The one thing
Nothing changed in the AI demand data yesterday. What changed was the rate you discount it at. The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 15bp to 5.11% from 4.96%, its highest since 2007 — a 19-year high. The five-year broke 5% for the first time since 2007, closing near 5.031%. Three things did it at once: the S&P Global flash US composite PMI came in at 58.4, the highest since July 2021; oil rose (Brent around $98); and the five-year auction stopped at 5.033% with the second-biggest tail on record and a bid-to-cover of 2.212, the weakest since December 2018. With hawkish Fed commentary alongside it, the market now puts roughly 70% odds on an October rate hike. The S&P 500 fell 0.75% to 7,706.03, the Nasdaq 1.13% to 26,936.04, the Dow 0.68% to 51,511.59.
The ranking inside the coverage list is the story. The names that fell most are the ones whose value sits furthest out and is most debt-financed: Alphabet −3.80%, Oracle −3.11%, Broadcom −2.62%, Amazon −2.24%, Micron −2.22%. Nvidia fell 1.47%, ending a six-day run. Microsoft, the one hyperscaler still funding capex out of cash flow, rose 0.52%. Oracle’s fall lands on top of an FT report that about $18bn of loans tied to an Oracle-leased New Mexico data centre are quoted at 89–91 cents. AI-linked issuers already pay about 115bp over Treasuries against 78bp for investment grade overall; now the Treasury leg underneath that spread has moved too.
Meta went the other way. It closed +1.02% at $744.10 on Connect day, announcing Meta VR Glasses for spring 2027 at $1,299, a Muse Charm keychain and Muse itself, which reportedly passed 2.8m downloads in 12 days. JPMorgan took its target to $920. This morning the market is taking it back: Meta is −1.89% pre-market at $730.00, and every large covered name except CoreWeave is lower. The single most useful thing to watch into the 10:30 BRT open is whether the 10-year holds 5.10%.
Sector pulse: covered names with material news
Five of fifty names had company news. Counted: Qualcomm (two new flagship SoCs at Snapdragon Summit), Oracle and Alphabet (both fell more than 3% on identifiable reports, not just the tape), Meta (Connect keynote), SpaceX (328.4m-share lock-up unlock today). A price move with no identified company news does not count, which is why Booking’s −5.07% and Shopify’s −3.66% — both second-day moves on Monday’s Muse theme — and ServiceNow’s +2.76% are left out. This is a rate-driven session, not a news-driven one, and the brief is short accordingly.
Overnight & last session
Semis & equipment
Qualcomm breaks its nine-year cadence and launches two flagship SoCs at once, both on 2nm
Qualcomm announced the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and a higher tier, the Snapdragon 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6. Qualcomm has confirmed that both are fabricated by TSMC on its 2nm process, with an Oryon CPU configured as two prime cores at about 5GHz and six performance cores at about 4GHz. Qualcomm claims roughly 10% more CPU performance and 37% better power efficiency for the Gen 6 against the Gen 5, and about 13% more CPU performance for the Extreme. Nine OEM partners are named — HONOR, iQOO, Motorola, OnePlus, OPPO, Redmi, RedMagic, vivo and Xiaomi — with first devices in 4Q26 and the broader Android wave in early 2027. For nine years Qualcomm has shipped one flagship a year; this breaks that. The shares still closed −0.52% at $197.24 and are −1.40% pre-market.
The read: Two flagship tiers instead of one is a pricing decision dressed as a product decision. It lets Qualcomm hold a premium ASP at the top while the Gen 6 absorbs the volume — which matters because its bill of materials is rising on two fronts at once: TSMC 2nm wafers (TSMC’s own guidance has sub-5nm prices rising for four consecutive years from January 2026) and memory, where DDR5 contract prices have roughly doubled. For her Qualcomm study, the test is whether the Extreme tier is margin defence or margin expansion: model it as a mix shift and see how much ASP uplift is needed just to hold gross margin flat against 2nm plus memory. Because Qualcomm named the foundry, this is also a hard TSMC N2 volume datapoint — two flagship mobile SoCs, nine OEMs, devices in 4Q26 — ahead of the 8 October monthly sales print and the 15 October third-quarter results. Note the market did not pay for any of it: the stock fell on a day the 10-year moved 15bp, which tells you what is setting prices this week.
Otherwise the sector traded on rates, not news. Micron fell 2.22% to $1,071.88, giving back part of a memory-led run — the SOX had risen more than 14% in the five sessions to Tuesday, led by Micron, AMD, Nvidia, Intel and Meta, and fell about 1% on Wednesday. Nvidia −1.47% to $225.51 ended a six-day winning streak; AMD −1.47% to $614.61, still above the $1trn market-cap mark it crossed this month; Broadcom −2.62% to $354.99; TSMC’s ADR −1.20% to $446.57. Micron reports fiscal 4Q26 on 30 September. No covered equipment name disclosed anything.
