The one thing
Coverage expanded today from 50 to 100 listed names in nine sectors, plus OpenAI and Anthropic as tracked private labs. Cloud is now split into Hyperscalers & neoclouds, Power & data-centre infrastructure, and Networking & optical. This edition was re-run on the new list.
The demand number the build-out is priced on just got smaller. The Financial Times, citing documents it reviewed, reported on Thursday that OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was “approaching $50bn” at the end of September, about $20bn below the ~$70bn Axios reported on 29 September. The gap is a definition, not lost sales: per the FT, OpenAI’s own investors grossed up its figure to match Anthropic’s method, which counts sales made through AWS and Google Cloud; OpenAI does not count partner sales. OpenAI declined to comment to Bloomberg. Late Thursday (21:43 ET) Bloomberg reported that OpenAI expects to reach or exceed $70bn of annualized revenue by year-end, mostly from enterprise, figures shared with investors in its $30bn-plus raise at a $1.4tn pre-money valuation.
The market sold the most-exposed names. Oracle −5.48%, CoreWeave −7.77%, Arm −6.48%, Intel −5.34%, Micron −4.79%, Broadcom −4.35%, AMD −3.90%, Nvidia −2.94%. The same day, the WSJ reported that Oracle is negotiating an off-balance-sheet vehicle to buy chips and lease them back, and that Broadcom is seeking more than $50bn to finance OpenAI’s custom chip. Software rallied with no news (HubSpot +5.25%, Adobe +3.56%, Snowflake +3.17%).
Macro. Thursday: S&P 500 −0.47% to 7,765.36, Nasdaq −1.25% to 27,193.34, Dow +0.10%, SOX −3.39%. The 10-year eased to ~5.23% and initial claims fell 2,000 to 197,000. Brent is ~$102.8 (−1.4%) after Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the midterms. Futures at ~06:45 ET (Yahoo quote data): S&P +0.35%, Nasdaq-100 +0.74%, Dow +0.07%. Taiwan and South Korea are closed today for holidays. University of Michigan sentiment (preliminary) at 10:00 ET.
Sector pulse: covered names with material news
Ten of 100 listed names had news, plus both private labs. Semis: Broadcom, TSMC, MediaTek. Networking: Astera Labs. Hyperscalers & neoclouds: Oracle, CoreWeave, SoftBank. Software: Palantir. Consumer: Costco. Space: SpaceX. Private: OpenAI, Anthropic. Most of the large moves (Coherent −9.6%, IREN −7.7%, Nebius −7.4%, Vistra −6.4%) came without company news and are not counted.
Overnight & last session
Semis & equipment
WSJ: Broadcom seeks more than $50bn to finance OpenAI’s custom chip; the stock falls 4.35%
Per WSJ summaries (the article is paywalled), Broadcom is seeking more than $50bn of financing for the custom AI chip it is co-developing with OpenAI, and has approached lenders including Apollo and Blackstone. Talks are early, the size could change, and the aim is to close before year-end; the financing could cover several gigawatts of OpenAI capacity. The partnership, announced a year ago, covers 10 GW of custom chips deployed from the second half of 2026 through 2029. On 2 October Bloomberg reported a $60bn package ($42bn Class A senior secured, $18bn Class B junior, Blackstone putting in $9bn). Broadcom closed −4.35% at $360.14. On the same report, Nvidia (10 GW OpenAI partnership) closed −2.94% and AMD (6 GW agreement) −3.90%.
The read: We cannot tell from the summaries whether the WSJ’s “>$50bn” is Bloomberg’s $60bn package or a second facility; we treat it as the same deal until shown otherwise. Either way, for our Broadcom study the point is that the buyer of the chip cannot pay for it: the supplier is arranging the customer’s financing. That makes OpenAI’s revenue, now ~$50bn and not ~$70bn, the thing the lenders are underwriting, and Thursday showed that number can move by $20bn on a definition.
TSMC hires GlobalFoundries to make CoWoS interposers in New York, ~$2bn over five years
GlobalFoundries (not covered) will produce silicon interposers for TSMC’s CoWoS advanced-packaging platform at its Malta, New York fab. Reports put the arrangement at about $2bn, with an initial five-year term and a framework to add capacity with demand; volume production starts ramping in the first half of 2028. It would be the first US source of interposers for this kind of packaging. GlobalFoundries rose about 4% premarket and closed +2.7%. TSM’s ADR closed −3.01% at $457.99 with the group. Taiwan is closed today (National Day, observed), so 2330.TW last traded at NT$2,550 on Thursday.
The read: Interposers, not wafers, have been the binding constraint on CoWoS, and TSMC is now outsourcing part of that layer to a US rival rather than building all of it. For our TSMC study, ask on 15 October whether this is about capacity, about US content for Arizona-made chips, or both. A 2028 ramp does nothing for 2026–27 supply.
MediaTek September sales NT$55.4bn, +2.0% y/y; the third quarter lands above the top of guidance
From MediaTek’s monthly filing: September consolidated revenue NT$55,399m, +1.97% from NT$54,330m a year earlier and −13.69% from August’s NT$64,183m. January–September revenue was NT$469,391m, +5.30%. Adding July (NT$48,475m) puts the third quarter at about NT$168.1bn, our sum, against guidance of NT$152.2–159.8bn at NT$32 per dollar. The shares closed −3.00% at NT$4,690 on Thursday; Taiwan is closed today.
The read: For our MediaTek study, a quarter about 5% above the top of the range follows a weak first half (Jan–Sep is only +5.3%), so the beat is a third-quarter story. The September step-down follows an unusually strong August, so one month is not a trend. Results are expected around 30 October; the question is whether fourth-quarter guidance holds the level, and how much of the jump is the ASIC and AI business versus smartphones. This is also the first read on Qualcomm’s handset competitor ahead of its own print.
