The one thing
Two ends of the same supply chain reported this morning, and they disagree about money. At 01:00 ET ASML said third-quarter sales were a record €11.66bn at a record 57.5% gross margin, raised the 2026 guide to €44–45bn, guided the fourth quarter to €14.2–15.2bn, and wrote that “supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers,” with “some customers expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030” (Christophe Fouquet, company release). The stock went nowhere: Amsterdam −0.56% at €1,501 at the US open after a 2% early gain. At the other end, CoreWeave’s $1.25bn 9.625% unsecured notes due 2032 touched a 15% yield on Tuesday and closed at 14.5%, a record (chart circulated by Chamath Palihapitiya, reported by Benzinga; the FT separately reported “almost 15%”); Elon Musk replied “Yikes.” CRWV opened −13.3% at $67.44 this morning, Nebius −8.1%, IREN −7.4%, Oracle −6.2%, giving back all of Tuesday’s +4.2%.
Between them sat the data. September CPI printed +0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected, core +0.3% / 2.6% against 0.2% / 2.5% (CNBC, CBS; FactSet consensus); gasoline +9.1% in the month was more than half of it. The 10-year rose to 5.31% from 5.22%. The FOMC meets 27–28 October; New York Fed president Williams has said he sees one more hike this year and none in 2027 (Saxo), and CME pricing had a December hike at 86% before the print. Hock Tan said on Monday that capital, not wafers or memory, is the constraint. The bond market agreed on Tuesday and the stock market agreed at 09:30 ET today. ASML’s order book is the demand; CoreWeave’s 14.5% is the price of financing it; the question for every model we run is which of those two numbers gives way first.
Macro. Tuesday: S&P 500 −0.02% to 7,805.45, Nasdaq −0.15% to 27,204.38, Dow −0.35% to 51,670.10; the SOX fell −1.5%, a sixth straight decline (Reuters/Globe and Mail), with Applied Materials −6.7% and Micron −3.6%. Wednesday in Asia: Kospi −0.44% to 6,008.81 after being up 2.6% intraday (sixth loss in a row, foreigners net sellers for a seventh session; Korea Times); Samsung flat at ₩232,000, SK hynix −1.66% to ₩1,419,000; Nikkei −0.05% to 67,744.29 with Kioxia −3.2% and SoftBank +0.77%; TAIEX +0.59% to 48,626 with TSMC unchanged at NT$2,490 ahead of tomorrow’s results. Europe: DAX +0.6%, CAC +0.5% (AP). At the open: S&P −0.3%, Nasdaq −0.4%, Dow +0.3%, SOX −1.6%; Bank of America −7.5% on a $1.2bn AML settlement charge and an adjusted miss, Morgan Stanley −2.2% despite a beat. Brent $105.91, WTI $95.56 (+1.5%) on new Houthi strikes on Aramco and tanker attacks in Hormuz (Saxo). Beige Book 14:00 ET. TSMC reports tomorrow at 02:00 ET.
Sector pulse: covered names with material news or a >5% move
Seventeen of 100 listed names. Company news: ASML (results), Applied Materials (investor breakfast, −6.7%), CoreWeave (bonds), Oracle (Project Jupiter power proposals), Amazon (Decart report), Microsoft (record close), Bloom (named in Oracle’s filing), Dell and HPE (Barclays downgrade), Apple (post-event close). Counted for moves of more than 5% at the open with no disclosure: Cerebras, Nebius, IREN, TeraWulf, DigitalOcean, Applied Digital, Palo Alto. Not counted: IonQ −5.4% at the open (quantum, no catalyst), Micron −3.6% Tuesday, the optical five (−1–3% Tuesday, −3% at the open), Vistra −4.5%, SK hynix ADR −3.4%.
Overnight & last session
Semis & equipment
ASML Q3: record €11.66bn sales, 57.5% gross margin, FY guide raised to €44–45bn; “supply as currently planned for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet demand”; shares flat
Total net sales €11,662m (guide €11.0–12.0bn; Q2 €9,326m), of which Installed Base Management €3,289m, €400m above what the company guided (CFO Roger Dassen, per the Investing.com transcript). Gross margin 57.5% against a 55–57% guide and 54.0% in Q2. Net income €4,960m and EPS €12.95; the quarter includes a one-time ~€500m revaluation gain on the first tranche of its Mistral investment (transcript), so the underlying figure is nearer €4.5bn. New systems 113 (Q2: 86), used 8. Cash and short-term investments €12.7bn. Q4 guide: sales €14.2–15.2bn, gross margin ~57%. FY2026: €44–45bn (was €43–45bn), gross margin ~56% (was 54–56%). Capacity: the plan was +30% in low-NA EUV and DUV immersion for 2027 with a further +30% under study for 2028; ASML now says that will not meet demand and it is “investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30%.” On the call: about 65 EUV systems planned for 2026, >50% above 2025; EUV revenue to grow >45% in 2026; China ~20% of 2026 business; pricing benefits partly in 2027 and fully from 2028. Interim dividend €1.88, payable 4 November; ~€4.1bn bought back in the quarter. No bookings or backlog figure: ASML stopped quarterly bookings after 2025 and reports backlog annually; the CEO says the order book “continues to increase quarter on quarter.” Reaction: Amsterdam +2% early (RTT, €1,538), −0.56% at €1,501.20 by 09:42 ET; ADR +0.6% at $1,727.91. GuruFocus calls the €11.66bn a narrow miss against a €11.72bn consensus; Investing.com calls the dollar figure a 0.4% beat.
The read: For our ASML study, the number to carry is not the beat but the shape of the guide: Q4 at €14.2–15.2bn is a €3bn step up in one quarter, and the midpoint implies 2026 lands at the top of the new range. The problem is auditability. With bookings gone and backlog annual, “orders for 2029 and 2030” is a sentence, not a number; the hard evidence will be the contract-liability (customer down-payment) line in the Q3 statements, which we should pull from the 6-K. For TSMC tomorrow and Samsung on 29 October, ASML’s shortfall is a cost: it says “pricing benefits” arrive in 2027–28, which is tool inflation for the foundries and a direct input to the 2027 capex debate (UBS $90bn, BofA $80–85bn, Goldman $78bn for TSMC). A flat stock on a record quarter with a raised guide says the market already assumed the demand and is only pricing the cost of money.
Applied Materials −6.7% after an investor breakfast with 2030 margin targets and no revenue target; equipment sold off for a sixth day
A day after unveiling the $5bn EPIC Center, Applied held an investor breakfast at which CFO Brice Hill set 2030 targets: adjusted gross margin ~54% (48.8% in FY2025), adjusted operating margin ~40% (30.2%), +2 points of WFE share, and services revenue “over” $12bn (about $6.4bn in FY2025). It gave no 2030 revenue figure (Motley Fool). AMAT closed −6.69% at $464.24 after trading as low as $452.81; Lam −2.7% to $301.11, KLA −3.2% to $184.00 (24/7 Wall St. had both −4% intraday). Evercore ISI kept Outperform and $700. The SOX fell a sixth straight session.
The read: For our Applied Materials, Lam and KLA studies, a margin target without a revenue target is a mix statement: services from $6.4bn to >$12bn by 2030 is a ~13% CAGR, and 54% gross margin needs that mix. The market read the missing revenue line as a refusal to underwrite WFE growth on the day ASML said it cannot meet demand. Those two cannot both be right for long. Lam reports a week today (21 Oct, call 17:00 ET); that is where the CY2027 WFE number first gets said out loud.
