CoreValue Research · Coverage Brief
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 07:00 BRT · US open in 3h30m (10:30 BRT — US Eastern is on daylight time until 1 November)
The one thing
NVIDIA reports fiscal Q2 2027 after the US close, and it is not reporting alone: Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Synopsys and HP all print into the same window. Management guided to $91.0bn ±2% with a 75.0% non-GAAP gross margin, and that guide assumes zero Data Center compute revenue from China. Sell-side consensus sits just above the midpoint at roughly $92bn and $2.09 of adjusted EPS — against $46.74bn and $1.05 in the year-ago quarter.
The setup matters more than the number. Nvidia fell for seven straight sessions from 14 to 24 August, $225.30 to $208.48 (−7.5%) — its longest streak since 2022 — then snapped it on Tuesday, closing $213.05, +2.19%. Options are pricing roughly $280bn of market value moving on the print. With a guide that already excludes China and a Street that has spent July and August alternately dumping and buying the AI complex, the variable tonight is not the beat; it is whether the October-quarter guide is large enough to keep validating the $720–745bn of 2026 hyperscaler capex sitting downstream of it.
Sector pulse — covered names with material news
| Semis & equipment (16 names) | 4 | ●●●● | NVDA, MRVL, MU, ARM |
| Cloud & AI infrastructure (8 names) | 1 | ● | ORCL |
| SaaS & enterprise software (11 names) | 2 | ●● | CRM, CRWD — both print tonight |
| Ads & adtech (5 names) | 3 | ●●● | META, TTD, NFLX |
| Consumer platforms & commerce (5 names) | 0 | — | quiet |
| Hardware & devices (3 names) | 2 | ●● | AAPL, CSCO |
12 of 48 covered names moved on something real in the last 48 hours. Synopsys and HP also report tonight; SNPS is in coverage, HPQ is not.
Overnight & last session
Semis & equipment
Nvidia prints FQ2 FY27 tonight with China stripped out of the guide NVDA
Release after the US close; call 18:00 BRT (17:00 ET)
The quarter ended 26 July 2026. Guidance set in May was $91.0bn ±2% on 74.9% GAAP / 75.0% non-GAAP gross margin, explicitly assuming no Data Center compute revenue from China. The comparison base is FQ1 FY27, reported 20 May: record revenue of $81.6bn (+85% y/y), Data Center $75.2bn (+92% y/y), non-GAAP EPS $1.87, with an $80bn buyback authorisation added and the dividend lifted from $0.01 to $0.25. Pre-market this morning NVDA traded near $211.00, −0.96%.
The read: the number to model is not revenue, it is the China wedge. KeyBanc’s estimate is that licensed China shipments would add $2–3bn a quarter if approvals land — roughly 3% of the guide, but nearly all of it incremental margin. Your NVIDIA initiation already flags that the master workbook labels quarters on two bases; the same discipline applies here, because a guide that includes China for the October quarter is not comparable to one that excludes it. Model the October guide twice and publish both.
Marvell into tomorrow’s print carrying a $120bn Google warrant MRVL
25 Aug 2026 · reports 27 Aug after the close
Marvell rose +6.7% on Tuesday as Susquehanna lifted its target to $265 and Rosenblatt to $300 on optical-interconnect strength. Company guidance for FQ2 FY27 is $2.70bn ±5% of revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $0.93 ±$0.05. The larger fact is a week old: Marvell expanded its custom-silicon agreement with Google — the commercial agreement was signed 29 July, the warrant issued 18 August, and the news broke on the 19th. Google holds a warrant over 58,970,907 shares at $206.58 — about $12.2bn — vesting in 240 tranches, one for every $500m Google buys, running from FQ3 FY27 and exercisable to 18 August 2033. Shares closed +10% at $237.27 on announcement.
The read: 240 × $500m = $120bn, and that is the number the press ran with — but it is a warrant schedule, not a contract, and Marvell only books revenue tranche by tranche. This is vendor equity, the mirror image of Nvidia’s investments in its own customers: the supplier hands the buyer equity upside in exchange for volume. It belongs in the same frame as Nvidia’s $500bn financing platforms below. A short piece pricing the warrant’s dilution against the revenue it is meant to buy — at what cumulative purchase level does Google’s stake become value-destructive for existing holders? — is arithmetic nobody independent has published.
Memory took the worst of Monday’s selloff, then bounced MU
24–25 Aug 2026
Micron closed Monday at $911.27, down about 6% and the weakest of a broad semiconductor selloff into Nvidia’s print; Broadcom fell 2.6% the same session and Samsung dropped ~9% in Seoul after a shareholder-return plan disappointed. There was no company-specific catalyst — the Netlist DDR5 actions naming Micron date from 12 August. Micron recovered +2.5% on Tuesday. Context: FY2026 capex guidance sits near $27bn, and industry reporting has 2027 DRAM and HBM capacity substantially pre-sold across Micron, Samsung and SK hynix.
