The one thing
Constellation led Monday. It closed +10.46% on adjusted EPS up 66% and a second raise to its full-year guide, 8.11 points better than an S&P 500 that rose 2.35%. After the close The Trade Desk, which had guided to a revenue fall of at least 12%, reported flat revenue of $736m. It traded as much as +27% after hours, but was −7.03% in Tuesday’s pre-market at 09:12 ET. Rocket Lab beat its revenue range but spent more than it guided (−8.60% pre-market), and Zeta beat and raised its full-year guide again (−0.68%).
The rest of the week asks what the AI clouds’ borrowing has bought. Since their last results CoreWeave has sold $4.2bn of convertible notes and Nebius $5.75bn, plus a $3.5bn bridge loan; SoftBank, which reported overnight, has paid its last $10bn into OpenAI with notes paying up to 9.75%. CoreWeave’s own guide has revenue up 158% and interest at 3.3–4.7 times adjusted operating income. Nebius’s full-year range needs quarterly revenue 73–108% above June’s (our arithmetic). Cerebras guided to +2.4% on the quarter before a 25% step in the fourth. They report in the week CNBC reported that Microsoft plans to use fewer outside cloud providers; neither CoreWeave nor Nebius has commented.
On Thursday the suppliers report against their largest guides. Cisco guided to revenue +22% and about $7.5bn of hyperscaler AI revenue for the year, Applied Materials to +51%. Infineon, overnight, delivered its guide (+19% at a 23.8% margin) and guided fiscal 2027 to about €20bn, more than 20% growth; SoftBank’s net asset value fell to ¥59.8tn from June’s ¥72.3tn record.
This week’s ★ reporters: each company’s own guide
| Name | When (ET) | Company guide for the quarter | Last earnings day | Average move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 9 November: reported (guide → result) | ||||
| Constellation Energy | Before open; call 09:00 | Full year only: adjusted EPS $11.50–12.50 → raised to $12.50–12.80; Q3 $5.06 | −1.52% | ±6.3% |
| The Trade Desk | After close; call 17:00 | Revenue at least $650m → $736m; adjusted EBITDA about $160m → $265.8m (new definition) | −21.90% | ±13.8% |
| Rocket Lab | After close; call 17:00 | Revenue $250–265m → $267.8m; adjusted EBITDA −$17m to −$23m → −$18.0m | −0.04% | ±8.9% |
| Zeta Global | After close; call 16:30 | Revenue $469–472m → $492.7m; adjusted EBITDA $115–116m → $121.0m | +11.58% | ±11.8% |
| Tuesday 10 November: reported overnight | ||||
| Infineon | Reported 07:30 CET (01:30 ET) | Revenue about €4.7bn; Segment Result Margin about 23% → €4,706m at 23.8%; fiscal 2027 guided to about €20bn | −5.71% | – |
| SoftBank Group | Reported 15:30 JST (01:30 ET) | No guidance → NAV ¥59.8tn; LTV 15.9%; quarterly net loss ¥1,115.3bn | −2.51% | – |
| Tuesday 10 November, after the close | ||||
| CoreWeave | Call 17:00 | Revenue $3.45–3.60bn; adjusted operating income $200–260m; interest $860–940m | +19.28% | ±15.4% |
| Thursday 12 November, before the open | ||||
| Nebius Group | Call 08:00 | No quarterly guide; 2026 revenue $3.0–3.4bn, reaffirmed | +34.14% | – |
| Thursday 12 November, after the close | ||||
| Cisco | Call 16:30 | Revenue $18.0–18.2bn; non-GAAP EPS $1.32–1.34 | −8.40% | ±5.5% |
| Applied Materials | Call 16:30 | Revenue $10.25bn ± $0.5bn; non-GAAP EPS $4.02 ± $0.20 | −5.12% | ±5.4% |
| Cerebras Systems | Call 17:00 | Core revenue about $214–216m; core gross margin 38–40% | −11.85% | – |
Prepared before Tuesday’s open. Constellation’s move is Monday’s close. The Trade Desk, Rocket Lab and Zeta reported after Monday’s close, so their moves are the last after-hours trades and Tuesday pre-market trades to 09:12 ET, against Monday’s close; they will change at the open.
