-business president David Wadhwani.
The read: a print delivered by an outgoing chief executive with a named successor is the one quarter where guidance conservatism is structurally cheap, so watch whether the fiscal-2026 exit rate is reset now rather than in December. Leadership changes of this shape usually precede a segment redefinition, and Adobe is a serial redefiner — your Adobe study already records that FY2025 segments do not foot. Check any restatement against the filed statement, not the release table.
Ads & adtech — three names moved
Muse ships with a price list, and Meta becomes the first name here to book AI revenue from consumers
Muse is an autonomous agent on Meta’s Muse Spark model, released across iOS, Android and a dedicated web app, able to book travel, send email, complete web forms and handle payments. Tiering is free, $20 a month and $100 a month — Meta’s first direct AI subscription. It follows the 2 September release of Muse Spark 1.3. Mizuho’s Lloyd Walmsley, at Outperform with a $750 target, called it a meaningful step toward demonstrating positive returns on the capex, while flagging the competitive risk from Alphabet’s Gemini. META closed $653.69, up 6.55%, essentially the only large-cap gainer on the day; Pershing Square was reported to have added 3.2 million shares the previous evening. Against that, the June quarter Meta actually filed: operating cash flow $31.862bn, capex $31.08bn including finance leases, and free cash flow of $784m against $8.549bn a year earlier.
The read: the breakeven arithmetic is brutal in a useful way. At $130–145bn of 2026 capex, the $20 tier needs roughly half a billion paying subscribers to cover a single year of spend — more than Meta has ever converted to any paid product. So this cannot be a capex-payback story. It is a disclosure story: once a subscription line exists, Meta has to report it, and AI stops being an expense with no counterparty. Set that against Alphabet, which fell 2.28% to $330.65 the same day while guiding to $195–205bn of 2026 capex with no equivalent consumer price list. Nine points of relative performance in one session is the cleanest available estimate of what the market currently pays for evidence of AI monetisation.
The DOJ took a second look at Roku’s $22bn Fox deal
Roku disclosed a Department of Justice Second Request on its $22bn acquisition of Fox at $160 a share, extending the Hart-Scott-Rodino clock. The 8-K was filed on 9 September covering an 8 September event; shares fell about 2% after hours. Separately, Zeta spent both conferences repositioning itself as enterprise data and AI infrastructure rather than adtech, citing Palantir, Snowflake and OpenAI partnerships, 2025 net revenue retention of 120% and average deal size up 40%.
The read: a Second Request adds months and a document production, and it converts a deal spread into a duration trade. The more useful angle for your ads coverage is that both of today’s adtech items are companies arguing they are something else — Roku buying a studio, Zeta calling itself infrastructure. Your Zeta master file has no revenue segments at all, which is exactly the disclosure gap that lets a company reposition without ever being held to a number. That is a publishable observation about the sector rather than about either name.
Consumer platforms & commerce — four names moved
Travel repriced on the Middle East, and Shopify fell hard with nothing behind it
Booking fell about 5.6% and Airbnb about 3.2% on Tuesday after the US president described the Iran ceasefire as over, with Expedia down about 5.5% alongside; magnitudes vary by source, with Booking also reported at −6.72% and Airbnb at −4.1%. There was no company catalyst at either. Raymond James separately upgraded Airbnb to Outperform with a $200 target. Shopify fell roughly 7–8% with no identified catalyst, most plausibly a multiple de-rating after a more than 25% August. At Uber, president and chief operating officer Andrew Macdonald bought 70,000 shares for about $5.31m, per a Form 4, and Scotiabank initiated at Outperform.
The read: Brent through $100 is the input that connects this sector to the rest of the brief, and it is the one macro exposure in the coverage list that is not about AI. It hits Uber’s cost base and travel demand at Booking and Airbnb simultaneously and in opposite directions to the insider buy. On Shopify, resist the temptation to write a reason: a 7–8% move with no catalyst is a data point about positioning, and your Shopify study already found a 10-K error and an unflagged KPI restatement, so the disclosure record there rewards patience over narrative.