The read: a 6% single-day move on no news, in a name whose 2026 output is contracted on both price and volume, is positioning, not fundamentals — and it is the cleanest evidence yet that the memory trade has become a beta expression of the Nvidia trade. That is a testable claim: run MU’s daily returns against NVDA’s over 2026 and see when the correlation regime shifted. If it broke around the HBM sell-out announcements, the market is now paying Micron for Nvidia’s demand rather than for its own contracted book.
Arm target raised to $272 on a second wave of server CPU demand ARM
25 Aug 2026
Raymond James lifted Arm to a $272 target from $244, Outperform, arguing agentic AI drives a second server-CPU cycle. The supporting figures cited: FQ1 revenue +22% to a record $1.29bn, data-centre royalties more than doubling, and disclosed AGI CPU customer demand above $2bn across FY2027–28. The stock closed $241.56, +2.3%.
The read: your Arm initiation was written from filings because the institutional deck was a zero-byte file — which means you already have the only clean royalty-rate build in your coverage. Use it. The bull case here rests entirely on royalty rate expansion in data centre, not unit growth, and Arm’s March fiscal year-end means FY2027–28 demand commentary spans calendar 2026–28. That mismatch is exactly the kind of thing the sell-side glosses and you can price.
Cloud & AI infrastructure
Citi opens a positive catalyst watch on Oracle after a >50% drawdown ORCL
26 Aug 2026
Citi’s Tyler Radke reiterated Buy with a $330 target, calling the 30–40 day, greater-than-50% decline a “four to five standard deviation” dislocation, and contrasting the $85bn of sequential backlog Oracle added in the May quarter with roughly $9bn across the neoclouds. Oracle closed Tuesday at $144.76 and opened higher this morning. The backdrop: FY2026 closed with RPO of $638bn (+363% y/y) and OCI revenue +93% to $5.8bn in Q4 — but S&P cut Oracle to BBB− on 9 July, one notch above high yield, citing leverage heading to the mid-4x area in FY2027, negative free cash flow, and the concentration of roughly half that RPO in a single customer, OpenAI.
The read: a stock that halves while its backlog triples is not a valuation argument, it is a collection argument — the market has stopped paying for RPO and started asking who funds the gap between signing and cash. That is the single most publishable chart in your coverage right now: Oracle’s RPO against its cumulative free cash flow deficit, with the OpenAI share of RPO shaded. You already hold the Oracle master file.
SaaS & enterprise software
Salesforce and CrowdStrike both report into the Nvidia window CRM CRWD
Both after the US close today; CRWD call 18:00 BRT (17:00 ET)
Salesforce reports FQ2 FY27 and CrowdStrike FQ2 FY27 (quarter ended 31 July) on the same evening as Nvidia — meaning two of your three unfinished study spines print while the tape is watching something else. Neither had news of its own in the last 48 hours.
The read: this is a scheduling gift. Software prints released into a Nvidia evening get one headline and no scrutiny, which is when mispricing happens — and both of these have known measurement traps you have already documented. CrowdStrike restates its non-GAAP P&L between decks, and its SaaS KPI block has carried forecast values where actuals belong; Salesforce files FY2017 on two bases and its segment estimate columns are empty. Whatever the print says tonight, the comparable is the one you have to rebuild by hand.
Ads & adtech
Meta settles the state youth-addiction case on the eve of a verdict META
26 Aug 2026
Meta agreed to settle claims brought by a bipartisan coalition of state attorneys general, days into a trial before Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers that began 18 August. Payments run over roughly ten years. The non-monetary terms are the substantive part: a default two-hour daily use cap for under-18s (parent-removable), overnight notification blocking, hidden like counts for minors, a non-personalised feed option, a ban on cosmetic-surgery filters, and deletion of under-13 accounts. Meta denied wrongdoing. The stock traded up roughly +1.7% intraday.
The read: the cash is a rounding error against Meta’s $130–145bn of 2026 capex. The product terms are not. A default two-hour cap and overnight notification blocking for under-18s is a direct cut to the engagement input that drives impressions, and Meta does not disclose minor-user engagement separately. Size it from the outside: US teen share of Meta’s DAU × US ARPU × the plausible engagement haircut, and you get a revenue-at-risk band nobody has published. That is a one-chart post.
The Trade Desk files a mixed shelf after a weak quarter TTD
24 Aug 2026
The Trade Desk registered Class A common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and units for sale from time to time. Size and terms are undisclosed and any actual offering would need a prospectus supplement. Shares fell about 2.1% after hours to $12.99. The company held roughly $1.12bn of cash and equivalents at 30 June.
