The one thing
Marvell raised more than expected, and further out than expected. At its New York investor day it set fiscal 2028 revenue at about $20bn (consensus ~$18.2bn), raised the fiscal 2029 custom-silicon target to more than $12bn (from more than $10bn) and laid out a $70–90bn revenue range for fiscal 2031, with EPS of more than $30 against ~$19 consensus (Investing.com, Stocktwits). The stock dipped ~3% as the event opened, was up as much as ~10%, and closed +5.81% at $287.01. The fiscal 2031 split at the $80bn midpoint is interconnect ~$37.5bn, custom compute ~$30bn, switching and storage ~$10bn, communications ~$2.4bn. Interconnect, not custom XPUs, is the larger line.
The power thread. Google and Constellation announced a 3,590 MW agreement: a 20-year PPA for 890 MW of new nuclear capacity from uprates at 11 units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, funded by more than $4.3bn of Constellation investment with the first uprate in 2028, plus a 15-year supply contract for 2,700 MW from the existing fleet (Google Cloud press release). No price was disclosed. Constellation rose ~12%; GE Vernova +3.96% closed above $1,000 at $1,029.21. With Amazon’s 20-year, 690 MW Calvert Cliffs contract on 30 September, two hyperscalers have signed decade-plus nuclear power commitments within a week, none of it in capex guidance.
Macro. Tuesday: S&P 500 +0.58% to a record 7,818.93, Nasdaq +0.45% to a record 27,599.79, SOX +0.34%. The 10-year eased to 5.27% from 5.31%. Futures at ~06:00–06:10 ET (Yahoo quote data): S&P −0.20%, Nasdaq-100 −0.48%, Dow −0.45%; Brent ~$101.7 (+1.1%), WTI ~$89.8. Kospi −1.98% ahead of Samsung’s preliminary third quarter. FOMC minutes at 14:00 ET.
Sector pulse: covered names with material news
Five of fifty names had news. Semis: Marvell (investor day), AMD (record close, 2027 supply comment, Citi $800). Cloud: Alphabet (Constellation deal), Microsoft (Windows/Surface event today with Jensen Huang). Hardware: Dell (Mizuho $650). GE Vernova’s +4% and the equipment sell-off (KLA −4.5%, Lam −3.4%) were moves without company news, so they are not counted.
Overnight & last session
Semis & equipment
Marvell: ~$20bn fiscal 2028, >$12bn custom in fiscal 2029, $70–90bn in fiscal 2031; stock +5.8%
Targets as reported by Investing.com and Stocktwits/TradingView, which agree on every target: fiscal 2028 revenue ~$20bn (August framing ~$18bn; consensus ~$18.2bn per Investing.com, ~$18.1bn per Stocktwits), of which data centre ~$18bn; fiscal 2029 custom revenue more than $12bn (was more than $10bn); fiscal 2031 revenue $70–90bn (consensus ~$47bn) and EPS more than $30 (consensus ~$19); TAM $400bn by 2030. Within the $80bn fiscal 2031 midpoint: interconnect ~$37.5bn, custom compute ~$30bn, switching and storage ~$10bn, communications and other ~$2.4bn. Raymond James (Strong Buy) said Marvell “substantially raises the ceiling” on its AI opportunity. The expanded Google agreement, filed in an 8-K in August, carries a warrant for ~59m Marvell shares at a $206.58 strike, vesting with Google’s purchases in $500m revenue tranches through fiscal 2033. MRVL closed $287.01, +5.81%; Broadcom +3.67% to $375.81 alongside it.
The read: For our Marvell study, two things matter more than the headline. First, the fiscal 2031 range is $20bn wide, and we have the targets only through press summaries; update the model from the slides, not the coverage. Second, our study already flags that Marvell books customer warrants against revenue. Google’s ~59m-share warrant vests in step with Google’s purchases, so part of the custom ramp is reported net of a stock-based cost to win it. See the Story worth owning.
