TSMC revenue scenarios to 2030
Projected revenue by year ($bn)
| Scenario | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 142 | 167 | 196 | 233 | 278 | 18.2% |
| Base | 148 | 180 | 220 | 272 | 338 | 23.0% |
| Bull | 153 | 193 | 246 | 316 | 409 | 27.8% |
Assumptions
| Segment | FY25 revenue | Op. margin | Bear | Base | Bull | σ measured |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center (HPC) | $70.5B | 47% | 24.7% | 30.0% | 35.3% | 21.3pp |
| Smartphone | $36.0B | 47% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.3pp |
| Automotive & IoT | $12.2B | 47% | 3.8% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 20.7pp |
| Other | $3.7B | 47% | 1.3% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 14.9pp |
Method
Each segment is compounded from its FY25 actual at a constant annual rate, and operating income applies a fixed margin per segment.
The base case is CoreValue Research's estimate. It is the analyst's own forecast
for each line, not an output of the range — everything below only
describes how far either side of it we draw the bear and the bull.
The width of the range is measured, not chosen. For each segment we take its
realised year-on-year growth over FY2021–FY2025 and compute the sample
standard deviation — how much that line's growth has actually varied, in percentage points. That
figure is the σ column, and it is printed unmodified so you can always check our arithmetic
or rebuild the range at any width you prefer.
Bear and bull are the base case minus and plus a quarter of that σ
(FY2021–FY2025). So a segment whose growth has historically swung by 20
percentage points is shown 5 points either side of its base case. We publish a deliberately
narrow band: a full standard deviation priced several of these segments at a multi-year decline,
which measures how violently a young industry has moved rather than describing a path we would
defend. Growth decelerating hard from an exceptional base is the risk we are willing to put our
name to; the industry ceasing to exist is not.
These are scenarios, not confidence intervals. The band is not a probability
statement, nothing here is calibrated to say the outcome falls inside it 70% or 90% of the time,
and a quarter of a standard deviation is a house convention rather than a statistical threshold.
It is a disciplined way of saying “this much variation is normal for this business”,
and it should be read alongside the assumptions rather than instead of them.
TSMC discloses revenue by platform but reports a single company gross profit, not profitability by platform. All four lines above therefore share one margin, which is the finest split the disclosure supports: FY2030 segment gross profit of US$191.6bn less company operating expense of US$30.2bn retains 84.2%, reproducing the forecast's own FY2030 operating income of US$161.4bn exactly. High Performance Computing almost certainly earns more than the Other line, and the data to separate them is not published. The forecast rests overwhelmingly on that one platform: Data Center revenue compounds at 30% a year from US$70.5bn to US$266.0bn, which would be 78% of FY2030 revenue against 58% today. Smartphone, the second line, is assumed to grow at 8%, roughly in line with the last five years.
Citation — CoreValue Research, “TSMC revenue scenarios to 2030”, model v2026.Q2, August 10, 2026. Base case: $338B revenue and $159B operating income in 2030, assuming Data Center (HPC) grows 30% a year, Smartphone grows 8% a year, Automotive & IoT grows 9% a year, Other grows 5% a year.