Cloud & AI infrastructure
Oracle falls 3.1% with $18bn of data-centre loans quoted at 89–91 cents and 21,000 jobs already cut this year
Oracle closed at $144.56, −3.11%, and is down another 1.22% pre-market. The FT reported that about $18bn of loans tied to an Oracle-leased data centre in New Mexico are being quoted by syndicate banks at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar. Separately, Oracle has cut about 21,000 jobs in 2026, with a restructuring programme costed at roughly $2.8bn, and further cuts reported to reach the cloud infrastructure organisation itself. The backdrop from the 1Q FY2027 print on 10 September is unchanged and enormous: revenue $19.3bn (+30%), OCI $7.4bn (+121%), RPO $664bn (up $209bn year on year), quarterly capex $28.5bn against a net cash outlay of $18.0bn, and FY2027 guidance of at least $90bn of revenue. FY2026 free cash flow was negative $23.7bn; total liabilities rose from $147.4bn to $218.7bn in one year.
The read: Loans at 89–91 cents are not a default signal, but they are a price signal, and they price the lease, not Oracle. That is the distinction worth publishing. Oracle’s RPO is an asset on nobody’s balance sheet; the capacity needed to deliver it is financed by third parties whose paper is now marked below par. For her Oracle study — already rolled to FY2026 plus FY1Q27 — the chapter that matters is not RPO growth, it is the gap between the $28.5bn of gross quarterly capex and the $18.0bn net outlay. That $10.5bn difference is customer prepayments and financing arrangements: someone else is funding it, and yesterday the market repriced what that funding costs. Layoffs at 21,000 in a year, aimed explicitly at freeing cash, are what it looks like when a company with a $664bn order book is short of cash today.
Alphabet drops 3.8%, the worst of the megacaps, on agent disruption plus the $195–205bn capex line
Alphabet closed at $337.83, −3.80% (ad-hoc-news and TradingKey both give −3.73% and a $338.00 close; see the disagreements note). Coverage attributes the fall to three things at once: the continuing sell-off in names seen as exposed to Meta’s Muse agent, which reportedly passed 2.8m downloads in 12 days and took the top of the US App Store; cheaper frontier models from Anthropic and OpenAI compressing the price of inference; and its own 2026 capex guidance of $195–205bn, raised at the 22 July second-quarter print, on the quarter in which Alphabet’s free cash flow turned negative for the first time. Alphabet raised $84.75bn of equity in June. Note the coverage.json caveat: Alphabet sits in this sector for AI-infrastructure framing, but roughly 75% of revenue is advertising, so read it in both places.
The read: Alphabet is the name where the two threads meet, and that is why it fell hardest. Search is the revenue an agent most plausibly disintermediates, and the AI build-out is what it is spending to defend it — so a rate move raises the cost of the defence on the same day a competitor’s product raises doubt about the asset. The publishable framing for her Digital Ads study: Alphabet is now paying $195–205bn a year to protect a query stream that a rival’s free app is trying to intercept, and it funded part of that with the largest equity raise of the cycle rather than debt. Track whether the equity route repeats. If Alphabet keeps issuing shares while Oracle’s lessors’ paper trades at 90 cents, that is two companies telling you two different things about what they think the cost of capital is.
CoreWeave was the one covered name to close green in the sector, +0.16% at $86.90, and is +1.27% pre-market at $88.00 — notable for the most levered name on the list on the day yields hit a 19-year high. Its $4.2bn 2.875% convertible due 1 April 2033 — announced at $3.0bn on 17 September, priced upsized to $3.7bn on 18 September, closed with the $500m option on 22 September — needs no refinancing for years, which is part of why. Microsoft rose 0.52% to $500.59, the only large hyperscaler up on the day. Amazon −2.24% to $249.27; Vertiv −1.85% to $248.78; GE Vernova +0.16% to $951.82; Cloudflare −0.19% to $352.33. No company disclosures from any of them.
SaaS & enterprise software
Quiet. No covered name disclosed anything. The sector actually outperformed: ServiceNow rose 2.76% to $140.78 and Salesforce 1.84% to $237.58, on no company news we can find — which is the opposite of what a 15bp rate move usually does to long-duration software, and worth a second look if it repeats today. ServiceNow and Cloudflare are expected in the last week of October, though neither has announced a date.