Rest of the group, Tuesday. Micron −3.62% to $953.19 on day two of the CXMT story (CNBC); Sandisk −0.34% to $1,482.33 after Monday’s −6%; Western Digital −1.6% to $380.71; SK hynix ADR −3.2% to $157.06. Arm +0.06%, Marvell +1.08% to $268.73, Broadcom +0.73% to $357.31, Nvidia +0.97% to $228.52, AMD +1.9% to $605.53; Intel +1.4%. Cerebras +1.7% to $149.09, still below the $185 IPO. Wednesday in Asia the memory names steadied (Samsung flat, SK hynix −1.66%, MediaTek −1.10% to NT$4,475, Infineon flat at €55.92). At the open: AMD −3.1%, Arm −3.1%, Marvell −3.3%, Broadcom −2.4%, Nvidia −1.3%, Cerebras −5.0%, IonQ −5.4%. TSMC reports tomorrow 02:00 ET (14:00 Taipei): guide $44.6–45.8bn, gross margin 65–67% (consensus ~66.5%; LSEG net profit NT$746bn, +65%), 2026 capex $60–64bn; the 2027 capex question is the one that matters.
Networking & optical
No company news; day two of the sell-off was shallower. Tuesday: Ciena −1.1% to $400.40, Lumentum −0.7% to $987.99, Coherent +0.7% to $289.98, Credo −1.3% to $198.31 (−6% intraday), Astera +0.4% to $325.41; Arista −3.0% to $204.52, Cisco −0.2%. At the open the group is off 3–3.5% again (Lumentum −3.4%, Ciena −3.3%, Astera −3.1%). The duration argument from yesterday stands: these are the longest-dated earnings in the chain and the 10-year just made a new high.
Hyperscalers & neoclouds
CoreWeave’s 2032 bonds close at 14.5% after touching 15%; stock opens −13% at $67; co-founder tells the FT insurers’ capital “is unlimited”
The yield on CoreWeave’s $1.25bn of 9.625% senior unsecured notes due 15 July 2032, sold in June, touched 15% on Tuesday and ended at 14.5%, a closing high (Benzinga, from a chart posted by Chamath Palihapitiya under a “private credit bubble” warning; Musk: “Yikes”). The Financial Times reported Wednesday that the unsecured bonds had sold off to almost 15%. Two weeks ago the same notes showed a yield-to-worst near 13% at a price of ~86.5 (TradingView listing). A secondary yield does not change the coupon; it changes the price of the next issue, and CoreWeave has said it is evaluating more delayed-draw term loans. In an FT interview carried by Benzinga, co-founder Brannin McBee said investment-grade ratings would open insurers’ balance sheets, whose capital “is unlimited,” that “if we stop building today, [we’d be] immensely cash-flow positive,” but “we are in a period where you have to be huge.” He also said loans backed by lower-rated customers, including AI labs, are not yet suitable for the insurance market (paraphrase; relays differ on the wording). Balance-sheet context: total debt ~$35bn at 30 June (from $21bn at end-2025), or ~$52bn including lease obligations (FT, via The Energy Mag); Q2 net interest expense $640m exceeded adjusted operating income; GAAP net loss $626m; ~17.6% of the float short (Investing.com). The September financing is still in the price: 2.875% converts due 1 April 2033, priced at $3.7bn on 18 Sep and upsized to $4.2bn with the option, and a 35m-share at-the-market programme (17 Sep; capacity, nothing sold yet); 14 October recaps describing a “new” raise are rehashing those. CRWV closed Tuesday −3.05% at $77.81 and opened at $67.44 (−13.3%), near the $60.55 52-week low. Read-across at the open: Nebius −8.1%, IREN −7.4%, TeraWulf −5.9%, DigitalOcean −5.5%, Applied Digital −5.2%, Oracle −6.2%.
The read: For our CoreWeave study this is tripwire 5 of the AI-bubble radar firing in the bond market before the equity market: 14.5% on an unsecured note is a refinancing wall, not a quote. The arithmetic to publish is simple: capex guide $35–39bn this year, contracts averaging ~3 years, a 5-year term loan, and a marginal unsecured cost now above the gross yield on the GPUs. McBee’s “unlimited” insurance capital requires an investment-grade rating that the bond market is pricing further away, not closer. For Nebius and IREN the read-across is the funding model, not the customer list; IREN’s reported Anthropic contract (The Information, Monday; unconfirmed by either side) does not change what it pays for GPUs. For Oracle, −6% at the open on no news of its own is the market treating a BBB- balance sheet with $90–95bn of FY27 capex as the same trade.
Oracle proposes $100m to El Paso Electric and up to $165m of bill credits for Project Jupiter; reaffirms Bloom microgrid; stock +4.2% Tuesday, −6% at the open
Oracle filed proposals with New Mexico regulators for its Project Jupiter campus (Oracle release; StockTwits, Border Report). Under a proposed Energy Service Agreement it would pay El Paso Electric $10m a year for 10 years, owed even if usage falls below contracted levels, for late-stage construction, commissioning and emergency backup power. Separately it proposes up to $55m a year for up to three years in bill credits for EPE’s New Mexico residential and small-business customers from 2027, so up to $165m; Oracle’s headline adds them to “at least $155m.” Oracle also urged FERC to expedite the ~17.8-mile Green Chile gas pipeline feeding the site (StockTwits; not in every copy of the release) and pledged $1m to the Community Foundation of Southern New Mexico for Santa Teresa flood relief (KFOX). “There is no change to our plan”: the primary supply remains Bloom Energy’s fuel-cell microgrid. Earlier the same day Marvell, Microsoft and Oracle formed an Open Compute Project working group on hardware security modules. ORCL closed +4.23% at $143.20 (range $135.55–144.18) on volume 18% below average, then opened −6.15% at $134.39 on Wednesday. Mizuho maintained Buy, $320 (14 Oct).
The read: For our Oracle study, Jupiter is the clearest case of what a self-powered campus costs in community money: $10m a year of take-or-pay grid power plus up to $165m of credits to keep a regulator onside, on top of the Bloom microgrid. For the Bloom Energy study (results 22 October) the reaffirmation is worth a line because the EPE agreement is backup, not replacement: Bloom stays the primary source. The stock round-trip, +4% on the filing and −6% on CoreWeave’s bonds, is the point: Oracle’s equity now trades on the neocloud’s cost of capital, not on its own disclosures.
Amazon reportedly in talks to pay ~$7bn for Decart, a 100-person inference-optimisation and generative-video startup that claims Trainium3 runs its models at half the cost of GPUs
Amazon is reportedly in talks to buy Decart for about $7bn; both companies declined to comment and no term sheet, split between the video and optimisation businesses, or filing has been disclosed (first reported by the Wall Street Journal on Sunday 12 October; relayed by 24/7 Wall St.). Decart has ~100 employees and undisclosed revenue (outside estimate: tens of millions). Its May 2026 $300m round, led by Radical Ventures, valued it at just under $4bn (WSJ, Globes; the $3.1bn figure in some recaps is the August 2025 round); Anthropic reportedly looked at ~$6bn in August and walked away after diligence in September. Nvidia is an investor. Amazon became a strategic customer in May, when CEO Dean Leitersdorf said Trainium3 runs Decart’s models at half the cost of GPUs. The Decart Optimization Stack runs models across Nvidia GPUs, Google TPUs and Trainium without rebuilding per chip. AMZN closed −0.4% at $258.58.
The read: For our Amazon study, $7bn for a company Anthropic priced at $6bn a month earlier is a bid for the software that makes Trainium usable by people who did not write their models for it; that is the piece of the ~$220bn capex story that decides whether the chips get rented. It is a report, not a deal. Note the pattern with Microsoft’s Maia 300 on Monday: every hyperscaler is buying or building the layer between its own silicon and the customer’s code.
Also. Microsoft closed at a record +0.43% $543.45, its first since October 2025 (Bloomberg); Alphabet +0.30% to $353.78 and +1.1% at the open after Gemini 4 Argon went globally available on Tuesday (DeepMind post; Google AI Pro/Ultra, API paid tier). IREN’s reported multi-year Anthropic contract (The Information, Monday) remains unconfirmed by either company; some outlets wrongly say IREN “announced” it. Tuesday closes: Nebius −1.5% $206.86, IREN flat $34.80, Applied Digital −3.5% $22.44, TeraWulf −1.2% $13.21, DigitalOcean −2.4% $128.21, Cloudflare −0.9% $347.70, Alibaba flat. SoftBank rebounded +0.77% to ¥5,351 in Tokyo.