Hardware & devices — two names moved
The foldable arrived, the price ladder is the story, and the stock closed lower anyway
At the “Surprise and shine” keynote — John Ternus’s first launch event since becoming chief executive on 1 September — Apple unveiled the iPhone Duo, a foldable with a continuous 7.6-inch inner display, alongside iPhone 18 Pro at $1,199 and Pro Max at $1,299, both $100 above the prior generation, plus AirPods 5 in noise-cancelling and standard versions, Apple Watch Series 12 with a ceramic option and Watch Ultra 4. The Duo starts at $1,999 for 256GB and steps to $2,199, $2,599 and $3,199 at 512GB, 1TB and 2TB — the last being the record foldable price the wires led with. Pre-orders open 16 October and units ship 23 October. AAPL closed $315.34, down 0.28%, having recovered a roughly 1% morning decline during the event, on 64.7 million shares against a 53.7 million three-month average. The muted reaction was read as margin concern against a forward multiple near 36 versus a three-year average of 30.
The read: a $1,999 entry with a $1,200 storage ladder on top is a gross-margin structure, not a unit story, and the December quarter now has a shape as well as a size — higher ASP mix, later shipping date, and a segment line that is not comparable year over year. The upstream cross-read is the sharper one: a foldable panel, a hinge and a 2TB NAND tier land in the same quarter Micron guides to an 86% gross margin. Apple is the largest component buyer in this coverage list with no memory hedge visible in its filings — and your Apple study already notes that the “Total Debt” row is really total liabilities, so the balance-sheet cushion people quote is not the one they think it is.
Dell placed about $4bn of investment-grade notes to refinance an October maturity
Dell issued roughly $4bn of senior notes in four series, to refinance the 4.900% notes maturing 1 October 2026. It comes eight days after a fiscal Q2 in which AI orders were $60.9bn and AI backlog reached $95.0bn from $51.3bn a quarter earlier, on AI-server revenue of $16.4bn.
The read: Dell shipped $16.4bn and booked $60.9bn, and it is funding the gap in the investment-grade market on the same afternoon the ten-year stopped at a 2007 high. That is the working-capital cost of a backlog nobody is pricing: a company converting under a third of incoming orders carries the inventory and the receivable for the difference. Your Dell study is live but the FY2Q27 rebuild and the chart plates are still not uploaded — this financing is the quarter where the backlog line stops being a footnote and starts being a balance-sheet item.
Space & mobility — one name
SPCX picked up its first sell-side Buy, from Pivotal Research at a $220 target, and rose about 4% on Tuesday; the shares sit near $147–149 against a $135 IPO price on 12 June. TSLA rose 3.98% to $368.16 on Tuesday and was flat on Wednesday at $367.81, −0.10%; paid Cybercab rides began in limited parts of Austin on 3 September, and Friday’s 6% fall followed an invite-only event with no Musk appearance and no livestream, plus NHTSA Audit Query AQ26002 covering about 1,000 Cybercabs.
Full-year capex guidance — the build-out, in dollars
| Company | Period | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon | calendar 2026 | ~$220bn |
| Alphabet | calendar 2026 | $195–205bn |
| Microsoft | calendar 2026, revised Jul | ~$175bn |
| Meta | calendar 2026, incl. leases | $130–145bn |
| Oracle | FY2027, gross estimate | ~$90–95bn (~$70bn net, guided) |
| TSMC | calendar 2026, raised at Q2 | $60–64bn |
| CoreWeave | calendar 2026 | $35–39bn |