AMD closes at a record $649.42 as Lisa Su says supply will “substantially increase” in 2027; Citi to $800
AMD rose +2.80% to $649.42, a record close, after an intraday high of ~$649.88. Citi raised its target to $800 from $575. Su said AMD will substantially increase chip supply in 2027 after expanding capacity through 2026, and described demand for AI and computing capacity as “very, very high” for the next several years (Benzinga). The stock is up ~200% this year and first crossed $1tn in market value on 21 September (Korea Times).
The read: “More supply in 2027” is a statement about wafers and packaging AMD has booked, which makes it a TSMC data point as much as an AMD one. In our AMD study, the ~$70bn fiscal 2027 data-centre figure from the call needs exactly this supply; Su’s comment is the first sign it has been secured. No numbers were given, so nothing changes in the model yet.
Equipment sold off on no company news. KLA −4.54% to $197.46, Lam −3.44%, Applied −2.21%, ASML −1.39%. Aggregators tie it to Toshiba’s plan to double hard-drive capacity (which took Seagate −9.2% and Western Digital −6.9% at the close) and to questions over AI-capex durability; neither explanation comes from the companies. Intel fell for a third session on the Terafab reports, −3.18% to $112.50, still with no comment from Intel or TSMC. Micron −1.73%; Synopsys +3.42%. Overnight, SK hynix −2.82%, Samsung −1.29% ahead of its preliminary quarter (consensus operating profit KRW 106.1tn vs 12.17tn a year ago; estimates cut 7.7% since late August, per Investing.com/LSEG). TSMC (2330.TW) flat at NT$2,585 ahead of September sales tomorrow at 01:30 ET.
Cloud & AI infrastructure
Google signs 3,590 MW with Constellation: 890 MW of new nuclear for 20 years plus 2,700 MW for 15 years
The 890 MW comes from uprates across 11 Constellation nuclear units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, backed by more than $4.3bn of Constellation investment; the first uprate is due in 2028. A separate 15-year energy supply agreement covers 2,700 MW from Constellation’s existing fleet in PJM, and a five-year technology alliance puts Google Cloud and Gemini Enterprise into Constellation’s operations. No price was disclosed. Yahoo links the timing to PJM’s proposal that data centres bring their own power or face curtailment at peak. Constellation rose ~12%, Vistra ~11%, NRG ~7%; GE Vernova +3.96% to $1,029.21, its first close above $1,000 since mid-August (CNBC). Alphabet +0.35%.
The read: Bloomberg had flagged a “$1bn-plus” deal on Monday; the announced deal is much larger in megawatts, but its cost to Google is still undisclosed. For our Alphabet study (2026 capex $195–205bn, Q2 FCF −$5.9bn), the 3.6 GW will appear only as a purchase obligation in the 10-K, not in capex. Our GE Vernova study gets the read-across: uprates use existing reactors and turbines, so this is service and grid work, not new gas-turbine orders.
Microsoft’s Windows and Surface event today, with Nadella and Jensen Huang, built around Nvidia’s RTX Spark
Satya Nadella, Windows chief Pavan Davuluri and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang will present “the latest innovations across Windows, NVIDIA RTX Spark, Surface and the broader PC ecosystem” (Thurrott). A Surface Laptop Ultra on Nvidia’s RTX Spark chip is expected, along with a Windows 11 26H2 rollout. MSFT +0.78% to $529.30; NVDA +0.14% to a second record close, $239.24.
The read: An Nvidia Arm-based PC chip in Microsoft’s own flagship is a client-PC story for Nvidia and a share risk for Intel and AMD in premium laptops, and it is pitched against Apple’s Macs. Revenue impact for any of them is small next to data centre; the item for our studies is whether Microsoft or Nvidia gives volumes or pricing, which is unlikely at a launch event.