The rest of the group fell on the OpenAI report, without news of its own. Arm −6.48%, Intel −5.34%, Sandisk −4.90%, Micron −4.79%, IonQ −4.57%, SK hynix (SKHY) −4.35%, Cerebras −4.07%, Monolithic Power −3.94%, onsemi −3.76%, Marvell −3.52%, Western Digital −2.99%, Lam −2.71%, Applied −2.13%, ASML −1.95%. The less AI-exposed names held: KLA −0.06%, Texas Instruments −0.27%, Qualcomm −0.63%, Analog Devices −1.01%. Infineon is +2.03% in Frankfurt today.
Networking & optical
Astera Labs falls 9.2% on a Northland downgrade, the day it launched Aries 7
Northland Capital Markets cut Astera Labs to Market Perform from Outperform, citing valuation (Investing.com); Zacks had moved to Hold the day before. Astera launched Aries 7, its PCIe 7 retimer, the same day, and a Form 144 filed on 8 October disclosed a proposed insider sale. ALAB closed −9.21% at $347.05, its second fall in a row, with the OpenAI report hitting the group. Optical names fell further with no company news: Coherent −9.63%, Lumentum −5.62%, Ciena −4.60%; 24/7 Wall St. called it profit-taking after large gains this year.
The read: Connectivity is the most valuation-exposed part of the stack: at a P/E above 170 for Astera, two downgrades (Northland on valuation, and Zacks) plus the OpenAI report were enough. For our Astera Labs, Coherent and Lumentum studies, the question for the early-November prints (Astera 3 November, Coherent early November, date not yet announced) is whether custom-ASIC clusters (Broadcom, OpenAI) keep pulling scale-up connectivity at the rate the stocks now price in.
Also: Credo −3.70%, Arista −2.25%, Cisco −2.13%.
Hyperscalers & neoclouds
Oracle falls 5.5% on the OpenAI report and a WSJ story that it wants to lease chips through an off-balance-sheet vehicle
The WSJ reported that Oracle is in talks with Apollo, Goldman Sachs and other institutions to finance a large chip purchase, aiming to close as soon as this year. The likely structure: investors fund a separate company that buys the chips and leases them to Oracle, so Oracle does not borrow more itself. The size and chip count were not given; the WSJ noted that Nvidia chips for a single 1 GW data centre cost tens of billions of dollars. Oracle did not comment in the coverage we found. Context from Yahoo Finance: capex was $28.5bn in the June–August quarter, against $2.3bn two years earlier; RPO is $664bn; and Bloomberg says long-term debt has nearly doubled in two years to over $160bn. Oracle’s reported $300bn, five-year OpenAI contract is about 45% of that RPO (our arithmetic). ORCL closed −5.48% at $135.69. Microsoft closed −1.35%.
The read: The leaseback answers the question bond investors have been asking (how much more can Oracle borrow?) by moving the borrowing to a vehicle Oracle does not consolidate. It does not change the economics. Oracle still owes the lease payments, and the payments still depend on OpenAI. For our Oracle work, the useful comparison is $300bn over five years, about $60bn a year to one customer, against that customer’s ~$50bn annualized revenue at the end of September. The year-end target of $70bn narrows the gap; it does not close it, because OpenAI’s compute commitments run across Microsoft, CoreWeave, Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom as well.
CoreWeave falls 7.8% to $81.58, the worst of the neoclouds
CoreWeave had no news of its own. It has announced OpenAI contracts worth up to $22.4bn, and it funds its build-out with delayed-draw loans secured on GPUs and contracts, including the August $2.6bn DDTL 5.5 facility at SOFR + 5.50%. The stock has fallen from $88.45 on Wednesday and is down two sessions in a row.
The read: This is the levered periphery behaving as expected: CoreWeave fell more than Oracle on a customer-revenue story, and Nebius (−7.35%) and IREN (−7.70%) went with it. For our CoreWeave study, the question to put to the 9 November print is how much of the $104.2bn backlog is OpenAI’s, and whether lenders have tightened terms on new facilities since the SpaceX and Oracle financings were reported.
SoftBank falls 3.9% in Tokyo on the OpenAI revenue report, after a 7.3% intraday low
Tokyo-listed SoftBank Group fell as much as 7.3% to ¥5,600 and closed −3.92% at ¥5,803 after Bloomberg’s year-end target report cut some of the early loss (Investing.com). SoftBank completed a further $10bn investment in OpenAI on 1 October, bringing its cumulative investment to $64.6bn and its stake to about 13%.
The read: SoftBank is the most direct listed exposure to OpenAI’s revenue, and for our SoftBank study it is also an Arm story: the $25bn Arm-backed margin loan is collateralised by the stock that funds the OpenAI position. A revenue reset at OpenAI could reach Arm holders through that chain, not through Arm’s own royalties.
Also: TeraWulf −5.21%, DigitalOcean −2.66%, Amazon −2.25% (Yahoo’s live blog says it confirmed cutting fewer than 1,000 roles, mostly in retail; we found no second source), Microsoft −1.35%, Alibaba −1.21%, Alphabet −0.63%; Applied Digital +0.17%.
Power & data-centre infrastructure
No company news; the power trade gave back last week’s rally. Vistra −6.35% (profit-taking after ~15% in two sessions, following a ~$4.2bn DOE conditional loan commitment for its nuclear plants announced 5 Oct), Bloom Energy −6.34% (despite a UBS target raise to $350), Constellation −4.85%, Digital Realty −2.44%, nVent −2.16%, Equinix −2.00%, Eaton −1.58%, Vertiv −1.12%. The regulated utilities rose: NextEra +0.40%, Dominion +0.36%, AEP +0.20%; GE Vernova +0.23% to $999.35.
