S&P Global says the hyperscalers carry more AI debt than anyone can see. Overnight Seoul fell 3.7%, SoftBank 6% with its credit swaps at a four-year high, and Nscale is reported close to a second $45bn deal with Anthropic.
Monday’s chip bounce did not reach the credit, and overnight the credit came back. In New York the Philadelphia Semiconductor index rose +1.61% to 11,316.34, ending an eight-session losing streak, and Amazon made +4.98% on a Morgan Stanley top-pick call; but CoreWeave gave up…
Chips close their worst week since spring 2025 with an eighth straight fall and the neoclouds lose another 11–12% on Friday. On Monday morning Goldman calls CoreWeave a Buy while cutting its target by a quarter, and the Telegraph reports Microsoft has walked away as anchor tenant of an Nscale site in Essex.
Friday priced the AI build-out as a credit problem; Monday morning the sell side is pricing it as an entry point, and neither has new information about cash flow. On Friday the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell −3.83% to 11,137.29, its eighth straight decline, and −11.4% on…
CoreWeave’s default swaps hit a record 1,194bp and Jensen Huang says it needs no backstop; the stock closes +5.9% anyway. Seoul ends a seven-day fall, Warsh says nothing and the market hears a pause, and the money that left AI infrastructure this week shows up in application software. The bond market and the equity market now disagree about the same company.
The same company got two prices on Thursday. CoreWeave’s five-year credit default swaps rose as much as 74.5bp to a record 1,194.5bp intraday (ICE Data Services via Bloomberg), a level that prices a more than 60% chance of default within five years, and the 9.75% notes due 2031…
TSMC prints a sixth record quarter, holds 2026 capex at $60–64bn and says it now sends its own teams to inspect US data-centre power; the Kospi falls 7.6%, CoreWeave’s bonds yield 14.8%, Anthropic shows investors $16.8bn of quarterly revenue, and PPI prints 6.3%. The top of the chain is underwriting a build-out the bond market is repricing.
The supply end and the capital end of the AI build-out reported on the same morning again, and the gap between them widened. At 02:00 ET TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of NT$1,494bn (US$46.72bn, +41.2% y/y in dollars), net income of NT$763bn ( +68.7% ), a 66.4% gross…
ASML says it cannot build enough tools through 2028; CoreWeave’s bonds close at 14.5% and the stock opens −13%; CPI runs hot at 3.7% and the 10-year touches 5.31%. The AI build-out’s demand and its cost of capital are now moving in opposite directions.
Two ends of the same supply chain reported this morning, and they disagree about money. At 01:00 ET ASML said third-quarter sales were a record €11.66bn at a record 57.5% gross margin, raised the 2026 guide to €44–45bn, guided the fourth quarter to €14.2–15.2bn, and wrote that…
Korea’s “Black Tuesday”: SK hynix −10.1%, Samsung −7.4%, Kospi −5.5% on a Chinese DRAM claim, while the IMF and BlackRock both name an AI correction as the risk to manage.
The memory trade broke overnight, and it broke on a claim, not a number. SK hynix closed −10.09% at ₩1,443,000 and Samsung −7.39% at ₩232,000 (Korea JoongAng Daily), their second day of selling since Seoul reopened. The Kospi fell −5.46% to 6,035.35, dipped below 6,000 intraday,…
Broadcom’s Hock Tan says capital, not chips, is becoming AI’s biggest constraint. Korea catches up with last week’s chip sell-off: Kospi −3.65%, SK hynix −4.5%, Samsung −4.4%.
The chip supplier now says money, not silicon, is the bottleneck. Speaking on a panel in Singapore on Monday, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said capital will be the biggest constraint as AI development continues, and that Broadcom is getting past the wafer and memory shortages (Reuters,…
OpenAI’s run-rate is ~$50bn, not $70bn: Oracle falls 5.5%, CoreWeave 7.8% and the SOX 3.4%; futures bounce after Bloomberg reports a $70bn year-end target.
Coverage expanded today from 50 to 100 listed names in nine sectors , plus OpenAI and Anthropic as tracked private labs. Cloud is now split into Hyperscalers & neoclouds, Power & data-centre infrastructure, and Networking & optical. This edition was re-run on the new list.
SpaceX wants to borrow $40bn to buy Nvidia chips; TSMC’s third quarter runs above guide on Bloomberg’s count; oil jumps 5% and futures fall.
The build-out is now being financed against the chips themselves. Reuters, confirming an earlier Financial Times report, says SpaceX is seeking about $40bn to buy Nvidia AI chips: roughly $10bn of bank loans and $30bn of investment-grade debt , with Apollo expected to lead and…
Marvell sets a $70–90bn fiscal 2031 revenue frame and the stock adds 5.8%; Google signs 3.6 GW of Constellation power that sits outside its capex guide.
Marvell raised more than expected, and further out than expected. At its New York investor day it set fiscal 2028 revenue at about $20bn (consensus ~$18.2bn), raised the fiscal 2029 custom-silicon target to more than $12bn (from more than $10bn) and laid out a $70–90bn revenue…
Marvell has to raise its custom-silicon targets at 09:00 ET, with Nvidia at a record close and the 10-year at a 24-year high. OpenAI is pricing its own $30bn round at $1.4tn.
Marvell’s investor day is the only scheduled company event in our coverage today, and expectations are specific. The livestream starts at 09:00 ET in New York, half an hour before the open. The current framework has custom XPU revenue at roughly $10bn in fiscal 2029 , and custom…
Musk confirms Terafab is talking to TSMC. Intel, the only named foundry partner, is down 4% pre-market, and TSMC closed up 3% in Taipei.
A quiet weekend with one story that matters. On Friday Tim Culpan’s Culpium newsletter reported that TSMC is discussing a collaboration with Terafab , the chip venture SpaceX and Tesla are building in Grimes County, Texas. The structure Culpan considers most likely has TSMC…