Also in the cloud group. CoreWeave +4.95% to $91.72 with Nebius, on no company news. Oracle +1.61%, Amazon +1.95% (Prime Big Deal Days end today). Cloudflare −1.25%. OpenAI’s DevDay brought GPT-6.1 Sol at one-fifth of GPT-6 Astra’s token price, and OpenAI will test visual ads during image generation in ChatGPT in the US this month (text ads have been in US testing since February); cheaper tokens and an ad business both bear on what its compute contracts with Oracle, Microsoft and CoreWeave can earn.
Hardware & devices
Dell +3.93% to $574.00 after Mizuho raised its target to $650 from $600 (Outperform), citing $60.9bn of AI orders and a $95bn AI backlog in the last quarter (Investing.com). Cisco +4.54% to $117.94, its best day in weeks; we found no company news, only aggregator commentary on AI networking demand. Apple +0.22%.
SaaS, ads, consumer and space: quiet. Palo Alto +3.23%, CrowdStrike +2.27%; Salesforce −2.09% for a second day to $224.99; Walmart +2.03%, Airbnb −2.24%. No company news found. SpaceX’s next lock-up tranche (~328m shares) releases Friday.
Full-year capex guidance across the build-out
| Company | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Amazon AMZN · CY2026 | ~$220bn |
| Alphabet GOOGL · CY2026 | $195–205bn |
| Microsoft MSFT · CY2026 | ~$175bn |
| Meta META · CY2026 | $130–145bn |
| Oracle ORCL · FY2027 | $90–95bn |
| TSMC TSM · CY2026 | $60–64bn |
| Micron MU · FY27, net, implied | >$50bn |
| CoreWeave CRWV · CY2026 | $35–39bn |
| Intel INTC · CY2026, gross | >$20bn |
Where each name stands
This is a standing table. The last-print column and key figures change only when a name discloses something; otherwise they are carried forward. New today marks rows with company news since yesterday’s brief. Prices are Tuesday 6 October closes from Yahoo Finance chart data. Where we have no figure, the cell is blank.
| Name | Last print | Key figures from it |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | ||
| MRVL | 6 Oct · investor day | New today. FY2028 rev ~$20bn (cons. ~$18.2bn); FY2029 custom >$12bn (was >$10bn); FY2031 rev $70–90bn, EPS >$30; TAM $400bn by 2030 (press summaries). Google warrant ~59m shares. FQ3 guide ~$3.15bn. Closed 6 Oct $287.01, +5.81% |
| AMD | 6 Oct · record close | New today. Su: supply to “substantially increase” in 2027; Citi target $800 (from $575). All-stock World Labs deal ~$8.2bn. Susquehanna: Q3 CPU model share +3.1pts to 29.3%. Call only: FY2027 data-centre revenue ~$70bn. Closed 6 Oct $649.42, +2.80% |
| NVDA | 6 Oct · record close | Second record close; Huang on stage at Microsoft’s event today (RTX Spark). FQ2’27 rev $96.2bn +106%; FQ3 guide $108.0bn ±2%. Closed 6 Oct $239.24, +0.14% |
| TSM | 5 Oct · Terafab talks | No company comment on Terafab. Aug NT$514,806m, +53.3% y/y. 3Q26 guide $44.6–45.8bn, GM 65–67%; 2026 capex $60–64bn. Sep sales 8 Oct 01:30 ET; 3Q26 results 15 Oct 02:00 ET. 2330.TW NT$2,585 (flat) on 7 Oct. ADR: Closed 6 Oct $482.30, −0.72% |