Power & data-centre infrastructure
One disclosure, by proxy: Oracle’s filing reaffirms Bloom as Project Jupiter’s primary supply (above); Bloom closed +0.45% at $263.45 and is −2.6% at the open; results 22 October after the close (company-confirmed). Tuesday: Vistra +2.7% to $162.36 (24/7 Wall St. relays an analyst “+90% within a year” call; no primary note found), Constellation +0.65% $295.79, GE Vernova +0.7% $1,004.04 back above $1,000, Eaton +0.4% $428.31, Vertiv −0.9% $237.29, AEP +1.1% $125.65. At the open the whole group is lower with yields: Vistra −4.5%, Constellation −3.0%, GE Vernova −2.6%; the regulated three (NextEra, Dominion, AEP) are flat. Vertiv confirmed Q3 for 28 October pre-market (call 11:00 ET).
SaaS & enterprise software
No company news. Tuesday: Salesforce +1.75% to $238.01 (day two of the BofA upgrade), ServiceNow −1.2% $138.61, Palo Alto −1.7% $397.03, Intuit −1.5%, Snowflake −0.7%, Palantir −0.2% $208.67. At the open Palo Alto is −5.0% and CrowdStrike −3.3% with no disclosure we can find (Phillip Securities’ Monday downgrade to Neutral, $346, is the last note); ServiceNow +2.4%, Intuit +2.0%. Yesterday’s 24/7 Wall St. line that ServiceNow and Salesforce were “sliding 5%” on Tuesday is not borne out by the closes.
Ads & adtech
No company news. Meta +2.63% to $762.50 on day two of Muse Wonder (intraday high $771.27, below the $779.82 record), −1.5% at the open; Q3 is Wed 21 Oct after the close, call 16:30 ET (company release, 12 Oct; aggregators still showing 28 Oct are stale). Netflix −0.2% to $70.46 six days before its print; AppLovin +0.5%, Reddit −2.9%, Trade Desk +1.9%, Roku flat, Zeta +0.9%.
Consumer platforms & commerce
No company news. Shopify −1.5% to $176.52 after Monday’s record close (Cantor target $158, Neutral; next print 3 Nov). Airbnb +1.3%, Walmart −0.7% and +1.8% at the open, Marriott +0.6%, MercadoLibre −0.9%, PDD +1.3%, DoorDash −0.6%, Costco −0.5%, Uber −0.3%, Booking −0.6%.
Hardware & devices
Barclays cuts Dell, HPE and NetApp to Equal Weight: “we don’t see a meaningful AI inflection yet”; Dell −7%, HPE −6% at the open
Tim Long moved all three from Overweight to Equal Weight, with HPE’s target to $77 from $83, Dell’s to $574 from $603 and NetApp’s unchanged at $219, citing a more cautious stance on hardware “more aligned with enterprise spending,” high valuations and commodity costs that have lifted revenue (Asianet, StockTwits). Pre-market the stocks were off 3–4%; at the open Dell is −7.3% at $530.49, HPE −6.0% at $64.66, Super Micro −4.6%. Dell had closed Tuesday −0.7% at $572.47. Note that a Morgan Stanley “memory supercycle” note circulating on Wednesday (Dell to Underweight, $110) is from November 2025, not today.
The read: For our Dell study, a one-notch downgrade does not normally cost 7%; the size of the move says the market is marking the AI-server margin down on the same day memory costs are the story across the chain. Dell’s own numbers (FQ2’27 AI orders $60.9bn, backlog $95bn, FY27 revenue ~$192bn) are not disputed by Barclays; the dispute is what gross margin that backlog ships at when DRAM contract prices are rising. That is a question our Micron and SK hynix models can answer from the other side.
Also. Apple closed +0.09% at $341.27 on event day after a record intraday high of $348.15, and is +1.4% at the open; Gerber Kawasaki’s Ross Gerber on HomeView: “Another screen?” CNBC’s framing is that none of Tuesday’s products moves the iPhone question. Super Micro closed −2.3% at $39.07.
Space & mobility
No company news. SpaceX −4.21% to $156.54 on Tuesday as Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter cut AST SpaceMobile to Neutral, citing SpaceX’s direct-to-cell push limiting launch availability and pressuring pricing for carrier-aligned providers; Rocket Lab −2.3% to $64.22. Tesla −0.74% to $375.23, −2.1% at the open; BNP Paribas has flagged spending above $25bn (per Gotrade’s summary). Roadster reveal tomorrow, Thu 15 Oct, livestream 20:55 ET (19:55 CT) near Waco, Texas: a reveal, with production reported for 2027–28. Q3 results Wed 21 Oct.
Private labs
OpenAI: FBI arrests an engineer over a recording device hidden in an executive conference room; Anthropic asks the full D.C. Circuit to rehear its Pentagon blacklist case; investor day today in San Francisco
OpenAI. The Justice Department said Abdulrahman Alfozan, 35, a Saudi engineer employed since July 2025, was arrested on 9 October and charged with using or endeavouring to use a device to intercept oral communications (maximum five years and $250,000). Prosecutors say a USB device wrapped in toilet paper was placed inside a television in an executive conference room used for discussions of research, product plans and business opportunities; a second device was found in his bag. OpenAI’s security team found it in late September, used its own models to trace it, referred it to the FBI and terminated him; it says it has “no indications” he accessed or removed model weights, source code or customer data. Court hearing 19 October (France 24, Washington Post, NBC). Anthropic. On Tuesday it petitioned the D.C. Circuit for rehearing of the 25 September 2–1 decision upholding the Department of War’s supply-chain-risk designation, arguing the panel “misinterpreted and transformed a federal law” aimed at hostile foreign actors into one reaching every contractor, and acted “without any pre-designation process”; it says the designation has cost it billions in lost business (Reuters). Its pre-IPO investor day is today in San Francisco (Bloomberg, 1 Oct; the company declined to comment); no disclosures had surfaced by the edition time. Reported target: $1.8–2tn, marketing from the week of 9 November, trading before Thanksgiving; S-1 still not public on EDGAR. Anthropic’s own report of “unintended model actions” by Claude during evaluations was also circulating; we have not seen the primary document.
The read: For our OpenAI study the bugging case is a line in the security section, with one fact worth keeping: OpenAI says it used its own models to find the device and the person. For the Anthropic study, today is the day the private valuation meets a room of public-market buyers while CoreWeave’s bonds yield 14.5%, Meta prices Muse Wonder at Opus parity, and the D.C. Circuit designation is unresolved. The question to put in print is what growth rate a $1.8–2tn ask requires from a ~$65bn run-rate (July, partner sales included) and what the $60bn Broadcom-backed chip-lease financing (FT) costs if credit reprices the way CoreWeave’s just did.