Ads & adtech
Meta Connect: VR glasses at $1,299 for spring 2027, a Muse keychain in December, and a target raised to $920
Meta closed +1.02% at $744.10, up on a day the Nasdaq fell 1.13%, then gave it back overnight: −1.89% pre-market at $730.00. The keynote announced Meta VR Glasses at $1,299, about 100g, driven by hand gestures, eye tracking and voice with a tethered puck (Touch Plus controllers optional), shipping spring 2027; Ray-Ban Meta Gen 3 at $449; a camera-free Ray-Ban Meta Audio at $349, shipping 13 October; a Muse Charm keychain device shipping in December; and more than 100 AI-glasses styles across Ray-Ban, Oakley and Meta frames by the end of 2026. Holographic Codec-Avatar calls into WhatsApp and Zoom were demonstrated. Meta AI is now branded Muse, and the number circulating is 2.8m downloads in 12 days — still a reported figure, not one Meta published. JPMorgan raised its target to $920, calling Muse the “potential to become the top AI application since ChatGPT”; Citizens went to $885. Meta’s own 2026 capex guidance is $130–145bn.
The read: Meta gave the market prices and dates but not a P&L. The hardware now has a real near-term ladder — $349 audio glasses on 13 October, the Muse Charm in December, then the $1,299 headset in spring 2027 — but the thing that moved the stock, Muse, still has no disclosed revenue model: no take rate on the Shopify checkout, no ad load, no subscription. The gap between an analyst target of $920 and a stock that fell 1.9% overnight is the market pricing that absence. For her Digital Ads study, the clean question to answer before anyone else does: Meta is spending $130–145bn this year and has now committed to a consumer hardware line, while the thing that moved the stock — Muse — is the only part with no disclosed economics. Ask what Muse has to earn per user to justify one quarter of that capex. The arithmetic is publishable on its own.
Netflix fell 1.11% to $71.36, down roughly 20% this year, with no fresh company news; it reports 3Q26 on 20 October. The Trade Desk, Zeta and Roku disclosed nothing.
Consumer platforms & commerce
No company news, but the largest single move on the coverage list: Booking fell 5.07% to $155.90, a second day in the agent-disruption trade after Goldman named it in a “consumer inertia” basket on Tuesday, and now within a few dollars of its 52-week low of $150.14. Shopify fell 3.66% to $142.34, giving back roughly half of the two-day 15% gain it made on the Muse checkout tie-up. The pair moving in the same direction for the first time this week is the point: on Monday and Tuesday the market treated Shopify as the winner and Booking as the loser from the same product. Yesterday it sold both.
Hardware & devices
Quiet, and defensive. Apple fell 0.80% to $337.02, approaching a $5trn market cap; Dell rose 0.17% to $549.83 after Tuesday’s 4.6% fall, and is −1.79% pre-market. No disclosures from Apple, Dell or Cisco.
Space & mobility
SpaceX falls 4% into today’s 328m-share unlock, with the COO filing to sell $52m
SpaceX closed at $148.36, −4.11% (TradingKey gives −3.40%; see disagreements), ahead of a lock-up tranche releasing up to 328.4m shares today. President and COO Gwynne Shotwell filed a Form 144 to sell about $52m of stock. The lock-up unwinds in stages — 9 and 24 September, 9 and 24 October, 8 December — while Musk’s holding of more than 6bn shares stays locked until June 2027. Starship Flight 14 is targeted for Monday 28 September, pending regulatory approval. Company financials remain unusual: trailing revenue $23.04bn (+121.9%) against net income of −$8.89bn, on a $2.01trn market capitalisation.
The read: This is supply, not information — but for the SpaceX study it is the first real test of a float that has barely traded. The IPO was 12 June; the first 10-Q came 4 August; there is no pre-1Q26 quarterly history at all, and every consolidated figure before February 2026 is a pro-forma recast for the xAI and X common-control mergers. So the market has no long price series and no long fundamental series to anchor on, and it is about to absorb 328m shares into that vacuum. Watch what the stock does over the next three unlock dates, because that path — not the reported financials — is what any valuation section will have to reason from. Tesla, meanwhile, rose 0.32% to $380.12 with the Roadster reveal on 1 October and reservations reopened at a $50,000 deposit.