The read: a shelf is optionality, not an offering — but a company with $1.1bn of cash and a stock at $13 registering debt and preferred and warrants is telling you which instruments it thinks it might need. In an adtech tape where the independent DSP thesis is under real pressure from retail media and walled-garden AI targeting, the interesting question is not dilution risk, it is what a preferred issue would imply about the board’s view of the equity. Worth a line in your ads coverage, not a piece of its own.
Wolfe lifts Netflix to $95, calling weak 2Q engagement a scheduling artefact NFLX
25 Aug 2026
Wolfe Research’s Peter Supino raised his target to $95 from $84, Outperform, arguing that soft second-quarter subscriber and engagement figures reflected content scheduling rather than demand, based on an analysis of viewing-history data. The stock traded up about 3% to $82.27.
The read: your Netflix initiation already found that the master workbook’s membership rows run past the last actual disclosure (4Q24) — which is precisely why an argument about “engagement” is unfalsifiable from the filings. Netflix stopped giving the market the series that would settle this. The publishable angle is meta: chart what Netflix disclosed quarterly in 2019 against what it discloses now, and show how much of the current bull case rests on third-party panel data. Readers of a research site will pay attention to who controls the evidence.
Consumer platforms & commerce
Quiet. No material news across ABNB, BKNG, UBER, SHOP or WMT in the last 48 hours; Walmart’s Q2 was 20 August.
Hardware & devices
Apple ships its first 2nm silicon — in a $899 Mac mini AAPL
25 Aug 2026
Apple launched a new Mac mini built on the M6, its first 2nm processor (12-core CPU, 12-core GPU, and a first-ever dual Neural Engine of two 16-core units), starting at $899; an M5 Pro configuration starts at $1,699. Alongside it came a new Mac Studio with M5 Max at $2,499 and M5 Ultra at $5,499, the latter with up to 512GB of unified memory at 1.2TB/s and a claimed 4.3× the peak AI compute of M3 Ultra. Pre-orders opened 25 August; first deliveries 22 September, with the 512GB configuration slipping to late October.
The read: this is a TSMC story wearing an Apple badge. Apple has put N2 into an $899 desktop before the iPhone — a break from a decade of iPhone-first node introductions, and a signal that N2 yields and volumes are good enough to spend on a low-ASP product. That reads straight through to TSMC’s 2026 revenue mix and its $60–64bn capex, and it is a data point your TSMC study can carry that no Apple note will. Also note the desktop line is now explicitly positioned at local AI inference — a small but real hedge against the assumption that all inference migrates to the cloud.
Cisco pulls Supermicro rack-scale systems into its NVIDIA AI factory stack CSCO
25 Aug 2026
Cisco added Supermicro liquid- and air-cooled high-density GPU systems to its validated Secure AI Factory with NVIDIA portfolio, sold through Cisco. Supported platforms include NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 and HGX Rubin NVL8, aimed at enterprise, neocloud and sovereign-cloud buyers, with integrated configurations available from October 2026. Supermicro rallied about 8% on the day.
The read: Cisco reselling someone else’s compute is an admission about where the margin is — Cisco is monetising the security and networking layer around GPUs it does not build. For your coverage the interesting read-through is to the sovereign-cloud buyer named in the release: that segment is the least analysed source of 2027 GPU demand and the one most exposed to export policy. Cisco’s fiscal year ends in July, so this lands in FQ1 FY27 — the first quarter where AI-adjacent orders should be separable in the filings.
Macro: July PCE holds at 3.3% core, real spending flat MACRO
26 Aug 2026, 09:30 BRT (08:30 ET)
The July PCE price index rose 0.2% on the month, holding the headline annual rate at 3.7%; core PCE also rose 0.2%, leaving the annual rate at 3.3%, unchanged from June and in line with forecasts. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose $1.3bn, which the BEA describes as less than 0.1% — essentially unchanged, after a 0.4% gain in June. Personal income rose 0.4% and the saving rate was 3.0%.
The read: in line on inflation, soft on spending — the combination that lets the Fed stay on hold without forcing a cut into a market that is already pricing AI capex at full confidence. For your coverage the transmission runs through the 10-year, which retreated to 4.64% on Tuesday: the AI build is now financed in the corporate bond market, so the discount rate is no longer just a valuation input for these names, it is a cost-of-goods input.