Every company confirmed its date and call time. Guidance is from each company’s last earnings release (CoreWeave’s from its outlook presentation and call); for Monday’s four, the arrow shows the result they reported, and their “last earnings day” is the one before (August). “Last earnings day” is the stock’s move after that release, and “average move” the average size of its earnings-day moves over the 12 prints before it (fewer for recent listings), both from our price database; we do not hold earlier results dates for Infineon, SoftBank, Nebius or Cerebras. Wednesday is Veterans Day: US stock markets are open, bond markets closed. We leave out analyst consensus, as in the last two editions.
Monday’s four, company by company
Monday 9 November, before the open
Constellation Energy · ★ Adjusted EPS +66% with Calpine, and the full-year guide raised to $12.50–12.80
Results (8-K, 06:53 ET). Revenue $9,550m (+45.4%), of which $3,384m from the Calpine segment bought in January; without it revenue fell about 6% (our arithmetic). Adjusted operating EPS $5.06, against $3.04; GAAP EPS $5.19, above the adjusted figure this time because of unrealised hedge gains and a tax benefit. Nuclear output +0.4% at a 97.2% capacity factor; nuclear production-tax-credit revenue $44m, against $175m a year earlier. Guide. Constellation gives only a full-year figure: adjusted operating EPS raised and narrowed to $12.50–12.80 from $11.50–12.50, its second raise this year, which leaves roughly $2.15–2.45 for the fourth quarter (our arithmetic). It reiterated base EPS growth of 20% or more a year to 2029. Also in the release: 20-year agreements with Amazon (690 MW at Calvert Cliffs) and Google (about 890 MW of uprates across 11 units), a conditional DOE loan guarantee of up to $5.0bn, and the purchase of the Rhode Island State Energy Center from Shell for $715m.
Market reaction: opened +4.18% and closed +10.46% at $276.09, 8.11 points better than the S&P 500 (+2.35%) and 8.93 points better than the utilities ETF (+1.53%): the third-largest of its last 13 earnings-day moves.
The read: Our Constellation study argues that its policy revenue works as an inverse hedge and that its volumes are not growing. This quarter shows both: the tax credit almost gone as power prices rose, and nuclear output up 0.4%. Calpine supplied the growth; the 20-year Amazon and Google agreements are the new, contracted part.
Monday 9 November, after the close
The Trade Desk · ★ Revenue flat at $736m against a guide for a fall of at least 12%; the fourth-quarter floor still implies a decline
Results (8-K, 16:09 ET). Revenue $736m, −0.5% on the year, against a guide of “at least $650 million”; adjusted EBITDA $265.8m, against about $160m. Adjusted EBITDA now adds back restructuring charges ($44.3m this quarter, from the 15% staff cut announced on 3 September); on the definition used when the guide was set it would be about $221.6m (our arithmetic). GAAP net income $38.1m, against $115.5m a year earlier. Guide. Fourth-quarter revenue of at least $755m, at least 10.8% below a year earlier (our arithmetic), and adjusted EBITDA of at least $280m. The board added $731m to the buyback, taking the amount available to $1bn.
Market reaction: closed +15.47% at $14.93 on Monday, before the results; +2.41% at the end of after-hours trading (20:00 ET), and −7.03% at $13.88 in Tuesday’s pre-market at 09:12 ET.
The read: Our Trade Desk study expected steady growth to bring margin leverage. This year runs the other way: revenue flat to down and an adjusted margin of 36%, against 43% a year ago (30% on the old definition, our arithmetic). The release gives no gross spend or take rate, so whether the weakness is volume or price waits for the 10-Q.
Rocket Lab · ★ Revenue of $268m above its range and a $3.57bn backlog; operating costs ran over the guide on the Iridium deal
Results (8-K, 16:06 ET). Revenue $267.8m (+72.7%), against a $250–265m guide; GAAP gross margin 33.6% and non-GAAP 38.4%, both above their ranges, though non-GAAP was 41.5% last quarter; GAAP operating expenses $169.3m, against $143–149m, including $21.3m of Iridium deal costs; adjusted EBITDA −$18.0m, inside its range. Backlog $3.57bn, up from $2.36bn in June, including more than $515m of Neutron contracts, for several of which the base price rose to $70m; the first Neutron launch is now no earlier than 2027. Guide. Fourth-quarter revenue $270–290m, GAAP gross margin 34–36%, adjusted EBITDA −$14m to −$20m, on 681m shares (641m were guided for the third quarter, before the share sale that funds Iridium).