| INTC | 5 Oct · Terafab / Susquehanna | Third daily fall on Terafab reports; no company comment. 14A was Terafab’s only named process (since April). Susquehanna: Q3 CPU model share −3.9pts to 68.1%. Q2’26 rev $16.13bn +25.4%; 2026 capex >$20bn gross. Closed 6 Oct $112.50, −3.18% |
| QCOM | 5 Oct · Huawei licence | First 5G cross-licence with Huawei; terms undisclosed. QTL $1.28bn last quarter. Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 on TSMC 2nm. Closed 6 Oct $181.03, +0.13% |
| AVGO | 2 Oct · $60bn package (reported) | $42bn Class A senior secured + $18bn Class B junior (Blackstone, $9bn own capital) (Bloomberg). Exchange offer expires 19 Oct. FQ3’26 rev $29.591bn +85.5%; AI semis $16.7bn; FQ4 guide ~$34.8bn. Closed 6 Oct $375.81, +3.67% |
| MU | 30 Sep · FQ4’26 | Rev $54.23bn +379%; non-GAAP GM 87.0%; EPS $33.42. FQ1 guide $61.5bn ±$1.5bn, EPS $38.15. 1H FY27 capex ~$25bn, 2H higher. Closed 6 Oct $1,045.56, −1.73% |
| SNPS | 1 Oct · AWS licence | AWS multi-year licence >$1bn. FY26–30: ~15% revenue CAGR, ~50% op. margin by FY30. FY27 guide $11.10–11.20bn. Closed 6 Oct $505.17, +3.42% |
| TXN | 17 Sep · 8-K | Dividend $1.42 → $1.52 (+7%). Q3 20 Oct (aggregator). Closed 6 Oct $297.23, +0.79% |
| AMAT | 8 Sep · Citi TMT | Rolling eight-quarter customer forecasts up every quarter. Closed 6 Oct $530.27, −2.21% |
| KLAC | 22 Sep · DEF 14A | Annual meeting 4 Nov. Call only: CY2026 WFE mid-$150bns. Closed 6 Oct $197.46, −4.54% |
| LRCX | 16 Sep · India plan | INR 10,000 crore India plant. Call only: CY2026 WFE “low $150bns”. Closed 6 Oct $333.89, −3.44% |
| ASML | 8 Sep · releases | High-NA EUV collaborations with Samsung and Intel Foundry. Q3 14 Oct. Closed 6 Oct $1,834.10, −1.39% |
| ARM | 18–21 Sep · SoftBank / Form 4 | SoftBank’s Arm-backed margin loan $25bn. AGI CPU outlook $1bn. Closed 6 Oct $302.56, −0.11% |
| CDNS | Closed 6 Oct $359.55, +1.72% | |
| Cloud & AI infrastructure | ||
| GOOGL | 6 Oct · Constellation | New today. 3,590 MW with Constellation: 890 MW new nuclear (20-yr PPA, >$4.3bn CEG investment, first uprate 2028) + 2,700 MW (15-yr); price undisclosed. Q2’26 cloud +82%, FCF −$5.9bn. 2026 capex $195–205bn. Closed 6 Oct $347.68, +0.35% |
| MSFT | 7 Oct · Windows/Surface event | New today. Event 13:00 ET with Nadella and Huang; Surface Laptop Ultra on RTX Spark expected. FY2026 revenue >$331bn +18%; Azure >$100bn +41%. CY2026 capex ~$175bn. Closed 6 Oct $529.30, +0.78% |
| GEV | 1 Oct · Evercore | Rallied on the Google–Constellation deal; first close above $1,000 since mid-August. Backlog $176bn at Q2. Closed 6 Oct $1,029.21, +3.96% |
| AMZN | 2 Oct · “Built Together” | >$1bn over five years to data-centre communities; 20-year 690 MW Calvert Cliffs PPA. Q2’26 net sales $200.6bn +20%, AWS $42.2bn +37%. 2026 capex ~$220bn. Closed 6 Oct $256.29, +1.95% |