| Company | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Amazon CY2026 | $220bn |
| Alphabet CY2026 | $195–205bn |
| Microsoft CY2026, lease basis | ~$175bn |
| Meta CY2026 | $130–145bn |
| Oracle FY2027 · net | ~$70bn net / ~$90–95bn gross |
| TSMC CY2026 | $60–64bn |
| CoreWeave CY2026 | $35–39bn |
| Micron FY2026, ends Aug | ~$27bn |
| Intel CY2026 | >$20bn |
Where each name stands — last reported quarter
| Name | Period | Reported | Key figures from that print |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semis & equipment | |||
| NVIDIA NVDA | FQ1 FY27 | 20 May 26 | Revenue $81.6bn +85%; Data Center $75.2bn +92%; GAAP dil. EPS $2.39. FQ2 guide $91.0bn ±2%. Reports tonight. |
| Broadcom AVGO | FQ2 FY26 | 3 Jun 26 | Revenue $22.19bn +48%; AI semis $10.8bn +143%; Semi Solutions $15.0bn / Infra Software $7.2bn. FQ3 guide $29.4bn, AI semis ~$16bn. |
| AMD AMD | Q2 CY26 | 4 Aug 26 | Revenue $11.54bn +50%; Data Center $6.72bn +107%; Client $3.06bn +23%; non-GAAP GM 56%. |
| Qualcomm QCOM | FQ3 FY26 | 29 Jul 26 | Revenue $9.95bn −4%; QCT $8.50bn −5% (handsets $5.09bn −20%, auto $1.59bn +61%); non-GAAP EPS $2.21. |
| Micron MU | FQ3 FY26 | 24 Jun 26 | Revenue $41.46bn +346%; DRAM $31.3bn (76%); non-GAAP GM 84.9% (record); data center revenue $11.5bn, up more than sevenfold; FQ4 guide $50.0bn ±$1.0bn. Quarterly HBM revenue not disclosed. |
| Intel INTC | Q2 CY26 | 23 Jul 26 | Revenue $16.1bn +25%; Foundry $5.8bn +31% with a $(2.09)bn operating loss; GAAP EPS $(2.16), non-GAAP $0.42. |
| Texas Instruments TXN | Q2 CY26 | 22 Jul 26 | Revenue $5.46bn +23%; Analog $4.37bn +26%; operating margin 42.3% vs 35.1%; dil. EPS $2.14 +52%. |
| Marvell MRVL | FQ1 FY27 | 27 May 26 | Revenue $2.42bn +28%; data center $1.83bn +27% (76% of total); non-GAAP EPS $0.80. No standalone AI line. Reports 27 Aug. |
| Applied Materials AMAT | FQ3 FY26 | 13 Aug 26 | Revenue $9.12bn +25%; Semiconductor Systems $7.04bn +27% (record); non-GAAP EPS $3.50 +41%; FQ4 guide ~$10.25bn. |
| KLA KLAC | FQ4 FY26 | 28 Jul 26 | Revenue $3.66bn +15.2%; non-GAAP dil. EPS $1.05 post a 10-for-1 split effected 11 Jun 26; FQ1 guide $4.0bn ±$200m. |
| Lam Research LRCX | FQ4 FY26 | 29 Jul 26 | Revenue $6.72bn +30%; non-GAAP dil. EPS $1.82 (record); China 26% of revenue, down from 34%; Sep-qtr guide $8.10bn ±$400m. |
| ASML ASML | Q2 CY26 · EUR | 15 Jul 26 | Revenue €9,326.5m +21.3%; GM 54.0%; net income €2,917.6m +27%; 86 systems. FY26 raised to €43–45bn. Net bookings not disclosed. |
| Arm ARM | FQ1 FYE27 | 29 Jul 26 | Revenue $1.29bn +22% (record); royalty $715m +22%, licensing $574m +23%; non-GAAP op. margin 41.2% vs GAAP 7.1%. |
| TSMC TSM | Q2 CY26 · TWD | 16 Jul 26 | Revenue NT$1,270.4bn +36.0% (US$40.2bn); GM 67.7%; op. margin 60.3%; ≤7nm = 77% of wafer revenue (2nm 3% / 3nm 30% / 5nm 33%); HPC 66% of net revenue. |
| TSMC — monthly TSM | Jul 2026 | 10 Aug 26 | NT$467.58bn, +44.7% y/y, +5.6% m/m; Jan–Jul cumulative NT$2,872.06bn +37.0%. August print due ~10 Sep. |
| Cadence CDNS | Q2 CY26 | 27 Jul 26 | Revenue $1.58bn +24%; backlog $8.1bn (record); NTM RPO $4.2bn; non-GAAP dil. EPS $2.11 vs $1.65. |
| Synopsys SNPS | FQ2 FY26 | 27 May 26 | Revenue $2.28bn +41.9%; backlog $11bn; but non-GAAP dil. EPS fell to $3.35 from $3.67 and GAAP EPS was $0.09 — Ansys amortisation. Reports tonight. |
| Cloud & AI infrastructure | |||