Full-year capex guidance across the build-out
| Company | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Amazon AMZN · CY2026 | ~$220bn |
| Alphabet GOOGL · CY2026 | $195–205bn |
| Microsoft MSFT · CY2026 | ~$175bn |
| Meta META · CY2026 | $130–145bn |
| Oracle ORCL · FY2027 | $90–95bn |
| TSMC TSM · CY2026 | $60–64bn |
| CoreWeave CRWV · CY2026 | $35–39bn |
| Micron MU · FY26, net | ~$27bn |
| Intel INTC · CY2026, gross | >$20bn |
Where each name stands
A standing table. The last-print column and key figures change only when a name discloses something; otherwise they are carried forward. New today marks rows with news or a move of 2% or more on Wednesday. Closes are Wednesday 23 September where we obtained them; where no 23 September close is shown, the cell is left blank rather than estimated.
| Name | Last print | Key figures from it |
|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | ||
| QCOM | 22–23 Sep · Summit | New today. Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6, both 2nm; Oryon 2×~5GHz + 6×~4GHz; +10% CPU / +37% efficiency (Gen 6), +13% CPU (Extreme); 9 OEMs, devices 4Q26. 8 Sep 8-K: Amazon warrant 25,000,000 shares at $161.26, 3,750,000 vested. Closed 23 Sep $197.24, −0.52% |
| AVGO | 18 Sep · 424B3 | New today (price only). Registered exchange of $654,004,000 4.926% notes due 2037 (expires 19 Oct). FQ3’26: rev $29.591bn +85.5%; AI semis $16.7bn +221%; non-GAAP EPS $3.32; FQ4 guide ~$34.8bn. Closed 23 Sep $354.99, −2.62% |
| MU | 21 Sep · Korea exports | New today (price only). FQ3’26 (to 28 May): rev $41,456m, +346% y/y and +74% q/q; non-GAAP GM 84.9%; GAAP NI $28.24bn / $24.67 diluted; non-GAAP $28.86bn / $25.11. FQ4 guide $50.0bn ±$1.0bn at ~86% GM. Closed 23 Sep $1,071.88, −2.22%. FQ4 + full FY2026 on 30 Sep (company-confirmed) |
| NVDA | 17 Sep · Nebius pricing | New today (price only). FQ2’27: rev $96.2bn +106%; data centre $89.0bn +117%; FQ3 guide $108.0bn ±2%. Closed 23 Sep $225.51, −1.47%, ending a six-day run |
| AMD | 17 Sep · Nebius pricing | Crossed $1trn market cap this month. Call only: FY2027 data-centre revenue ~$70bn. Closed 23 Sep $614.61, −1.47% |
| TSM | 10 Sep · Aug monthly | NT$514,806m, +53.3% y/y; Jan–Aug NT$3,386,870m, +39.3%. 3Q26 guide $44.6–45.8bn. Call only: 2026 capex $60–64bn (raised from $52–56bn in Jan); FY26 revenue growth outlook “slightly above 40%”. ADR 23 Sep $446.57, −1.20%. Sep sales 8 Oct, 02:30 BRT; 3Q26 results 15 Oct (company calendar) |
| MRVL | 27 Aug · FQ2’27 | Rev $2.739bn +37%; data centre $2.171bn +46%; FQ3 guide ~$3.15bn. Won a Google custom-AI-chip programme (reported 19 Aug). Investor day 6 Oct |
| INTC | 15–16 Sep · reports | Altera confidential IPO filing (Intel 49%). Q2’26: rev $16.13bn +25.4%; 2026 capex >$20bn gross |
| ARM | 18 Sep · 6-K | UK Annual Report FY to 31 Mar 2026. AGI CPU official outlook $1bn; CEO “more confident” of $2bn |
| LRCX | 16 Sep · India plan | INR 10,000 crore (~$1.0–1.2bn) India silicon-component plant. Call only: CY2026 WFE “low $150bns” |
| KLAC | 22 Sep · DEF 14A | Proxy filed; annual meeting 4 Nov, 12:00 PST. Call only: CY2026 WFE mid-$150bns |
| ASML | 8 Sep · releases | High-NA EUV collaborations with Samsung and Intel Foundry. Q3 results 14 Oct (data-provider date) |
| AMAT | 8 Sep · Citi TMT | Call only: rolling eight-quarter customer forecasts up every quarter |
| TXN | 17 Sep · 8-K | Quarterly dividend $1.42 → $1.52 (+7%), subject to October declaration |
| CDNS | 16 Sep · session | |
| SNPS | 16 Sep · session | |
| Cloud & AI infrastructure | ||