| CRWV | 5 Oct · Truist | Truist Buy, $165: ~37.5% cumulative price increase since July; 70% of Q2 deals with prepayments. Q2’26 rev $2,575m +112%; backlog $104.2bn; CY2026 capex $35–39bn. Closed 6 Oct $91.72, +4.95% |
| ORCL | 29 Sep · Fusion Claw | OpenAI raising $30bn at $1.4tn (Bloomberg). Jupiter force majeure (24 Sep). FQ1’27 rev $19.3bn +30%; RPO $664bn. Closed 6 Oct $144.77, +1.61% |
| NET | 29 Sep · Birthday Week | Public certificate authority with GlobalSign root keys. Closed 6 Oct $355.01, −1.25% |
| VRT | 2 Sep · M&A | UtilityInnovation Group, ~$1.45bn + up to $1.15bn earnout. Closed 6 Oct $253.14, −0.19% |
| SaaS & enterprise software | ||
| SNOW | 29 Sep · converts | $3.75bn 0% converts (2029, 2031). Product revenue $1.49bn +37%; FY outlook ~$6.07bn. Closed 6 Oct $335.95, −0.90% |
| MDB | 29 Sep · investor day | 3-year framework: revenue growth >20%; buyback +$1bn to $2bn; FY27 guide $2.99–3.03bn. Closed 6 Oct $360.71, +0.41% |
| WDAY | 29 Sep · restructuring | ~2.5% of staff cut; charges $65–80m; FY27 guidance reaffirmed. Closed 6 Oct $186.55, −1.28% |
| CRM | 16 Sep · investor day | FY2030 revenue >$63bn incl. Informatica. Closed 6 Oct $224.99, −2.09% |
| ADBE | 22 Sep · 10-Q | Q3 rev $6.76bn; RPO ~$22.16bn; FY guide $26.576–26.626bn. Closed 6 Oct $238.12, −0.28% |
| NOW | 22 Jul · Q2’26 | Subscription growth 24–25%; AI ACV $1bn. Closed 6 Oct $137.97, +1.39% |
| HUBS | Closed 6 Oct $217.09, −1.60% | |
| DDOG | 10 Sep · Wedbush | Q2’26 rev ~$1.12bn +36%. Closed 6 Oct $278.24, +0.66% |
| SAP | 8 Sep · press | Closed 6 Oct $210.46, +1.31% |
| PANW | 1 Sep · FQ4/FY26 | Q4 rev $3.41bn +34%; NGS ARR $9.10bn +63%; FY27 guide $14.10–14.20bn. Closed 6 Oct $419.91, +3.23% |
| CRWD | 14 Sep · Fal.Con | FQ3 guide $1.523–1.529bn; joins CoreWeave Partner Network (30 Sep). Closed 6 Oct $278.86, +2.27% |
| Ads & adtech | ||
| META | 28–30 Sep · launches / rival | Muse privacy dispute. Q2’26 rev $60.801bn +28%; 2026 capex $130–145bn. OpenAI testing visual ads in ChatGPT (US, this month). Closed 6 Oct $738.88, −0.41% |
| ZETA | 30 Sep · William Blair | On William Blair’s Analyst Conviction List. Closed 6 Oct $32.95, +0.21% |
| TTD | 18 Sep · DEF 14A | Special meeting 19 Oct on option repricing. Closed 6 Oct $11.92, −0.50% |
| ROKU | 17 Sep · 425 | DOJ Second Request on $22bn Fox deal. Closed 6 Oct $152.06, −0.88% |
| NFLX | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | Q3 20 Oct, 16:01 ET (company-confirmed). Closed 6 Oct $68.69, +1.76% |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | ||
| SHOP | 5 Oct · Piper Sandler | Piper OW, $180: agentic shopping driving migrations; models 32% revenue growth by 2027 vs 26% consensus. Checkout opened to browser-based AI agents (28 Sep). Closed 6 Oct $164.44, +2.70% |
| WMT | 25 Sep · CEO letter | CEO letter rules out AI-driven individual pricing. Closed 6 Oct $107.20, +2.03% |
| ABNB | 8 Sep · session | Q2’26 revenue $3.6bn +17%. Closed 6 Oct $160.39, −2.24% |