| Amazon AMZN | Q2 CY26 | 30 Jul 26 | Revenue $200.6bn +20%; AWS $42.2bn +37% (fastest in 18 quarters); AWS operating income $16.6bn vs $10.2bn; total operating income $27.5bn +43%. |
| Microsoft MSFT | FQ4 FY26 | 29 Jul 26 | Revenue $90.0bn +18%; Microsoft Cloud $59.3bn +27%; Azure +43%; commercial RPO $678bn +84%; capex $41bn incl. finance leases ($35.8bn cash PP&E). |
| Alphabet GOOGL | Q2 CY26 | 22 Jul 26 | Revenue $119.8bn +24%; Google Cloud $24.77bn +82%; cloud backlog $514bn; Q2 capex $44.9bn; FY26 capex guide raised to $195–205bn. ~75% of revenue is still ads. |
| Oracle ORCL | FQ4 FY26 | 10 Jun 26 | Revenue $19.2bn +21%; RPO $638bn +363% (+$85bn q/q, including ~$75bn of prepayments and customer-supplied hardware); OCI $5.8bn +93%; FY26 capex $55.7bn; FY27 revenue guide $90bn. |
| Cloudflare NET | Q2 CY26 | 6 Aug 26 | Revenue $696.1m +36%; DBNRR 120% vs 114%; 4,698 customers >$100k +27% = 73% of revenue; GAAP GM 71.8%. |
| Vertiv VRT | Q2 CY26 | 29 Jul 26 | Revenue $3,274.3m +24%; adj. operating margin 22.6% (+410bp); adj. dil. EPS $1.52 +60%. Orders and backlog no longer disclosed. |
| GE Vernova GEV | Q2 CY26 | 22 Jul 26 | Revenue $11.1bn +22% reported / +12% organic; orders $24.2bn +88% organic; backlog $176bn vs $129bn; gas equipment backlog + slot reservations 116 GW, up from 100 GW. |
| CoreWeave CRWV | Q2 CY26 | 11 Aug 26 | Revenue $2,575m +112%; backlog $104.2bn +246%; Q2 capex $6,422m (cash PP&E — a slide-deck figure of $9.4bn is a different, gross basis); net loss $(626)m against net interest expense of $(640)m; total debt $35.07bn. FY26 revenue guide $12.4–13.2bn, capex raised to $35–39bn from $31–35bn. |
| SaaS & enterprise software | |||
| Salesforce CRM | FQ1 FY27 | 27 May 26 | Revenue $11.1bn +13%; cRPO $33.6bn +14%; non-GAAP op. margin 34.8%; Agentforce + Data 360 ARR ~$3.4bn. Reports tonight. |
| Adobe ADBE | FQ2 FY26 | 11 Jun 26 | Revenue $6.62bn +13%; total ending ARR $27.10bn +12.5%; RPO $22.27bn +13%; AI-first ARR >$500m. Digital Media / Digital Experience segmentation dropped. |
| ServiceNow NOW | Q2 CY26 | 22 Jul 26 | Revenue $3,987m +24%; subscription $3,877m +24.5%; cRPO $13.20bn +21%; 658 customers above $5m ACV. |
| Snowflake SNOW | FQ1 FY27 | 27 May 26 | Revenue $1.39bn +33%; product revenue $1.334bn +34%; NRR 126%; RPO $9.21bn +38%. |
| MongoDB MDB | FQ1 FY27 | 28 May 26 | Revenue $687.6m +25%; Atlas $512.5m +29% (~75% of subscription); 67,700+ customers; 2,895 above $100k ARR. |
| HubSpot HUBS | Q2 CY26 | 5 Aug 26 | Revenue $911.7m +20%; subscription $894.0m +20%; 306,446 customers +14%; ASRPC $11,800 +4%. |
| Datadog DDOG | Q2 CY26 | 6 Aug 26 | Revenue $1.12bn +36%; ~4,720 customers above $100k ARR +23%; FCF $279m. GAAP operating income $5m (~0%) against 23% non-GAAP. |
| Workday WDAY | FQ1 FY27 | 21 May 26 | Revenue $2.54bn +13.5%; subscription $2.35bn +14.3%; cRPO $8.81bn +15.5%; non-GAAP op. margin 31.8%. Reports 27 Aug. |
| SAP SAP | Q2 CY26 · EUR | 23 Jul 26 | Revenue €9.878bn +9% (+11% cc); cloud revenue €6.281bn +22%; current cloud backlog €22.9bn +27%. |
| Palo Alto Networks PANW | FQ3 FY26 | 2 Jun 26 | Revenue $3.0bn +31%; NGS ARR $8.1bn +60%; RPO $18.4bn +36%. CyberArk + Chronosphere contributed $388m of the quarter’s revenue — not organic. |
| CrowdStrike CRWD | FQ1 FY27 | 3 Jun 26 | Revenue $1.39bn +26%; ending ARR $5.51bn +24%; net-new ARR $255.8m (record Q1); FCF $468.5m = 34% margin; 4-for-1 split announced. Reports tonight. |