SaaS & enterprise software
Palantir rises 2.4% against the tape on a Goldman upgrade to Buy, $230 target
Goldman Sachs upgraded Palantir to Buy from Neutral with a $230 target (Yahoo Finance live blog). The stock briefly reclaimed $200 (high $204.44), still short of its ~$207 record, and closed +2.40% at $198.78. Its sovereign-AI partnership with Armada was announced last week (2 Oct); a Form 144 showed an officer proposing to sell 18,000 shares.
The read: Software was the place money went on Thursday (HubSpot +5.25%, Adobe +3.56%, Intuit +2.23%). For our Palantir study, the upgrade matters less than the rotation: the market is treating AI users as a hedge against AI builders on the day the builders’ biggest customer reset its revenue.
Also: Snowflake +3.17%, MongoDB +2.29%, Workday +1.93%, Roper +1.58%, Zscaler +1.53%; Palo Alto −1.74%. No company news.
Ads & adtech
No material company news. AppLovin −0.42%: San Diego County sued it over children’s data (AppLovin says its policies prohibit collecting it), and it set third-quarter results for 4 November after the close. Netflix +2.68%, Reddit +2.46%, Trade Desk +2.07%, Zeta −2.10%.
Consumer platforms & commerce
Costco September comps +7.6% ex gas and FX, up from 5.4% in August; net sales +13.0%
For the five weeks ended 4 October, net sales were $30.02bn, +13.0% from $26.58bn. Total comparable sales rose 11.4% reported and 7.6% excluding gasoline and FX (US 8.0%, Canada 4.9%, other international 7.7%); digitally enabled sales rose 19.0%. Costco says the later Labor Day added a little over 50bp. The ex-gas comp was 5.4% in August, 6.6% in July and 7.0% in June (Motley Fool). COST closed +0.60% at $947.92.
The read: Strip out the ~50bp calendar help and September is still ~7.1%, the best of the last four months, so the three-month slowdown our Costco study flagged has paused. Note the gap between the 11.4% reported comp and the 7.6% underlying: with Brent above $100, gasoline (and FX) is flattering the reported number. The same calendar shift cost August about 75bp, which makes the August low look worse than it was. Walmart rose +2.22% the same day.
Also: Booking +2.63%, Uber +2.62%, Marriott +1.28%; MercadoLibre −0.86% (Susquehanna target $2,500; results expected early November).
Hardware & devices
No company news. Super Micro −4.83% after a server rally (Citi reportedly raised its target to $45, Mizuho to $43, both Neutral), HPE −1.51%, Dell −0.76%; Apple +1.11%. Apple’s reported 13 October event is still unconfirmed by Apple.
Space & mobility
SpaceX lock-up tranche today, after a 4.2% fall; WSJ repeats the $40bn chip-financing talks
A tranche of roughly 319–328m shares becomes eligible for sale today under the staggered lock-up schedule (secondary sources based on the S-1; one puts the date at 10 October). The WSJ’s financing story repeated that SpaceX has discussed a ~$40bn financing for Nvidia chips with lenders, crediting the FT. SPCX closed −4.19% at $160.57, after −2.51% on Wednesday. Tesla −0.74%.
The read: For our SpaceX study, today’s supply comes as the stock has fallen two days on the financing news. On 6 August, the first and largest release (~911m shares), the stock closed up 6%. That is one data point, not a pattern.
Also: Rocket Lab −4.89%; no company news.
Private labs
Anthropic launches a Cyber Mission with 11 security partners, including CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks
Anthropic’s Critical Infrastructure Defense Program gives operational-technology security providers its frontier models, on-site engineers and threat research for grids, water and transport. The 11 founding partners are Accenture, Booz Allen, CrowdStrike, Deloitte, Dragos, Hitachi, Insane Cyber, Nozomi Networks, Palo Alto Networks, PwC and Rockwell Automation. It also launched a free OSS Scanner for open-source projects, and folded Project Glasswing into its Cyber Verification Program; a 2026 usage-policy update is also posted. No dollar amounts were given. Separately, Bloomberg reports a pre-IPO investor day on 14 October.
The read: For our Anthropic study, this is distribution through incumbents: CrowdStrike and Palo Alto become channels for Anthropic models rather than competitors to them. It also sharpens Thursday’s OpenAI story. Anthropic’s ~$65bn July run-rate counts sales through AWS and Google Cloud; OpenAI’s ~$50bn does not. Any IPO comparison has to put both on the same definition.
OpenAI is the lead story: see “The one thing”.
Full-year capex guidance across the build-out
| Company | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Amazon AMZN · CY2026 | ~$220bn |
| Alphabet GOOGL · CY2026 | $195–205bn |
| Microsoft MSFT · CY2026 | ~$175bn |
| Meta META · CY2026 | $130–145bn |
| Oracle ORCL · FY2027 | $90–95bn |
| TSMC TSM · CY2026 | $60–64bn |
| Micron MU · FY27, net, implied | >$50bn |
| CoreWeave CRWV · CY2026 | $35–39bn |
| Intel INTC · CY2026, gross | >$20bn |
Where each name stands
This is a standing table. The last-print column and key figures change only when a name discloses something; otherwise they are carried forward. New today marks rows with company news since yesterday’s brief; Added today marks the 50 names that joined coverage this morning, where the key-figures column starts mostly blank and fills as they report. Prices are Thursday 8 October closes from Yahoo Finance chart data; Tokyo and Frankfurt quotes are Friday 9 October. Where we have no figure, the cell is blank.