Market reaction: closed +10.91% at $58.86 on Monday, before the results; −6.66% at the end of after-hours trading (20:00 ET), and −8.60% at $53.80 in Tuesday’s pre-market at 09:12 ET.
The read: Revenue and backlog beat; the cost line and the share count carry the Iridium purchase, which Rocket Lab still expects to close in mid-2027.
Zeta Global · ★ Revenue of $493m, +46%, growth excluding Marigold at 30%, and the full-year guide raised again
Results (8-K, 16:05 ET). Revenue $492.7m, against a $469–472m guide. Excluding Marigold’s enterprise business ($48.0m) and political revenue ($7.4m), growth was 30%, against the 23–24% the guide implied. Adjusted EBITDA $121.0m, against $115–116m; GAAP net income $38.3m, against a loss a year earlier; stock-based compensation $50.0m. Guide. Fourth-quarter revenue $521–525m; full year $1,853–1,857m (from $1,811–1,824m) and GAAP EPS $0.22–0.24 (from $0.09–0.11). The release also names two new acquisitions, Senso Agentic and Social Audience, without terms.
Market reaction: closed +4.48% at $32.42 on Monday, before the results; −5.15% at the end of after-hours trading (20:00 ET), and −0.68% at $32.20 in Tuesday’s pre-market at 09:12 ET.
The read: Our Zeta study rests on growth that was 93% organic and on a wide gap between adjusted and reported profit. Reported profit is now positive and growth excluding Marigold accelerated, but with two more purchases the acquired share of growth keeps rising.
Still to come, company by company
Tuesday 10 November: reported overnight (Europe and Japan)
Infineon · ★ Fourth-quarter revenue of €4.7bn at a 23.8% margin, and fiscal 2027 guided to about €20bn
Guide (Q3 release, 5 August). Fourth-quarter revenue of around €4.7bn at US$1.15 to the euro, +12.7% on the quarter and +19.2% on the year (our arithmetic), at a Segment Result Margin of around 23%. Full year: revenue around €16.3bn, Segment Result Margin around 20%, adjusted free cash flow around €1.85bn (raised from €1.65bn). Last quarter: record revenue of €4,172m (+13%) at a 19.1% Segment Result Margin; Power & Sensor Systems €1,442m (+14% on the quarter, on AI data-centre power) at 24.9%. Since then: a new three-segment structure (Automotive, Power Systems, Edge Systems), which frames the 2027 outlook, the C2i power-management acquisition, and about €1.1bn for a 300mm gallium-nitride fab in Villach (27 October).
Reported overnight. Fourth-quarter revenue of €4,706m, +19% on the year and +13% on the quarter, at a Segment Result Margin of 23.8% against the guided 23%; fiscal 2026 revenue €16,353m (+12%) at 19.7%. Power & Sensor Systems made €1,796m at a 30.8% margin. Outlook: first-quarter revenue of around €4.6bn (+27% on the year) at around 23%; fiscal 2027 revenue of around €20bn, more than 20% growth, with the Segment Result Margin rising to the mid-20s. Capacity agreements with AI customers, signed and in negotiation, now pass €10bn, against “a high single-digit billion” in August (company analyst-call statement).
Last print in our database: −5.71% on the day of the third-quarter results.
The read: Our Infineon study’s spine is record revenue at a 19.1% margin, against 28.6% at the 2023 peak. The fourth quarter’s 23.8% and the mid-20s guided for 2027 are a recovery, but still below that peak. From fiscal 2027 the new segments retire Power & Sensor Systems, the segment that made 30.8% in the fourth quarter, so the comparison starts again.