| GOOGL | 23 Sep · session | New today. Fell on Muse disruption fears, cheaper Anthropic/OpenAI frontier models and capex. 21 Sep: €403m GDPR fine. Q2’26: cloud +82%, FCF −$5.9bn (first negative quarter). Call only: 2026 capex $195–205bn. Raised $84.75bn of equity in June. Closed 23 Sep $337.83, −3.80% |
| ORCL | 18 Sep · FT report | New today. ~$18bn of loans on an Oracle-leased New Mexico data centre quoted at 89–91c. ~21,000 jobs cut in 2026; ~$2.8bn restructuring. FQ1’27 (to 31 Aug): rev $19.3bn +30%; cloud $11.6bn +62%; IaaS $7.4bn +121%; RPO $664bn (+$209bn y/y, +$26bn q/q); GAAP EPS $1.56; capex $28,499m, net outlay $18.0bn. FY27 guide ≥$90bn revenue, non-GAAP EPS $8.10; capex $90–95bn. FY2026 FCF −$23.7bn. Closed 23 Sep $144.56, −3.11% |
| AMZN | 20–21 Sep · Muse block | New today (price only). Blocked Meta’s Muse agent from its retail site. Q2’26: net sales $200.6bn +20%, AWS $42.2bn +37%. Call only: 2026 capex ~$220bn. Closed 23 Sep $249.27, −2.24% |
| CRWV | 22 Sep · 8-K | Convertible closed: $4.2bn 2.875% due 2033 ($3.7bn base + $500m option); conversion ~$97.85; net $4,137.0m; capped call $566.2m, cap $199.70. Sequence: $3.0bn deal + 35m-share ATM announced 17 Sep (stock −4.2% to $79.88), priced upsized to $3.7bn 18 Sep, closed 22 Sep. Q2’26: rev $2,575m +112%; backlog $104.2bn; CY2026 capex $35–39bn. Closed 23 Sep $86.90, +0.16% |
| MSFT | 22 Sep · reports | FQ4’26: rev $90.0bn +18%, Azure +43%. CY2026 capex ~$175bn. Closed 23 Sep $500.59, +0.52% — the only large hyperscaler up |
| VRT | 2 Sep · M&A | UtilityInnovation Group for ~$1.45bn cash plus up to $1.15bn earnout; King Environmental Services agreed. Closed 23 Sep $248.78, −1.85% |
| GEV | 16 Sep · MS conference | CEO: backlog $176bn at Q2, $200bn possible very early 2027 (Morgan Stanley Laguna remark). Closed 23 Sep $951.82, +0.16% |
| NET | 9 Sep · product | OpenAI-model vulnerability service. Closed 23 Sep $352.33, −0.19%. Q3 expected ~29 Oct (aggregator) |
| SaaS & enterprise software | ||
| NOW | 22 Jul · Q2’26 | New today (price only). Subscription revenue growth 24–25%; AI ACV $1bn. Closed 23 Sep $140.78, +2.76%. Q3 expected ~28 Oct (aggregator) |
| CRM | 16 Sep · investor day | FY2030 revenue >$63bn incl. Informatica; Q3 cRPO guide 14% ex-acquisitions. Closed 23 Sep $237.58, +1.84% |
| ADBE | 22 Sep · 10-Q | Q3 (to 28 Aug): rev $6.76bn; RPO ~$22.16bn; buyback $2.25bn in quarter, $24.55bn authorisation left; 9M operating cash flow $7.646bn; $70m goodwill impairment in Q2. FY guide $26.576–26.626bn |
| MDB | 1 Sep · FQ2’27 | Rev ~$688m +30%. Investor day 29 Sep |
| SNOW | 2 Sep · FQ2’27 | Product revenue $1.49bn +37%; FY product revenue outlook ~$6.07bn |
| PANW | 1 Sep · FQ4/FY26 | Q4 rev $3.41bn +34%; NGS ARR $9.10bn +63%; FY27 guide $14.10–14.20bn |
| CRWD | 14 Sep · Fal.Con | FQ3 guide rev $1.523–1.529bn; Google Cloud partnership announced at Fal.Con |
| WDAY | Sep · reports | Reported Silver Lake take-private talks; $4bn buyback. Analyst day 13 Oct (unconfirmed) |
| DDOG | 6 Aug · Q2’26 | Rev ~$1.12bn +36% |
| SAP | 8 Sep · press | Bloomberg: supervisory board members believe SAP needs an AI breakthrough within months |
| HUBS | — | |
| Ads & adtech | ||
| META | 23 Sep · Connect | New today. Meta VR Glasses $1,299, ~100g, tethered puck, spring 2027; Ray-Ban Meta Gen 3 $449; Ray-Ban Meta Audio $349 ships 13 Oct; Muse Charm keychain ships December; 100+ styles by end-2026; holographic Codec-Avatar calls demoed. Meta AI rebranded Muse; reportedly 2.8m downloads in 12 days (not company-published). JPMorgan target $920, Citizens $885. Q2’26: rev $60.801bn +28%. Call only: 2026 capex $130–145bn. Closed 23 Sep $744.10, +1.02%; pre-market $730.00, −1.89% |