| Name | Last print | Key figures from it |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | ||
| NVDA | 7 Oct · SpaceX financing / RTX Spark | SpaceX seeking ~$40bn of debt to buy Nvidia chips (Reuters/FT, preliminary). Surface Laptop Ultra on RTX Spark from $2,599. FQ2’27 rev $96.2bn +106%; FQ3 guide $108.0bn ±2%. Closed 8 Oct $230.48, −2.94% |
| AVGO | 8 Oct · WSJ: >$50bn OpenAI-chip financing | New today. WSJ: seeking >$50bn to finance the custom chip it is building with OpenAI; Apollo and Blackstone approached; early stage. Earlier (2 Oct, Bloomberg): $42bn Class A senior secured + $18bn Class B junior (Blackstone, $9bn own capital) (Bloomberg). Exchange offer expires 19 Oct. FQ3’26 rev $29.591bn +85.5%; AI semis $16.7bn; FQ4 guide ~$34.8bn. Closed 8 Oct $360.14, −4.35% |
| AMD | 6 Oct · record close | Su: supply to “substantially increase” in 2027; Citi target $800 (from $575). All-stock World Labs deal ~$8.2bn. Susquehanna: Q3 CPU model share +3.1pts to 29.3%. Call only: FY2027 data-centre revenue ~$70bn. Closed 8 Oct $620.68, −3.90% |
| QCOM | 5 Oct · Huawei licence | First 5G cross-licence with Huawei; terms undisclosed. QTL $1.28bn last quarter. Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 on TSMC 2nm. Closed 8 Oct $176.01, −0.63% |
| MU | 7 Oct · Taiwan strike vote | Taoyuan union: 1,994 votes, 99% of ballots, for a strike; no date; 19 Oct Taipei rally. FQ4’26 (30 Sep): rev $54.23bn +379%; non-GAAP GM 87.0%; EPS $33.42. FQ1 guide $61.5bn ±$1.5bn, EPS $38.15. 1H FY27 capex ~$25bn, 2H higher. Closed 8 Oct $1,035.84, −4.79% |
| INTC | 5 Oct · Terafab / Susquehanna | Third daily fall on Terafab reports; no company comment. 14A was Terafab’s only named process (since April). Susquehanna: Q3 CPU model share −3.9pts to 68.1%. Q2’26 rev $16.13bn +25.4%; 2026 capex >$20bn gross. Closed 8 Oct $107.08, −5.34% |
| TXN | 17 Sep · 8-K | Dividend $1.42 → $1.52 (+7%). Q3 20 Oct (aggregator). Closed 8 Oct $288.20, −0.27% |
| MRVL | 6 Oct · investor day | FY2028 rev ~$20bn (cons. ~$18.2bn); FY2029 custom >$12bn (was >$10bn); FY2031 rev $70–90bn, EPS >$30; TAM $400bn by 2030 (press summaries). Google warrant ~59m shares. FQ3 guide ~$3.15bn. Closed 8 Oct $274.66, −3.52% |
| AMAT | 8 Sep · Citi TMT | Rolling eight-quarter customer forecasts up every quarter. Closed 8 Oct $509.57, −2.13% |
| KLAC | 22 Sep · DEF 14A | Annual meeting 4 Nov. Call only: CY2026 WFE mid-$150bns. Closed 8 Oct $196.72, −0.06% |
| LRCX | 16 Sep · India plan | INR 10,000 crore India plant. Call only: CY2026 WFE “low $150bns”. Closed 8 Oct $320.59, −2.71% |
| ASML | 8 Sep · releases | High-NA EUV collaborations with Samsung and Intel Foundry. Q3 14 Oct. Closed 8 Oct $1,769.79, −1.95% |
| ARM | 18–21 Sep · SoftBank / Form 4 | SoftBank’s Arm-backed margin loan $25bn. AGI CPU outlook $1bn. Closed 8 Oct $275.29, −6.48% |
| TSM | 8 Oct · GlobalFoundries interposers | New today. GlobalFoundries to make silicon interposers for TSMC’s CoWoS in Malta, NY: ~$2bn, initial five-year term, volume ramp 1H28 (reported). Taiwan closed 9 Oct (National Day). Sep NT$511,857m, +54.6% y/y, −0.6% m/m; Jan–Sep NT$3,898.7bn +41.1%. 3Q26 ~NT$1.49tn / $46.7bn (Bloomberg calc) vs guide $44.6–45.8bn, GM 65–67%; 2026 capex $60–64bn. 3Q26 results 15 Oct 02:00 ET. 2330.TW NT$2,550 (−1.35%) on 8 Oct. ADR: Closed 8 Oct $457.99, −3.01% |
| CDNS | Closed 8 Oct $348.84, −2.04% | |
| SNPS | 1 Oct · AWS licence | AWS multi-year licence >$1bn. FY26–30: ~15% revenue CAGR, ~50% op. margin by FY30. FY27 guide $11.10–11.20bn. Closed 8 Oct $497.75, −0.98% |
| ADI | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $405.93, −1.01% | |
| NXPI | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $231.07, −1.76% | |
| ON | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $79.41, −3.76% | |
| IFNNY | Added today. Home listing IFX.DE; ADR IFNNY. FY ends Sep; results 10 Nov (per our study notes). IFX.DE: closed 9 Oct €60.10, +2.03% | |
| MPWR | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $1,369.80, −3.94% | |
| 2454.TW | 8 Oct · Sep sales | Added today. New today. Sep NT$55,399m, +1.97% y/y, −13.69% m/m; Jan–Sep NT$469,391m +5.30%. 3Q26 ~NT$168.1bn (our sum) vs guide NT$152.2–159.8bn. Taiwan closed 9 Oct. Closed 8 Oct NT$4,690, −3.00% |
| 005930.KS | 8 Oct · 3Q26 prelim | Added today. Prelim 3Q26 op. profit KRW 107.4tn (+782.5% y/y); revenue KRW 195tn. Full results with divisional detail late Oct. Korea closed 9 Oct. Closed 8 Oct ₩262,000, −2.42% |
| SKHY | Added today. US listing of SK hynix; 000660.KS closed 8 Oct ₩1,681,000 (−2.44%); Korea closed 9 Oct. Closed 8 Oct $170.50, −4.35% | |
| SNDK | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $1,609.46, −4.90% | |
| WDC | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $393.31, −2.99% | |
| IONQ | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $39.45, −4.57% | |
| CBRS | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $167.92, −4.07% | |
| Networking & optical | ||
| CSCO | 9 Sep | Middle East AI partnership with AMD reported. Closed 8 Oct $114.89, −2.13% |
| ANET | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $210.97, −2.25% | |