| Ads & adtech | |||
| Meta META | Q2 CY26 | 29 Jul 26 | Revenue $60,801m +28%; advertising $59,363m; Family DAP 3.60bn +3%; impressions +14%, price per ad +12%; FY26 capex guide $130–145bn. |
| Zeta Global ZETA | Q2 CY26 | 4 Aug 26 | Revenue $443m +44% reported but +28% organic; adj. EBITDA $92m, 20.7% margin; 197 super-scaled customers +17% at $1.8m ARPU. |
| The Trade Desk TTD | Q2 CY26 | 6 Aug 26 | Revenue $715m +3%; adj. EBITDA $241m, 34% margin; retention >95%; Netflix joined the marketplace and Samsung home-screen inventory opened. |
| Roku ROKU | Q2 CY26 | 6 Aug 26 | Revenue $1.35bn +22%; platform $1.22bn +25% (advertising $673m, subscriptions $548m); 37.9bn streaming hours; net income $164.2m. Household count discontinued since Q1 2025. |
| Netflix NFLX | Q2 CY26 | 16 Jul 26 | Revenue $12.56bn +13%; operating income $4.19bn at a 33.4% margin, down from 34.1%; FCF $1.53bn with FY26 guide ~$12.5bn. Membership counts not disclosed. |
| Consumer platforms & commerce | |||
| Airbnb ABNB | Q2 CY26 | 6 Aug 26 | Revenue $3.61bn +17%; Nights and Seats Booked 148.3m +10% (metric renamed); GBV $27.2bn +16%; ADR $184 +5%. |
| Booking Holdings BKNG | Q2 CY26 | 4 Aug 26 | Revenue $7.4bn +8%; room nights 325m +5%; gross bookings $51.0bn +9%. |
| Uber UBER | Q2 CY26 | 5 Aug 26 | Revenue $14.19bn +12% against gross bookings $58.02bn +24% — a wide as-reported divergence worth checking in the 10-Q; adj. EBITDA $2.82bn +33%; MAPCs 208m +16%. |
| Shopify SHOP | Q2 CY26 | 5 Aug 26 | Revenue $3,583m +34%; GMV $115,567m +32%; FCF $654m = 18% margin, up from 16%. |
| Walmart WMT | FQ2 FY27 | 20 Aug 26 | Revenue $187.9bn +5.9%; US comps +2.6% ex-fuel, transaction-led; global eCommerce +23%; global advertising +38% (Walmart Connect US +43% ex-VIZIO). |
| Hardware & devices | |||
| Apple AAPL | FQ3 FY26 | 30 Jul 26 | Revenue $109.4bn +16%; iPhone $54.3bn +22%; Services $30.7bn +12% (June-quarter record); GM 50.1% including ~2pp of tariff-refund benefit; dil. EPS $2.02 +29%. |
| Dell DELL | FQ1 FY27 | 28 May 26 | Revenue $43.8bn +88%; ISG $29.0bn +181%; AI-optimised server revenue $16.1bn +757%; AI orders booked $24.4bn; AI backlog $51.3bn; FY27 AI-server guide ~$60bn. Reports 1 Sep. |
| Cisco CSCO | FQ4 FY26 | 12 Aug 26 | Revenue $17.3bn +18%; product orders +35% (+25% ex-hyperscalers); AI infrastructure orders $4bn in the quarter and $9.3bn for FY26, ~4.5× FY25; RPO $46.7bn +7%. |
Every row was pulled today from the company’s own IR release or newswire — sec.gov refused every fetch attempt this morning (HTTP 403), so nothing here is EDGAR-direct. Four figures are secondary-sourced and should be confirmed before publication: Apple’s iPhone/Services split (Apple’s newsroom page renders narrative only), Cisco’s $32.1bn total ARR (a CFO call statement, absent from the press release), Walmart’s revenue dollar (Walmart states only percentages), and Alphabet’s cloud backlog and capex guidance (slide deck). Where a metric has been discontinued it is marked as such rather than filled from an older period. Fiscal labels follow each company’s own convention — NVIDIA’s fiscal year runs roughly a year ahead of the calendar, Arm’s ends in March, Apple’s in September, Cisco’s in July, and Dell, Salesforce, Snowflake, Workday, MongoDB and Marvell end in January or February. ASML reports in euros and TSMC in New Taiwan dollars.