| BKNG | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | Closed 6 Oct $157.63, −0.44% |
| UBER | 21 Sep · NYSE CERT | Sold 29,369,611 Aurora shares at $6.205 (17 Sep). Closed 6 Oct $69.08, −0.58% |
| Hardware & devices | ||
| DELL | 6 Oct · Mizuho | New today. Mizuho Outperform, target $650 (from $600). $5bn senior notes (15 Sep). FQ2’27 rev $47.0bn +58%; AI orders $60.9bn; backlog $95.0bn; FY27 rev guide ~$192bn. Closed 6 Oct $574.00, +3.93% |
| AAPL | 5 Oct · Gurman | Special event reported for 13 Oct (smart-home hub, HomePod mini, Apple TV); not confirmed by Apple. iPhone Duo pre-orders 16 Oct. Closed 6 Oct $333.63, +0.22% |
| CSCO | 9 Sep | Middle East AI partnership with AMD reported. Closed 6 Oct $117.94, +4.54% |
| Space & mobility | ||
| SPCX | 5 Oct · Morgan Stanley | MS OW, $300; Starship Flight 15 late Oct/early Nov. Google pays $920m/month from Oct 2026 to Jun 2029; 90-day termination right after 31 Dec. Lock-up tranches 9 Oct (~328m shares) and 24 Oct, 8 Dec. Closed 6 Oct $171.92, +0.49% |
| TSLA | 3 Oct · Terafab | Terafab (Tesla/SpaceX) in talks with TSMC; phase 1 ~$16.8bn. Q3 deliveries 486,532. Roadster reveal 15 Oct. Q2’26 FCF −$1.09bn. Closed 6 Oct $380.68, +0.51% |
- Marvell’s move. Stocktwits has “nearly 10%” (intraday) and ~7% at publication; the close was +5.81% (Yahoo chart data, Investing.com). We use the close. One search summary also gave older fiscal 2028 targets ($16.5bn, $18bn); those are the June and August framings, superseded on Tuesday.
- Google–Constellation size. Bloomberg’s Monday report said “$1bn or more”; the announcement gives >$4.3bn of Constellation investment and no contract value. These measure different things; Google’s cost is not disclosed.
- Equipment sell-off. One aggregator has Lam “roughly 6%” lower; the close was −3.44%. The Toshiba hard-drive explanation comes from aggregators, not from the companies.
- Cisco and Dell. 24/7 Wall St. has Cisco +4.21% to $118.31 and Investing.com has Dell +4.7% in morning trade; closes were +4.54% to $117.94 and +3.93% to $574.00 (Yahoo).
- CoreWeave. One search summary gave a close of $95.61, −2.88%; Yahoo chart data has $91.72, +4.95%, matching another report of ~$92. We use Yahoo.
- Dow close. 51,521.04 (Zacks via Yahoo) vs 51,521.28 (Substack recap). Immaterial.
- Futures. Our Yahoo quote pull and the Yahoo live page (~06:00–06:10 ET) have S&P −0.20%, Nasdaq-100 −0.48%, Dow −0.45%; the fact-check read 06:00 ET bars at −0.10% / −0.38% / −0.28%, and Yahoo’s text calls S&P futures “roughly flat”. Direction agrees; levels moved within the hour.
- Samsung consensus. LSEG SmartEstimate KRW 106.1tn; FnGuide ~106.9tn; another compilation 108.1tn. We quote LSEG.
On the calendar
- Wed 7 OctUS open 09:30 ET. Microsoft Windows/Surface event 13:00 ET (10:00 PT; Nadella, Davuluri, Huang). Minutes of the September FOMC at 14:00 ET. Applied Digital reports (time not confirmed). Prime Big Deal Days end.