| NFLX | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | Named in Goldman’s “consumer inertia” basket. 18 Sep: Wells Fargo Underweight, target $57. Closed 23 Sep $71.36, −1.11%; ~−20% YTD. Q3 results 20 Oct, 17:01 BRT (company-confirmed 14 Sep) |
| TTD | 18 Sep · DEF 14A | Special meeting 19 Oct to reprice options over up to 15,582,540 shares. S&P 500 removal flows |
| ZETA | 8–9 Sep · conferences | 2025 net revenue retention 120%; average deal size up 40% |
| ROKU | 17 Sep · 425 | DOJ Second Request on the $22bn Fox acquisition |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | ||
| BKNG | 22 Sep · Goldman basket | New today (price only). Second day in the agent-disruption trade. 9 Sep: EU General Court upheld veto of the €1.63bn eTraveli deal. Closed 23 Sep $155.90, −5.07% — largest fall on the coverage list; 52-week low $150.14 |
| SHOP | 21 Sep · Meta tie-up | New today (price only). Muse agent checkout through Shop Pay; no terms disclosed. AI-referred traffic tripled y/y in Q2. Closed 23 Sep $142.34, −3.66%, giving back about half the two-day gain |
| WMT | 16 Sep · Form 25 | Delisting notice for a debt series (no equity effect). Partners with Google and OpenAI on agents rather than blocking them |
| ABNB | 8 Sep · session | Upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James. Q2’26 revenue $3.6bn +17% |
| UBER | 21 Sep · NYSE CERT | NYSE listing certification (debt series). 17 Sep: sold 29,369,611 Aurora shares at $6.205 |
| Hardware & devices | ||
| AAPL | 18 Sep · launch | iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max on sale from 18 Sep at $1,199/$1,299. iPhone Duo pre-orders 16 Oct. Closed 23 Sep $337.02, −0.80%; market cap approaching $5trn |
| DELL | 21 Sep · HP 8-K | Repays $1,750m due 1 Oct. FQ2’27: rev $47.0bn +58%; AI orders $60.9bn; backlog $95.0bn. Closed 23 Sep $549.83, +0.17% |
| CSCO | 9 Sep | Middle East AI partnership with AMD reported |
| Space & mobility | ||
| SPCX | 23 Sep · Form 144 | New today. COO Gwynne Shotwell filed to sell ~$52m of stock. Up to 328.4m shares unlock today, 24 Sep; further tranches 9 and 24 Oct and 8 Dec; Musk’s >6bn shares locked to June 2027. Starship Flight 14 NET 28 Sep. Revenue (ttm) $23.04bn +121.9%; net income −$8.89bn. Closed 23 Sep $148.36, −4.11% |
| TSLA | 12 Sep · event | Roadster reveal 1 Oct, Waco; reservations reopened at a $50,000 deposit. Q2’26: rev $28.24bn, deliveries 480,126, FCF −$1.09bn. Closed 23 Sep $380.12, +0.32% |
On the calendar
- Thu 24 SepSpaceX lock-up tranche: up to 328.4m shares become saleable. Costco reports FQ4’26 after the close, call 18:00 BRT (17:00 ET) — not in the coverage universe, but the print that trips the gate on her staged Costco study.
- Mon 28 Sep, 09:15 BRTStarship Flight 14, NET (08:15 EDT), pending regulatory approval.
- Tue 29 SepMongoDB investor day, New York. OpenAI DevDay, San Francisco.
- Wed 30 Sep, 17:30 BRTMicron fiscal fourth quarter and full fiscal 2026 (call 14:30 Mountain, company-confirmed). Guide was $50.0bn ±$1.0bn at ~86% gross margin. Micron’s FY2026 is still unreported, so anything gating on it stays blocked until this print.
- Thu 1 OctDell’s $1.75bn of notes mature. Korea full-month September export data due around this date.
- Thu 1 Oct, 22:30 BRTTesla Roadster reveal, Waco, Texas (20:30 CDT).
- Tue 6 OctMarvell investor day.
- Thu 8 Oct, 02:30 BRTTSMC September monthly sales (13:30 Taipei). Completes 3Q26 against the $44.6–45.8bn guide.
- Fri 9 OctNext SpaceX lock-up tranche.
- Tue 13 OctWorkday financial analyst day, per aggregator reports; not confirmed on Workday’s site.
- Wed 14 OctASML third-quarter 2026 results, per data-provider listings — not yet on ASML’s own financial calendar.