| CIEN | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $425.93, −4.60% | |
| COHR | 1 Oct · Bernstein | Added today. Bernstein initiation Outperform, $350 target (30 Sep/1 Oct). Next results early Nov (date not yet announced). Closed 8 Oct $302.35, −9.63% |
| LITE | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $1,048.60, −5.62% | |
| CRDO | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $211.86, −3.70% | |
| ALAB | 8 Oct · Northland / Aries 7 | Added today. New today. Northland to Market Perform from Outperform; Aries 7 (PCIe 7) launched; Form 144 insider-sale notice. Results 3 Nov. Closed 8 Oct $347.05, −9.21% |
| Hyperscalers & neoclouds | ||
| AMZN | 2 Oct · “Built Together” | >$1bn over five years to data-centre communities; 20-year 690 MW Calvert Cliffs PPA. Q2’26 net sales $200.6bn +20%, AWS $42.2bn +37%. 2026 capex ~$220bn. Closed 8 Oct $254.06, −2.25% |
| MSFT | 7 Oct · Surface event | Surface Laptop Ultra on Nvidia RTX Spark, from $2,599, ships 16 Oct; RTX Spark Dev Box from ~$6,000. FY2026 revenue >$331bn +18%; Azure >$100bn +41%. CY2026 capex ~$175bn. Closed 8 Oct $522.61, −1.35% |
| GOOGL | 6 Oct · Constellation | 3,590 MW with Constellation: 890 MW new nuclear (20-yr PPA, >$4.3bn CEG investment, first uprate 2028) + 2,700 MW (15-yr); price undisclosed. Q2’26 cloud +82%, FCF −$5.9bn. 2026 capex $195–205bn. Closed 8 Oct $348.29, −0.63% |
| ORCL | 8 Oct · WSJ chip-lease talks / OpenAI | New today. WSJ: talks with Apollo, Goldman Sachs on an off-balance-sheet vehicle that buys chips and leases them to Oracle; size undisclosed. FT: OpenAI run-rate ~$50bn at end-Sep. FQ1’27 capex $28.5bn. OpenAI raising $30bn+ at $1.4tn pre-money (Bloomberg). Jupiter force majeure (24 Sep). FQ1’27 rev $19.3bn +30%; RPO $664bn. Closed 8 Oct $135.69, −5.48% |
| NET | 29 Sep · Birthday Week | Public certificate authority with GlobalSign root keys. Closed 8 Oct $341.89, −0.31% |
| CRWV | 8 Oct · OpenAI read-across | New today. Worst day in the cover group on the OpenAI run-rate report; OpenAI contracts up to $22.4bn. Truist (5 Oct) Buy, $165: Truist Buy, $165: ~37.5% cumulative price increase since July; 70% of Q2 deals with prepayments. Q2’26 rev $2,575m +112%; backlog $104.2bn; CY2026 capex $35–39bn. Closed 8 Oct $81.58, −7.77% |
| NBIS | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $219.71, −7.35% | |
| IREN | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $35.71, −7.70% | |
| APLD | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $23.85, +0.17% | |
| WULF | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $13.65, −5.21% | |
| DOCN | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $123.90, −2.66% | |
| BABA | Added today. AI-related revenue RMB12.38bn, 12th straight quarter of triple-digit growth (last print). Closed 8 Oct $105.70, −1.21% | |
| SFTBY | 9 Oct · Tokyo session | Added today. New today. OpenAI stake: $64.6bn cumulative, ~13%, after a $10bn tranche on 1 Oct. Tokyo intraday low ¥5,600 (−7.3%). 9984.T: closed 9 Oct ¥5,803, −3.92% |
| Power & data-centre infrastructure | ||
| GEV | 1 Oct · Evercore | Rallied on the Google–Constellation deal; first close above $1,000 since mid-August. Backlog $176bn at Q2. Closed 8 Oct $999.35, +0.23% |
| VRT | 2 Sep · M&A | UtilityInnovation Group, ~$1.45bn + up to $1.15bn earnout. Closed 8 Oct $243.73, −1.12% |
| CEG | 6 Oct · Google deal | Added today. Google: 890 MW new nuclear (20-yr) + 2,700 MW (15-yr); >$4.3bn CEG investment. Closed 8 Oct $285.07, −4.85% |
| NEE | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $77.37, +0.40% | |
| D | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $61.75, +0.36% | |
| AEP | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $122.32, +0.20% | |
| BE | 8 Oct · UBS | Added today. UBS target $350. Closed 8 Oct $272.82, −6.34% |
| NVT | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $164.20, −2.16% | |
| VST | Added today. DOE conditional loan commitment ~$4.2bn for its nuclear plants (5 Oct); ~+15% on 6–7 Oct. Closed 8 Oct $156.14, −6.35% | |
| ETN | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $424.51, −1.58% | |
| EQIX | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $1,011.16, −2.00% | |
| DLR | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $176.07, −2.44% | |
| SaaS & enterprise software | ||
| CRM | 16 Sep · investor day | FY2030 revenue >$63bn incl. Informatica. Closed 8 Oct $227.80, +1.44% |
| ADBE | 22 Sep · 10-Q | Q3 rev $6.76bn; RPO ~$22.16bn; FY guide $26.576–26.626bn. Closed 8 Oct $241.05, +3.56% |
| NOW | 22 Jul · Q2’26 | Subscription growth 24–25%; AI ACV $1bn. Closed 8 Oct $139.75, +1.36% |
| SNOW | 29 Sep · converts | $3.75bn 0% converts (2029, 2031). Product revenue $1.49bn +37%; FY outlook ~$6.07bn. Closed 8 Oct $343.40, +3.17% |
| MDB | 29 Sep · investor day | 3-year framework: revenue growth >20%; buyback +$1bn to $2bn; FY27 guide $2.99–3.03bn. Closed 8 Oct $371.35, +2.29% |
| HUBS | Closed 8 Oct $231.84, +5.25% | |
| DDOG | 10 Sep · Wedbush | Q2’26 rev ~$1.12bn +36%. Closed 8 Oct $273.80, +0.91% |
| WDAY | 29 Sep · restructuring | ~2.5% of staff cut; charges $65–80m; FY27 guidance reaffirmed. Closed 8 Oct $187.81, +1.93% |