Full-year capex guidance across the build-out
| Company | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Amazon AMZN · CY2026 | ~$220bn |
| Alphabet GOOGL · CY2026 | $195–205bn |
| Microsoft MSFT · CY2026 | ~$175bn |
| Meta META · CY2026 | $130–145bn |
| Oracle ORCL · FY2027 | $90–95bn |
| TSMC TSM · CY2026 | $60–64bn |
| Micron MU · FY27, net, implied | >$50bn |
| CoreWeave CRWV · CY2026 | $35–39bn |
| Intel INTC · CY2026, gross | >$20bn |
Where each name stands
This is a standing table. Last-print dates and key figures change only when a name discloses something; otherwise they are carried forward. New today marks rows with company news since Tuesday’s brief. US prices are Tuesday 13 October closes from Yahoo Finance chart data; Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo and Amsterdam prices are Wednesday 14 October (Amsterdam and Frankfurt intraday at 09:42 ET). Where we have no figure, the cell is blank.
| Name | Last print | Key figures from it |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | ||
| NVDA | 13 Oct · IDC China share | IDC (via Reuters): 34% of China’s data-centre AI accelerators in 1H26; shipments 678k, −44% y/y; Huawei 572k (28%); non-GPU accelerators (1.016m) outshipped GPUs (991k). Decart (Amazon target) is an Nvidia portfolio company. FQ2’27 rev $96.2bn +106%; FQ3 guide $108.0bn ±2%. FQ3 results est. 17 Nov. Closed 13 Oct $228.52, +0.97% |
| AVGO | 12 Oct · Hock Tan, Singapore | Hock Tan (DBS Asia Future Forward): “a lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in”; “almost like they are in a casino”; capital “the biggest constraint” (Bloomberg via Benzinga). FT: $60bn financing package for Anthropic’s Google-chip lease, $42bn senior loans backed by Broadcom’s rating. Exchange offer expires 19 Oct. FQ3’26 rev $29.591bn +85.5%; FQ4 guide ~$34.8bn. Closed 13 Oct $357.31, +0.73% |
| AMD | 6 Oct · record close | Su: supply to “substantially increase” in 2027; Citi target $800. All-stock World Labs deal ~$8.2bn. Call only: FY2027 data-centre revenue ~$70bn. Q3 on 3 Nov. Closed 13 Oct $605.53, +1.90% |
| QCOM | 5 Oct · Huawei licence | First 5G cross-licence with Huawei; terms undisclosed. QTL $1.28bn last quarter. Closed 13 Oct $176.86, +1.39% |
| MU | 13 Oct · CXMT day two | −3.62% on day two of CXMT’s 4F² server-DRAM claim (CNBC); −7.4% over two sessions. Taoyuan union rally 19 Oct. FQ4’26: rev $54.23bn +379%; non-GAAP GM 87.0%; EPS $33.42. FQ1 guide $61.5bn ±$1.5bn. 1H FY27 capex ~$25bn, 2H higher. Closed 13 Oct $953.19, −3.62% |
| INTC | 12 Oct · Lip-Bu Tan, Singapore | “Capital and the cost of capital.” Susquehanna: Q3 CPU model share −3.9pts to 68.1%. Q2’26 rev $16.13bn +25.4%; 2026 capex >$20bn gross. Q3 Thu 29 Oct after the close, call 17:00 ET (company release). Closed 13 Oct $102.81, +1.44% |
| TXN | 17 Sep · 8-K | Dividend $1.42 → $1.52 (+7%). Q3 Wed 21 Oct, call 16:30 ET. Closed 13 Oct $287.85, +2.17% |
| MRVL | 13 Oct · OCP working group | New today. Open Compute Project hardware-security-module working group with Microsoft and Oracle (Oracle release). Investor day (6 Oct): FY2028 rev ~$20bn; FY2031 rev $70–90bn, EPS >$30. FQ3 guide ~$3.15bn. Closed 13 Oct $268.73, +1.08% |
| AMAT | 13 Oct · investor breakfast | New today. 2030 targets (CFO Brice Hill): adj. gross margin ~54% (FY25 48.8%), adj. operating margin ~40% (30.2%), +2pts WFE share, services >$12bn (FY25 ~$6.4bn); no 2030 revenue target. $5bn EPIC Center opened 12 Oct. Evercore Outperform, $700. Closed 13 Oct $464.24, −6.69% |
| KLAC | 1 Oct · date set | FQ1’27 Wed 28 Oct after the close, call 17:00 ET (company release). Annual meeting 4 Nov. Call only: CY2026 WFE mid-$150bns. Closed 13 Oct $184.00, −3.22% |
| LRCX | 16 Sep · India plan | INR 10,000 crore India plant. Call only: CY2026 WFE “low $150bns”. FQ1 Wed 21 Oct after the close, call 17:00 ET (aggregators; no company notice found). Closed 13 Oct $301.11, −2.73% |
| ASML | 14 Oct · Q3 results | New today. Sales €11,662m (record; guide €11.0–12.0bn), IBM €3,289m, GM 57.5% (record), net income €4,960m incl. ~€500m Mistral revaluation, EPS €12.95; 113 new systems. Q4 guide €14.2–15.2bn, GM ~57%; FY26 €44–45bn, GM ~56%. 2027–28 supply “will not fully meet demand”; studying 2028 capacity beyond +30%. No bookings/backlog figure. Dividend €1.88 (4 Nov). ASML.AS €1,501.20 (−0.56%) at 09:42 ET. ADR: Closed 13 Oct $1,717.76, −1.86% |
| ARM | 18–21 Sep · SoftBank / Form 4 | Steadied Tuesday after −15.6% over five sessions; no company news. Closed 13 Oct $255.39, +0.06% |
| TSM | 12 Oct · Microsoft Maia 300 on N2P | Sep NT$511,857m +54.6% y/y; 3Q26 ~NT$1.49tn vs guide $44.6–45.8bn, GM 65–67% (consensus ~66.5%; LSEG net profit NT$746bn); 2026 capex $60–64bn; sell-side 2027 capex $78–90bn. ASML: tool pricing rises 2027–28. 3Q26 results Thu 15 Oct, 02:00 ET. 2330.TW NT$2,490 (unch.) on 14 Oct. ADR: Closed 13 Oct $445.12, +0.17% |
| CDNS | −4.08% Tuesday, no company news found. Closed 13 Oct $334.20, −4.08% | |
| SNPS | 1 Oct · AWS licence | AWS multi-year licence >$1bn. FY27 guide $11.10–11.20bn. Closed 13 Oct $494.51, −1.59% |
| ADI | Closed 13 Oct $414.70, +2.08% | |
| NXPI | Closed 13 Oct $226.32, +0.49% | |
| ON | Closed 13 Oct $76.69, +0.91% | |
| IFNNY | Home listing IFX.DE; FY ends Sep; results 10 Nov (per our study notes). IFX.DE €55.92 (−0.14%) at 09:42 ET, Wed 14 Oct; Tue close €56.00. | |
| MPWR | Closed 13 Oct $1,319.55, +0.02% | |
| 2454.TW | 8 Oct · Sep sales | Sep NT$55,399m, +1.97% y/y; 3Q26 ~NT$168.1bn (our sum) vs guide NT$152.2–159.8bn. Results ~30 Oct. Closed 14 Oct NT$4,475, −1.10% |
| 005930.KS | 13 Oct · “Black Tuesday” | Flat on Wednesday after −7.39% Tuesday; −16% from ₩276,000 on 2 Oct. Prelim 3Q26 op. profit KRW 107.4tn; revenue KRW 195tn. Targets sub-10nm 4F² DRAM by 2028. Call 29 Oct (Korea Times). Closed 14 Oct ₩232,000, 0.00% |
| SKHY | 13 Oct · “Black Tuesday” | 000660.KS −1.66% Wednesday to ₩1,419,000 after −10.09% Tuesday (Korea Times, TradingKey). CXMT: 4F² DDR5 RDIMM for servers by end-2026. Results 27 Oct (Korea Times; Quartr: 28 Oct). US listing: Closed 13 Oct $157.06, −3.19% |
| SNDK | 12 Oct · memory sell-off | Steadied Tuesday after Monday’s −5.97% (NAND name on a DRAM story). Closed 13 Oct $1,482.33, −0.34% |
| WDC | 12 Oct · memory sell-off | Closed 13 Oct $380.71, −1.61% |