| Micron | FY26, ends Aug · net | ~$27bn |
| Intel | calendar 2026, gross | >$20bn |
Where each name stands
| Name | Last print | Key figures from it |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | ||
| NVDA | 26 Aug · FQ2’27 | Rev $96.2bn +106%; DC $89.0bn +117%; GM 75.0%; GAAP EPS $2.46; FQ3 guide $108.0bn ±2%, assuming no China DC compute revenue. Agreed 2 Sep to buy Hugging Face for $12.93bn (~$11.9bn cash plus up to ~$1.0bn equity retention), closing 1H27 |
| AVGO | 2 Sep · FQ3’26 | Rev $29.6bn +86%; AI semis $16.7bn +221% and +54% QoQ; FQ4 guide ~$34.8bn, AI semis $21.7bn +236%. Call only: FY26 AI $58bn, FY27 ~$115bn, FY28 ~$230bn on secured supply |
| MU | 24 Jun · FQ3’26 | Rev $41,456m, +346% YoY on HBM and strategic customer agreements; GAAP GM 84.6% (non-GAAP 84.9%); GAAP EPS $24.67; OCF $25.39bn; net capex $7,084m. FQ4 guide $50.0bn ±$1.0bn at ~86% GM, non-GAAP EPS $31.00 ±$1.00 |
| QCOM | 8 Sep · 8-K | Multi-generation custom-silicon partnership with Amazon for AWS inference and 1.6T optical; warrants over 25m QCOM shares (~$4bn) issued to Amazon, filed under Item 3.02 |
| AMD | 8 Sep · Citi TMT | Call only: FY2027 data-centre revenue ~$70bn, roughly double 2026; AI GPUs low-$40bns; Anthropic, Meta and OpenAI named as anchors; $29–30bn of purchase commitments |
| MRVL | 8 Sep · CNBC | Call only: FY27 ~$12bn and FY28 ~$18bn, from ~$10bn / ~$13.5bn guided in December, >$15bn of FY28 from data centre. FQ2’27 filed: rev $2.739bn +37%, DC $2.171bn +46%. Google warrant up to 58,970,907 shares at $206.58. Investor Day 6 Oct |
| TSM | 10 Aug · Jul monthly | NT$467.58bn +44.7% YoY, +5.6% MoM; Jan–Jul NT$2,872.06bn +37.0%. Call only: 2026 capex $60–64bn from $52–56bn, capital intensity ~36%. August print due 10 Sep, 02:30 BRT |
| LRCX | 9 Sep · Citi TMT | Call only: CY2026 WFE “low $150bns” from $135bn then $140bn; $9–10bn WFE per $100bn of AI data-centre capex; served share low-30s to >36% |
| KLAC | 9 Sep · Citi TMT | Call only: CY2026 WFE mid-$150bns, with upside flagged toward ~$190bn next year |
| AMAT | 8 Sep · Citi TMT | Call only: rolling eight-quarter customer forecasts up every quarter; US cloud-provider capex >$700bn, global approaching $1tn |
| ASML | 8 Sep · releases | Expanded High-NA EUV collaboration with Samsung; High-NA readiness collaboration with Intel Foundry; Eindhoven campus construction begun |
| ARM | 8 Sep · launches | AI-native agentic compute platform, Neoverse CSS N4, Physical AI ecosystem, Arm AI Portal; shares +4.0% |
| INTC | 11 Aug · equity | $20bn common offering, 210,526,315 shares at $95, upsized from $15bn, closed 12 Aug. Nvidia’s stake is 214,776,632 shares bought at $23.28 for $5bn (closed 26 Dec 2025), marked ~$30bn in the 14 Aug 13F. Q2’26: 2026 capex >$20bn gross, ~$12.2bn SCIP partner contributions in H1; US government ~10% holder. Closed 8 Sep $104.47 +9.05% on a Northland upgrade; 9 Sep $106.24 +1.69% |
| TXN | ||
| CDNS | ||
| SNPS | ||
| Cloud & AI infrastructure | ||
| ORCL | 10 Jun · FQ4’26 | Q4 rev $19.2bn +21%; IaaS $5.8bn +93%; RPO $638bn +363%, ~$75bn prepaid or customer-supplied hardware, 12% within 12 months; FY26 capex $55.663bn. Call only: FY27 net capex ~$70bn, ~$40bn of debt and equity incl. a $20bn ATM. Reports FQ1’27 Thu 10 Sep, 18:00 BRT |
| CRWV | 11 Aug · Q2’26 | Rev $2,575m +112%; net loss $626m; backlog ~$104bn; net interest $640m in the quarter; Q2 capex $6,422m; CY2026 capex $35–39bn; debt $35,068m carrying / ~$35,551m principal. Traded $98.07–$100.58 on 9 Sep |