- Thu 15 OctTSMC third-quarter 2026 results, 14:00–15:30 Taipei — now confirmed on TSMC’s own investor calendar.
- Fri 16 OctiPhone Duo pre-orders open.
- Mon 19 Oct, 17:00 BRTThe Trade Desk special meeting on the option repricing (13:00 PT). Broadcom’s note exchange offer expires the same day.
- Tue 20 OctNetflix third-quarter 2026 results, 17:01 BRT release (13:01 PT), video Q&A 17:45 BRT — company-confirmed. Texas Instruments third quarter the same day, after the close, per aggregators only.
- Wed 21 OctLam Research fiscal 1Q27, per aggregators; not on Lam’s own calendar.
- Thu 22 OctIntel third quarter, per aggregators; not yet company-announced.
- Sat 24 OctThird SpaceX lock-up tranche.
- Sun 25 – Wed 28 OctOracle AI World, Las Vegas. A reported analyst day on 28 Oct is not yet confirmed on Oracle’s site.
- Wed 28 Oct (est.)Megacap cluster, all aggregator estimates, none company-announced: ServiceNow, Meta, Microsoft (FY1Q27), KLA (FY1Q27) and possibly Alphabet, which other aggregators put on 4 Nov.
- Thu 29 Oct (est.)Cloudflare third quarter; Apple fiscal fourth quarter and full fiscal 2026. Both aggregator dates.
- Tue 3 Nov (est.)AMD third quarter, per aggregators.
- Wed 4 Nov, 17:00 BRTKLA annual meeting (12:00 PST), Milpitas, per the proxy filed 22 Sep.
- Sun 1 NovUS daylight saving ends. From Monday 2 November the US open moves to 11:30 BRT.
Of the twenty-odd earnings dates we checked, only four are company-confirmed: Micron (30 Sep), TSMC (15 Oct), Netflix (20 Oct) and Costco (24 Sep). Everything marked (est.) is an aggregator date and several conflict outright — Nvidia is given as both 17 and 25 November, Alphabet as both 28 October and 4 November, CoreWeave as both 5 and 16 November. Do not hard-code any of them; most convert to confirmed dates in early-to-mid October when the companies issue their “sets the date” releases. Beyond this window: Nvidia FY3Q27 and Snowflake FY3Q27 in late November, Broadcom FY4Q26 on 9 December, Oracle FY2Q27 around 10 December.
Story worth owning
Who is actually holding the paper: the build-out’s debt does not sit where the capex does
Yesterday produced two facts that nobody has put in the same sentence. Oracle guides to $90–95bn of capex and carries a $664bn order book — and roughly $18bn of loans on a data centre it leases are quoted at 89–91 cents. Alphabet guides to $195–205bn and funded part of it with $84.75bn of equity in June. CoreWeave, the most levered name on the list, rose on the day the 10-year hit a 19-year high, because its convertible is already priced and termed out to 2033. Three companies, three completely different answers to the same question, and the market repriced all three in one session.
The analysis nobody independent has published: build a single table that separates, for each name in the build-out, who bears the capital cost from who books the capex. Columns for on-balance-sheet capex; finance and operating lease commitments; customer prepayments; third-party-funded campuses leased in; debt issued; equity issued. The public capex bar chart — the one in this brief, and every one like it — measures only the first column, and Oracle’s own disclosure shows why that is misleading: $28.5bn of gross quarterly capex against an $18.0bn net cash outlay. The other $10.5bn is someone else’s balance sheet. The testable claim: the names whose bars look smallest are not spending less, they are financing more of it off their own books, and the marks on that off-book paper — not the headline capex number — are the leading indicator for the cycle. Her Oracle, CoreWeave, Google and Anthropic studies already hold the lease and prepayment disclosures needed to build it. The aggregate to test it against: incremental debt rose from 9% of hyperscaler capex in FY24 to 32% in the twelve months to June 2026, with lease commitments across the five at roughly $820bn.