| IONQ | 12 Oct · session | −9.07% Monday, −4.25% Tuesday, −5.4% at the open; no company news found. Closed 13 Oct $34.73, −4.25% |
| CBRS | 12 Oct · session | Below the $185 IPO price; −5.0% at the open. Lost an OpenAI workload to Nvidia (CNBC, 2 Oct). Closed 13 Oct $149.09, +1.68% |
| Networking & optical | ||
| CSCO | 9 Sep | Middle East AI partnership with AMD reported. Closed 13 Oct $115.07, −0.23% |
| ANET | Closed 13 Oct $204.52, −3.02% | |
| CIEN | 12 Oct · optical sell-off | −9.95% Monday on no company news; −1.1% Tuesday. FQ3 rev $1.67bn; FY guide $6.42bn ±$50m. Closed 13 Oct $400.40, −1.14% |
| COHR | 12 Oct · optical sell-off | Bernstein Outperform, $350 (1 Oct). Results early Nov (not yet announced). Closed 13 Oct $289.98, +0.68% |
| LITE | 12 Oct · optical sell-off | CEO (9 Oct): sold out through early 2029. Current-quarter guide $1.225–1.275bn. Closed 13 Oct $987.99, −0.75% |
| CRDO | 12 Oct · optical sell-off | −6% intraday Tuesday, recovered to −1.3%. Closed 13 Oct $198.31, −1.26% |
| ALAB | 12 Oct · optical sell-off | First gain in five sessions. Northland to Market Perform (8 Oct); Aries 7 launched. Results 3 Nov. Closed 13 Oct $325.41, +0.40% |
| Hyperscalers & neoclouds | ||
| AMZN | 11–13 Oct · Decart report | New today. Reportedly in talks to buy Decart for ~$7bn (WSJ, 12 Oct; both declined to comment); May round just under $4bn; Anthropic walked away at ~$6bn in September; Trainium3 “half the cost of GPUs” (Decart CEO). Q2’26 net sales $200.6bn +20%, AWS $42.2bn +37%. 2026 capex ~$220bn. Q3 est. 29 Oct (unconfirmed). Closed 13 Oct $258.58, −0.37% |
| MSFT | 13 Oct · record close | New today. Record close $543.45, first since Oct 2025 (Bloomberg); OCP HSM working group with Marvell and Oracle. Maia 300 (12 Oct): primary inference chip from 2027, TSMC N2P, HBM4. FY2026 revenue >$331bn +18%; Azure >$100bn +41%. CY2026 capex ~$175bn. FQ1’27 Wed 28 Oct after the close (confirmed). Closed 13 Oct $543.45, +0.43% |
| GOOGL | 13 Oct · Gemini 4 Argon GA | New today. Gemini 4 Argon globally available (DeepMind): Gemini app and AI Mode for AI Pro/Ultra, API paid tier, 1m-token output; announced 30 Sep. 3,590 MW with Constellation (6 Oct). Q2’26 cloud +82%, FCF −$5.9bn. 2026 capex $195–205bn. Q3 Wed 28 Oct (company-announced 6 Oct, per calendars; call 16:30 ET). Closed 13 Oct $353.78, +0.30% |
| ORCL | 13 Oct · Project Jupiter proposals | New today. Proposed ESA: $10m/yr for 10 years to El Paso Electric, take-or-pay; up to $55m/yr for 3 years in NM bill credits from 2027 (“at least $155m” headline); FERC asked to expedite the 17.8-mile Green Chile pipeline; Bloom microgrid stays primary. −6.15% at the open with CoreWeave. WSJ (8 Oct): chip-lease vehicle talks with Apollo, Goldman. FQ1’27 capex $28.5bn; RPO $664bn. FY27 capex $90–95bn. Closed 13 Oct $143.20, +4.23% |
| NET | 29 Sep · Birthday Week | Public certificate authority with GlobalSign root keys. Closed 13 Oct $347.70, −0.90% |
| CRWV | 13–14 Oct · bond yield | New today. 9.625% 2032 unsecured notes ($1.25bn, June) touched 15% Tuesday, closed 14.5% (Benzinga/Palihapitiya chart; FT: “almost 15%”). McBee (FT): insurers’ capital “is unlimited” once investment-grade; “you have to be huge”; more delayed-draw loans under evaluation. Debt ~$35bn at 30 Jun. Sep: 2.875% converts due Apr 2033, $3.7bn upsized to $4.2bn, + 35m-share ATM. Q2’26 rev $2,575m +112%; backlog $104.2bn; CY2026 capex $35–39bn. Opened 14 Oct $67.44 (−13.3%). Closed 13 Oct $77.81, −3.05% |
| NBIS | 12 Oct · session | −8.1% at the open with CoreWeave; no company news. Reflection AI compute deal ~$1bn (July). Closed 13 Oct $206.86, −1.52% |
| IREN | 12 Oct · Anthropic report | The Information: multi-year cloud agreement with Anthropic, terms undisclosed; neither company has confirmed (FinanceFeeds, Reuters request unanswered). August: multi-year contract with an unnamed frontier lab. −7.4% at the open. Closed 13 Oct $34.80, 0.00% |
| APLD | −5.2% at the open. Closed 13 Oct $22.44, −3.48% | |
| WULF | −5.9% at the open. Closed 13 Oct $13.21, −1.20% | |
| DOCN | −5.5% at the open. Closed 13 Oct $128.21, −2.44% | |
| BABA | AI-related revenue RMB12.38bn, 12th straight quarter of triple-digit growth (last print). Closed 13 Oct $110.85, +0.06% | |
| SFTBY | 13 Oct · Tokyo session | 9984.T rebounded +0.77% Wednesday after −8.50% Tuesday; −38% from the June record (Invezz). OpenAI stake $64.6bn cumulative. $4.5bn high-yield bond at up to 9.75% (Sep). 9984.T closed 14 Oct ¥5,351, +0.77% |
| Power & data-centre infrastructure | ||
| GEV | 1 Oct · Evercore | Back above $1,000 Tuesday, −2.6% at the open. Backlog $176bn at Q2. Q3 28 Oct (aggregator). Closed 13 Oct $1,004.04, +0.73% |
| VRT | 14 Oct · date set | New today. Q3 Wed 28 Oct pre-market, call 11:00 ET (company release). UtilityInnovation Group, ~$1.45bn + up to $1.15bn earnout (Sep). Closed 13 Oct $237.29, −0.86% |
| CEG | 6 Oct · Google deal | Google: 890 MW new nuclear (20-yr) + 2,700 MW (15-yr); >$4.3bn CEG investment. −3.0% at the open. Closed 13 Oct $295.79, +0.65% |
| NEE | Closed 13 Oct $78.22, −0.37% | |
| D | Closed 13 Oct $62.30, −0.24% | |
| AEP | Closed 13 Oct $125.65, +1.14% | |
| BE | 13 Oct · Oracle filing | New today. Oracle: “no change to our plan,” Bloom fuel-cell microgrid remains Project Jupiter’s primary supply; EPE grid power is for construction, commissioning and backup. Q3 Thu 22 Oct after the close (company-confirmed). UBS $350; Roth $260. Closed 13 Oct $263.45, +0.45% |
| NVT | Closed 13 Oct $161.47, −0.80% | |
| VST | DOE conditional loan commitment ~$4.2bn (5 Oct). +2.7% Tuesday, −4.5% at the open. Closed 13 Oct $162.36, +2.68% | |
| ETN | Q3 3 Nov (ad-hoc-news listing). Closed 13 Oct $428.31, +0.38% | |
| EQIX | Closed 13 Oct $1,019.40, −1.28% | |
| DLR | Closed 13 Oct $178.14, −1.12% | |
| SaaS & enterprise software | ||
| CRM | 12 Oct · BofA double upgrade | Bank of America (Tal Liani): Underperform to Buy, $160 to $285. Investor day (16 Sep): FY2030 revenue >$63bn incl. Informatica. FQ3 results est. 2 Dec. Closed 13 Oct $238.01, +1.75% |
| ADBE | 22 Sep · 10-Q | Q3 rev $6.76bn; RPO ~$22.16bn; FY guide $26.576–26.626bn. Closed 13 Oct $236.28, −0.78% |
| NOW | 7 Oct · date set | Q3 Wed 28 Oct after the close, call 17:00 ET. Q2’26: subscription growth 24–25%; AI ACV $1bn. Closed 13 Oct $138.61, −1.22% |