SoftBank Group · ★ The first print since the bridge loan was refinanced at up to 9.75%, and since China blocked ABB Robotics
Guide. None; SoftBank gives no earnings guidance. Last quarter (to 30 June): a record net asset value of ¥72.3tn, net income of ¥347.3bn and a loan-to-value ratio of 13.0%. Since then: the $25.9bn bridge loan was repaid early (15 September); a 4.75% yen bond and about $11.1bn of dollar and euro notes at 7.125–9.75% (24 September); the third and final $10bn OpenAI payment (1 October), $64.6bn in total for about 13%; DigitalBridge completed (30 September). On 6 November SoftBank said China had notified it on 4 November that its purchase of ABB’s robotics business is prohibited in China; the deal has not been terminated and the two are “in close dialogue”.
Reported overnight. Net asset value of ¥59.8tn at 30 September, against the ¥72.3tn record at 30 June; loan-to-value 15.9%, against 13.0%. Net income attributable to owners was −¥1,115.3bn for the quarter, including a ¥597.2bn loss on power-generation equipment for US AI data centres. SoftBank raised $56.5bn in the quarter and repaid its bridge facility early. The report came after the Tokyo close, so the shares trade on it from Wednesday morning in Tokyo.
Last print in our database: −2.51% the day after the first-quarter results.
The read: Our SoftBank study found the record ¥72.3tn lasted five weeks (¥58.3tn at 5 August prices) and that the loan-to-value ratio fell only because assets rose, while net debt grew. The 30 September figure, ¥59.8tn, confirms the fall, and the loan-to-value ratio rose to 15.9% as the asset value came down.
Tuesday 10 November, after the close
CoreWeave · ★ Guided to revenue +158%, with interest guided at 3.3–4.7 times adjusted operating income
Guide (11 August outlook presentation and call; the release carries none). Revenue $3.45–3.60bn, +158% at the midpoint (our arithmetic); adjusted operating income $200–260m; interest expense $860–940m; capex $11.5–13.5bn. Full year: revenue $12.4–13.2bn, adjusted operating income $0.96–1.15bn, capex $35–39bn, and an annualised revenue run-rate of $18.5–19.5bn on exit. Last quarter: revenue $2,575m (+112%); adjusted operating income $128m, a 5% margin; net loss $626m; backlog $104.2bn, which leaves out more than $25bn of commitments added early in the third quarter. Since then: a programme to sell up to 35m shares and $4.2bn of 2.875% convertible notes (17–22 September); the investor deck that came with them reported a price increase of about 25% across its products in July.
Last print in our database: +19.28%; average earnings-day move ±15.4% over the three prints before that.
The read: Our CoreWeave study takes the guide to the first positive GAAP operating income in four quarters (+$8–93m) and a wider net loss ($817–982m against $626m), because interest grows faster than the margin. CoreWeave reports four days after CNBC reported that Microsoft plans to use fewer outside “neocloud” providers; the company has not commented. Its largest customer was 67% of 2025 revenue.
Thursday 12 November, before the open
Nebius Group · ★ No quarterly guide; the full-year range needs $1.0–1.2bn of revenue a quarter in the second half
Guide (full year only, reaffirmed 12 August). Revenue $3.0–3.4bn; annualised AI-cloud revenue of $7–9bn at year end; adjusted EBITDA margin of about 40%; more than $9bn of customer prepayments in 2026; 5 GW of contracted power at year end. First-half revenue was $981.3m, so the range needs $1.01–1.21bn a quarter from July to December, against $582.3m in the June quarter (our arithmetic). Last quarter: revenue $582.3m (+454%); annualised revenue $3.0bn; adjusted EBITDA $236.2m (41%); capex $5.66bn; operating cash flow $2.25bn, mostly customer prepayments. Since then: $5.75bn of convertible notes, with earlier notes exchanged for about 15.8m shares (19–24 August); a Palantir partnership (8 September); a $3.5bn secured 364-day bridge loan from Citi (22 October).
In our database: +34.14% on the day of the second-quarter results.
The read: Our Nebius study calls the September quarter the first test of the full-year range. Three more figures to look for: active power (none published since about 170 MW at December 2025), prepayments received against the $9bn target ($4.4bn by June), and the 2027 guidance management promised “later this year”.