| AMZN | 30 Jul · Q2’26 | Net sales $200.6bn +20%; AWS $42.2bn, “increased 37%” per the release; quarterly capex $54,208m vs $32.1bn. Call only: 2026 cash capex ~$220bn from ~$200bn, attributed to higher memory cost. Signed the Qualcomm custom-silicon partnership 8 Sep |
| MSFT | 29 Jul · FQ4’26 | Rev $90.0bn +18%; Microsoft Cloud $59.3bn +27%; Azure +43%; op income $40.6bn; PP&E additions $35.8bn, ~$41bn incl. finance leases (+69%). Building useful lives 15→25 years from FY27; CY2026 capex ~$175bn after the reclassification, plan unchanged |
| GOOGL | 22 Jul · Q2’26 | Cloud +82%; Q2 capex $44,924m, ~60% servers / 40% data centres and networking. Call only: 2026 capex $195–205bn from $180–190bn, rising significantly again in 2027. Closed $330.65 −2.28% on 9 Sep |
| NET | 9 Sep · product | +9–10% to ~$308–313 on an OpenAI-powered vulnerability service inside Cloudflare Managed Defense; underlying OpenAI arrangement announced 3 Sep |
| VRT | 2 Sep · M&A | Agreed to acquire UtilityInnovation Group for ~$1.45bn cash plus up to $1.15bn earnout (~$2.6bn), about 13x expected 2027 UIG EBITDA, to shorten time-to-power for AI data centres |
| GEV | ||
| SaaS & enterprise software | ||
| ADBE | 3 Sep · not a print | Anil Chakravarthy named president & CEO effective 1 Dec; Narayen to executive chair; David Wadhwani departing. Q3 FY2026 reports Thu 10 Sep after the close, call 18:00–19:00 BRT |
| CRM | 8 Sep · session | −3.9% to $249.12 on the GPT-6 Astra selloff. FQ2’27 filed: rev $11.3bn +11% incl. $456m Informatica; cRPO $33.5bn +14%; non-GAAP op margin 34.1%; Agentforce ARR >$1.5bn +240% on a widened definition, not like-for-like |
| NOW | 8 Sep · session | ~−5% on the same selloff; BTIG raised its target to $170 |
| SAP | 8 Sep · press | Bloomberg: supervisory board members believe SAP needs an AI breakthrough within months; CEO Klein presented at Communacopia the same day |
| PANW | 1 Sep · FQ4/FY26 | Q4 rev $3.41bn +34%; NGS ARR $9.10bn +63%; FY26 rev $11.48bn +24.5%; FY27 guide $14.10–14.20bn; −9.28% on 2 Sep |
| SNOW | 2 Sep · FQ2’27 | Beat; FY product revenue growth guide raised to 36%, a third consecutive acceleration |
| MDB | 1 Sep | Beat; Atlas growth flat for a fifth consecutive quarter |
| CRWD | 2 Sep · Fal.Con | Agentic identity and open-source supply-chain products announced; presents at Communacopia 10 Sep |
| DDOG | Presents at Communacopia 10 Sep | |
| HUBS | ||
| WDAY | ||
| Ads & adtech | ||
| META | 8 Sep · launch | Muse agent on Muse Spark; free / $20 / $100 monthly tiers; closed $653.69 +6.55%. Q2’26 filed: rev $60.801bn +28%, net income $15.848bn −14%, capex $31.08bn incl. leases, OCF $31.862bn, FCF $784m vs $8,549m. Call only: 2026 capex $130–145bn, narrowed from $125–145bn |
| ROKU | 9 Sep · 8-K | DOJ Second Request on the $22bn Fox acquisition at $160/share; HSR clock extended; shares −2% after hours |
| ZETA | 8–9 Sep · conferences | Repositioning as enterprise data and AI infrastructure; Palantir, Snowflake and OpenAI partnerships cited; 2025 NRR 120%; average deal size +40% |
| TTD | 4 Sep · 8-K | 15% workforce reduction, about 575 roles, $39–51m charge — the largest in company history. Q2’26: rev $715.1m vs $694.0m, growth 3% |
| NFLX | Inventory opened to all Trade Desk buyers on 20 Jul with no spend minimum | |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | ||
| BKNG | 8 Sep · session | −5.6% (reported up to −6.72%) on the Iran ceasefire headlines; no company catalyst |
| ABNB | 8 Sep · session | −3.2% (reported up to −4.1%) on the same; upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James, $200 target. Q2’26 revenue $3.6bn +17% |