On the calendar — times in BRT
| Wed 26 Aug | NVDA FQ2 FY27 after the close, call 18:00 · CRM FQ2 FY27 after the close · CRWD FQ2 FY27, call 18:00 · SNPS FQ3 FY26, call 18:00 · HPQ FQ3 FY26, webcast 18:30 (not in coverage) |
| Thu 27 Aug | MRVL FQ2 FY27 after the close · WDAY FQ2 FY27, call 17:30 |
| Tue 1 Sep | PANW FQ4/FY26, call 17:30 · DELL FQ2 FY27, call 17:30 · MDB FQ2 FY27 (secondary source only) |
| Wed 2 Sep | AVGO FQ3 FY26, call 18:00 — guided to ~$29.4bn revenue and ~$16bn of AI semiconductor revenue · SNOW FQ2 FY27, call 18:00 |
| ~Thu 10 Sep | TSM August monthly revenue, 02:30 (13:30 Taipei). July was NT$467.58bn, +5.6% m/m and +44.7% y/y — TSMC publishes around the 10th; exact date not yet confirmed |
| ~Thu 10 Sep | ADBE FQ3 FY26 after the close — third-party listing only, not confirmed by Adobe IR |
| Sep, TBC | ORCL FQ1 FY27 — date not confirmed; third-party sources split between 8 and 14 September, and Oracle has not issued its scheduling release |
| Late Sep, TBC | MU FQ4/FY26 — date not confirmed; sources show both 23 and 29 September |
Story worth owning
Who actually holds the residual risk in the AI build?
Three facts from the last three weeks, none of which has been drawn on the same page by anyone independent:
One. CoreWeave guided 2026 capex to $35–39bn against 2026 revenue guidance of $12.4–13.2bn. That is roughly 3× capex-to-revenue, and it means a company with $13bn of revenue will outspend Micron (~$27bn) and Intel (>$20bn) on capital this year. It carries $35.07bn of debt across recourse and non-recourse facilities, and in Q2 its net interest expense of $640m dwarfed its $49m operating loss — the interest bill, not the operations, is what produced the $626m net loss.
Two. On 10 August Nvidia signed MOUs with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to establish independent compute-financing platforms mobilising over $500bn of third-party capital — explicitly structured so the buildout does not land on Nvidia’s balance sheet. The same week, CoreWeave closed a $2.6bn delayed-draw term loan rated Ba2 / BB+, collateralised on customer contracts.
Three. On 19 August Marvell handed Google a warrant over ~59m shares vesting in 240 tranches tied to Google’s own purchases. Oracle funds its build partly with $75bn of customer prepayments and “bring your own hardware” arrangements. Intel raised $20bn of common equity at $95 in mid-August.
Every one of these is the same move: moving the marginal AI dollar off the buyer’s balance sheet. Debt, vendor equity, prepayments, asset-backed structures, third-party platforms, plain dilution. The market has a good handle on aggregate capex — $720–745bn across the big four in 2026 — and almost no map of the financing form, which is what determines who eats the loss if utilisation disappoints.
The piece: a single taxonomy chart. Rows are the financing instruments; columns are the covered names; each cell carries the disclosed amount and, critically, who holds the residual — shareholder, bondholder, private-credit fund, customer, or vendor. S&P counts about $225bn of hyperscaler-and-related bond issuance in 2026 to date, roughly a third of capex debt-financed; but bonds are the visible part. The prepayments, warrants and contract-backed loans are not, and they are where the concentration sits. You have the master files for almost every name in the grid. Nobody else does.
Sources
- NVIDIA — Financial Results for Q1 Fiscal 2027, NVIDIA Newsroom, 20 May 2026 (FQ1 revenue, Data Center, EPS, FQ2 guidance, China statement)
- Stock Market Today (Aug. 26, 2026), Yahoo Finance, 26 Aug 2026 (pre-market futures, NVDA $211.00)
- Nvidia Notches Longest Losing Streak Since 2022, 24/7 Wall St., 25 Aug 2026
- Stock Market News for Aug 25, 2026, Zacks via Yahoo Finance, 25 Aug 2026 (index closes, NVDA +2.19%, AMD, MU)
- Stock Market Midday, Aug. 25, The Motley Fool, 25 Aug 2026 (10-year at 4.64%)
- Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows core prices rose 3.3% annually in July, CNBC, 26 Aug 2026
- Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, 26 Aug 2026 (primary — real PCE “less than 0.1 percent”, income +0.4%, saving rate 3.0%)
- Consumers pulled back on spending in July, CNN Business, 26 Aug 2026
- Meta Agrees To $16.68 Billion Settlement In Social Media Addiction Trial, Forbes, 26 Aug 2026
- Meta settles social media addiction case with California, other states for $16.7 billion, CNBC, 26 Aug 2026
- Meta settles landmark state child harm claims for $18 billion, CNN Business, 26 Aug 2026 (the higher figure — see the flag above)