- Thu 8 Oct, 01:30 ETTSMC September sales (13:30 Taipei; TSMC IR calendar), completing 3Q26 against the $44.6–45.8bn guide. Samsung third-quarter preliminary results on 8 October Seoul time (consensus operating profit KRW 106.1tn); exact time not confirmed.
- Fri 9 OctSpaceX lock-up tranche (~328m shares).
- Tue 13 OctApple special event: smart-home hub, HomePod mini, Apple TV (Gurman/Bloomberg; not confirmed by Apple).
- Wed 14 OctASML third quarter. Anthropic pre-IPO investor day (Bloomberg).
- Thu 15 Oct, 02:00 ETTSMC third-quarter results (14:00 Taipei; TSMC IR calendar): Terafab, capex range and 2027 pricing. Tesla Roadster reveal.
- Fri 16 OctiPhone Duo pre-orders open.
- Mon 19 OctTrade Desk special meeting on option repricing. Broadcom note exchange offer expires.
- Tue 20 Oct, 16:01 ETNetflix third quarter (company-confirmed). Texas Instruments (aggregator date).
- 21–22 Oct (est.)Lam Research FQ1’27 and Intel third quarter (aggregator dates).
- Sat 24 OctSpaceX lock-up tranche.
- Late Oct – early NovSpaceX Starship Flight 15 (Morgan Stanley’s timing; no date from SpaceX).
- Wed 28 Oct, 14:00 ETFOMC decision. Megacap earnings cluster 28–29 Oct (est.). Samsung full Q3 results 29 Oct (tentative).
- Mon 9 NovCoreWeave third quarter (aggregator date). Anthropic IPO marketing could start this week (Bloomberg).
- Tue 10 Nov, 00:30 ETTSMC October sales (13:30 Taipei; US daylight saving ends 1 Nov).
- Thu 12 NovFoxconn full third-quarter results.
Story worth owning
Paying customers in stock: how much of the custom-silicon ramp is net of warrants
Marvell’s new targets put fiscal 2029 custom revenue above $12bn and fiscal 2031 custom compute near $30bn. Its largest new program, Google, came with a warrant for ~59m Marvell shares that vests as Google buys, in $500m revenue tranches through fiscal 2033. Under US GAAP, consideration paid to a customer is booked as a reduction of revenue, and our Marvell study already shows Marvell does this. The same structure runs through our coverage: Amazon’s warrants in Qualcomm, customer warrants deducted from revenue at Cerebras, and the AMD–OpenAI warrant signed in October 2025. The contra-revenue is measured once, at the grant-date fair value (ASU 2019-08), so Tuesday’s rally does not change the reported charge. It does change what Google stands to receive: at the $206.58 strike and a $287.01 close, the ~59m shares are worth roughly $4.7bn above strike.
The testable claim: the warrant’s grant-date value, spread across the revenue tranches it vests against, is a material discount to the custom gross margin Marvell reports on the Google program. The work is to take the warrant terms from Marvell’s 10-Q exhibits, value the tranches against the revenue schedule implied by the targets, and compare reported custom revenue with revenue before the contra entry. Do the same for Qualcomm–Amazon and AMD–OpenAI, and the result is a cross-company table of what the largest buyers are being paid, in their suppliers’ stock, to sign. Investor-day coverage so far has quoted the revenue ranges; we have not seen anyone independent price the warrants against them.
