Models

Dell revenue scenarios to 2030

DELL · Data as of September 3, 2026 · Reviewed quarterly

Projected revenue by year ($bn)

Assumptions

Method

Each segment is compounded from its FY25 actual at a constant annual rate, and operating income applies a fixed margin per segment.

The base case is CoreValue Research's estimate. It is the analyst's own forecast for each line, not an output of the range — everything below only describes how far either side of it we draw the bear and the bull.

The width of the range is measured, not chosen. For each segment we take its realised year-on-year growth over FY2021-FY2026 and compute the sample standard deviation — how much that line's growth has actually varied, in percentage points. That figure is the σ column, and it is printed unmodified so you can always check our arithmetic or rebuild the range at any width you prefer.

Bear and bull are the base case minus and plus a quarter of that σ (FY2021-FY2026). So a segment whose growth has historically swung by 20 percentage points is shown 5 points either side of its base case. We publish a deliberately narrow band: a full standard deviation priced several of these segments at a multi-year decline, which measures how violently a young industry has moved rather than describing a path we would defend. Growth decelerating hard from an exceptional base is the risk we are willing to put our name to; the industry ceasing to exist is not.

These are scenarios, not confidence intervals. The band is not a probability statement, nothing here is calibrated to say the outcome falls inside it 70% or 90% of the time, and a quarter of a standard deviation is a house convention rather than a statistical threshold. It is a disciplined way of saying “this much variation is normal for this business”, and it should be read alongside the assumptions rather than instead of them.

Dell reports three operating segments, but only two carry a segment margin the model can drive. Infrastructure Solutions and Client Solutions are shown above; the third, the "Other businesses" and Corporate bucket — about US$1.7bn of shrinking revenue that also carries Dell's unallocated operating loss — is carried inside the build rather than left outside it, the same treatment AMD's Corporate line receives, because as a stand-alone segment it prints a meaningless margin of about minus 445%. The year labels are calendar years: Dell's fiscal year ends in late January, so the base year here is the fiscal year that closed on 30 January 2026, which the Financial Analysis pages call FY2026 and in which company revenue was US$113.5bn. The base case rests overwhelmingly on Infrastructure Solutions, the AI-optimised server line, compounding at 27% a year from US$60.8bn to US$200.2bn by FY2030, against Client Solutions at 5%. The published band is a quarter of a standard deviation of realised annual growth, measured over FY2021 to FY2026 — Infrastructure Solutions at 19.5 percentage points and Client Solutions at 14.4 — so the full-width range would be four times what is shown. Readers who want the full measured spread can rebuild it from the sigma column, which is printed unmodified.

Citation — CoreValue Research, “Dell revenue scenarios to 2030”, model v2026.Q2, September 3, 2026. Base case: $266B revenue and $28B operating income in 2030, assuming Infrastructure Solutions (ISG) grows 27% a year, Client Solutions (CSG) grows 5% a year.