| SNOW | 29 Sep · converts | $3.75bn 0% converts (2029, 2031). FY outlook ~$6.07bn. Closed 13 Oct $357.76, −0.72% |
| MDB | 29 Sep · investor day | 3-year framework: revenue growth >20%; FY27 guide $2.99–3.03bn. Closed 13 Oct $373.07, −2.16% |
| HUBS | Closed 13 Oct $221.28, −0.94% | |
| DDOG | 10 Sep · Wedbush | Q2’26 rev ~$1.12bn +36%. Paris Summit 15 Oct. Closed 13 Oct $283.34, −1.37% |
| WDAY | 29 Sep · restructuring | ~2.5% of staff cut; FY27 guidance reaffirmed. Closed 13 Oct $186.02, −1.18% |
| SAP | 8 Sep · press | Closed 13 Oct $219.75, +0.87% |
| PANW | 12 Oct · Phillip Securities | Downgrade to Neutral, $346 (Monday); −5.0% at the open Wednesday, no disclosure found. Q4 rev $3.41bn +34%; NGS ARR $9.10bn +63%; FY27 guide $14.10–14.20bn. Closed 13 Oct $397.03, −1.68% |
| CRWD | 14 Sep · Fal.Con | −3.3% at the open. FQ3 guide $1.523–1.529bn. Closed 13 Oct $261.21, −0.68% |
| INTU | Closed 13 Oct $301.45, −1.48% | |
| PLTR | 8 Oct · Goldman | Goldman Buy, $230; Barclays Overweight, $265 (9 Oct). Q3 est. 2 Nov. Closed 13 Oct $208.67, −0.16% |
| FTNT | Closed 13 Oct $190.76, −1.13% | |
| ROP | Closed 13 Oct $368.41, +0.30% | |
| ZS | Closed 13 Oct $228.66, +1.28% | |
| Ads & adtech | ||
| META | 12 Oct · Muse Wonder / date set | Muse Wonder and Wonder Full: API $4 / $20 per m tokens; Artificial Analysis 56 / 52 vs Opus 5.5 at 58. Q3 Wed 21 Oct after the close, call 16:30 ET (company release 12 Oct). Q2’26 rev $60.801bn +28%; 2026 capex $130–145bn. Closed 13 Oct $762.50, +2.63% |
| ZETA | 30 Sep · William Blair | Closed 13 Oct $33.80, +0.87% |
| TTD | 18 Sep · DEF 14A | Special meeting 19 Oct on option repricing. Closed 13 Oct $12.17, +1.93% |
| ROKU | 17 Sep · 425 | DOJ Second Request on $22bn Fox deal. Closed 13 Oct $152.66, −0.10% |
| NFLX | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | Q3 Tue 20 Oct, 16:01 ET (company-confirmed). Closed 13 Oct $70.46, −0.21% |
| APP | 8 Oct · lawsuit / date | Q3 on 4 Nov after the close. Closed 13 Oct $272.28, +0.52% |
| RDDT | Closed 13 Oct $155.29, −2.90% | |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | ||
| ABNB | 8 Sep · session | Q2’26 revenue $3.6bn +17%. Closed 13 Oct $165.58, +1.27% |
| BKNG | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | Closed 13 Oct $157.51, −0.58% |
| UBER | 21 Sep · NYSE CERT | Sold 29.4m Aurora shares at $6.205 (17 Sep). Q3 ~4 Nov (call 08:00 ET, reported). Closed 13 Oct $71.32, −0.25% |
| SHOP | 12 Oct · record close | Record close Monday $179.22; Cantor target $158 (Neutral), Piper OW $180. Q3 3 Nov. Closed 13 Oct $176.52, −1.51% |
| WMT | 25 Sep · CEO letter | Closed 13 Oct $112.28, −0.71% |
| MELI | 14 Sep · notes | Susquehanna $2,500. Q3 expected ~4 Nov. Closed 13 Oct $1,876.04, −0.87% |
| PDD | Closed 13 Oct $81.96, +1.29% | |
| COST | 7 Oct · Sep sales | Sep (5 wks) net sales $30.02bn +13.0%; comp ex gas/FX +7.6%. Closed 13 Oct $954.63, −0.50% |
| MAR | Closed 13 Oct $371.50, +0.60% | |
| DASH | Closed 13 Oct $193.09, −0.59% | |
| Hardware & devices | ||
| AAPL | 13 Oct · “Welcome home” event | HomeView $299 (ships 13 Nov, not in the EU); Apple TV 4K $299 single 128GB model; HomePod mini 2 $149 (30 Oct). Record intraday high $348.15 on event day, closed +0.09%. FQ4 results 2 Nov (calendar listing). iPhone Duo pre-orders 16 Oct. Closed 13 Oct $341.27, +0.09% |
| DELL | 14 Oct · Barclays downgrade | New today. Barclays (Tim Long) Overweight to Equal Weight, target $603 to $574; “we don’t see a meaningful AI inflection yet.” −7.3% at the open. Mizuho Outperform, $650 (6 Oct). FQ2’27 rev $47.0bn +58%; AI orders $60.9bn; backlog $95.0bn; FY27 rev guide ~$192bn. Closed 13 Oct $572.47, −0.74% |
| SMCI | 8 Oct · Citi / Mizuho | −4.6% at the open with Dell and HPE. Citi $45, Mizuho $43, both Neutral. Closed 13 Oct $39.07, −2.28% |
| HPE | 14 Oct · Barclays downgrade | New today. Barclays Overweight to Equal Weight, target $83 to $77. −6.0% at the open. Closed 13 Oct $68.81, −2.16% |
| Space & mobility | ||
| SPCX | 8 Oct · Grain spectrum deal | −4.21% Tuesday as Piper Sandler cut AST SpaceMobile on SpaceX’s direct-to-cell push. Grain 800 MHz spectrum (WSJ: $8bn cash); EchoStar deals ~$17bn and $2.6bn. Next lock-up tranches 24 Oct, 8 Dec. Closed 13 Oct $156.54, −4.21% |
| TSLA | 3 Oct · Terafab | Roadster reveal Thu 15 Oct, 20:55 ET (19:55 CT), near Waco, Texas. Q3 results Wed 21 Oct, webcast 17:30 ET (8-K). Q3 deliveries 486,532. Closed 13 Oct $375.23, −0.74% |
| RKLB | Closed 13 Oct $64.22, −2.27% | |
| Private labs (tracked, no ticker) | ||
| OpenAI | 13 Oct · DOJ charge | New today. Engineer Abdulrahman Alfozan (35, Saudi, joined Jul 2025) arrested 9 Oct, charged with intercepting oral communications; USB device inside a TV in an executive conference room; found late Sep; OpenAI used its own models to trace it; “no indications” weights, code or customer data were taken; hearing 19 Oct. ~$50bn annualized at end-Sep on its own definition (FT); raising $30bn+ at $1.4tn pre-money. |
| Anthropic | 13–14 Oct · rehearing / investor day | New today. Petition for rehearing (panel or en banc) of the D.C. Circuit’s 25 Sep 2–1 ruling upholding the Department of War supply-chain-risk designation; says it has cost “billions” (Reuters). Pre-IPO investor day today, San Francisco (Bloomberg; no company confirmation; no disclosures yet). Reported: $1.8–2tn target, marketing week of 9 Nov; S-1 not public. IREN contract reported by The Information, unconfirmed. ~$65bn run-rate in July (partner sales included). |
- ASML vs consensus. GuruFocus: €11.66bn narrowly missed a €11.72bn consensus; Investing.com: $13.21bn beat $13.16bn by 0.4%; the company: “towards the high end of our guidance.” We report the guide, not the consensus. Investing.com’s EPS of €12.93 (RTT) vs €12.95 (release) is a basic/diluted difference.
- ASML’s share reaction. RTT (+2%, €1,538, morning), MarketScreener (+0.6%), Yahoo chart (−0.56%, €1,501.20 at 09:42 ET). The quote we use is the latest.
- CoreWeave’s bond. The 15% / 14.5% figures come from a chart posted by Chamath Palihapitiya and relayed by Benzinga; the FT says “almost 15%”; a two-week-old TradingView listing showed ~13%. We have not seen a dealer run. The “new capital raise” in 14 October recaps is the September converts ($3.7bn base, $4.2bn final) and ATM, not a new filing. Debt is ~$35bn (balance-sheet debt) or ~$52bn (debt plus leases) depending on the source.