Thursday 12 November, after the close
Cisco · ★ Guided to revenue +22%, with $7.5bn of hyperscaler AI revenue targeted for the year
Guide (Q4 release, 12 August). Revenue $18.0–18.2bn, +21.6% at the midpoint (our arithmetic); non-GAAP gross margin 65–66%; non-GAAP operating margin 35.5–36.5%; non-GAAP EPS $1.32–1.34 (GAAP $1.08–1.10). Fiscal 2027: revenue $72.2–73.4bn, non-GAAP EPS $5.05–5.11, and about $7.5bn of AI-infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers, against about $4bn in fiscal 2026. Last quarter: revenue $17,252m (+18%); networking $9,791m (+28%); services flat; non-GAAP gross margin 66.3%, against 68.4% a year earlier; product orders +35%; remaining performance obligations $46.7bn (+7%); inventories $5.69bn, against $3.16bn. Since then: one board appointment; no guidance change.
Last print in our database: −8.40%; average earnings-day move ±5.5% over the 12 prints before that.
The read: Our Cisco study argues that fiscal 2026’s record was a hardware year: revenue rose 11.8% while services, deferred revenue and remaining performance obligations slowed, and inventories rose 80%. The quarter shows whether the recurring lines move with a 22% revenue guide; the 65–66% margin guide shows what the AI mix costs.
Applied Materials · ★ Guided to revenue +51% and non-GAAP EPS +85% to close a record year
Guide (Q3 release, 13 August). Revenue $10.25bn ± $0.5bn, +50.7% at the midpoint against $6,800m a year earlier; non-GAAP EPS $4.02 ± $0.20, +85% against $2.17 (our arithmetic). The release gives no gross-margin or segment guide. At the midpoint the fiscal year comes to about $34.3bn, +20.9% (our arithmetic). Last quarter: record revenue of $9,115m (+25%); non-GAAP gross margin 50.4%; Semiconductor Systems $7,040m, with DRAM 26% of it (22% a year earlier); China 28% of revenue, down from 35%. Since then: an agreement to raise its stake in BE Semiconductor (Besi) to about 20%, subject to US antitrust clearance (26 October).
Last print in our database: −5.12%; average earnings-day move ±5.4% over the 12 prints before that.
The read: Our Applied Materials study is about disclosure: the segment basis has changed four times in eight years, and this quarter closes the first full year on the latest one. The guide tests a gross margin above 50% while China falls toward a quarter of revenue.
Cerebras Systems · ★ Guided to about $215m of core revenue, +58%, two weeks after a short seller questioned its wafer life
Guide (Q2 release, 12 August; “core” is the company’s non-GAAP basis). Core revenue about $214–216m, +58% on the year and +2.4% on the quarter (our arithmetic); core gross margin 38–40%; core operating margin −25% to −23%. Full year, raised: core revenue $880–890m, which needs about 25% sequential growth in the fourth quarter (our arithmetic). Last quarter: GAAP revenue $180.1m; core revenue $209.9m after adding back $44.3m of customer-warrant amortisation; remaining performance obligations $25.4bn. Since then: a 165 MW data centre in Mikkeli, Finland (1 September); Oracle plans to offer Cerebras inference in 2027, with no terms (27 October); Culper Research disclosed a short position and alleged a wafer life of 1.4–2.5 years (28 October, press), and the chief executive replied that fewer than 0.5% of CS-3 wafers deployed since 2024 have been decommissioned (5 November).
Last print in our database: −11.85%; its only earlier earnings day moved 19.6%.
The read: Our Cerebras study is built on the gap between GAAP and core revenue: another $1.1bn of warrant amortisation comes off revenue through October 2031. The 10-Q is the first filing since the short report; the useful lives on $403.6m of data-centre equipment, moved from 1.5–3 years to 3–5, are the figures to check.
Themes this week
The AI clouds report on what the borrowing bought. Since their last results CoreWeave has sold $4.2bn of convertible notes and opened a programme for up to 35m shares, Nebius has sold $5.75bn of convertibles and taken a $3.5bn secured bridge from Citi, and SoftBank has funded its last $10bn for OpenAI with notes paying up to 9.75%. CoreWeave’s own guide has interest at 3.3–4.7 times adjusted operating income; Nebius’s full-year range needs a 73–108% step in quarterly revenue (our arithmetic). These are the first prints since the money was raised.