| SAP | 8 Sep · press | Closed 8 Oct $212.40, +1.08% |
| PANW | 1 Sep · FQ4/FY26 | Q4 rev $3.41bn +34%; NGS ARR $9.10bn +63%; FY27 guide $14.10–14.20bn. Closed 8 Oct $398.50, −1.74% |
| CRWD | 14 Sep · Fal.Con | FQ3 guide $1.523–1.529bn; joins CoreWeave Partner Network (30 Sep). Closed 8 Oct $263.01, −0.92% |
| INTU | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $303.88, +2.23% | |
| PLTR | 8 Oct · Goldman | Added today. New today. Goldman upgrade to Buy, $230 target. Armada partnership (2 Oct). Closed 8 Oct $198.78, +2.40% |
| FTNT | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $189.10, −0.10% | |
| ROP | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $364.23, +1.58% | |
| ZS | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $216.81, +1.53% | |
| Ads & adtech | ||
| META | 28–30 Sep · launches / rival | Muse privacy dispute. Q2’26 rev $60.801bn +28%; 2026 capex $130–145bn. OpenAI testing visual ads in ChatGPT (US, this month). Closed 8 Oct $720.89, −0.06% |
| ZETA | 30 Sep · William Blair | On William Blair’s Analyst Conviction List. Closed 8 Oct $33.03, −2.10% |
| TTD | 18 Sep · DEF 14A | Special meeting 19 Oct on option repricing. Closed 8 Oct $12.34, +2.07% |
| ROKU | 17 Sep · 425 | DOJ Second Request on $22bn Fox deal. Closed 8 Oct $153.81, +0.71% |
| NFLX | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | Q3 20 Oct, 16:01 ET (company-confirmed). Closed 8 Oct $71.57, +2.68% |
| APP | 8 Oct · lawsuit / date | Added today. New today. San Diego County suit over children’s data (company denies targeting children). Q3 on 4 Nov after the close. Closed 8 Oct $280.12, −0.42% |
| RDDT | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $156.47, +2.46% | |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | ||
| ABNB | 8 Sep · session | Q2’26 revenue $3.6bn +17%. Closed 8 Oct $163.23, +1.62% |
| BKNG | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | Closed 8 Oct $159.97, +2.63% |
| UBER | 21 Sep · NYSE CERT | Sold 29,369,611 Aurora shares at $6.205 (17 Sep). Closed 8 Oct $70.24, +2.62% |
| SHOP | 5 Oct · Piper Sandler | Piper OW, $180: agentic shopping driving migrations; models 32% revenue growth by 2027 vs 26% consensus. Checkout opened to browser-based AI agents (28 Sep). Closed 8 Oct $164.56, −0.89% |
| WMT | 25 Sep · CEO letter | CEO letter rules out AI-driven individual pricing. Closed 8 Oct $110.56, +2.22% |
| MELI | 14 Sep · notes | Added today. $1bn 5.850% senior notes due 2036 closed. Susquehanna target $2,500 (5–6 Oct). Q3 expected ~4 Nov. Closed 8 Oct $1,856.66, −0.86% |
| PDD | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $78.26, −0.31% | |
| COST | 7 Oct · Sep sales | Added today. New today. Sep (5 wks) net sales $30.02bn +13.0%; total comp +11.4%, ex gas/FX +7.6% (US 8.0%); digital +19.0%. Labor Day shift added ~50bp. Closed 8 Oct $947.92, +0.60% |
| MAR | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $361.08, +1.28% | |
| DASH | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $191.71, +0.25% | |
| Hardware & devices | ||
| AAPL | 5 Oct · Gurman | Special event reported for 13 Oct (smart-home hub, HomePod mini, Apple TV); not confirmed by Apple. iPhone Duo pre-orders 16 Oct. Closed 8 Oct $340.42, +1.11% |
| DELL | 6 Oct · Mizuho | Mizuho Outperform, target $650 (from $600). $5bn senior notes (15 Sep). FQ2’27 rev $47.0bn +58%; AI orders $60.9bn; backlog $95.0bn; FY27 rev guide ~$192bn. Closed 8 Oct $574.55, −0.76% |
| SMCI | 8 Oct · Citi / Mizuho | Added today. Citi target $45 (single source), Mizuho $43 (6 Oct), both Neutral. Closed 8 Oct $42.77, −4.83% |
| HPE | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $71.00, −1.51% | |
| Space & mobility | ||
| SPCX | 8 Oct · WSJ / lock-up | New today. WSJ repeats the ~$40bn Nvidia-chip financing talks (FT first). Lock-up tranche today (9 Oct). ~$10bn bank loans + ~$30bn IG debt for Nvidia chips; Apollo to lead, PIMCO in talks; preliminary, unconfirmed (Reuters/FT). MS OW, $300; Starship Flight 15 late Oct/early Nov. Google pays $920m/month from Oct 2026 to Jun 2029; 90-day termination right after 31 Dec. Next lock-up tranches 24 Oct, 8 Dec. Closed 8 Oct $160.57, −4.19% |
| TSLA | 3 Oct · Terafab | Terafab (Tesla/SpaceX) in talks with TSMC; phase 1 ~$16.8bn. Q3 deliveries 486,532. Roadster reveal 15 Oct. Q2’26 FCF −$1.09bn. Closed 8 Oct $375.00, −0.74% |
| RKLB | Added today. Closed 8 Oct $68.40, −4.89% | |
| Private labs (tracked, no ticker) | ||
| OpenAI | 8 Oct · FT / Bloomberg | New today. ~$50bn annualized at end-Sep on its own definition (FT); targets ≥$70bn by year-end (Bloomberg). Raising $30bn+ at $1.4tn pre-money. Last round $122bn at $852bn (Mar). |
| Anthropic | 8 Oct · Cyber Mission | New today. Critical Infrastructure Defense Program with 11 founding partners incl. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks; free OSS Scanner. Pre-IPO investor day 14 Oct (Bloomberg). ~$65bn run-rate in July (CNBC, partner sales included). |
- OpenAI’s earlier figure. Most coverage says ~$70bn (Axios, 29 Sep); some says ~$68bn. One analysis argues OpenAI’s own materials put July near $30bn, so “more than 70%” growth lands near $50bn; that July figure has a single source.