Sources
- Marvell Technology stock rallies following ambitious investor day targets, Investing.com (6 Oct 2026)
- Marvell Investor Day: MRVL stock rockets as firm lays out path to up to $90B by fiscal 2031, Stocktwits via TradingView (6 Oct 2026)
- Marvell Investor Day 2026, Marvell IR (checked 7 Oct 2026)
- Google and Constellation announce landmark agreement to bring 890 MW of new nuclear capacity to PJM, Google Cloud press corner (6 Oct 2026)
- Constellation, Google strike 890-MW nuclear deal in PJM, Utility Dive (6 Oct 2026)
- Google enters massive 3.6-GW power deal with Constellation Energy, Yahoo Finance (6 Oct 2026)
- What’s behind an ‘explosion of buying’ Tuesday, including the rally in GE Vernova, CNBC (6 Oct 2026)
- The S&P 500 closes at a record 7,818.93, Google signs a 3,590-megawatt power deal, The Wall Street Republic (6 Oct 2026)
- AMD stock hits all-time high at 648.11 USD, Investing.com (6 Oct 2026)
- Advanced Micro Devices stock hits record high on PT hike, Schaeffer’s (6 Oct 2026)
- AMD’s monster 2026 rally gets fresh fuel from Lisa Su’s 2027 AI supply push, Benzinga (6 Oct 2026)
- Why is Dell Technologies stock rallying today?, Investing.com (6 Oct 2026)
- Western Digital sinks 6% as Toshiba’s drive expansion hits the group, 24/7 Wall St. (6 Oct 2026)
- Microsoft to hold Surface and Windows event on October 7, Thurrott (2026)
- Watch Microsoft Windows and Surface event on October 7, 2026, ElevenForum (2026; event time)
- Samsung Q3 earnings preview: record profit expected but margin outlook in focus, Investing.com (6 Oct 2026)
- OpenAI DevDay 2026 recap for developers, InfoQ (Oct 2026)
- AI news today, October 7 (OpenAI visual ads in ChatGPT), AI Weekly (7 Oct 2026)
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures steady after tech rally, Yahoo Finance (7 Oct 2026, ~06:00 ET)
- Stock market news for Oct 7, 2026, Zacks via Yahoo Finance (7 Oct 2026)
- SpaceX lock-up release stokes supply concerns, InsiderFinance (2026)
- Marvell and Google expand custom silicon partnership, Evertiq (20 Aug 2026)
- AMD joins $1 trillion club, Korea Times (22 Sep 2026)
- Constellation and Amazon announce 20-year PPA at Calvert Cliffs, Constellation (30 Sep 2026)
- TSMC financial calendar, TSMC IR (checked 6 Oct 2026)
- Prices: Yahoo Finance chart data for all 50 covered names, ^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^SOX, ^TNX, 2330.TW, ^TWII, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, ^KS11, ^N225, ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F, BZ=F and CL=F, pulled 7 Oct 2026, ~06:10 ET. Standing-table figures not updated today are carried from the 6 October brief and the sources cited there.
Figures are as reported by the sources listed and have not been independently verified against filings. Marvell’s targets are taken from press summaries of the investor day, not from the company’s slides. The Google–Constellation terms are from the companies’ release; no price was disclosed. Capex definitions are not comparable across companies.
This brief is published by CoreValue Research for information only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and no part of it should be relied on as such.
Scheduled for 7 October 2026, 06:00 ET · coverage universe read from coverage.json (50 names, updated 2026-09-01).
Fact-check. A separate agent re-checked eleven claim groups against the Google Cloud release, the TSMC IR calendar, Investing.com, Schaeffer’s, Thurrott, InfoQ and Yahoo chart data. Confirmed: every Marvell target and the close, all Google–Constellation terms and the CEG/VST/NRG/GEV moves, AMD, Dell, the Microsoft event time, index closes, Samsung consensus, the equipment and Intel moves, the OpenAI items, the TSMC times and the 06:00 ET / 3h 30m time math. Applied fixes: the Google–Marvell agreement dates from August (not July) and its warrant strike ($206.58) is added; AMD first crossed $1tn on 21 September (not 28th); Amazon’s Calvert Cliffs deal is dated 30 September and no longer called “multi-GW”; Seagate/WDC now use closes; the Story no longer claims the rally raises the booked warrant cost (ASU 2019-08 fixes it at grant date). Not independently confirmed: the 06:00 ET futures levels (see above) and the SpaceX lock-up size (secondary sources only).