- CoreWeave’s move. Pre-market −7% (theenergymag), −13.3% at 09:42 ET (Yahoo), −13.66% on Investing.com’s ticker; one Investing.com article body says “nearly 3%,” which is Tuesday’s intraday figure.
- Dell and HPE. Barclays’ new rating is “Equal Weight” (Asianet, StockTwits) or “Hold” (one recap). A Morgan Stanley Dell downgrade to Underweight / $110 resurfaced in Wednesday feeds; it is from 17 November 2025.
- Decart. The talks were first reported by the Wall Street Journal (12 Oct); 24/7 Wall St. relays them without naming it. The May 2026 valuation is “just under $4bn” (WSJ, Globes); the $3.1bn some recaps cite is the August 2025 round. The $7bn, the ~$6bn Anthropic look and the “half the cost of GPUs” claim are unverified by either company.
- IREN and Anthropic. The Information reported a multi-year agreement; TradingKey and ad-hoc-news say IREN “finalized” or “said” it; FinanceFeeds says neither company confirmed. We treat it as unconfirmed.
- Oracle’s totals. $10m × 10 years plus $55m × 3 years is up to $265m; Oracle’s headline says “at least $155m” (the full $100m ESA plus one year of credits); Construction Review says “up to $165m” of credits. We give the components.
- Tuesday’s SOX. Reuters/Globe: −1.5%, sixth straight decline; Yahoo chart: 12,208.79 (−0.23% vs 12,236.79). The index closes differ by provider; the six-day streak holds either way.
- CPI. CNBC gives the monthly figures (+0.6% headline, +0.3% core); CBS gives only the annual rates (3.7% / 2.6%) and says gasoline was “more than half” of the monthly rise; CNBC says “about half.”
- Earnings dates. Lam 21 Oct is an aggregator date (TipRanks marks it an estimate); Alphabet 28 Oct is “company-announced” per calendars but we found no release; Amazon 29 Oct, Apple 2 Nov, GE Vernova 28 Oct and CoreWeave 9 Nov are listings; SK hynix 27 (Korea Times) vs 28 Oct (Quartr).
On the calendar
- Wed 14 OctSeptember CPI, 08:30 ET (out: 3.7% y/y). ASML Q3 (out), call 09:00 ET. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley Q3 (out). Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET. Anthropic pre-IPO investor day, San Francisco (Bloomberg; unconfirmed by the company).
- Thu 15 Oct, 02:00 ETTSMC third-quarter results (14:00 Taipei): gross margin vs 65–67%, 2026 capex vs $60–64bn, any 2027 capex framing, N2 ramp dilution. September PPI, 08:30 ET. Datadog Paris Summit. Tesla Roadster reveal, 20:55 ET (19:55 CT), near Waco, Texas.
- Fri 16 OctSurface Laptop Ultra (RTX Spark) ships; iPhone Duo pre-orders open.
- Mon 19 OctAlfozan hearing, federal court, San Francisco. Micron Taoyuan union rally. Trade Desk special meeting on option repricing. Broadcom note exchange offer expires.
- Tue 20 Oct, 16:01 ETNetflix third quarter (company-confirmed).
- Wed 21 OctMeta Q3 after the close, call 16:30 ET (company-confirmed 12 Oct). Tesla Q3 after the close, webcast 17:30 ET (8-K). Texas Instruments (call 16:30 ET). Lam Research FQ1 after the close, call 17:00 ET (aggregator date). IBM after the close.
- Thu 22 OctBloom Energy Q3 after the close (company-confirmed).
- Sat 24 OctSpaceX lock-up tranche (trades from Mon 26 Oct).
- Tue 27 OctSK hynix third quarter (Korea Times; Quartr: 28 Oct): first management answer on 4Q26 DRAM contract pricing after the CXMT claim. FOMC meeting begins.
- Wed 28 OctFOMC decision, 14:00 ET (Williams: one more hike this year). Vertiv Q3 pre-market, call 11:00 ET (company-confirmed). After the close: Microsoft FQ1’27 (webcast 17:30 ET, confirmed), Alphabet Q3 (call 16:30 ET), ServiceNow (call 17:00 ET, confirmed), KLA FQ1’27 (call 17:00 ET, confirmed). GE Vernova Q3 (aggregator).
- Thu 29 OctIntel Q3 after the close, call 17:00 ET (company release). Samsung Electronics call (Korea Times; one calendar shows 30 Oct). Amazon after the close (unconfirmed).
- Fri 30 OctHomePod mini 2 on sale. MediaTek third quarter (~30 Oct, calendar listing).
- Sun 1 NovUS daylight saving ends; Taipei and Seoul releases move one hour later in ET from here on (TSMC monthly sales 00:30 ET).
- Mon 2 NovApple FQ4 (calendar listing; call 17:00 ET). Palantir (expected).
- Tue 3 NovAMD Q3 after the close, call 17:00 ET. Astera Labs after the close. Shopify Q3. Eaton Q3 (listing). Coherent early November (not yet announced).
- Wed 4 NovASML interim dividend €1.88 paid. KLA annual meeting. Qualcomm FQ4 (aggregator date). Uber (call 08:00 ET, reported). AppLovin after the close (company-confirmed). MercadoLibre (expected).
- Mon 9 NovCoreWeave Q3 (aggregator date). Anthropic IPO marketing could start this week (Bloomberg).
- Tue 10 Nov, 00:30 ETTSMC October sales (13:30 Taipei). Infineon FY results (per our study notes).
- Fri 13 NovHomeView and Apple TV 4K ship.
- Tue 17 NovNvidia FQ3’27 after the close (expected, not yet announced).
Story worth owning
Sold out to 2028, financed at 15%: who actually carries the duration between an EUV slot and a GPU lease
This morning ASML said its 2027 and 2028 supply will not meet demand and that customers are asking about 2029 and 2030; last night CoreWeave’s unsecured 2032 notes closed at a 14.5% yield. Both facts are about the same chips. An EUV tool ordered today ships in 2027–28 into a fab whose wafers are sold to an accelerator vendor whose customers include neoclouds whose contracts average three years and whose marginal unsecured money now costs 14.5%. Nobody independent has walked the duration down that chain. Sell-side coverage treats ASML’s backlog and CoreWeave’s yield as different stories; they are the two ends of one.
The testable claim: the share of 2027–28 wafer-fab-equipment demand that ultimately depends on sub-investment-grade financing is large enough that a credit repricing at the periphery reaches ASML’s order book before ASML’s own reporting would show it. The work is a ledger in four columns: (1) ASML’s own hard number, the contract-liability (customer down-payment) line in its Q3 balance sheet from the 6-K, against the quarter’s system sales, since bookings are no longer reported; (2) TSMC’s 2027 capex guidance tomorrow against the $78–90bn sell-side range; (3) the funding mix of the end buyers, with hyperscaler capex (~$600bn, largely cash-funded, debt now 32% of capex on FactSet’s trailing count) separated from neocloud and sovereign capex funded above 9% (CoreWeave $35–39bn, Nebius, IREN, Oracle’s $90–95bn at BBB-, SoftBank’s 9.75% paper); and (4) the price of that money week by week, which our AI-bubble radar already tracks as tripwire 5. Our ASML, TSMC, CoreWeave, Oracle, Nebius and IREN studies hold every input. The dates to publish against are TSMC tomorrow, Lam on 21 October, and Anthropic’s roadshow in November, which is the first time a lab’s compute commitments will be marketed to public credit and equity investors in the same month.