| SHOP | 8 Sep · session | −7–8% with no identified catalyst, after a >25% August |
| UBER | 8 Sep · Form 4 | President and COO Andrew Macdonald bought 70,000 shares for ~$5.31m; Scotiabank initiated at Outperform. About 3,300 layoffs reported around 2 Sep, no 8-K |
| WMT | 20 Aug | $2.9bn tariff refund |
| Hardware & devices | ||
| AAPL | 9 Sep · keynote | iPhone Duo foldable, 7.6-inch inner display: $1,999 / $2,199 / $2,599 / $3,199 at 256GB / 512GB / 1TB / 2TB, pre-order 16 Oct, ships 23 Oct; iPhone 18 Pro $1,199 and Pro Max $1,299, both +$100; AirPods 5, Watch Series 12, Watch Ultra 4. Closed $315.34 −0.28% on 64.7m shares. John Ternus’s first launch event as CEO |
| DELL | 9 Sep · notes | ~$4bn of senior notes in four series to refinance the 4.900% notes maturing 1 Oct 2026. FQ2’27: rev $47.0bn +58%; AI server rev $16.4bn; AI orders $60.9bn; backlog $95.0bn from $51.3bn; FY27 guide ~$192bn |
| CSCO | ||
| Space & mobility | ||
| SPCX | 8 Sep · initiation | Pivotal Research initiates Buy, $220 target; +4%. Trades ~$147–149 against a $135 IPO on 12 Jun. First 10-Q 4 Aug: three segments post-xAI/X merger, no quarterly history before 1Q26, pre-Feb-2026 figures retrospectively recast |
| TSLA | 9 Sep · session | $367.81, −0.10%, after +3.98% to $368.16 on 8 Sep. Paid Cybercab rides began in parts of Austin 3 Sep; −6% on 4 Sep on the invite-only event and NHTSA Audit Query AQ26002 covering ~1,000 Cybercabs. Q2’26: rev $28.24bn; deliveries 480,126 +25%; op income $398m −57%; FCF −$1.09bn |
On the calendar
| When | Period | What |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 10 Sep | 02:30 BRT | TSMC August revenue, 13:30 Taipei. July was NT$467.58bn, +44.7% YoY and +5.6% MoM. |
| Thu 10 Sep | 10:30 BRT | US open. Also NVDA’s ex-date for the $0.25 quarterly dividend, payable 1 October, raised from $0.01 in May. |
| Thu 10 Sep | 12:50 BRT | NVIDIA at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology, 08:50 Pacific. Datadog and CrowdStrike also present. |
| Thu 10 Sep | 18:00 BRT | Oracle fiscal Q1 2027. After the US close, call 17:00 ET. Guide: revenue +27–29%, total cloud +58–64% USD. |
| Thu 10 Sep | 18:00 BRT | Adobe fiscal Q3 2026. After the close, call 14:00–15:00 Pacific. Overlaps Oracle almost exactly. |
| 15–16 Sep | ~15:00 BRT, 16th | FOMC decision and projections. After today’s 4.834% ten-year stop and Brent through $100, this is the main macro input for every levered name in the coverage. |
| Wed 30 Sep | 17:30 BRT | Micron fiscal Q4 2026, call 14:30 Mountain. Guided to $50.0bn ±$1.0bn at ~86% gross margin, non-GAAP EPS $31.00 ±$1.00. |
| Tue 6 Oct | — | Marvell Investor Day. First formal outlook since the Google warrant disclosure and this week’s raise to ~$12bn / ~$18bn. |
| Thu 16 Oct | — | iPhone Duo pre-orders open; units ship 23 October, inside Apple’s fiscal Q1. |
| ~10 Oct | 02:30 BRT | TSMC September revenue, closing the third quarter ahead of the mid-October results conference. |
Story worth owning
Customer warrants are now a standard term in AI silicon contracts, and nobody has counted them.
In twelve months, three companies in this coverage list have handed equity to the customer buying their chips. Marvell issued Google a warrant over 58,970,907 shares at $206.58, tied to purchase targets running to fiscal 2033. Cerebras deducted customer warrants from revenue, which is why two figures for the same quarter sit 17% apart. And on Monday Qualcomm issued Amazon warrants over 25m shares, roughly $4bn, to win an AWS inference programme. Three issuers, three different disclosure treatments, one economic structure: the buyer is being paid to buy.