- Index closes. Yahoo index data: S&P −0.47% to 7,765.36, Nasdaq −1.25% to 27,193.34. Yahoo’s live-blog wrap says −0.5% / −1.3%. Bloomberg: Nasdaq-100 −1.4%, chip gauge −3.4%. One aggregator’s “October 8” levels (S&P 7,798.14) match Wednesday’s session and were not used.
- WSJ timing. Coverage dates the WSJ financing story to both 7 and 8 October; one relay page carries a July date, which we think is a page error.
- Broadcom financing. WSJ: >$50bn, lenders incl. Apollo and Blackstone. Bloomberg (2 Oct): $60bn in two classes. Possibly the same package.
- GlobalFoundries premarket move. ~4% (Investing.com) vs 4.64% (Rallies).
- SpaceX lock-up. Secondary schedules give ~319–328m shares on 9 Oct; one puts the tranche on 10 Oct.
- US CPI. September CPI is Wed 14 Oct, 08:30 ET, confirmed on the BLS release schedule.
On the calendar
- Fri 9 OctUniversity of Michigan sentiment, preliminary, 10:00 ET. US open 09:30 ET. SpaceX lock-up tranche. Taiwan (National Day, observed) and South Korea (Hangul Day) closed.
- Mon 12 OctTaiwan reopens.
- Tue 13 OctApple smart-home launch reported (Bloomberg); still not confirmed by Apple.
- Wed 14 OctASML third quarter. September CPI, 08:30 ET (BLS). Anthropic pre-IPO investor day (Bloomberg).
- Thu 15 Oct, 02:00 ETTSMC third-quarter results (14:00 Taipei; TSMC IR calendar): gross margin vs 65–67%, capex range, Terafab, GlobalFoundries interposers. Tesla Roadster reveal.
- Fri 16 OctSurface Laptop Ultra (RTX Spark) ships. iPhone Duo pre-orders open.
- Mon 19 OctMicron Taoyuan union rally in Taipei. Trade Desk special meeting on option repricing. Broadcom note exchange offer expires.
- Tue 20 Oct, 16:01 ETNetflix third quarter (company-confirmed). Texas Instruments (aggregator date).
- Wed 21 OctTesla third quarter after the close (Tesla 8-K; webcast 17:30 ET). Lam Research and Intel 21–22 Oct (aggregator dates).
- Sat 24 OctSpaceX lock-up tranche (trades from Mon 26 Oct).
- Wed 28 Oct, 14:00 ETFOMC decision. Megacap earnings cluster 28–29 Oct (est.).
- ~30 OctMediaTek third quarter (financial-calendar listing).
- Tue 3 NovAstera Labs third quarter after the close. Coherent early November (not yet announced).
- Wed 4 NovAppLovin third quarter after the close (company-confirmed). MercadoLibre third quarter (expected; not yet announced).
- Mon 9 NovCoreWeave third quarter (aggregator date).
- Tue 10 Nov, 00:30 ETTSMC October sales (13:30 Taipei; US daylight saving ends 1 Nov).
Story worth owning
OpenAI’s commitments against OpenAI’s revenue, on one consistent definition
Thursday’s sell-off was about a number that changed by $20bn because two labs define “annualized revenue” differently. Nobody re-priced a contract. But every financing being arranged this month (Oracle’s chip-lease vehicle, Broadcom’s >$50bn, CoreWeave’s delayed-draw loans) is ultimately serviced by one customer whose revenue the market has just learned it was measuring on a different definition.
The testable claim: on OpenAI’s own definition, its annual compute commitments already exceed its annualized revenue, and the year-end $70bn target does not close the gap. The work is a single table: each counterparty (Oracle’s reported $300bn over five years, CoreWeave’s up to $22.4bn, Microsoft, Nvidia’s 10 GW, AMD’s 6 GW, Broadcom’s 10 GW), converted to an annual run-rate over its stated term, against $50bn now and $70bn at year-end. Then mark which of those commitments are now financed off the supplier’s balance sheet. Coverage on Thursday reported the $20bn gap; we have not seen anyone independent set OpenAI’s revenue, on its own definition, against the commitments it has to pay. It also builds directly on the run-rate point in our OpenAI initiation.