- Attorney General Bonta Secures Transformative $17 Billion Settlement with Meta, California Office of the Attorney General, 26 Aug 2026 (the 51-jurisdiction, contingent figure)
- Apple introduces M6 and M5 Ultra, Apple Newsroom, 25 Aug 2026 (source of the “Apple’s first 2-nanometer chip” claim)
- Apple unveils a more powerful Mac mini featuring the all-new M6 and M5 Pro, Apple Newsroom, 25 Aug 2026
- Apple introduces new Mac Studio with M5 Max and M5 Ultra, Apple Newsroom, 25 Aug 2026
- Cisco expands Secure AI Factory with NVIDIA to include Supermicro rack-scale systems, Cisco Newsroom, 25 Aug 2026
- Marvell’s stock pops 10% on AI chip deal that lets Google buy up to $12.2 billion in shares, CNBC, 19 Aug 2026
- Marvell Technology — Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, SEC EDGAR, 19 Aug 2026 (warrant terms)
- MRVL to Post Q2 Earnings: Time to Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?, Zacks via Yahoo Finance, 25 Aug 2026 (FQ2 guidance, broker targets — secondary)
- Micron Technology dips 6% amid semiconductor selloff, Seeking Alpha, 24 Aug 2026
- Arm rises as Raymond James raises target to $272, Yahoo Finance, 25 Aug 2026
- Oracle Stock Gains as Citi Says ORCL’s Historic Sell-Off Is an Opportunity, TipRanks, 26 Aug 2026
- Oracle stock shrugs off S&P downgrade to ‘BBB−’, but $160B debt shadow looms, Yahoo Finance, July 2026
- Oracle Q4 2026 Earnings: $638B Backlog Turns AI Cloud Growth into Funding Test, ERP Today, June 2026
- The Trade Desk stock falls after filing shelf prospectus, Investing.com, 24 Aug 2026
- Netflix is primed to move higher as viewer engagement improves, Wolfe Research says, CNBC, 25 Aug 2026
- CoreWeave Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results, CoreWeave IR, 11 Aug 2026 (revenue, net loss, interest expense, capex, debt, RPO)
- CoreWeave Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, Investing.com, 11 Aug 2026 (FY26 revenue and capex guidance)
- NVIDIA Partners With Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR, NVIDIA IR, 10 Aug 2026
- Intel Announces Upsize and Pricing of $20 Billion Common Stock Offering, Intel IR, 10 Aug 2026
- TSMC July 2026 Revenue Report, TSMC IR, 10 Aug 2026
- 2026 hyperscaler capex tops US$700bn, TMT Finance, 18 Aug 2026 (per-company capex guidance and financing mix)
- Microsoft jumps 8% as it boosts capital spending plans, CNBC, 29 Jul 2026 (useful-life change, ~$175bn vs $190bn)
- TSMC lifts 2026 capex to $60–64bn, TrendForce, 16 Jul 2026
- Intel raises 2026 capex outlook, Yahoo Finance, July 2026
- Micron CEO: full-year fiscal 2026 capex around $27 billion, Odaily, 2026
- AI data center debt climbs Wall Street credit risk lists, Yahoo Finance, 2026 ($225bn bond issuance, ~1/3 of capex debt-financed)
- Big Tech Credit Risk Flashes Urgent Warning Over AI Spending, Yahoo Finance, 28 Jul 2026 (CDS spreads: ORCL ~196.6bp, GOOGL record 67bp)
- Broadcom to Announce Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results, Broadcom IR
- CrowdStrike Announces Date of Fiscal Q2 2027 Financial Results, CrowdStrike IR
- Salesforce Announces Date of Q2 Fiscal 2027 Earnings Release, Salesforce IR
- Workday to Announce Fiscal 2027 Second Quarter Results on August 27, 2026, Workday Newsroom, 3 Aug 2026
- Palo Alto Networks to Announce FQ4/FY26 Results on September 1, 2026, Palo Alto Networks
- Dell Technologies to Hold Conference Call Sept. 1, Dell IR
- Snowflake to Announce Q2 Fiscal 2027 Results, Snowflake
- Synopsys Announces Earnings Release Date for Q3 FY2026, Synopsys, 22 Jul 2026
Figures are as reported by the sources cited above and captured on the morning of 26 August 2026. Every headline figure in this brief was put through a second verification pass against company IR releases, which corrected the CoreWeave debt total, the Marvell warrant date, the Oracle capex basis and the Meta settlement figure. They have nonetheless not been independently verified against SEC filings or audited financial statements — sec.gov refused every automated request this morning — and several are drawn from secondary summaries rather than primary releases; those are flagged in the text. Where sources disagree, every reading is shown rather than one being chosen silently. Intraday prices and percentage moves were captured before the US close and will have changed.
Timing note for future runs: the 3h30m gap to the US open holds only while US Eastern is on daylight time. From 1 November 2026 the open moves to 11:30 BRT and the gap becomes 4h30m; Brazil stays on UTC−3 year-round.
This brief is a research scan prepared for internal use at CoreValue Research. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and does not take account of any person’s financial circumstances.