Sources
- 10-year Treasury yield hits 5.1% for first time in 19 years, CNN Business, 23 Sep 2026
- US Treasury Five-Year Yields Breach 5% for First Time Since 2007, Bloomberg, 23 Sep 2026
- 10-year Treasury yield rockets to 19-year high. Here’s what’s driving the spike, CNBC, 23 Sep 2026
- Stock Market Today: Nasdaq, Russell 2000 sink as 5-year Treasury hits 5% for first time since 2007, TheStreet, 23 Sep 2026
- Market Review: September 23, 2026, Investrade, 23 Sep 2026
- 10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 as market prices in another Fed rate hike, Yahoo Finance, 23 Sep 2026
- Qualcomm confirms TSMC makes both new 2nm Snapdragon chips, Sammy Fans, 23 Sep 2026
- Everything announced at Meta Connect 2026, Engadget, 23 Sep 2026
- Zuckerberg unveils $1,299 Meta VR Glasses and the Muse AI agent, CNBC, 23 Sep 2026
- CoreWeave Form 8-K, Ex-99.1: pricing of upsized $3.7bn convertible notes, SEC EDGAR, 18 Sep 2026
- Micron fiscal third-quarter 2026 results press release, SEC EDGAR, 24 Jun 2026
- TSMC financial calendar: third-quarter 2026 results, 15 October, TSMC Investor Relations, accessed 24 Sep 2026
- Netflix sets third-quarter 2026 earnings date, Netflix Investor Relations, 14 Sep 2026
- Costco fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings call, 24 September, Costco Investor Relations, accessed 24 Sep 2026
- Snapdragon Leads the Agentic AI Age with Two of the World’s Fastest Mobile SoCs, Qualcomm (company release), Sep 2026
- Qualcomm announces the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6, 9to5Google, 22 Sep 2026
- Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit Debuts Dual 2nm Chips, TechTimes, 23 Sep 2026
- Oracle Form 8-K, Ex-99.1: first-quarter fiscal 2027 results, SEC EDGAR, filed Sep 2026
- Oracle Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2026, SEC EDGAR, filed Sep 2026
- Oracle’s $18 Billion Data Center Debt Under Pressure, FT Reports, Reuters (via US News), 18 Sep 2026
- Oracle plans to again cut thousands of jobs to free up AI data center cash flow, Data Center Dynamics, Sep 2026
- Oracle plans another round of layoffs before September, TheStreet, Sep 2026
- Meta Connect 2026 recap: Meta VR Glasses, Muse Charm, Ray-Ban Meta gen 3, Tom’s Guide, 23 Sep 2026
- Meta Connect 2026 live blog: Zuckerberg’s keynote on AI glasses and VR, Engadget, 23 Sep 2026
- Alphabet Stock Dips: Here’s What You Need To Know, Benzinga, 23 Sep 2026
- Alphabet stock falls 3.73 percent at the close, ad-hoc-news, 23 Sep 2026
- SpaceX Stock Slips Ahead of 328M-Share Unlock, TipRanks, Sep 2026
- SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell files to sell $52M of shares (Form 144), Tesla Oracle, 23 Sep 2026
- SpaceX Targets Monday, Sept. 28 for Starship Flight 14, Tesla North, 23 Sep 2026
- Hyperscalers Tap External Financing as AI Capex Outruns Cash Flow, FactSet Insight, 23 Jul 2026
- AI Buildout Fuels Hyperscaler Bond Issuance and Credit Spread Volatility, Sage Advisory, 2026
- Alphabet earnings: Q2 revenue beats, stock sinks on 2026 capex hike, CNBC, 22 Jul 2026
- Micron Technology to Report Fiscal Fourth Quarter Results on September 30, 2026, Micron (GlobeNewswire), 26 Aug 2026
- TSMC Lifts 2026 Capex Outlook as AI Demand Stays Strong, Yahoo Finance, Jul 2026
- CoreWeave upsizes convertible debt offering to $3.7B, Yahoo Finance, 18 Sep 2026
- Samsung, SK hynix, Micron Face U.S. Class-Action Lawsuit Over Alleged DRAM Supply Manipulation, TrendForce, 29 Jun 2026
- Closing and pre-market prices for all covered names, stockanalysis.com, 23–24 Sep 2026
- What Higher Interest Rates Mean for Caterpillar, GE Vernova, and Vertiv, Motley Fool, 21 Sep 2026
A separate fact-check pass ran over this brief before publication and its corrections have been applied; what it confirmed, and what it did not reach, is set out in the “Where sources disagree” box. Beyond that, figures are as reported by the sources listed and have not been independently verified against filings except where a SEC document is cited directly. Prices are last-sale data from a single vendor and may differ from official exchange prints; where vendors disagree the alternatives are shown in the “Where sources disagree” box. Guidance figures are drawn largely from earnings-call statements rather than filed documents, and capex definitions are not comparable across companies. Reported third-party figures — Muse download counts, loan quotes, unconfirmed calendar dates — are flagged as such in the text.
This is an internal research brief prepared for CoreValue Research. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and no part of it should be relied on as such.
Generated 24 September 2026, 07:00 BRT · coverage universe read from coverage.json (50 names, updated 2026-09-01).