Sources
- ASML: Q3 2026 results press release · 14 Oct 2026, 01:00 ET
- ASML Q3 2026 release (GlobeNewswire via Yahoo Finance) · 14 Oct 2026
- Investing.com: ASML Q3 2026 earnings call transcript summary · 14 Oct 2026
- RTTNews: ASML Q3 profit surges, lifts FY26 outlook · 14 Oct 2026, 06:42 ET
- GuruFocus: ASML Q3 revenues near guidance · 14 Oct 2026
- CNBC: September 2026 CPI report · 14 Oct 2026, 08:30 ET
- CBS News: September CPI shows inflation accelerated to 3.7% · 14 Oct 2026, 09:17 ET
- Benzinga: CoreWeave bond yield hits 15%; Musk “Yikes” · 14 Oct 2026
- The Energy Mag: CoreWeave falls 7% premarket as bond-yield surge fuels debt concerns · 14 Oct 2026
- Benzinga: CoreWeave eyes “unlimited” insurance capital (FT interview with Brannin McBee) · 14 Oct 2026
- Investing.com: Why is CoreWeave stock sliding today? · 13 Oct 2026, 10:13 ET
- CoreWeave 8-K: pricing of $3.7bn 2.875% convertible senior notes due 2033 · 18 Sep 2026
- Oracle: proposes plan that could deliver at least $155m to offset New Mexico customers’ utility costs · 13 Oct 2026
- StockTwits: Oracle proposes up to $55m in annual bill credits, reaffirms Bloom’s role · 13 Oct 2026
- Gotrade: Oracle closes +4.23% at $143.20; Project Jupiter filings; OCP working group · 14 Oct 2026
- 24/7 Wall St. (via AOL): Amazon reportedly in talks to pay $7bn for Decart · 13 Oct 2026, 11:32 ET
- Motley Fool: Why Applied Materials sank today (investor breakfast, 2030 targets) · 13 Oct 2026, 15:53 ET
- 24/7 Wall St.: Semiconductor equipment stocks slide; AMAT −7%, Lam and KLA −4% · 13 Oct 2026
- Reuters via The Globe and Mail: “Brutal session” for chip stocks (SOX sixth decline; CoreWeave bond; Firmus) · 13 Oct 2026
- CNBC: Micron sinks, other memory-linked names dip for a second day · 13 Oct 2026
- Motley Fool via Yahoo: Stock market today, 13 Oct (index closes, Micron, Sandisk) · 13 Oct 2026, 17:14 ET
- Saxo: Market Quick Take, 14 October 2026 (Williams, Fed odds, oil, FX, Asia morning) · 14 Oct 2026
- Korea Times: Kospi falls for 6th session, barely holds above 6,000 · 14 Oct 2026
- TradingKey: Japan, South Korea stocks fall after higher open (Samsung, SK hynix, Kioxia, SoftBank closes) · 14 Oct 2026
- ad-hoc-news: TAIEX closes up 285 points at 48,626; TSMC unchanged · 14 Oct 2026
- AP: Asian shares trade mixed; Europe, futures, oil, Bank of America · 14 Oct 2026, 07:27 ET
- Asianet Newsable: HPE, Dell, NetApp downgraded by Barclays, “no meaningful AI inflection yet” · 14 Oct 2026
- France 24 / AFP: FBI arrests OpenAI employee for allegedly bugging San Francisco office · 14 Oct 2026, 01:49 (updated 07:39)
- Washington Post: OpenAI employee arrested by FBI after listening device found at its office · 13 Oct 2026
- Reuters via The Star: Anthropic seeks rehearing of case over Pentagon’s security-risk branding · 14 Oct 2026
- Bloomberg: Anthropic is said to plan pre-IPO investor day as listing nears · 1 Oct 2026
- Investing.com: IREN stock jumps on multiyear cloud deal with Anthropic (The Information) · 12 Oct 2026
- FinanceFeeds: IREN fades on unconfirmed Anthropic report · 12 Oct 2026
- Benzinga via Yahoo: Broadcom CEO says many AI investors have “no clue,” likens boom to a casino (Bloomberg quotes) · 12 Oct 2026, 15:35 ET
- Google DeepMind: Gemini 4 Argon is now globally available · 13 Oct 2026
- Bloomberg: Microsoft eyes first record in nearly a year · 13 Oct 2026
- Meta: to announce third quarter 2026 results on 21 October · 12 Oct 2026
- Vertiv: date of third quarter 2026 earnings release (28 Oct, call 11:00 ET) · 14 Oct 2026
- KLA: first quarter fiscal 2027 earnings date (28 Oct) · 1 Oct 2026
- Intel: to report third-quarter 2026 results on 29 October · 6 Oct 2026
- CNBC: Morgan Stanley Q3 2026 earnings · 14 Oct 2026
- Investing.com: Bank of America falls 4% on third-quarter miss ($1.2bn charge) · 14 Oct 2026
- 24/7 Wall St.: AST SpaceMobile sinks as Piper Sandler cuts to Neutral on SpaceX direct-to-cell threat · 13 Oct 2026, 10:59 ET
- Gotrade: Apple closes $341.27 after record intraday high · 14 Oct 2026
- Benzinga: Ross Gerber on HomeView, “Another screen?” · 14 Oct 2026
- Tech Insider: Tesla Roadster unveil reset to 15 Oct, 19:55 CT · Oct 2026
- Yahoo Finance chart data: 13 Oct closes and 14 Oct 09:42 ET quotes for all covered names, indices, ASML.AS, IFX.DE, 9984.T, 2454.TW, 005930.KS, 000660.KS · pulled 14 Oct 2026, 09:40–09:42 ET
Figures are as reported by the companies and the sources above and have not been independently verified against filings. “At the open” prices are Yahoo Finance quotes at ~09:42 ET on Wednesday 14 October 2026 and will have moved; Tuesday closes are from Yahoo Finance chart data; Seoul, Taipei and Tokyo closes are Wednesday’s. All times are New York time (ET). This brief is prepared for Gabriela Chiarini’s editorial use and is not investment advice.
Fact-check. A separate agent re-checked sixteen claim groups against ASML’s release and 6-K, the BLS CPI release and CBS, The Energy Mag and the FT on CoreWeave’s bonds, CoreWeave’s September 8-Ks, Oracle’s release (via Pipeline Publishing and KFOX), the Motley Fool on Applied Materials, StockTwits and Seeking Alpha on the Barclays downgrade, France 24, the Washington Post and NBC on the OpenAI arrest, Reuters on Anthropic’s petition, Korea Times, Seoul Economic Daily, TradingEconomics and the Taipei Times on Asian closes, AP and stockanalysis.com on Tuesday’s US closes, 24/7 Wall St. and Globes on Decart, the Meta, Vertiv, KLA, Intel, Netflix, Bloom, Tesla and Microsoft date notices, Bank of America’s and Morgan Stanley’s 8-Ks and CNBC, Bloomberg-derived Hock Tan quotes, Google’s Gemini 4 Argon posts, and Saxo on Williams. Confirmed: every ASML figure and quote; the CPI figures; the CoreWeave bond terms, yields and Tuesday close; the Oracle proposals; the Applied Materials targets; the Barclays targets and quote; the OpenAI charge details; the Anthropic petition quotes; the Kospi, Samsung, SK hynix and TAIEX closes; all Tuesday US closes checked; the bank results; the calendar dates. Applied fixes: Decart’s May 2026 valuation corrected to just under $4bn (the $3.1bn was the August 2025 round) and the originating outlet named as the Wall Street Journal; the CoreWeave converts restated as $3.7bn upsized to $4.2bn, due April 2033, with the $35bn-vs-$52bn debt definitions noted; the Oracle $155m gloss corrected; Vertiv’s notice re-dated to 14 Oct; CET corrected to CEST; Williams’ remark no longer dated to Tuesday; McBee’s “not yet prepared” downgraded to a paraphrase; the Oracle flood pledge re-attributed to the Community Foundation of Southern New Mexico. Not independently confirmed: the 10-year at 5.31% after CPI (Yahoo data only), the SoftBank and Kioxia Wednesday closes, Evercore’s $700 on Applied, Brent and WTI levels, and whether Oracle “asked FERC to expedite” the pipeline.