Nobody independent has assembled the register. The piece is a single table — issuer, counterparty, share count, strike, implied value, vesting condition, and, critically, where it lands in the accounts: contra-revenue, a customer-incentive asset amortised against future sales, or an equity issuance cost. Those three treatments produce three different revenue lines from identical economics, and the sell-side models the headline number in every case. Your Marvell study already found that the Google warrant implies purchase volumes of roughly $120bn against $18bn of company guidance — that single inconsistency, repeated across a register, is the story.
It is also the sharpest available test of the AI-capex numbers everyone is quoting. If hyperscalers are buying supply partly with their suppliers’ equity, then a share of the $700bn-plus capex aggregate is not cash leaving the buyer at all, and a share of the vendors’ forward revenue guides is contingent on volumes the buyers have not committed to in cash. You hold the Marvell, Cerebras and Qualcomm spines already, and the AI-bubble radar exists to carry exactly this kind of standing register. Publish it before the October prints, so it reads as a framework rather than a reaction.
Sources
- CNBC, Qualcomm and Amazon data-centre infrastructure deal — 8 September 2026.
- Yahoo Finance live blog, Stock market today, Wednesday 9 September — 9 September 2026.
- US Treasury auction results, TreasuryDirect, 10-year note CUSIP 91282CRF0 — 9 September 2026.
- Rigzone, Brent breaks $100 per barrel — 9 September 2026.
- Investing.com, Meta jumps premarket; analysts on the Muse AI agent — 9 September 2026.
- Meta Platforms, Q2 2026 results, Exhibit 99.1 — SEC, 29 July 2026.
- 24/7 Wall St, Meta rises 6% as Muse arrives; Alphabet falls 2% — 9 September 2026.
- Macworld, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max: price, specs, release date — 9 September 2026.
- Benzinga, Apple stock rises on the iPhone Duo launch at $1,999 — 9 September 2026.
- Bloomberg, Apple’s $3,199 iPhone Duo sets an industry record — 9 September 2026.
- Intel Investor Relations, Upsize and pricing of the $20bn common stock offering — 11 August 2026.
- Tom’s Hardware, Nvidia’s $5bn Intel stake marked at $30bn in the 13F — August 2026.
- TSMC, July 2026 revenue report — 10 August 2026. Also filed as a Form 6-K.
- TrendForce, TSMC lifts 2026 capex to $60–64bn — 16 July 2026.
- Micron, Record results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 — 24 June 2026.
- Micron Investor Relations, Fiscal Q4 2026 results date — 26 August 2026.
- Oracle Investor Relations, Record Q4 and FY 2026 results — 10 June 2026.
- Oracle Investor Relations, Equity and debt financing plan for calendar year 2026 — 2026.
- Microsoft Investor Relations, FY26 Q4 press release and webcast — 29 July 2026.
- Fortune, Andy Jassy on Amazon’s $220bn of 2026 spending — 30 July 2026.
- Investing.com, Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings call transcript — 22 July 2026.
- Broadcom Investor Relations, Third quarter fiscal 2026 results — 2 September 2026.
- NVIDIA, Form 8-K, Hugging Face definitive agreement — SEC, 2 September 2026.
- NVIDIA Investor Relations, Upcoming event for the financial community — 2026.
- Adobe via Business Wire, Adobe to announce Q3 FY2026 results on 10 September — 31 August 2026.
- Vertiv Investor Relations, Agreement to acquire UtilityInnovation Group — 2 September 2026.
- CNBC, Tesla drops 6% as the Cybercab update underwhelms — 4 September 2026.
- Vantage Markets, CoreWeave daily trading note — 9 September 2026.
- Al Jazeera, US appeals court says social-media addiction lawsuits can proceed — 10 August 2026.
- Timothy Sykes market wire, Alphabet: legal risk and the AI battle — 9 September 2026.
Figures are as reported by the companies and the sources listed above, fetched on 9 September 2026, and have not been independently verified against the underlying filings except where an SEC document or company release is cited directly. Guidance taken from earnings calls and investor conferences rather than filed releases is labelled as such throughout, and a large share of the capex and forward-revenue figures in this brief fall into that category. Prices and index levels are last-session marks and will be stale by the next open. This brief is internal research support for CoreValue Research. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