Sources
- OpenAI annualized revenue at $50bn, far below reports – FT, Investing.com (8 Oct 2026)
- OpenAI’s revenue is reportedly $20 billion less than previously projected, TechCrunch (8 Oct 2026, 14:19 ET)
- OpenAI expects $70 billion in annualized revenue by end of 2026, Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance (8 Oct 2026, 21:43 ET)
- OpenAI’s revenue run rate nears $50 billion, less than reported, Bloomberg (8 Oct 2026)
- Scoop: OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue nears $70B, Axios (29 Sep 2026)
- Oracle stock falls on more debt to fund AI chip buying, OpenAI revenue disclosure, Yahoo Finance (8 Oct 2026, 17:08 ET)
- Oracle stock crashes after OpenAI’s revenue gap, BeInCrypto via Yahoo Finance (8 Oct 2026, 14:41 ET)
- WSJ: Broadcom seeks over $50 billion for OpenAI chips as Oracle, SpaceX chase AI debt deals, investingLive (page date shown as 10 Jul 2026; content relays the October WSJ report)
- Broadcom, Oracle, SpaceX seek financing for AI chip purchases, MarketScreener (Oct 2026)
- TSMC taps GlobalFoundries in $2B U.S. chip deal; GFS shares jump 4%, Yahoo Finance (8 Oct 2026)
- GlobalFoundries to make key AI chip component for TSMC, Reuters via Global Banking & Finance (8 Oct 2026)
- Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq fall for second day as AI trade takes a hit, Yahoo Finance live blog (8 Oct 2026, updated 16:04 ET)
- Daily market outlook, October 9, 2026, Tickmill (9 Oct 2026)
- 2026 holiday schedule (9 Oct National Day, observed), TAIFEX (checked 9 Oct 2026)
- SpaceX lock-up: 911 million shares unlock, Sovereign Magazine (Aug 2026)
- SpaceX post-IPO guide (lock-up schedule), Mission Wealth (Jul 2026)
- CoreWeave $2.6 billion DDTL 5.5 facility (Ex. 99.1), SEC EDGAR (Aug 2026)
- TSMC financial calendar, TSMC IR (checked 6 Oct 2026)
- Costco Wholesale Corporation reports September sales results, Costco IR (7 Oct 2026)
- Costco’s underlying sales growth has slowed 3 months in a row, Motley Fool (4 Oct 2026)
- September 2026 revenue announcement, MediaTek (8 Oct 2026)
- SoftBank shares slide as OpenAI revenue report dents AI optimism, Investing.com (8 Oct 2026, updated 9 Oct)
- Why is Astera Labs stock sliding today?, Investing.com (8 Oct 2026)
- Optics stocks tumble as profit taking cuts into big yearly gains, 24/7 Wall St. (8 Oct 2026)
- Introducing the Anthropic Cyber Mission, Anthropic (8 Oct 2026)
- 2026 Usage Policy update, Anthropic (Oct 2026)
- Palantir stock rises as Goldman turns Buy with $230 target, The Crypto Basic (8 Oct 2026)
- What is going on with AppLovin stock on Thursday?, Benzinga (8 Oct 2026)
- Why is Vistra stock sliding today?, Investing.com (8 Oct 2026)
- Bloom Energy tumbles 8% even as UBS lifts its price target to $350, 24/7 Wall St. (8 Oct 2026)
- Super Micro drops 3% as profit taking unwinds server rally, 24/7 Wall St. (8 Oct 2026)
- SEC company tickers (CIKs for the 50 added names), SEC (checked 9 Oct 2026)
- Prices: Yahoo Finance chart data for all 100 covered names (Infineon via IFX.DE, SoftBank via 9984.T, MediaTek 2454.TW, Samsung 005930.KS), ^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI, ^SOX, ^TNX, 2330.TW, ^TWII, ^N225, ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F, BZ=F and CL=F, pulled 9 Oct 2026, ~06:45 ET. Standing-table figures not updated today are carried from the 8 October brief and the sources cited there.
Figures are as reported by the sources listed and have not been independently verified against filings. The FT and Bloomberg OpenAI figures come from documents and people not named, and OpenAI declined to comment to Bloomberg. The WSJ financing reports are summarised from secondary coverage of a paywalled article and have not been confirmed by Oracle, Broadcom, SpaceX or the lenders. Capex definitions are not comparable across companies.
This brief is published by CoreValue Research for information only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and no part of it should be relied on as such.
Scheduled for 9 October 2026, 06:00 ET · re-run 9 October 2026 on the expanded coverage.json (100 listed names in nine sectors plus two private labs, updated 2026-10-09).
Fact-check. A separate agent re-checked seven claim groups against Investing.com’s FT relay, TechCrunch, Bloomberg via Yahoo, investingLive’s WSJ relay, Reuters on GlobalFoundries, the BLS schedule, Tesla’s 8-K and Yahoo chart data. Confirmed: the OpenAI $50bn/$70bn figures and the definitional explanation, Bloomberg’s year-end target and timestamp, the Oracle/Broadcom/SpaceX financing details, Oracle’s capex, RPO and debt, the GlobalFoundries terms, every close and index move, claims, oil, futures, CPI and Tesla dates, the Taiwan holiday and the 06:00 ET / 3h 30m time math. Applied fixes: CoreWeave is down two sessions, not three; “declined to comment” attributed to Bloomberg; CPI date confirmed on bls.gov; “measuring wrongly” softened to a definitional difference; “40%” restated as $20bn; GlobalFoundries close and the 26 Oct lock-up trading day added; the 45% share of RPO marked as our arithmetic. Re-run on 100 names: a second agent checked the MediaTek, Costco, SoftBank, Astera, Palantir and Anthropic items against MediaTek’s monthly PDFs, Costco’s release, Anthropic’s page and Yahoo data, all confirmed; fixes applied: Armada partnership dated 2 Oct, not 8 Oct; Palantir’s high was $204.44; Coherent and MercadoLibre dates marked unannounced; MercadoLibre notes settled 14 Sep; Vistra’s DOE loan is an announced ~$4.2bn conditional commitment. Not independently confirmed: the WSJ article itself (paywalled; relays only), the ~911m and ~319–328m lock-up share counts, South Korea’s closure and the UMich time (third-party calendars), and CoreWeave’s $22.4bn and the Nvidia/AMD gigawatt figures, which were not re-sourced today.