Microsoft and the neoclouds. CNBC reported on 6 November that Microsoft plans to use fewer outside cloud providers. Neither CoreWeave nor Nebius has commented; Tuesday’s and Thursday’s calls are the first chance for them to answer, and CoreWeave’s largest customer was 67% of its 2025 revenue.
The suppliers guided to their fastest growth. Cisco guided to revenue +22% and about $7.5bn of hyperscaler AI revenue in fiscal 2027; Applied Materials to +51%; Infineon delivered +19% overnight and guided fiscal 2027 to more than 20%. Each is a step up from last quarter’s growth (+18%, +25% and +13%). Cisco’s gross-margin guide of 65–66% is below the 68.4% of a year earlier, the cost of that hardware mix.
New bases make the comparisons harder. Infineon moves to three new segments for fiscal 2027; Applied Materials closes the first full year on its fourth segment basis in eight years; Cerebras guides on a “core” basis that adds back customer-warrant costs; Constellation’s growth this quarter is almost all Calpine, bought in January.
Sources
- Monday’s results: Constellation Energy (8-K, 9 Nov, with slides and the 10-Q), and the evening’s releases from The Trade Desk, Rocket Lab and Zeta Global (8-Ks, 9 Nov).
- Overnight results: Infineon’s Q4 FY26 analyst-call statement and SoftBank Group’s Q2 FY2026 earnings presentation and financial report (10 Nov).
- Guidance and last-quarter results, from each company’s previous earnings release: Constellation, Rocket Lab, Zeta Global, The Trade Desk, CoreWeave (guidance from its 11 August outlook presentation and call), Nebius (6-K shareholder letter; the full-year range first in the Q1 letter), Cisco, Applied Materials, Cerebras, Infineon (Q3 release, 5 Aug, including its financial calendar) and the SoftBank Group Q1 presentation.
- Events since those releases, from 8-Ks, 6-Ks and company releases: Rocket Lab share sale and Iridium financing (15 Sep) and Neutron timing (14 Oct); The Trade Desk workforce reduction (3 Sep); CoreWeave equity programme, investor deck and convertible notes (17–22 Sep); Nebius convertible notes (24 Aug), Palantir (8 Sep) and bridge facility (22 Oct); Applied Materials Besi stake (26 Oct); Cerebras–Oracle (27 Oct) and the chief executive’s reply on wafer life (5 Nov); Infineon’s new segments and Villach GaN fab (27 Oct); SoftBank Group bridge prepayment, senior notes, OpenAI payment and ABB Robotics notice (6 Nov).
- Report dates and call times: each company’s own announcement, 2 Oct–3 Nov 2026 (SoftBank’s IR calendar; Infineon’s preliminary calendar and Börse Express for its 07:30 CET time); Nasdaq earnings calendar for before-open and after-close timing, pulled 9 Nov.
- Press: CNBC on Microsoft and outside cloud providers (6 Nov); Culper Research’s short position in Cerebras (28 Oct), as reported; Mikkeli data-centre details from DatacenterDynamics.
- Our studies: CoreWeave (operating income and interest under the Q3 guide; customer concentration), Nebius (second-half arithmetic), Cerebras (GAAP and core revenue; equipment lives), Cisco (recurring metrics in fiscal 2026), Applied Materials (segment bases), Infineon (margin against the 2023 peak), SoftBank Group (net asset value and loan-to-value), Constellation Energy (policy revenue and nuclear output), Zeta Global and The Trade Desk.
- Share prices, opening gaps, day moves, after-hours moves, index levels, earnings-day history and averages: CoreValue price database (Yahoo Finance bars, stored and computed by CoreValue). US closes to Monday 9 November; after-hours trades to 20:00 ET; Tuesday pre-market trades to 09:12 ET; history against each company’s previous 12 earnings days (fewer for recent listings).
CoreValue Research · Earnings Radar, prepared Monday 9 November 2026, before Tuesday’s open, after six of this week’s names had reported. Results and guidance come from company filings and releases; every share-price move is from the CoreValue price database. Broker research and Tegus/AlphaSense content were excluded under their terms. Not investment advice.
